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Steven D. Friedman

 
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  • Overlooked Berry Plastics Offers Strong Cash Flows And Low Valuation [View article]
    ericmcarter makes a valid point.... the above calculations do not include the roughly $300 million BERY will likely pay to prior shareholders (Apollo) in the coming years. Specifically, BERY must pay 85% of the cash savings it realizes by utilizing NOLs attributable to periods prior to IPO. Management estimates total payment to be $300-350 million. As far as how this would impact my valuation.... the simplest answer is to consider this extra $325 million as debt to be paid down. At 113 million shares outstanding ($325/113), that is roughly $3 per share in stock price this would knock off. So taking this into account, you could knock the price target of $22-37, down to $19-34.
    Dec 19 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital River: Little Downside With Significant Upside [View article]
    Definitely was disappointing. not much sounded good on the call... thus the little downside from when i wrote the article. clearly it looks worse since it had risen beforehand. ultimately though, while numbers look a bit different, this thing is still pretty cheap. Although admittedly, it doesn't have much to get excited about other than valuation right now. I don't expect it to really get much lower than the $13 level or so it set yesterday.
    Aug 2 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital River: Little Downside With Significant Upside [View article]
    fair comment on the AP. They also have $96M of LT investments you didn't mention..... But, if you include the negative working capital, you do come to lower net cash balance in the $8-9 range. Still incredibly cheap though.
    Jun 15 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: A Cheap Solar/LED Play [View article]
    Yes, he sold 238k shares in mid Sept.. but he had just exercised 238k options. That's not that unusual.
    Nov 22 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: A Cheap Solar/LED Play [View article]
    Nice catch. Sorry about that. The EV calculation does have an error. The enterprise value should read $519 million. (It was mistakenly adding cash instead of subtracting).
    Oct 31 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Smaller Cap Names May Be Due to Outperform [View article]
    Hi,
    Essentially I downloaded a list of publicly traded names and their current market caps (several financial websites have this type of data). Then I got the performance during H1'11 for each name. Knowing the current market cap, and it's performance during H1'11, I could calculate the market cap at the start of the year. Then I did the same analysis for each prior year, and then analyzed the data.
    I didn't include <$100M market caps because I don't think the data would be valuable (based on how I analyze). If an $80M market cap name from 2003 ended up going bust... it would never show up in my analysis. This could also be said of a larger company, but I figured it was much more likely for the smaller companies.
    I don't know offhand about the Russell 2000 question.... sorry.
    Aug 5 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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