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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • DuPont Company -- Strong And Charging But For How Long Is A Good Question - - That Is My Job

    DuPont Company -- Strong and Charging but for How Long is a Good Question - - That is My Job

    DuPont clearly is one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies in this time frame. It is on a Strong Hold but my Indicators are breaking down. The current rally is showing strength, but I have my longer-term fundamental and technical doubts about holding for the long-term. There is reason to monitor DuPont closely in the coming weeks.

    Making new highs is always impressive, so my watch can be relaxed at least for the coming few weeks.

    My Job: To Maximize your profits using conservative Companies and a conservative Methodology. I DO !

    My previously written articles on DD (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for DuPont can be found below and is about 38% per year for the past five years.

    (click to enlarge)

    Look at the Profits for DD - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    DuPont - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 years gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on DD. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My weekly study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Chemicals is complete and there is little support for notably higher prices in the making.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.64%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.

    Income and Growth Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Dupont. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Dupont Company and other Basic Materials Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (NYSE:DD) is in a recovering Rally and not doing what I have expected. The Company has supported my Forecasts for many years, so be prudent and careful at this time.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Chemical Companies, the securities have in recent month become both favorable and un-favorable. That is often a good indicator that further upside is waning. Dupont Company is currently relatively strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore, I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (DD) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are going down-hill. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company for a long-term Hold.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently near its highs of $68. This current rally (October 2012 to Date) will likely be coming to an end in the coming few weeks or less.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (DD) !

    Selectivity

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Chemical Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (DD), (NYSE:DOW), (NYSE:LYB), (NYSE:HUN), (NYSE:CE), (NYSE:PX), (NYSE:EMN).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    DD, DOW, LYB, HUN, CE, PX, EMN

    Tags: DD, DOW, LYB, HUN, CE, PX, EMN
    Jun 16 10:31 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Google, Inc. - If Your Growth Performance Is Not In This League It Should Be – BUT – Be Careful

    Google, Inc. - If Your Growth Performance is not in this League It Should Be - BUT - Be Careful

    Google, Inc. continued to make new highs that seemingly would last forever. The forever part is where most Investors make their mistakes. It has pulled back about one hundred (plus) points. That is nothing to set off major alarms but I suggest holding a tight reign. Profit taking is not Forecast for the foreseeable future. However, Caution is warranted.

    I add emphasis to the above.

    My previously written articles on GOOG (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Google, Inc. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:GOOG) . The below 54% per year profit I have averaged for several years - Ain't Bad! I treat Google just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    Look at the Profits for GOOG - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Google - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 years gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    (click to enlarge)

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on GOOG. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    My weekly study of all my High Profile Technology / Internet Companies says Caution is now worth all my effort.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    This week's Commentary on - Google, Inc. (GOOG) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.

    Growth Investors - As you know Google does not pay a Dividend

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Google, Inc. and other Internet Sector Companies are tracking well. Although Google, Inc. is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecast have been solid for almost 5 years now and that is a good feeling………

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think ! It is not all the bad either !

    If you own or are considering owning Internet Companies, the securities are a mixed bag. Google, Inc. is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial (very weak) Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is Hold with Caution !

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remain strong and positive with solid future upside projections. The problem is my Valuations are on the decline, first back up a bit and then back down or sideways. This translates into just one word I used above - "Caution."

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. A re-bound rally is in process - - the strength of which is excellent. Google did not move very well for almost three years (2010 thru mid 2012). Looking back helps in looking forward. Google is no longer selling near its highs of $608. it is selling for $550.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (GOOG) !

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Internet Industry Group that I focus on: (GOOG), (NASDAQ:FB), (NASDAQ:BIDU), (NASDAQ:YHOO), (NYSE:LNKD), (NASDAQ:YNDX), (NASDAQ:TRIP), (NASDAQ:AKAM), (NASDAQ:GRPN), (NASDAQ:IACI), (NYSE:YOKU), (NYSE:AOL), (NASDAQ:AWAY), (NYSE:YELP), (NASDAQ:SOHU).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    GOOG, FB, BIDU, YHOO, LNKD, YNDX, TRIP, AKAM, GRPN, IACI, YOKU, AOL, AWAY, YELP, SOHU

    Jun 16 9:42 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Income Investors – Only! - - 5-Year Performance - - June 16th. - Update

    Income Investors - Only! - - 5-Year Performance - - June 16th. - Update

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    I hope you can agree with the following two paragraphs:

    There is almost always a group of Companies and ETFs that are "In-Favor" for the "INCOME" Investor. Companies that will provide - Both - Good Dividend Income and Consistent Annual Growth.

    These Companies are not ready to Buy every day or even every week but definitely at Bullish Inflection Points as they occur throughout the year. (If you can understand the above - YOU will be a very profitable Investor)!

    Yes, I have read the "Book" and a couple hundred like it over the years. None of them, I said "none of them" ever impressed me with their advice. As a professor of finance and economics you would likely be surprised to know I believe there is a BIG difference between what the Damned "Books" offer the investing public and being in the trenches of actually profitable managing assets. I guess that is why I have never, in forty years, completed my Book. The Marketplace is just too Dynamic and Fickle and you need tools and experience that no Book or Newsletter can begin to provide.

    I suggest Senior and Retired Investors are getting plain old vanilla when you deserve to be getting a much better taste (performance) for your risk of investing your nest-egg. Yes, Income Investing has risk, but risk can be mitigated to almost zero if you use your head, are patient and are a disciplined Investor. I hope you will let me share with you how I get consistent annual results. (Please see my Table below).

