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Steven Borovay, CFP  

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  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    User thank you for the compliment, it's greatly appreciated.

    In 2013 PPV had net revenue of $82.5 mil with OIBDA of $33.8 mil. At 1 mil subs the OIBDA will be in the ballpark of $45-$65 mil per the Co. What I found interesting was Barrios comment, in a recent Bloomberg interview, that after break even, 80-85% of a new subscriber revenue goes to the bottom line. There is no hard annual operating cost, however, the unit cost to add content decreases for every new sub. Keep your eye on online store revenue as this could be a tremendous growth driver down the road.
    Apr 17, 2015. 11:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • World Wrestling Entertainment updates on streaming subscribers [View news story]
    Go to the wwe corporate website and here's the link. WWE Investor Relations using the term "currently" in mentioning sub count. Won award and released current sub count of over 1.3 mil. Most likely includes free subs (as pointed out by Chris Harrington). Free subs should be around 150K. So beginning of April sub count was most likely in the neighborhood of 1.1 to 1.15 mil. A good benchmark for the rest of the year.

    http://bit.ly/1GTNadR
    Apr 17, 2015. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Insider that would be a tremendous mistake as cable revenues were almost 33% of total revenue in 2014. Plus this will be increasing $105 million to 2018. It's Raw and Smackdown where the Network will draw their subscriber base from. The Network is for the more avid fan. They would lose their casual fan base if they ever made such a permanent conversion.
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Dalton listened to Barrios on a Bloomberg interview and he said 80-85% of each additional sub (past b/e) goes to the bottom line. Had to factor in the additional guesstimate as far as the new continuing content.

    As far as my older brother, I don't need to be that rich, but keep on doing the things that make me happy.

    Thanks again.
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Ap I wasn't much of a fan prior to last summer. Personally I do find enough on the Network very entertaining. I think if you just look at it on the basis of the reduction from the PPV prices and what they are doing with NXT, that might be a bargain to the hardcore fan to sub a whole year. It just depends on your perspective. Appreciate your feedback and all others.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Nayaugpa b/e on the Network was changed to less than 1 million subs. So depending on where sub count is after the 1st Q, hopefully they will be able to keep the count above 1 mil the rest of the year. Numbers I projected for the 2nd Q are the most difficult as there will be fall off from the last of the 6 month subs and drop off after RR and WM. I think everyone needs to show a bit more patience. Not the way of the Street either. Like I said in my article, it's difficult to evaluate the Network now as it's still in its growth phase. Once the subs numbers year over go the other way, that's the time to say if it was successful or not.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Gmoney it would have been impossible for them to raise the full year outlook given the uncertainty as to the Network sub count. Although WWE was only replacing 16-17% of revenue going from PPV to the Network, the impact based on all the hype has been quite substantial in both directions.

    As far as programming, the shows they added could not have been at a substantial cost. Just as important they will know viewership stats soon after each show. They know they hit on the Austin and Jericho podcasts. So this other stuff will be trial and error.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Dalton a couple of other comments. I don't see Network costs with the low budget programming they added hitting 120 million.

    Also, from experience, when I've taken a short term outlook with my long term outlook remaining unchanged, I've cut my gains significantly. My older brother and I became involved in stocks about 1978. What we bought he kept and focused on the long term. It a number of years for me not to pay that much attention to short term moves. The lessons I learned could fill a book. My older brother is now one of the 1%'s.
    Apr 14, 2015. 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    IrishFan I can't tell you what the Street has factored in as far the PPV. I was a bit shocked that the stock fell when the sub count after WM was close to my best case scenario. There are forces in the market with program trading that control short term movements. Long term I'm hoping positive fundamentals emerge to where a year or so from now the stock is much higher.
    Apr 14, 2015. 12:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Dalton your comments on management being OTT on projections definitely has had a negative effect contributing substantially to rapid increase in stock price and then collapse upon discovery of the real numbers. Management has tempered their expectations and Barrios has pushed out the window on the 3-4 million potential. The fact is no one knows what the numbers will be down the road as streaming sub history is minimal at best. Now with Disney, HBO and others getting in, the model for this type of service will become known over time.

