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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
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Investing Wisely
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  • JP Morgan Chase & Company – Banks The Good, Bad And Ugly

    JP Morgan Chase & Company - Banks the Good, Bad and Ugly

    JP Morgan Chase Company continues to be one of the leading Banking Companies. It is on a Strong Hold, but my Indicators are breaking down.

    Note: Just so you know my "Indicators" always "break-down" or "turn-up" well in advance of the price of the Company or ETF - doing so.

    I believe JPM will continue to try to test its highs but will fail. It has been on a steady rise in price since the lows of $33.00 per share in June 2012. My weekly study / forecast of all my High Profile Financial / Major Banks is how I determine WHY.

    Two weeks ago I said: "A Pull-Back could well be in the making for (NYSE:JPM) as well as for the Banking Industry. Many Banks are already causing a great deal of hurt to portfolios."

    That has now happened and was about 10% to date! After a rally there will be more downside.

    My previously written articles on JPM (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My Performance for JP Morgan can be reviewed in the below table and is over 40% per year for the last 1.5 years.

    Look at the Profits for JPM - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    JP Morgan Chase - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 years gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on JPM. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.79% This is one of those Companies that is stingy with dividends.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - JP Morgan Chase since having sent Formal Recommendations in May 2009 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be relatively strong.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is off its highs of $60. selling for $57.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for JPM !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Major Bank Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (JCM), (NYSE:BAC), (NYSE:WFC), (NYSE:C), (NYSE:KEY), (NYSE:USB), (NASDAQ:FITB), (NYSE:BK), (NYSE:STI), (NYSE:BBT), (NYSE:PNC), (NYSE:STT), (NYSE:CMA), (NASDAQ:NTRS), (NYSE:MTB), (NYSE:BKU). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    JPM, BAC, WFC, C, KEY, USB, FITB, BK, STI, BBT, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, MTB, BKU

    Tags: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, KEY, USB, FITB, BK, STI, BBT, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, MTB, BKU
    Jun 12 11:22 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Visa, Inc. – Taking Advantage Of The Public Is Very Profitable

    Visa, Inc. - Taking Advantage of the Public is Very Profitable

    Visa, Inc. is one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is on a Strong Hold, but my Indicators are breaking down. My analytics endorses the above title.

    It recently was off its highs by over 10% and that is ominous. Caution is strongly advised.

    The current mini- rally of sorts is not impressive and experience suggests the future growth is limited. That means Sell but be surgical.

    My previously written articles on V (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Visa can be found in my table below and is about 72% per annum for the last 3 years. (not including dividends).

    Look at the Profits for VISA - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Visa - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on V. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 0.75%

    This week's commentary on Visa covers all of my indicators, both fundamentally for valuations and technically for momentum.

    Forecast w/ 3 Year Performance:

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like guidance and direction to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning Consumer Finance companies, the securities are increasingly becoming a mixed bag. Visa is currently relatively strong technically, but I have reservations about my fundamental valuation. It is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - Visa, Inc. since having sent Formal Recommendations in March 2011 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be only moderate.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is only slightly off its highs of $231, is selling for $212.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for V !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Property-
    Casualty Insurance Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (NYSE:V), (NYSE:WU), (NYSE:COF), (NYSE:AXP), (NASDAQ:SLM), (NYSE:DFS), (NASDAQ:DLLR), (NYSE:MA). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    V, WU, COF, AXP, SLM, DFS, DLLR, MA

    Tags: V, WU, COF, AXP, SLM, DFS, DLLR, MA
    Jun 12 10:06 AM | Link | Comment!
  • It's Thursday's - General Market - Mid-Week Assessment – June 12th:

    It's Thursday's - General Market - Mid-Week Assessment - June 12th:

    My logo for Over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    Talk to me Via Email - - My Analytics is getting Serious Again . . .

    I believe there are always many, many (too many!) Road - Signs ( see graphic below ) that more often than not - offer you - Very Inaccurate Information about the direction of the Stock Market. They seem to come from all sources (i.e.) Government i.e. Federal Reserve Board, Wall Street, Financial Media, Blogs and Bloggers and unfortunately many other unreliable economic and financial sources.

    Please Scroll Down to my General Market Update

    Accurately Forecasting any major Indice, (Dow - 30 / S&P 500 / Nasdaq, Etc.) Index or any Security on the planet for me is a daily routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years.

    My General Market Forecasts are published in SeekingAlpha.com on: Tuesday / Thursday / Saturday / Sunday.

    You might want to read my on going articles and their archive articles on: (AAPL), (GE), (GOOG), (AMZN), (CSCO), (GLD), (MSFT), (SLV), (T), (XOM).

    Note: My General Market Updates and Forecasts are offered every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday here in SA. I hope you will become a regular follower.

    Perhaps you will permit me to assist you with guidance and direction in improving your portfolio's future "Probabilities for Profit."

    ( Yes, I am seeking new asset management Clients ).

    I invite you to ask me questions about my Methodology ( just click) of "Investing Wisely" via my Email addresses below.

    The General U.S. Stock Market - - Update

    Clearly (without all these - Deceptive Road Signs) the General Market remains Bullish and has repeatedly been making New Highs so far this year. There have also been a couple Pull-
    Backs that are Ominous to say the least. That is what it will likely continue doing just for a just short while longer.

    At this time I am holding a number of - Select Companies and ETFs that continue to ascend. I am increasing my Cash Holdings as it appears to be prudent to do so. My forward focus is on - - the on going and well over-due Bullish - Topping - that is going on and has been going on "INTERNALLY" in the Marketplace for several months.

    A new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish Cycle and perhaps another monster Bear Market is definitely in the making. I hope you will not be caught Holding your Companies and ETFs when you would have preferred (in hind-sight) to have been Holding Cash. I remind you that "Greed" is an expensive word.

