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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • It's Sunday's - General Market - Weekly Wrap & Forward Thoughts – June 15th:

    It's Sunday's - General Market - Weekly Wrap & Forward Thoughts - June 15th:

    My logo for Over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    Accurately Forecasting any major Indice, (Dow - 30 / S&P 500 / Nasdaq, Etc.) Index or any Security on the planet for me is a daily routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years.

    My General Market Opinions and Forecasts are published in SeekingAlpha.com on: Tuesday / Thursday / Sunday. Sectors are published on Wednesday - - In my Personal Blog.

    Check me Out - - - My Accuracy is - Amongst the BEST !

    You might want to read my articles and their months of archive articles on: (AAPL), (BAC), (GE), (GOOG), (AMZN), (CSCO), (GLD), (MSFT), (SLV), (T), (XOM). ( a select list ) I publish three per day rotating through 46 Companies including all the 30 Dow Industrial Company Components.

    Please scroll down to my General Market Update for today . . .

    This past week is in the books, and the focus must (as always) be - - to look forward to - seeking future profits. As you know and read all too often - looking back - - ( often over the years - particularly at Primary and Secondary Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points ) offers perspective and hindsight can help but can never put profits into your portfolio. My Forecasting - Can and Does - Put Profits into YOUR Portfolio!

    My daily analytics / forecasting it is what provides clarity as to where the General Market is going (direction - up or down) and hence the sorting of the many security choices you have to ponder. Yes, it is a matter of choices, and that is what my articles, forecasts, and Client Recommendations is all about.

    This graphic tells the story very clearly, and yes it is a bit difficult to understand and to track. I believe my many articles demonstrate that I both understand and track the Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs - - very, very well. Yes, it is almost a "crazy" swirl of lines and cycles but they all make sense to me and have led me to be profitable for over 50 years.

    There is constant Rotation ( Swirling and Cycling ) - if you prefer - - please have a look at my "Rotation Model." Article for understanding) going on in the Marketplace with converging and diverging circles / cycles moving endlessly. This "Rotation" creates Inflections Points and when a Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point occurs, there are always securities that have "Rotated" into phase to profit from. Also, you might want to have a look at my SHB Cycle. Be sure to spend time watching the animated cycling from bull to bear and back to bull again and again. This is how it works with all Indices, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs. The above URLs are my Three Pillars of my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."

    When you take the time to get a handle on all of this, you will definitely become a very profitable Investor!

    Over many years, my Forecasts, Opinions and Comments over many years have been deadly accurate.

    My Profit history is also published every Monday with Updates on my Asset Allocation Models. They are: Income / Income & Growth / Growth / Aggressive Growth. ( see my Personal Blog )

    Perhaps you will permit me to assist you with guidance and direction in improving your portfolio's future "Probabilities for Profit."

    I invite you to ask me questions about my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" via my Email addresses below.

    The General U.S. Stock Market - - Updated

    Clearly, the General Market remains Bullish and has in relatively recent sessions it has made New Highs in several of the major Indices. It has now taken two hits (Pull-Backs) just this year 2014 and that should be YOUR wake-up call to Reality. If not you will repeat - - Not Learning - - from the past, it was expensive then and it will be expensive again for you.

    The preliminary and notable "HITs" so fare are in the Nasdaq and the Mid and Small Cap Indices. This is the story-line and I have yet read anything intelligible that focuses on this FACT. If you are not aware of this break-down and only follow the New York and Large Cap I suggest you come up to speed and soon, very soon. The cost of not paying attention to any "Grouping" (that is telling the REAL story) is just plain foolish.

    This February rally will likely continue doing its thing just for a just short, very short while longer. The deterioration is becoming even more obvious to the Investing Public and that is a rare remark on my part. The Investing Public is most often oblivious of the Cycling of the Stock Market and that is why they are on balance Losers.

    I hope you are reading my Company articles and their sizable archives that use the Dow 30 Industrials and 16 other high profile Companies. ( please see my Personal Blog referenced below )

    At this time, as an asset manager, I am holding a short (small / very few) list of - Select Companies and ETFs that continue to ascend. (See my Dow 30 Articles for a specific reference). This means that I am increasing my Cash Holdings as it appears to be prudent to do so. My forward focus is on - - the on going and well over-due Bullish - Topping - that is going on and has been going on "INTERNALLY" in the Marketplace for over six months.

