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Steven Grant  

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  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    6228371--

    At this point I do not own either GILD or SLW. I appreciate the suggestions although I tend to invest my money in the least exciting areas possible as I'm a cheapskate.
    Jul 24, 2014. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    d_r_l_1976,

    It's a good questions and I'd appreciate hearing your views. It's not something I've thought about or researched at this point so I really don't have a perspective. I guess what I'd want to know, before forming an opinion, is the economics and growth potential of this market compared to CEMIG's other energy products. With the boom in shale oil and gas and the continual improvement in solar economics everywhere in the world I'm expecting 10-20 years of uncertainty in the price of these commodities so it's not intuitively obvious to me that investing in gas is strategically better than investing in other energy products. Long winded way of saying, I'm just not sure.
    Jul 18, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    d_r_l_1976--

    Totally agree, the extraordinary dividend was surprising, but welcome. I remain concerned at the magnitude of the dividends as I imagine there must be some compelling growth investments or acquisitions which would benefit from additional capital. However, getting 10-20% dividends while expecting 5% is not all bad.
    Jul 2, 2014. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    planebiz--

    CIG pays irregularly, but not quarterly. They usually pay twice a year on a schedule set during their annual meeting. This year they expect to pay in June and December, but noted those dates could be moved. The payment is based on distributing at least 50% of profits. They may also pay special dividends every other year if money is available and their by-laws allow them to pay additional monies whenever they have excess reserves. The best history of their dividend payments is at this link: http://bit.ly/1cWYCBE
    Jun 2, 2014. 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    d_r_l_1976 -- I haven't seen any news that would drive the 5% drop. There was a very negative review of CIG on The Street published on Friday, but hard to imagine that would have been the driver. The drop happened on low volume relative to the averages so an ETF or sector rotation might have been the cause. I noticed that EBR and CPFL were also down, though not as much.

    CEMIG just published a new EBITDA guidance document and investors could be reacting to that. I just glanced at it, haven't studied the entire document yet, but it appeared to show a rather large drop off in revenue after 2015, perhaps the investor community is absorbing that forecast. I need to read it more carefully, but with a quick read it did raise some questions.
    May 27, 2014. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    Diogo Rossi--

    Thank you for the comment. Just speculation on my part, but I don't see a long term negative impact on CEMIG whether Rousseff or anyone else is in power. Economics has an inexorable power and unless the country makes horrendous choices (like N. Korea) I believe there will be enough push back to wrestle the train back onto the tracks. Power generation is essential for growth, if Brazil wants growth they will want power and that desire will push for sufficient shareholder returns to ensure continued investment. Hakuna matada--if one waits long enough. CIG does have one advantage that they are selling a significant portion of their power on the free market and those rates are rising. If the drought continues it will raise costs, but it will also raise rates. At least ANEEL is recognizing the cost issue and is raising tariffs when appropriate. It's not like Argentina where tariffs in the phone utilities have been stuck for 12 years.

    That being said, I think the market will push shares prices down again if the PT are re-elected as there is some speculation that Rousseff will lose at this point, so that may create a buying opportunity.

    I see Lazard recently bought a 5% interest in CEMIG, so if we're dumb at least we're dumb with some smart people.
    May 21, 2014. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    Needawin--

    Thank you for your comment. The quarterly results at least provide some evidence we may be on the right path, hopefully 2014 will be a watershed year.
    May 19, 2014. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    Zbignue--

    Thank you, it's an interesting company so it's fun to analyze. CIG is one of my top positions so I ride this roller coaster with both exultation and loathing, but expect the 10-year results to be worth the 1-year dips.
    May 19, 2014. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: Headline Risks And 10-20% Dividend Rewards [View article]
    The official word from CEMIG is the dividend payments will be made in two installments by June 30th and December 30th, but "these dates may be moved forward in accordance with the availability of cash and at the option of the Executive Board." They could also choose to pay more as interest on equity or special dividends.
    May 16, 2014. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: Headline Risks And 10-20% Dividend Rewards [View article]
    Yes, I just submitted an article to seeking alpha with some comments on the 1Q results, should be out in a few days. Directionally I thought they were very strong, now we just need to see sustained performance over time.

    Jaguara was also good news. Any delay means more unexpected revenue and more time to find alternatives sources. I was amazed that the appeals court was split 2 - 2, that means it could go either way once they complete he next review.
    May 16, 2014. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: Headline Risks And 10-20% Dividend Rewards [View article]
    Minutes of the latest Board meeting are interesting http://bit.ly/QnOXzr

    In particular, page 5 of 14 is worth scanning as it provides a line by line breakdown of the dividend and interest on equity calculation for the 2013 net profits that will be paid out in 2014.
    May 9, 2014. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: Headline Risks And 10-20% Dividend Rewards [View article]
    Assuming everyone received the final decision from the general meeting regarding 2013 dividends, but here's the link: http://bit.ly/1hUcJhr

    As a shareholder I find this all a bit abstruse, but from CEMIG's perspective part of the 2013 dividend was already paid in December of 2013 and another tranche will be paid in two installations in 2014. If my math is right they are paying out 51.5% of 2013 earnings and have the option to improve the timing and the amount in 2014 pending availability of cash.
    Apr 30, 2014. 06:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: Headline Risks And 10-20% Dividend Rewards [View article]
    Here's the link to email alerts and updates from CEMIG: http://bit.ly/1fbpS6K
    Apr 24, 2014. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My KISS Dividend Portfolio: 1st Quarter 2014 Update [View article]
    Great article.

    You mention a concern about yield, "Another problem I began to encounter was that as my stocks increased in price, my portfolio yield fell." Would it make sense to calculate yield using your average purchase price for each position? I think that calculation would measure your actual yield. Using the current price measures yield for a new owner, not the higher yield you earn by holding positions that would have a much lower average price. For example, if you bought SAN when the dividend yield was 15% and held that position, you would be earning 15% on your investment forever even though a new buyer would have a yield of 7% at current prices. You don't want to be forced to sell because yield drops relative to a measure that doesn't reflect your true economic gain.
    Apr 15, 2014. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: Headline Risks And 10-20% Dividend Rewards [View article]
    6228371--

    I don't follow PBR closely so I'm not sure whether this signals a general loosening of government policy on rates or if it's confined to the electric utility sector. The regulating body, ANEEL, does seem to recognize that investment is required or the country will suffer blackouts and diminished growth. CIG also has a presentation on their IR site now that explains the tariff change in great detail, worth a read if anyone wants more background than was provided in the press release.
    Apr 10, 2014. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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