    I maintain very accurate Primary Fundamental - Valuation and supportive Technical - Analysis Indicators for the Short ( 30 days to 60 days ) and Intermediate - Term ( 60 days to 4 months ). My Secondary Indicators I use are telling a Bearish story that is never seen or talked about with or to the investing public. Secondary Indicators are always Near & Short - Term. They are the most accurate and valuable and must be a leading part of your analytics.

    Having just these two time-frames handled and under control through my Forecasting the - - Long and Very Long - Term Cycles of the General Market - - simple fall into place. (This statement is also quite applicable to Sectors / Industry Groups / Commodities / Companies and ETFs). (Please re-read this paragraph for complete clarity).

    General Market - - Forecasted w/ Current Opinions

    For months, there has been very little convincing evidence (Economically or Fundamentally) that the current Primary (Bull Market) Rally and certainly future Secondary Rallies will be sustained. a) However, the Market continues to crank out New Highs. That is no longer universal in all major Indices - many are and have broken down. That includes the Nasdaq, Mid and Small Cap Indices; b) However, the U.S. Government and Wall Street keep "pumping sunshine" (cheap money and their other divisive (certainly not economic sound) ways of deceiving the people that voted for and pay their bills) and that will continue to lead you into severe disappointment, portfolio losses or worse in the coming years. These are the Facts and IF YOU WANT TO BE a Profitable Investor - - IT - Mandates that - - You Follow the FACTS ! Fiction and BS abound in today's world and I am sympathetic with how very difficult it is to separate the Wheat from the Chaff.

    I do have three "Howevers" - and - "Exceptions." - - Built into my Methodology of "Investing Wisely." The first are my hundreds of Forecasts; and the second is that they Work !

    I frequently use these - three words - to describe my Analytics of the Current Market. You will find that they are both very descriptive and very accurate!

    * The - Very Near-Term: The Market should be up but waning over the coming days.

    * The - Bias: The Market - Bias is UP and "Bias" is much more sensitive than a Trend. ( If you are going to be consistently profitable, I suggest you become acquainted with my analytics that gives me the "Bias. )

    * The - Trend: The Trend is clearly UP and will take much time to turn negative. That does not mean that you are safe nor do I recommend that you continue to hold long or to hold most mutual funds. Trends are often poorly measured by Financial Analysts are often misleading to the untrained Investor. So when a Up- Trend truly becomes an Up-Trend it is always going to be LATE but remains a valuable tool. This is always true for when a Down-Trend truly becomes a Down-Trend. My first two words above ( Bias and Trend ) help me ( big time) but it is the Bias that give me the edge to superior profits and does much better job than to follow a Trend. That better job is 10% to 15% per year and is usually more.

    Note: I have released my Near-Term Scenario for the Market Top to my Clients. ( I f you are interested in a "Thumb-Nail" of that Scenario, just send me an Email telling me something about yourself, your financial objectives and approximate size of your portfolio ).

    For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days ) My recent Forecast for a mini / bounce Rally is and has been VERY accurate and remains in place. The Upside may last a for a short time but a Pull-Back is in the making. This coming forecast for a Pull-Back will likely be the first noticeable "Crack in the Damn" and few will recognize it for what it is. I just will be taking highly selective Bearish Positions for my Clients when the "Crack" occurs.

    This current (soon to be past) Rally was manipulated by our new gal in the Fed. My new "Operative (NASDAQ:NEWS) Word" for the foreseeable future will be "JANET."

    Note: So, when will I take Short or Bearish Positions. I will tell you When, I start to Very Selectively take some Bearish Positions but only my Clients will know the What, that is specific securities. I will not tell you What securities or even hint. That is why many people pay me an average of 1% of the value of their portfolio and consistently receive over 20% growth / appreciation of their portfolio.

    As usual the coming days and perhaps a couple / few weeks will be critical if you intend to begin "Investing Wisely" along with me.

    For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Same Old / Same Old - - - Topping is WAY over-due but, I suggest the coming few weeks of trading will be telling the Story Best - it will be a Compelling Story. Stay tuned.

    The Dow Industrials and New York Composite Indexes are what I call "hanging tough" but the Nasdaq and Small Cap is showing great weakness. Will there be a rally that meets my criterion for Prudent Investing in the coming days? I will use the weekend once again to determine if the risk / reward warrants taking any long position. At this writing, I cannot begin to be thinking other than Near and Short-Term.

    Remember, - EVERY - Bullish Cycle is followed by a Bearish Cycle, be it Near-Term - or - Short-Term - or - Long-Term - or - Very Long-Term. I hope you have such a perspective.

    You May be Interested

    I update and publish each Saturday morning a Chart in StockCharts - PublicList a proprietary General Market Update that provides me prospective between the three Indices that control the Marketplace. This is the seldom used formula that can make you consistent profits if you will follow them both individually and collectively. They are: a) Primary Indices ( Dow 30 Industrials / NY & Nasdaq Composite, Etc. ) ;b) My proprietary Inflection Point Count which is very - broad based ;c) The Commodity Index.

    Understand that this graphic / chart presents both Primary Cycles and Secondary Cycles in the stock market. I seldom participate (Buy / Sell or Short / Cover ) in Secondary Cycles.

    You can view this excellent Indicator at:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69359735342&a=270034212

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,

    Dr. Steve

    AAPL, GE, GOOG, AMZN, CSCO, GLD, MSFT, SLV, T, XOM, SPY, QQQ, DIA

    Tags: AAPL, GE, GOOG, AMZN, CSCO, GLD, MSFT, SLV, T, XOM, SPY, QQQ, DIA
    Jun 12 8:55 AM | Link | Comment!
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