    A new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish Cycle and most likely another monster Bear Market is definitely in the making. I hope you will not be caught holding your Companies and ETFs when you would have preferred (in hind-sight) to have been Holding Cash. I remind you that "Greed" is an expensive word. That has be modestly profitable while the Mutual Funds continue to deteriorate.

    I maintain very accurate Primary Fundamental - Valuation and supportive Technical - Analysis Indicators for the Short ( 30 days to 60 days ) and Intermediate - Term ( 60 days to 4 months ). My Secondary Indicators I use are telling a Bearish story that is never seen or talked about by the media or Wall Street with or to the investing public. Secondary Indicators are always Near & Short - Term. They are the most accurate and valuable and must be a leading part of your analytics.

    Having just these two time-frames (Near and Short-Term) - - - handled and under control through my Forecasting the - - Long and Very Long - Term Cycles of the General Market - - simple fall into place. (This statement is also quite applicable to Sectors / Industry Groups / Commodities / Companies and ETFs). (Please re-read this paragraph for complete clarity). Think about this paragraph and you will begin to profit consistently.

    General Market - - Discussed w/ More Detail / Forecasted / Forward Thoughts

    This past week was DOWN and Very Sloppy. "Sloppy" is a word that I use on or about transitions that I call Inflection Points. I have now used that word for almost a full month. That statement depends on what specific Indices you are looking at - unfortunately there are many - - too many!. It is currently difficult to know what to follow for most Investors. This has been true about the Major Indices - turning mixed for quite some time, which is a Bearish sign to give strong support and consideration to holding Cash.

    Many of my technical Indicators are appearing to be stretched to the limit on this Pull-Back. This has suggests yet another near-term (1 - 30 days) Rally of some minor degree is likely.

    The Short-Term (30 to 60 days) Bias remains UP and that should continue for just a short time, very short time longer.

    My Intermediate-Term ( 6 months to 9 months) My Forecast remains the same. I am looking for a Primary Bearish Market Inflection Point, and it will come. Patience and Discipline are your two most valuable tools to employ at this time.

    Within my Analytics are clearly supporting my opinion that the Marketplace is: the fundamentals are too over-valued, the technicals are too over-bought, and the consensus opinion is way too bullish. Economic and financial news, on balance, is negative and not supportive of taking any Bullish positions. There are, of course, exceptions that come along - BUT THE GENERAL MARKET FOCUS IS - CAUTION !

    During time frames when the marketplace is topping there are always clear signs which include: a) advisors and bloggers are overly bullish; b) smart money and insiders are selling; c) corporate earnings growth is waning; d) the Fed is vacillating and undeceive as to providing direction to the economy - - now there is question regarding quantitative easing; e) Debt (borrowing for stock ownership) is at hitting a record-high and growing; and f) the bond market is descending (bond prices drop when interest rates are rising). Want more support for the above, try reading my many articles as shared in my private blog.

    Simple Stated: I am currently turning ever more Bearish because my Fundamental Valuations have been deteriorating for quite some time, and my Technical Indicators are breaking down weekly. It's just that simple!

    Looking Forward beyond a month or so is currently a bit blurred, due to so many diverse indicators giving mixed signals. This is always the case during time frames when a topping transition is in the making. I suggest you stay tuned to my flow of daily articles as well as my (several per week) General Market Updates in as presented in my Personal Blog. Check it out!

    You May be Interested

    I update and publish each Saturday morning a Chart in StockCharts - PublicList a proprietary General Market Update that provides me perspective between the three Indices that control the Marketplace. This is one of my secrets that can make you consistent profits if you will follow them both individually and collectively. They are: a) Primary Indices ( Dow 30 Industrials / NY & Nasdaq Composite, Etc. ) ; b) My proprietary Inflection Point Count which is very - broad based; c) The Commodity Index. Click here to view this excellent Indicator.

    For over 50 years, this kind of Analytics has enabled me to have the luxury of a Leading Methodology for very early-on Identifying Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points or (the beginning / ending) of Bullish and Bearish Cycles -- and -- "Investing Wisely."

    It was developed by algorithms that work / perform equally well for Sectors / Industry Groups / Commodities / Companies and ETFs.

