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Steven Breazzano

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  • Ready For A Rebound? Gilead's $1000 Pill [View article]
    (FYI - I am Long - and added to my position today)
    Apr 17 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready For A Rebound? Gilead's $1000 Pill [View article]
    This is a good article from a generalist investing point of view. One major issue I want to comment on:

    "The competition is growing so pricing is sure to come down. Merck (MRK) and AbbVie (ABBV) both have new drugs to treat the disease and are being well received. However, even if we give a big haircut to the cost of the drug and earnings, the stock is now cheap and is trading at 17x 2014 consensus and 11x 2015."

    This doesn't happen in the pharmaceutical industry. It is unlikely in my opinion that AbbVie or Merck or BMY (another real player) come in at a discount. Pharma companies with efficacious regimens don't compete on price. They will price similar. It hasn't happened in other indications - see Multiple Sclerosis, Autoimmune (RA/Crohns, etc.). These examples come to mind immediately.

    The reason for this is simply no incentive to do so. Market share will likely be the same, and revenue will be lower. As long as insurance reimburses, doctor's wont factor in price into the prescribing decisions. AbbVie and Merck will devise a marketing campaign that tries to differentiate on points other than cost. Although, there is the potential for insurers to say, "ok, you've all been using Sovaldi now, let's go use AbbVie and Merck drugs because we[insurer] get 30% off". I think this scenario which is what express scripts is trying to create will fail. It has never succeeded. Imagine the *&*#!-storm in the public backlash if that happened.

    Furthermore, congress has no authority to regulate drug pricing. Other articles have written on this.

    Just saw a press release today saying England is paying $31 M to treat 500 patients with Sovaldi. Comes out to ~60k a year. For those of you who aren't familiar with European drug pricing, suffice to say England doesn't pay much for drugs, if at all. This is a big deal and speaks to the cost effectiveness of the product.
    Apr 17 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignyta: Now Public With A Targeted Oncology Pipeline Poised For Success [View article]
    Let's see how the story shakes out. As you've seen, Biotech has been clobbered, and underfollowed biotech stocks are going to get hit worse than most. But, the company has raised additional funds, and has approximately ~90 M in cash with a 127 M market cap. EV is 40 M or so. This is a long term play.
    Apr 15 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sharp Pullback In Celldex Could Be A Window Of Opportunity [View article]
    "I calculate $16 per share in value from CDX-011 on the basis of a 50% chance of approval and $900 million in revenue in 2021. While 50% is below the average success rate of Phase III clinical studies, Phase III success rates in oncology are well below average."

    This is probably a good assumption and is supported by some market data.

    "From 2004 to 2011, the overall rate of transitioning from phase I to FDA approval was 6.7% for oncology, while it was 12.1% for all other therapeutic areas.9 The big drop in phase III success for oncology trials is the primary driver of this two-fold difference. As little as 45% of oncology therapeutics progress from phase III to NDA/ BLA versus 64% for all other areas" - See more at: http://bit.ly/1ijRNQS

    For some more color on the approval, unless CLDX drops more than half again, the market cap implies we have a respectable shot at success (feuerstein-ratain)

    http://bit.ly/1ijRPbs
    Apr 14 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital: Time To Stop The Buyback [View article]
    Good article and comments. Any comment from anyone on what the stand-alone value of all the components may be? (And how does it compare to the current price of 15$ for ACAS...)
    Apr 8 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Holdings' Q4 Earnings: More Negatives Than Positives [View article]
    WIN has over $8.8 B in debt outstanding. Paying off $200 M is what, 2%? Let's not get too excited. Why not cut the dividend and start really putting a dent into the debt, move up to become investment grade and then save even more with better interest rate and less interest payments.
    Mar 6 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Holdings' Q4 Earnings: More Negatives Than Positives [View article]
    I'm a WIN shareholder - and I must confess I don't see the point of maintaining a $1 dividend. The yield is >12%, clearly the market is anticipating a cut. Why not give it to them? What is to be gained by straining the cash flow?

