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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • Caterpillar, Inc. – It Ran Like A Gazelle And Now Is Crawling Back Again

    Caterpillar, Inc. - It Ran Like a Gazelle and Now is Crawling Back Again

    Caterpillar, Inc. clearly has been one of the leading Ex-Dow 30 Companies. It has ascended very nicely over the past year. My Indicators (fundamentally and technically) are breakind down that that spells caution.

    How things change! And there are always "hind-sight" reasons why. My job is to provide "fore-sight" and I do! It is currently on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down. That decision was premature but we still registered a very fine profit.

    My previously written articles on CAT (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Caterpillar can be found in the table below and is well over 140% per year for the three year holding period.

    Look at the Profits for CAT - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Caterpillar - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on CAT. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    Remember the primary trend is currently down! Remember the axiom - - "don't buck the trend?

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.22%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Caterpillar, Inc. and other Heavy Machinery Companies are tracking the Utilities sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Utility Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why!

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Caterpillar, Inc. is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold-Cash. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Poor - Flat" and on the Decline. That produces future declining valuation projections.

    * Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The current price of $08.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for CAT !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (NYSE:CAT), (NYSE:MTW), (NYSE:DE), (NYSE:TEX), (NYSE:CMI), (NYSE:MTOR), (NASDAQ:WPRT), (NYSE:TRN). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    CAT, MTW, DE, TEX, CMI, MTOR, WPRT, TRN

    Tags: CAT, MTW, DE, TEX, CMI, MTOR, WPRT, TRN
    Jun 09 1:23 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Apple, Inc. – The Shinny Apple Of Old Now Has Too Many Brown Spots

    Apple, Inc. - The Shinny Apple Of Old Now Has Too Many Brown Spots

    Apple, Inc. clearly has not been one of the leading Companies in past months and has not been on my Favorable List for a long time. I turned Bearish and went to cash in November 2012 over a year ago. It is currently on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down.

    This year has been a nice rally, but I would never participate or consider owning with the amount of Un-Favorable data and information in my notes.

    The split is interpreted by me as managements acquiescence that it is no longer a 'power-stock" and will look more like a dividend paying Company in the future.

    With the Nasdaq lagging the market my General Market Forecast support further upside for Apple. Still I a not a Buyer and it is not on my Favorable List.

    Apple, like Microsoft and many other Companies has provided profits that we can often only dream about. Then there is a change. Currently Apple is down over 150 points from its high. Investors that live on HOPE are often disappointed. I am trying to help.

    My previously written articles on AAPL (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Apple, Inc. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:AAPL). I treat Apple just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    Look at the Profits for AAPL - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Apple - has: a) gone to the moon in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on AAPL. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.20%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Apple, Inc. and other Computer Hardware Companies are tracking the Utilities sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Technology Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why!

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may be lead to believe! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Apple, Inc. is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold-Cash. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Flat" and un-impressive. That produces future declining valuation projections.

    * Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. It is again in a current rally since February to a current price of $92.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for APPL !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (OTC:APPL), (NYSE:EMC), (NASDAQ:NTAP), (NASDAQ:DELL), (NYSE:HPQ), (NYSE:DDD), (NYSE:FIO), (NASDAQ:WDC), (NASDAQ:SGI), (NASDAQ:SSYS), (NASDAQ:STX), (NASDAQ:SMT), (NYSE:AUO), (NYSE:NCR). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    AAPL, EMC, NTAP, DELL, HPQ, DDD, FIO, WDC, SGI, SSYS, STX, SMT, AUO, NCR

    Tags: AAPL, EMC, NTAP, DELL, HPQ, DDD, FIO, WDC, SGI, SSYS, STX, SMT, AUO, NCR
    Jun 09 9:30 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Aggressive Growth Portfolios - - 5-Year Performance - - June 9th. - Update

    Aggressive Growth Portfolios - - 5-Year Performance - - June 9th. - Update

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    There is always a group of Companies that are "In-Favor" that have "PAZZAZ" to be Bought or Short-Sold.

    Not every day or even every week but certainly at both Bullish and Bearish Inflection Points. If you are Following you know my Forecasting and Accuracy of Identifying Inflection Points is very, very good.

    I hope you are following my General Market Forecasts that spell out those Inflection Points as they occur - - delayed a bit in my articles with respect to my Clients who come first.

