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Steven Benharris
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I am the founder and sole proprietor of Active Asset Management, a registered investment advisory firm in California. My background is in Electrical Engineering and Mathematics, however investing isn't like rocket science, it's a lot more difficult. Where engineering follows the laws of physics,... More
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  • In The Technology Bargain Bin

    As a contrarian, my investment style is to find stocks that are beaten up, out of favor, selling at the lower range of their historical valuation levels, and with strong fundamentals. In this post, I'll mention four technology stocks that I find in the technology bargain bin, with only a brief mention of why I find them attractive at or below their current price levels.

    Disclosure first: I have recently initiated positions in all four of the stocks mentioned in this post. I step into positions and build positions in a pyramid fashion, adding larger increments at lower prices if I still have conviction that my initial hypothesis was correct. I also trade proactively around positions in an effort to reduce cost basis.

    From it's May 2 high of $29.18, Intel Corporation (INTC) is down 23% in just five months. INTC has sold off due to sluggishness in PC demand as iPads with ARM cores, Smart phones, and other mobile devices that don't use Intel chips grab greater market share. At $22.51, INTC is selling at slightly below 10X trailing and slightly above 10X forward earnings and yielding a 4% dividend. Technically, the stock is in a downtrend. Intel's fortunes will be significantly tied to the success of the Atom processor in notebooks and tablets running Windows 8.

    Texas Instruments (TXN) has seen almost an 18% drop since it's March 25, 2012 peak of $33.99. AT 20.5X trailing and 13.7 times forward earnings, it is not as cheap as INTC, nor as compelling on a valuation basis, but still has garnered my interest.

    Synaptics (SYNA) makes the touchpads, clickpads, and human interface solutions that are in notebook computers, smartphones, and other digital electronic devices. Their products are in more than a billion devices, so you are probably using one. Down from $39.01 on February 26 of this year to $23.70, the shares have been beaten with the ugly stick this year. There is a huge 28.5% short interest in the shares, based primarily on fear of design losses to competitors and the impact of lessening PC demand on their touchscreen sales. SYNA has more than $9/share in cash, nil debt, a 4.2 current ratio, and an enterprise value of ~60% it's market cap. My thought is that a bearish scenario is already reflected in the current share price and the high short interest could fuel covering.

    QLGC: The low valuation of QLGC mystifies me. At $10.45, the shares trade at 5X trailing and 10X forward earnings. Furthermore, QLGC has $5.27 in cash and virtually zero debt, so the shareholder is paying just over $5/share for the operation that is projected to earn almost $1 this year (which is a significant decline from last year's $1.39). QLGC has an eye-popping current ratio of 8.12, yet nearly 7% of the float is held short. In July, QLGC missed earnings by a penny and revenues by less than 1%, and the stock dropped intraday 22%. The concern is that weakness in IT spending will negatively impact QLGC, but from my perspective, that seems pretty much baked in to the current share price, and then some. The enterprise value of the company is barely half of it's market cap.

    With AAPL accounting for ~ 15% of the NASDAQ 100 index and GOOG accounting for another ~5.5%, much of the gain in the NASDAQ this year has come from the out performance of those two issues, while many other stocks, including the four mentioned in this post, have been laggards.

    More disclosure: I have taken positions (long) in all four of the stocks mentioned in this post, and may add to those positions on further price weakness. Do your own due diligence, this primarily a mention of four tech issues, I did not go into detail about the companies or my reasons for initiating positions.

    Disclosure: I am long INTC, TXN, QLGC, SYNA.

    Oct 08 7:16 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Faster We Go, the Rounder We Get
    Nver fails. The most dominant advice from the financial media when October began was to sell, especially to sell commodities and banks. October will end with the biggest monthly point gain in the history of the Dow Jones index. The percent bullish on The S&P index, which had fallen to 21.8% on October 4th, closed Friday at 77.8%, recording a 257% gain in 18 trading sessions, impressive indeed.
    The VIX has dropped from 45.45 on October 3rd to close at 24.53 on Friday, losing 46% of it level in less than four weeks, as fear seeps out of the market, and greed slowly begins to work it’s way in. Remember, the time to buy is when the VIX is high, when everyone is in panic mode.
    In the past couple days, I’ve read posts from two bloggers or newsletter authors who had authored extremely negative advice during the first couple of days of October, now expressing their bullishness. Here’s what the talking heads on televeison are spouting now.:
    “It’s not too late get in now. Fund managers are going to be forced to buy in to chase performance and push prices higher, blah, blah, blah”. Yeah. Bite me.
    This has been a trading market, with large swings in both directions. If you haven’t taken some chips off the table in the past couple trading sessions, you’re being a bit piggy.
     
     
     
     
    Oct 31 1:11 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Waiting for your call
    “I’m just sitting here patiently, waiting for your call...” 
    When October began, market sentiment was extremely bearish, with an abundance of “sell now” recommendations. In the past three weeks, the markets have taken off on a blistering rally, although it has been a choppy one with high volatility. So how will we know when the market has overshot to the upside, at least in the short term, if not the intermediate term? That’s easy, when the rally is about to exhaust itself, the pundits will be falling all over each with giddiness and buy recommendations, claiming they called the bottom on October 3rd. The CNBC talking heads will be gasping for breath, hyperventilating, as they remark how the market has taken off and is now climbing a stairway to heaven. The ultimate signal that the rally is long in the tooth and about to end will come when the same prognosticator who expressed extreme bearishness at the bottom a few weeks ago, espouses euphoric sentiment, then claims he said to buy when he screamed “sell” at the lowest levels. 
    I don’t think we are at the point yet where the market has become overbought enough short to intermediate term that a pullback is about to take place. The market was deeply oversold when October began, with the indices all about as far below their 100 and 200 day moving averages as they get, except for events like the 2008-2009 financial crisis. There is still some skepticism, we don’t have the giddy euphoric sentiment that accompanies overbought market conditions, but it is being built. From my perspective, there are several hundred points of Dow upside and several percentage points in the other indices before we will see that occur. Watch for CNBC to stick Elaine Gazarelli, Abbey Joseph Cohen, or someone else of that ilk on the screen to proclaim they are “constructive” on the market going forward. The sentiment will be extremely unbalanced. They don’t ring a bell at market tops, but they do make an overwhelming bullish call. 
    Until then, I’m just sitting here patiently, waiting for your call....(double entendre intended).
    Oct 24 12:42 PM | Link | Comment!
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