Summary Of Economic Events For Week Ending 06 April 2012 [View instapost]
My normal weekend article is up at Econintersect showing how your understanding of unemployment is being corrupted by the way the unemployment numbers are derived. http://bit.ly/HjH8Bv Also a great post by Elliott Morss explains why the US banking crisis is not over yet. http://bit.ly/Ipb6py I have just posted a review of consumer credit which shows it is still expanding faster than economic expansion. http://bit.ly/HjH5Wg we have posted an opinion piece from Rodger Mitchell who is attacking Obama for capitulating to the right. http://bit.ly/Ipb7tB and finally, my partner John Lounsbury has posted a controversial article on when multifamily residences. http://bit.ly/HjH8BB
The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
Econintersect uses employment to population ratios, not unemployment rates in any of its analysis. However, our approach to Okun's law does NOT approach using any variant of labor slack (such as unemployment) - but uses employment side numbers only.
yet the results are the same - there is a deviation. i am not a quant, so having this deviation is interesting (would like to understand why) - but i tend to believe the theory that momentum governs until it no longer does. the jobs data is overall mediocre - but the momentum is bright.
The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
Dancing, all data comes with buts.
i make no mistake in believing the new jobs are as good as the old jobs - and this should be a topic of a complete post.
i continuously struggle to find balance in my posts - as i want to convey the greyness of the data. i tend to error on the gloomy side when i feel the public perception is too rosy, and error on the rosy side when the public perception is too gloomy.
with word count and hyperlink limitations in posts, i find i must either cover subjects with increasing narrowness - or must deliver a broad overview lacking detail or adequate qualifications.
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
these are not gubmint numbers. all numbers are correlated across a number of government and non-government sources (but not in real time). i am a conspiracy theorist, and i find no evidence in any numbers i report (except labor statistics) of an evil hand playing with the data.
labor is a different issue because the headlines are based on flawed methodology.
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
shevle - the data in this post include the revision you mention. i could build a negative outlook article, but i cannot use current trend lines to do it. the markets always turn while consensus opinion is negative. i personally believe home prices are still to high based on income IF home prices do not appreciate. but i cannot quantitatively support this opinion.
Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
Ten, i do inventory correlation also - and the inventory to sales ratios are in the historical normal range (on the low side). this would insinuate that there is no unusual stocking event occurring - and that transport data can be correlated using the non recession years. http://bit.ly/AkW81p
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
Ross, you are using an industrial engineers view of productivity - not an economic one. here is a standard caveat i place in articles where i review productivity http://bit.ly/zrh3Jv
"Productivity is determined using monetary criteria, and does not recognize outsourced man hours – in other words, if a business cuts half of its workforce by outsourcing a sub-component or sub-service, this would be a 50% productivity improvement."
in other words, we have no way to know if real productivity is increasing or not. <steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
Logical, i never rely on one data point - for a variety of reasons (including the one you mention). rail has competition, and you must look at all modes of transportation. consider that rail LEADS all other transport data points (release dates) - and weak rail data puts me on a higher level of alert when reviewing the others. <steven>
Weekly Economic Summary For Week Ending 25May2012 Still Shows Weakly Improving Economy [View instapost]
What The Economy Is Saying: Another Strange Week [View article]
rail is contracting and you did not reference my latest post.
http://bit.ly/IGlZ7S
Summary Of Economic Events For Week Ending 06 April 2012 [View instapost]
http://bit.ly/HjH8Bv
Also a great post by Elliott Morss explains why the US banking crisis is not over yet.
http://bit.ly/Ipb6py
I have just posted a review of consumer credit which shows it is still expanding faster than economic expansion.
http://bit.ly/HjH5Wg
we have posted an opinion piece from Rodger Mitchell who is attacking Obama for capitulating to the right.
http://bit.ly/Ipb7tB
and finally, my partner John Lounsbury has posted a controversial article on when multifamily residences.
http://bit.ly/HjH8BB
The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
yet the results are the same - there is a deviation. i am not a quant, so having this deviation is interesting (would like to understand why) - but i tend to believe the theory that momentum governs until it no longer does. the jobs data is overall mediocre - but the momentum is bright.
The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
i make no mistake in believing the new jobs are as good as the old jobs - and this should be a topic of a complete post.
i continuously struggle to find balance in my posts - as i want to convey the greyness of the data. i tend to error on the gloomy side when i feel the public perception is too rosy, and error on the rosy side when the public perception is too gloomy.
with word count and hyperlink limitations in posts, i find i must either cover subjects with increasing narrowness - or must deliver a broad overview lacking detail or adequate qualifications.
The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
labor is a different issue because the headlines are based on flawed methodology.
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
like your graph - and as the wli is a business cycle forecast tool - there should be a high correlation between stocks and the wli.
Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
http://bit.ly/AkW81p
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
you are using an industrial engineers view of productivity - not an economic one. here is a standard caveat i place in articles where i review productivity http://bit.ly/zrh3Jv
"Productivity is determined using monetary criteria, and does not recognize outsourced man hours – in other words, if a business cuts half of its workforce by outsourcing a sub-component or sub-service, this would be a 50% productivity improvement."
in other words, we have no way to know if real productivity is increasing or not.
<steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
i never rely on one data point - for a variety of reasons (including the one you mention). rail has competition, and you must look at all modes of transportation. consider that rail LEADS all other transport data points (release dates) - and weak rail data puts me on a higher level of alert when reviewing the others.
<steven>