    (NASDAQ:AAPL),(NASDAQ:AMZN), (NYSE:BAC), (NASDAQ:CSCO), (NYSE:GE), (NASDAQ:GOOG), (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NASDAQ:MSFT), (NYSEARCA:SLV), (NYSE:T), (NYSE:XOM), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQ), (NYSEARCA:DIA).

    I hope you Stay Tuned - my "stuff " it has been very accurate for over 50 years . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,

    Dr. Steve

    AAPL, AMZN, BAC, CSCO, GE, GOOG, GLD, MSFT, SLV, T, XOM, SPY, QQQ, DIA

    Tags: AAPL, AMZN, BAC, CSCO, GE, GOOG, GLD, MSFT, SLV, T, XOM, SPY, QQQ, DIA
    Jun 15 9:46 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Coca Cola Company (The) -- You Can Do Better Than Owning “Coke”

    Coca Cola Company (The) -- You Can Do Better Than Owning "Coke"

    Coca Cola Company has not been a competitive leader within Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies for a long time. It is on a Hold-Cash and my Fundamental and Technical Indicators are continuing breaking down.

    $40. - $42. is going to be tough to beat. That remark has been clear for over a month.

    My Performance please see the below table. I believe it accurately shares the rather tepid positive results by from my initial forecast and then making Profitable Investment Decisions. I hope you will take a minute - to get better acquainted with my performance over the years and decades.

    (click to enlarge)

    Look at the Profits for Coke - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Coca Cola - has: a) UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on KO. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield for (NYSE:KO): 3.02%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.

    Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Coke. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    If you own or are considering owning Beverage Companies, the securities have definitely become a mixed bag of most the not so good. I have placed it on my Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH waiting for a better time to "Invest Wisely."

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (KO) are not as positive as perhaps you are being told by other sources.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its highs of $42. selling for $40. The October rally is one that is tell a compelling story as to the longer-term future direction of the price of (KO). That is not an indication of a profitable future.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (KO) !

    Selectivity

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Beverage Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (KO), (NYSE:PEP), (NYSE:WWAV), (NYSE:CCE), (NASDAQ:MNST), (NYSE:DPS), (NYSE:FMX), (NYSE:COT).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    KO, PEP, WWAV, CCE, MNST, DPS, FMX, COT

    Tags: KO, PEP, WWAV, CCE, MNST, DPS, FMX, COT
    Jun 14 12:21 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Boeing Company -- Flying High But It Is Going To Land Again – Sooner Than You Think

    Boeing Company -- Flying High but it is Going to Land Again - Sooner Than You Think

    Boeing Company is one of the currently leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is on a Weakening Hold but my unique ( fundamental and technical ) Indicators are not positive. The current rally is not near enough to the previous high for my analytics.

    The past three months have been very unimpressive. The free-fall in January / February will occur again and that is a certainty.

    $120 is Not a Floor.

    My previously written articles on BA (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Boeing can be found below and is about 58% per year for the last 5 years.

    Look at the Profits for BA - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    BoeingName - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on BA. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My weekly study of all my High Profile Industrial / Aerospace is complete and there is little support for notably higher prices in the making. This is a study that like because

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.21%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Your "Peace of Mind" for you is my mission.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:

    Boeing Company and other Industrial Sector Companies are tracking well. It is in a Very Strong (too strong) Rally and exceeding what has been expected. The Company has supported my Forecasts for many years, so be prudent and careful at this time.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Aerospace Companies, the securities are currently and definitely a mixed bag with more good than bad. Many like Boeing are doing very well.

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (NYSE:BA) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are beginning to break down. It is currently off its highs of 2013 of $142, and selling for $130. This current rally is telling a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (BA).

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (BA) !

    Selectivity

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Aerospace Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (BA), (NYSE:TXT), (NYSE:UTX), (NYSE:ERJ), (NYSE:COL), (NYSE:HXL), (NASDAQ:BEAV), (NYSE:SPR), (NYSE:AIR), (NYSE:PCP). And, many more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    BA, TXT, UTX, ERJ, COL, HXL, BEAV, SPR, AIR, PCP

    Tags: BA, TXT, UTX, ERJ, COL, HXL, BEAV, SPR, AIR, PCP
    Jun 14 10:13 AM | Link | Comment!
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