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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • Cisco Systems, Inc. – Not A Profitable Place For Your Money Right Now

    Cisco Systems, Inc. - Not a Profitable Place for Your Money Right Now

    Cisco Systems, Inc. is not one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. The recent 20% pull-back says two things for me. First it is telling me that it is going down in the coming months. Second the little rally since mid-December is giving Investors a chance to get out in the coming few weeks or perhaps less.

    For several months I have said: Cisco could well (highly likely) be topping after a nice recovery since mid 2011. Caution is definitely Warranted. Nearly a 20% drop from its highs of July is telling me and I hope You a story. If, and I say "IF" - this late December rally is tepid, I would strongly consider Cash.

    My previously written articles on CSCO (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Cisco Systems, Inc. is available by clicking: (CSCO) I treat Cisco just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    This week's Commentary on - Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.32%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Cisco Systems, Inc. and other Networking Companies are tracking well. Although (CSCO) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. A little history for my Forecast for Cisco: in 2010 was clearly on target. It was for a Pull-Back from the March highs of $26 and stuck with it all the way down to $14. - some fifteen months later. March 2010 was three and one half years ago and Cisco is just recently recovered back to $26. I hope you will read the above with an appreciation of just what Accurate Forecasting can do for you and your portfolio. Forecasting with my Methodology can be both profitable and save you heartache, in a Company or General Market Bearish time frame. You might want to - Think About That - for perhaps better / more profitable management of your portfolio in the future.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth- Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may be lead to believe !

    If you own or are considering owning Networking Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below peers list). Cisco Systems, Inc. is currently strong Technically (back to the highs of early 2010 mentioned above) but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is Hold-Cash !

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are producing future declining projections. This coupled with an over-bought and over-valued General Stock Market does not make for a positive fundamental picture to investing into or to perhaps even hold.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The recent large (near-term) pull-back is offering strong support for my Bearish "Warning." A re-bound rally was in the making and is in progress - - the strength of which is telling me to advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." It is selling for $22.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.

    Please read my previous postings on Cisco: CSCO for accuracy of my forecasting.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (CSCO) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.

    URL for (20-years of) (CSCO): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSCO&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02768005019&a=311352737

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Telecom Equipment Industry Group that I focus on: (CSCO), (BRCD), (RVBD), (TIBX), (INFN), (EXTR), (QLGC), (ALVR), (XXIA), (ELX), (ALLT), (NTGR).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    CSCO, BRCD, RVBD, TIBX, INFN, EXTR, QLGC, ALVR, XXIA, ELX, ALLT, NTGR

    Apr 16 8:13 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Ford Motor Company – Back To Basics And Back To Holding Cash

    Ford Motor Company - Back to Basics and Back to Holding Cash

    Two Months Ago I Said: "Ford is among a number of Companies that are hanging in there with the Major Indices and greatly out-performing - them! My Fundamental - Valuations support this very well and is a vital component to enjoying consistent annual profits. However, this posting is beginning to tell me a more negative story. When a strong company has "flat" performance for several months, we ( me / you ) should definitely take note."

    That was "On the Button" and so is this: A rally is in progress and - IF - it is not very positive - - Cash - - is your next place to be.

    Currently it had taken the hit I Forecast but a rally is in place that will - Tell-All.

    My previously written articles on F (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance please see my below table as well as (my 5-Year Table) for Ford is available by clicking: (F). I treat Ford just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    Income & Growth Investors - Ford Motor Pays a: 3.16% Dividend

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Ford Motor Company and other Auto Manufacturing Companies are tracking well. (F) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been deadly accurate for Ford for a very long time. We are in the second rally since 2009 and that too should tell you something important about my Forecasting.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is very bright and only a major Bear Cycle within the General Market can change my mind ! Unfortunately a major Bear Market is in the Making. The effect of that last sentence is something I will keep you well appraised of in my flow of daily articles and in my Private Blog.

    If you own or are considering owning Automobile Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). Ford Motor Company is currently strong Technically. I have no reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore, in summer 2012 - I placed it on an Strong Bullish Forecast - "Alert."

    My Current Opinion is Hold !

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations for Ford remains strong but are producing cautionary declining projections.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), My Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently off its highs of $17+ selling at $16.. It is interesting to note that in early 2011 it was also at the $17. level and subsequently dropped to under $9. Ford is selling for $16.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ), my third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (F) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Ford Motor Company (F)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Ford Motor Company (F), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.

    URL for (20-years of) (F): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29958047832&a=300758177

    Selectivity

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Auto Manufacturing Industry Group that I focus on: (F), (GM), (HMC), (OTCPK:NSANY), (TSLA).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    F, GM, TM, HMC, NSANY, TSLA

    Tags: F, GM, TM, HMC, NSANY, TSLA
    Apr 16 8:09 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - Back To Where It Was In 2009 & 2011 – I Am Not Impressed

    Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - Back to Where it Was in 2009 & 2011 - I Am Not Impressed

    Goldman Sachs was consistently making new highs and supporting the Dow 30 - Industrials Index very well. As said in previous GS articles "My Indicators are breaking down like they did in 2009 and 2010. That means it is Topping, but don't Sell yet."

    Well, it is simple for me, GS has broken down and must be sold on the next bounce rally.

    My previously written articles on GS (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Goldman Sachs can be found below and is about 62% per year for the last 18 months.

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 1.42%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.

    Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Goldman Sachs. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

    Forecast w/ 2 Year Performance

    Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and other Technology Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (GS) is in a recovering Rally and not doing what most investor have expected. It is, however always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. The Company has supported my Forecasts for many years, so be prudent and careful at this time. My Forecast was to sell in early 2012 and I did. I did not come back in to Goldman Sachs - the fundamentals just did not support ownership.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth- Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Investment Services Companies, the securities are currently strong but that will change. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is currently very strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore, I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (GS) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are looking anemic again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company for a long-term Hold.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is fading from its highs at $180. Selling at $155. This current rally (Early 2012 to Date) will, like all other strong rallies terminate - hence I am on a close watch.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (GS) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to Invest Wisely. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) has taken some big hits over the years. Have a look.

    URL for (20-years of -(GS): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52480472217&a=330115299

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Semiconductor Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (GS), (MS), (SCHW), (ETFC), (AMTD), (PSEC), (CME), (NDAQ), (ICE). And, many more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    GS, MS, SCHW, ETFC, AMTD, PSEC, CME, NDAQ, ICE

    Tags: GS, MS, SCHW, ETFC, AMTD, PSEC, CME, NDAQ, ICE
    Apr 16 8:04 AM | Link | Comment!
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