Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Steven Borovay, CFP  

View Steven Borovay, CFP's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Discussing The Sale Of Amvona Fund's Stake In World Wrestling Entertainment, Corporate Governance And Other Issues [View article]
    As good as the Father...and he's exceptionally good as it's rare that anyone I've seen can short at stock at the top and then go long at the bottom, I think he might be missing on his understanding of the metrics of stocks that feed off the internet. He's not a fan of Facebook citing metrics that show in his mind that it's overvalued, actually the same metrics that would show Salesforce and Amazon are similarly overvalued. I've been able, as I'm a long term holder, to double my money on Facebook.

    The numbers on the Network in a few years can be transforming as streaming has created a revenue flow that just 12 months into this new venture exceed PPV.

    Also too, anyone who fully understood WWE would know there was never a chance of Vince McMahon selling his company. As far as management changes Lemelson recommended, it still remains to be seen, as Barrios in the last c.c. was more close to the actual reality of the Network, however, still needs to communicate how the Network will get to 3-4 million subs.
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WWE: Strong Quarter, But Network Numbers Obscured [View article]
    Casey thanks for the props.

    There were many encouraging signs in the 4th Q including that Network revenue, even with the free month, exceed PPV revenue for the 4th Q of 2013. I think the base sub count of 816,000 at the end of 2014 will be the first valid metric at the end of 2015 to make comparisons.

    There will be a drop off after Wrestlemania and I'm trying to guesstimate the possible scenarios at the end of the 2nd Q 15. Gut feeling is that 1 million subs throughout the year is attainable. I think WWE management now has a better grasp on how to expand the Network first going for the low laying fruit. An educated guess is that they add India in the 2nd Q to add more subs. Wish management added more color on how they are being paid when the Network is added as a premium channel by cable providers (especially by Rogers).

    Thanks again,
    Steve
    Feb 25, 2015. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World Wrestling Entertainment: Intriguing Prospects, But Margin Of Safety Too Small [View article]
    Jake, I've written numerous articles on WWE since last September. A couple of things. First as the Network started 1 year ago, economies of scale are developed over time. As the sub count grows the unit cost goes down. WWE has been in business over 30 years. The Network is new. Time will show that sub count year to year comparisons starting the end of 2015 and then quarter-to-quarter comparisons adjusted for PPV events should be on the upswing. Also as the OIBDA in the 4th Q for the Network surpassed that of PPV in 2013, not sure how you arrived at the stock prices of WWE going forward. Being valued at between $2-10/share with the increases in cable contracts even with a sub hitting as high as 1.5 million is not even realistic based on historically precedents with the stock price. It's never been below $6.76/share since going public.

    In your analysis of the product, you forgot to mention NXT and all the additional content they Network has provided since starting last year.

    Finally, after the recent earnings release key insiders exercised their options purchasing the stock.

    Appreciate seeing all sides on this Company as I'm heavily invested and constantly looking for something I'm missing.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Storylines From WWE Earnings Call [View article]
    No problem with that Dante. Only meant to get out there what was already known about these cable deals. The structure has to be much like HBO has with cable providers. In WWE case this would be on top of the Raw and Smackdown shows, as it would make no sense to give the Network for a flat sum not knowing sub count in the future. As WWE management is not very transparent on contract details, you and I are correct as 'probably' applies.

    As far as taking profits, there's no right or wrong answer, it all depends on where you think the Company is going. But a profit is a profit.
    Feb 21, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Storylines From WWE Earnings Call [View article]
    Dante not even close on your comments:

    Here's the WWE release:

    "This past August, Rogers Communications and WWE announced a 10-year broadcast and multimedia agreement, making Rogers the exclusive distributor of WWE’s flagship programming in Canada through 2024. The deal extends WWE’s programming on Sportsnet 360 and includes the right to distribute WWE Network as a premium linear channel and on multiple digital platforms."

    No one who follows the company closely would have thought that this is part of the sub count. It's already built into their contract with Rogers and that part of the deal probably kicks in additional revenue based on subscribers to Rogers and/or other cable providers who offer it as a premium channel. Additional revenue to WWE.
    Feb 20, 2015. 11:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Storylines From WWE Earnings Call [View article]
    Ethan I've written a series of articles on WWE. One in particular analyzing cash flow. The amount of cash burnt continues to go down sequentially and is now minimal. Doubt the dividend is even close to be at risk.

    Here's a link to my cash flow article.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Also as far as subs and churn, obviously there will be peaks and valleys in counts, but the key metric will be first year end 2015 compared to 2014. Then going forward into 2016 quarter to quarter year over year comparisons (adjusted for PPV events).

