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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • Microsoft Corp. – Prudence Is Much Different From Greed – Caution Is Warranted

    Microsoft Corp. - Prudence is Much Different from Greed - Caution is Warranted

    Microsoft Corp. remains one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. My Indicators are breaking down and I am preaching "prudence."

    Microsoft is hanging in there very, very well. However, there is a possible Technical problem developing and Earnings are not all that impressive. So far - - just a word to the wise.

    The April rally for MSFT is non-existent and that is ominous. I hope you know the word ominous!

    My previously written articles on MSFT (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Microsoft can be found below and is nearly 20% per year for the last 5 years.

    Look at the Profits for MSFT - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Microsoft - has: a) gone relatively nowhere in 20 years - - SO - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on MSFT. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.80%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Microsoft Corp. and other Software Companies are tracking the Market well. (MSFT) remains in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. Unfortunately, I suggest it is beginning to tell a Bearish Story. . . My Forecasting of Microsoft over the years has been near perfect.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning a Software / etc. Companies, the securities have definitely become much less bullish than just six months ago. Mostly strong but like always you need to find the best through being very selective. Microsoft is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting - 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (MSFT) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated Earnings are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently selling off its highs of $41 . I am recommending much Caution.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (MSFT) !

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline & Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Software Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (MSFT), (ORCL), (SYMC), (CRM), (CDNS), (NUAN), (CA), (CPWR), (ADBE), (VMW), (ADSK), (BMC), (CTXS), (PAY), (CHKP), (NQ), (INTU), (SAP), (SWI), (FIRE), (RHT), (INFA), (NEON), (JIVE), (SREV), (PMTC), (CNQR), (CVLT). There are many, may more!

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    MSFT, ORCL, SYMC, CRM, CDNS, NUAN, CA, CPWR, ADBE, VMW, ADSK, BMC, CTXS, PAY, CHKP, NQ, INTU, SAP, SWI, FIRE, RHT, INFA, NEON, JIVE, SREV, PMTC, CNQR, CVLT

    May 29 3:17 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Starbucks Corp. – Coffee Beans Smell Good And So Are The Profits – Serious Caution Is NOW Warranted

    Starbucks Corp. - Coffee Beans Smell Good and so are the Profits - Serious Caution is NOW Warranted

    Starbucks is doing exactly what it should be doing - going UP. Since the beginning of the year it has had an ominous Pull-Back that WARRENTS CAUTION/

    Just so you know, when my Fundamental Valuations are super positive for a Company, the Technical or Charts ALWAYS support this kind of price movement - hence my Methodology of "Investing Wisely." It like all other Companies is vulnerable to Pull-Backs (check-out 2012 - - $61 to $42 that's about 33% and that is unacceptable asset management) and I am now / once again suggesting - Caution.

    This prolog is offered both as an encouragement at certain times as the "Cycles" ebb and flow and as a level of warning / caution. My job is to know the difference for my Clients.

    The current pull-back is ominous. $82. to $68. is a bunch.

    My previously written articles on SBUX (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Starbucks Corp. is available by clicking: (SBUX). I treat Starbucks just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    Look at the Profits for SBUX - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Starbux - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on SBUX. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 1.42%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Starbucks Corp. and other Restaurant Companies are tracking the Marketplace well. Although (SBUX) is currently in a strong Rally it is also an excellent Company to Forecast for accuracy of future price movements and contributor to my overall Analytics.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is quite bright. That is if my Forecast for a General Market - Bearish Cycle / Bearish Inflection Point is delayed! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Restaurant Companies, the securities have definitely been positive. Starbucks Corp. is currently strong Technically but I have mini - reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, however it on an Initial Bearish "Warning.""

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits - maybe at even higher prices? There will be an end but I am not Forecasting an "end" at this time.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (SBUX) are and remain positive. Plainly stated they are Flat but comparatively very positive.

    * Technically ( weighting - - 35% ): Within this outstanding Company, my Indicators are not breaking down like with so many other Companies. It recently took a Hit off of its highs of $83. to a very recent $69. now it is back to $73. and that is NOT positive. This means TOPPING - sooner or later.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (SBUX) !

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Restaurant Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (SBUX), (MCD), (WEN), (YUM), (ARCO), (EAT), (DRI), (KKD), (DNKN), (CAKE), (RT), (DPZ), (PNRA), (BLMN), (TXRH), (DENN), (BWLD), (THI).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    SBUX, MCD, WEN, YUM, ARCO, EAT, DRI, KKD, DNKN CAKE, RT, DPZ, PNRA, BLMN, TXRH, DENN, BWLD, THI

    Tags: SBUX, MCD, WEN, YUM, ARCO, EAT, DRI, KKD, RT, DPZ, PNRA, BLMN, TXRH, DENN, BWLD, THI
    May 29 10:35 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Merck & Company – Not What It Was And Should Be – But – Doing Well – With Concern

    Merck & Company - Not What It Was and Should Be - But - Doing Well - With Concern

    Merck $ Company is tracking the Dow 30 Industrials very well and that is usually a very good indicator. Unfortunately, my Fundamental and Technical Forecast - tell me a very different and much less optimistic story. Listening to my Forecasts is always the prudent thing to do. I am not Forecasting much if any up-side at this time.

    It has had a very unusual run since the beginning of they year and unfortunately that slows my optimism for the future. It is now a simple chore to monitor MRK and take profits at a prudent point of time.

    Handling "unusual" situations is built into my Methodology and we continue to profit with MRK and other unusual company situations.

    My previously written articles on MRK (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Merck can be found below and is about 42% since March 2012.

    Look at the Profits for MRK - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Merck - has: a) gone mildly UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on MRK. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.12%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.

    Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Merck. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

    Forecast w/ Performance

    Merck & Company and other Health Care Sector Companies are tracking well. The Company has supported my Forecasts for many years, so be prudent and careful at this time.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Pharmaceutical Companies, the securities are currently and definitely strong but I have reservations. I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (MRK) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are looking anemic again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company for a long-term Hold.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently near its highs of $55.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (MRK) !

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Major Pharma. Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (MRK), (PFE), (TEVA), (BMY), (JNJ), (LLY), (ABT), (GWPH), (FRX), (MYL), (ORMP), (GSK), (ZTS). And, many more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    MRK, PFE, TEVA, BMY, JNJ, LLY, ABT, GWPH, FRX, MYL, ORMP, GSK, ZTS

    Tags: MRK, PFE, TEVA, BMY, JNJ, LLY, ABT, GWPH, FRX, MYL, ORMP, GSK, ZTS
    May 29 10:24 AM | Link | Comment!
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