    Also, I think the majority of the collapse was due to the Company coming out and saying sub counts might be subject to PPV events. That was the first time since I started following the stock, that management came out and presented a chart. Based on that and the sub count after WM, the Street reacted. Dalton, I've learned short term emotions control stock behavior more so than long term fundamentals. It's hard to focus on Network fundamentals when they yet to have been fully established. Appreciate the feedback.
    Apr 14, 2015. 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Insider appreciate the positive feedback. The stock is trading mid-range based on historical measures when WWE first started paying a dividend. I don't see it moving much until they release the 1st Q numbers along with the sub count as of May 1st. I have kept my long term position in the stock. When it has broken 11 on the downside I bought and sold 4 short term positions successfully. I'm definitely not a Emmanuel Lemelson who has an uncanny ability to trade stocks short term. Hope that helps.
    Apr 14, 2015. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Strikes At The WWE Network, Causing Investors To Go Psycho [View article]
    Big Tuna, point by point here's the reply. Prime demographics are 18-49. Look at the Ratings on Raw and Smackdown and that is what they are measuring. That's where the viewership is and not people my age. As far as specific demographics and the intelligence of a fan, WWE stated 35% of the views are on mobile devices. On WrestleMania the largest PPV was in 2012 and 1,253,000. The comment of equaling 50% of TV viewership has never been a reality. My estimate of PPV's and the actual sub number for this year is over 1.45 million for WM31. As far as the comment fans get what they want then cancel, this does not recognize re-engagement later on. WWE has yet to realize those stats. If giving free months is a sign of desperation, I guess Netflix and HBO are in that boat too. Just took advantage of my free HBO month offer. Never have used the Netflix one where I receive a free months offer at least 4 times a year. Comparing a free Apple watch to a $9.99 give away, well I will let that remark stand on its own. As far as technical glitches in the system, having been a part of a couple internet companies, usually companies work these out with time. You threw a lot out there and I ready for more. Appreciate your feedback.

    Steve
    Apr 14, 2015. 12:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • World Wrestling Entertainment: Then, Now, And Forever [View article]
    Michael just read your comments. I think I addressed this before, but on the count of 982K Barrios has a metric taking daily averages. So as of 1/1/15 the count was 816K. It's a weighted average based on taking the total of the daily counts divided by 90 (days in the quarter). Some of the drop-off during the quarter was the last of the 6 month contracts. I'm more interested in end of quarter or key event sub counts. Going forward this is the critical measure of the success of the Network.

    I'm in the process of doing some research on the history of WWE PPV and gut feeling is that an audience was not built over night. If you review my numbers above and other guesstimated sub counts on previous articles you can see how close the Network came to my best case scenarios.

    I think for the long term holder that got in earlier after the stock tanked (my average basis is now around $11.50), the stock probably will be hitting higher highs and higher lows off the bottom. More upside potential as the cable contract revenues kick in and Network grows. Stock is trading in between its historical highs and lows prior to the Network. The pattern of the stock might be more like the seasonal chart Barrios presented.
    Apr 3, 2015. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fr. Emmanuel Lemelson Discusses Apple's Economic Prospects, World Wrestling Entertainment's Financial Condition And Other Issues [View article]
    Just saw this post Wisdom. Agreed he's brilliant at timing and taking the low lying fruits then cashing out. One of the very few stock timers that does better than the long term investor. Because of the fear factor associated with WWE, I have traded the stock 4 times successfully keeping my long term position. Personally I'm better at buying long term having bought The Gap in 1978 with $3,500. Today the stock is worth $3.3 million paying out over $71,000 per year in dividends. And to be honest, that is what the stock would be worth if I held the original position through thick and then. Made about 150K on it, but my focus was wrong and too short term. Learned that lesson and have profited since.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fr. Emmanuel Lemelson Discusses Apple's Economic Prospects, World Wrestling Entertainment's Financial Condition And Other Issues [View article]
    Wisdom that was not what I was talking about. Lemelson commented on the value of FB and said he saw no value in this social media company pointing to various financial metrics and he was not referring to any other stock. I bought at $38/share and it was based on the belief that they only had to figure out how to monetize the base. Which they did and or doing.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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