    I"m not sure the dividend at this point is a prudent use of capital. Cut the dividend in half (6% yield - enough to entice new shareholders), initiate a buyback with 25% of the dividend savings, pay down debt with the excess capital flow + 25% of the dividend savings, become investment grade (if you don't think WIN's dividend policy hurts their credit rating - you're nuts). In another 2 or 3 years we will absolutely be trading higher as the fundamentals of WIN improve and the debt burden is lower.
    Mar 5 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let Questcor's Short Squeeze Fool You, Major Risk Remains [View article]
    My impression was QCOR pre-released prescription numbers at JPMorgan. Something like 2500? Flat over Q4 (this is a good thing - Q4 is usually weak seasonally). They also talked about a "tax inversion" strategy.

    Long QCOR.
    Feb 19 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Emerging Markets Cheap? [View article]
    This is a very interesting article. I agree with the authors contention that historical comparisons are a bit like comparing apples and oranges due to new companies, new economic times, new countries in the index, etc.

    However, looking at the chart, ~11 P/E does seem like a low. Maybe it goes down to 9 or 10x earnings, that's a real possibility. But averaging in at these values may prove prescient in the long run.

    Stock price appreciation comes from 2 sources: P/E remaining stable with growing "E", which is not really addressed in the article. There will still be growth in E. It's clearly not as much as it has been, and there are real structural problems. I think fed tapering is of less concern relative to the real structural problems in key emerging markets that really has the potential to slow down economic growth. The situation is grim, but it doesn't have the contagion feeling just yet IMHO.

    The 2nd, improvement in PE ratio is the focus of this article. If this is indeed a bottom, there will be a very nice 5 year return on the investment class.

    Overall, I think averaging into emerging markets is not a bad long term move here, but it may not be the bottom.
    Feb 13 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Anyone Really Surprised By The Recent Stock Market Sell-Off?! [View article]
    I've also added to Emerging Markets...I fear we may be too early, but as a whole I do not believe there will be a full-blown emerging market meltdown. We'll see!
    Feb 4 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Is Still A Bit Overpriced In Terms Of Dividend Yield [View article]
    Any reason there is no discussion of share buybacks? A lot of companies have chosen to initiate massive buyback programs instead of increase dividends. Suggests the continuation of a structural shift in corporate strategy, making the implications from a 1 factor (i.e. dividend yield) for market valuation less meaningful...
    Jan 29 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Grim Realities Of The Dialysis Market Will Result In Commercial Failure [View article]
    Although it's not dialysis, Logical thought raises an important issue - payer pushback. Let's also keep in mind that Sovaldi (Gilead's HCV drug) is simply fantastic and represents clear benefits for patients above and beyond the current standard of care yet there is sticker shock. While Zerenex won't be priced at 84k, the same issues remain. Non-inferiority does not equal premium pricing...
    Jan 27 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Grim Realities Of The Dialysis Market Will Result In Commercial Failure [View article]
    Ah the memories!

    As you can see, my due diligence approach is the same for all companies: ask the tough questions. I was actually bullish on Trius at the time (clearly believed the drug would reach the finish line soon), and simply seeking additional information around key questions. I recognized the positive points of differentiation of Trius' drug, and still wonder about its market penetration (It hasn't been launched yet in the US) However, note that it was acquired prior to marketing. For what it's worth, I liked Optimer and was long the stock prior to approval of their drug. They were also acquired by Cubist at the same time.
    Jan 22 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Grim Realities Of The Dialysis Market Will Result In Commercial Failure [View article]
    PhosLo is a calcium based binder. The Fresenius example is apples and oranges. Velphoro and Zerenex will compete against each other.
    Jan 22 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Grim Realities Of The Dialysis Market Will Result In Commercial Failure [View article]
    Thanks for the additional information. It has already been delayed quite a while, and I would not expect this to continue.
    Jan 22 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
355 Comments
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