    My Performance over these many years has been good to me and my Clients with few set-backs. The table below listing of ten (10) specific Companies is clearly strong performance but also prudently attained. My performance goes back to the late 1950s! Click here for that long-term record and narrative.

    Asset Allocation Model Performance

    You will want to review all four of my Asset Allocation Model Performance for a perspective of my focus on "results" for my Clients.

    * Income

    * Income & Growth

    * Growth

    * Aggressive Growth

    Their Performance is Posted Each Week (with great detail) in Rotation each Monday in My Personal Blog.

    Have a look, it is superior performance - yet conservative Asset Management - - Results - - Are You Satisfied With the "Results" you are Getting?

    How I Go About Producing Consistent Annual Profits for my Clients

    Well Forecasted and "In-Favor" Companies will always outperform in Bull Markets and sometimes hang in there in Bear Markets. I am a BIG believer in CASH, which is not often found with most Financial Advisors and Asset Managers. When my Forecast for a given Income Company suggests that is more prudent to Hold-Cash - that is where I go. Holding a descending security just has never made sense to me even when they pay a decent dividend!

    I like working / doing my analytics on Income Companies / ETFs and maintain a list of over 200 of them to monitor. The Table below will give you an idea of what can be expected from my providing you guidance and direction with your portfolios.

    Income Companies that are "In-Favor" are easy for me to identify and I make it a policy of always have at least a twenty or thirty in my "Income List" as possible / future Buys. That may be several months ahead but remember that is one of the primary reasons I Forecast. Oh, yes these Companies and ETFs can turn Bearish and when they do over the ensuing months they can hurt you Big-Time. And that is why I offer a 20-year Chart (for Perspective) in most all of my articles.

    When Inflection Points occur it is quite easy for me to identify those that will "greatly outperform" for that Rally or Pull-Back. This makes my work both enjoyable and fun, by following and frequently Forecasting those Companies that are on my "List."

    My on going objective is to identify changing trends with in my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group. With that in my pocket, I can make well prepared and informed investment decisions to Buy / Sell or even Short-Sale / Cover.

    Income Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Table w/ 5 Year Performance

    The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Decent Income Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog - there is no obligation. I do not manage Client accounts with less than $100,000 in the Clients Portfolio. There are exceptions. . .

    (click to enlarge)

    My management of "Income" Assets is unique. If I cannot identify a Company that is paying a decent dividend that has a Forecasted Upside, e.g. projected growth I Hold-Cash. Holding Cash presents a very low income flow but I believe that owning a Company that is paying a "decent" dividend during times when my Forecast is Bearish is definitely not following my logo. My logo is "Investing Wisely." There are very few times over the past 50 years that I have professionally managed the assets of my Clients that there was not some Companies to Hold.

    You will note that the 10 Companies in the below Table have Dividend Payments ranging from a low of about 1.50% to over 5.00%. I wish to stress that a few percentage points of Dividend Payments can be erased in just a day or two of trading. My, point which differs greatly from most Financial Analysts / Asset Managers is that - - If you are not holding a Company that is clearly Appreciating and appears to have the propensity to continue to Appreciate, you are going to substantially restrict your over-all profitability - - that means both disappointment and LOSSES!

    These are all conservative Companies but they historically they take the same "HITS" on the downside as other more growth oriented securities. This is my way of saying: Guidance and Direction in your "Income Portfolio" is equally as important in your "Growth Portfolio."

    Notes for Table:

    * You will alsonote in most of my Articles I use the words "Favorable" and "Un-Favorable - - I maintain just these two Asset Management Lists. ( please see the below "Report Card." )

    * Bullish ("Alerts" and Bearish "Warnings" are each subdivided into either - "Initial" - or - "Strong." The time-frame from my "Initial" to my "Strong" ("Alert" / "Warning") provides me sufficient lead time for selecting the currently most ("Favorable" & " Un-Favorable") e.g. PROFITABLE ( Bullish & Bearish ) Investment Choices. That time frame may be weeks or even a couple months!

    * Fundamental Valuation and Technical Analytics calculations are (quantitatively computed) and then translated by formula into a Rating (ranging from: ( 0 to 100 ). Just like in school: A's are 90 - 100 and F's are 59 - 0 and thus the Letter Grade.

    * Opinion is my on going strategy of Analytics to - Hold - an investment for as long as possible. Those - Holding Periods - prior to Selling or Covering are very strategic and effective. Alternatively, - Hold-Cash - is my investment strategy that demands that - - until I have both a General Market Bullish or Bearish Inflection Points coincident with the Industry Group and its component Company - I Hold CASH ! Yes, I " Cherry Pick " very carefully! Bullish (Buying / Selling) - or - Bearish (Shorting / Covering) - - Formal Recommendations or Positions Being Held are never provided Publicly, they are exclusively for my Clientele.

    * As an Ex-Professor of Finance & Economics I refer to my Securities Rating Procedures as a "Report Card" - - ( A's are for Buying and F's are for Shorting ) and anything in between is MUTE. My Report Cards for each Index / Company / ETF, etc. permits me to remain Focused on the Companies / ETFs with the highest probability for Profit!

    I am seeking new Clients and Consulting relationships. Please feel free to open an Email dialog. I hope you are interested.

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    SPY, QQQ, DIA, AET, CLF, COP, DUK, EXC, MO, NEM, PPL, SE, UNH

    Tags: SPY, QQQ, DIA, AET, CLF, COP, DUK, EXC, MO, NEM, PPL, SE, UNH
    Jun 16 9:32 AM | Link | Comment!
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