    My Performance over these many years has been good to me and my Clients with few set-backs. The table below listing of ten (10) specific Companies is clearly strong performance but also prudently attained. My performance goes back to the late 1950s! Click here for that very long-term record and narrative. You will quickly note that my focus is on Bear Markets. Simple stated, most anyone can profit in a Bull Market, but it takes someone special to do so in Bearish or Neutral Markets.

    Asset Allocation Model Performance

    You will want to review all four of my Asset Allocation Model Performance for a perspective of my focus on "results" for my Clients. Performance is much different and so is the risk! Managing Risk is What it is ALL About.

    My Aggressive Growth Companies will always greatly outperform in Bull Markets and often hang in there in Bear Markets. I sell them just like the more sanguine Companies when my Forecast for that Company suggests that is more prudent to Hold-Cash. Cash is often a "Wise" choice seldom used by most Investors.

    Pazzaz Companies are always the most fun when I do my Work / Analytics that is why I use the term "Pazzaz."

    They are easy to identify and I make it a policy of always have at least a twenty or thirty in my "Pazzaz List" as possible Buys. Oh, yes they can turn Bearish and when they do, much like Apple, Inc. over the past number of months they can hurt you Big-Time. So, for my Aggressive Growth Clients I will advise taking Bearish positions, when appropriate in these highly select "Pazazz" Companies.

    So, what is the Risk? To a point the risk is all about YOU. It is a perception to most investors and that is often a shame. Wall Street and Mutual Funds have brain-washed Investors and that too is a shame.

    Aggressive Growth Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients. My on going objective is to identify changing trends from my Forecasting Analytics. For me this is my job that my Clients retain me to do and do well.

    Table of Performance

    The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazzaz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog - there is no obligation. I do not manage accounts with less than $100,000 in the Clients Portfolio. There are exceptions. . .

    (click to enlarge)

    Notes for Table:

    * You will note in most of my Articles I use the words "Favorable" and "Un-Favorable - - I maintain just these two Asset Management Lists. ( please see the below "Report Card." ) Yes, I frequently talk about "Also Rans" but they are never recommended for investment to my Clients.

    * Bullish ("Alerts" and Bearish "Warnings" are each subdivided into either - Initial - or - Strong. The time-frame from my "Initial" to my "Strong" ("Alert" / "Warning") provides me sufficient lead time for selecting the currently most ("Favorable" & " Un-Favorable") e.g. PROFITABLE ( Bullish & Bearish ) Investment Choices. That time frame may be weeks or even months!

    * Fundamental Valuation and Technical Analytics calculations are (quantitatively computed) and then translated by formula into a Rating (ranging from: ( 0 to 100 ). Just like in school: A's are 90 - 100 and F's are 59 - 0 and thus the Letter Grade. This is my internal "Report Card" which is prepared for each security under consideration for Buying or Shorting.

    * Opinion is my on going strategy of Analytics to - Hold - an investment for as long as possible. Those - Holding Periods - prior to Selling or Covering are very strategic and effective. Alternatively, - Hold-Cash - is my investment strategy that demands that - - until I have both a General Market Bullish or Bearish Inflection Points coincident with the Industry Group and its component Company - I Hold CASH ! Yes, I " Cherry Pick " very carefully! Bullish (Buying / Selling) - or - Bearish (Shorting / Covering) - - Formal Recommendations or Positions Being Held are never provided Publicly, they are exclusively for my Clientele.

    * As an Ex-Professor of Finance & Economics I refer to my Securities Rating Procedures as a "Report Card" - - ( A's are for Buying and F's are for Shorting ) and anything in between is MUTE. My Report Cards for each Index / Company / ETF, etc. permits me to remain Focused on the Companies / ETFs with the highest probability for Profit!

    Kind-of Fun - - Don't You Think ?

    I am seeking new Asset Management Clients and Consulting relationships. Please feel free to open an Email dialog. I do not sell I just present and support the facts. I hope you are interested.

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    Companies: BBRY, CHK, DDD, FB, FCX, GLW, NFLX, QCOM, TSLA, YHOO.

    Tags: BBRY, CHK, DDD, FB, FCX, GLW, NFLX, QCOM, TSLA, YHOO
    Jun 09 8:33 AM | Link | Comment!
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