    Patience is the key as nothing is built over night. As we are only now approaching the 1 year anniversary of the Network metrics, including converting social media to the Network, are any one's guess. Facebook figured out over a number of year's how to monetize the base.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The WWE Network Is An Investors Field Of Dreams [View instapost]
    As far as my suggestion to increase subs. George Barrios said that have over 100 ideas as to how to expand. I think management is starting to understand the great opportunities the Network presents. Was one of the more impressive c.c. as Barrios was not throwing out projections on subs and the potential as he had in the past. Reality in this case and giving guidance that just comes below actual numbers is what the Street and long term investors love.
    Feb 14, 2015. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The WWE Network Is An Investors Field Of Dreams [View instapost]
    Carl the model works as they should average over the 1 million over the 12 months. The critics point out how they destroyed PPV and lacked the vision that WWE just went the direction of the entertainment industry.
    Feb 13, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WWE And Why The Network Will Most Likely Succeed [View article]
    The release shows subs at the end of 2014 at 816,000. Hit the best case scenario I had above. Will revise the scenarios above for subs at the end of 1st Q.
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things To Watch For In WWE's Fourth-Quarter 2014 Earnings This Week [View article]
    Michael appreciate your feedback. I think the metrics will be defined as we go along. I agree there will be peaks and valleys of sub count based on PPV events. To me the metrics are extremely fascinating. I think the year-to-year comparison and then drill down to quarter-to-quarter comparisons of sub counts will be the measure of growth of the network. The first key stat is sub count as of 12/31/14. As the Network had a 6 month comparison until late in the year, the next true comparison will be sub count as of 12/31/15. In 2016 that's when the quarter-to-quarter comparisons can be made aligning the PPV events to the count. Hopefully management can properly paint a picture as to how the Network should be evaluated. Churn will always be present based on PPV events, but as base subscriber count grows will become less as a percentage of the total base that remains.
    Feb 12, 2015. 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things To Watch For In WWE's Fourth-Quarter 2014 Earnings This Week [View article]
    With $50,000,000 more in the bank in the 4th Q from a cable network, plus cash flow depletion decreasing substantially to only $10mil in the 3rd Q as Network startup costs have been incurred steadily since 2013, the 4th Q should show minimal losses at best. Also Michael as your articles always accentuate the negative, and for sure with past managements track record there is negatives, to hit the same metrics as PPV the bar has been set incredibly low. The new B/E for 2015 was about 850,000 subs. Also churn will always be in this product due to the emotional fan base. But churn should be reduced overtime as subs see the content on the site other than PPV and count increases based on PPV events. Finally, giving a month free is typically to Netflix, HBO and other paid subscription services.
    Feb 9, 2015. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakdown Of WWE Historical Dividend And Return Of Capital Payouts And Future Value [View article]
    WWE put $54 million of cash towards it's network and that was a major reason, along with the dividend, for cash depletion. Also the film division has been a source of depletion of funds. It's way too early to say the Network hasn't panned out as it's still less than 12 months old. The site content has gotten exceptionally better than when I subscribed in August. The site will always be wrestling oriented with PPV, new content and wrestling history drawing avid fans to the site. One of the biggest keys going forward is foreign expansion. The sub count at the end of the 1st Q along with that at the end of the 2nd Q are 2 extremely stats going forward. The key is going forward.

    Appreciate your feedgback ASdW.
    Feb 9, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WWE Network Conjures Memories Of Internet Stock Bubbles [View article]
    Chris very interesting article again. However, most comparisons are based on past metrics that apply to the old model and need time to play out before accurate comparisons can be made to the new model. After all PPV's go back prior to the turn of the century. It's difficult now to say at this time how management is going to monetize social media going forward. When I bought Facebook at $38/share the critics were also seeing no legitimate value to the company as no one knew how they were going to monetize the Facebook member. They figured it out and thus the stock went up on mobile revenue. Now the pattern is set where they buy a company like Instagram and figure out how to monetize it.

    Management did change the metrics from EBIDTA to OIBDA as it was obvious that the Studio numbers were dragging them down among other things. As for current stock price, past on an analysis I did a few months back, it's right in the middle of a historical range. However, that being said, I really believe OTT was the way to go as the base sub count and comparisons are favorably year over year, the company is in a better position on so many fronts to monetize other revenue streams from its success.
    Feb 5, 2015. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WWE: Burning Through Cash And Running Out Of Options [View article]
    That's okay Casey. Like I said before I only know one stock like this one as I have an extremely large percentage of my portfolio in it. Not something a CFP like myself at 60 years of age should even contemplate. But I just think when you look at simply the extremely large social media fan base and the cutting edge technology brought about by streaming it's just a matter of time where one crosses over to the other side. And your not talking about a large percentage of the fan base either. If you have some time read my new article on the Instablog. Appreciate any feedback either positive or negative or both.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Appreciate,
    Steve
    Feb 2, 2015. 12:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WWE: Burning Through Cash And Running Out Of Options [View article]
    Sorry Casey the last article posted should have been this one.

    http://bit.ly/1CQjomE

    Also forgot to mention there b/e for 2015 is substantially below the 1 mil sub count.

    As you can tell I do not have much of a life as I write only about WWE.
    Feb 1, 2015. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
84 Comments
41 Likes