yes - i have read this but the weakness was caused by the weather also. one month is not a trend unless it fits within the existing trend. the trend is downward - and March fits into this trend. does bad weather help sales - hell no! but i ask you when was the last time you heard that the data was good because of good weather?
all of these indices are noisy. census pasteurizes and homogenizes the data to the extent you do not understand whether you are coming or going. there are a lot of dynamics in play - but i suggest the number of paydays in the month may be the governing dynamic. there were 5 paydays in March. this tailwind should have pushed up retail sales.
and i also am uncertain, and that is why i wrote it the way i did. i do think that if i was not invested that i would increase my holdings right now - and if i was invested, that i would increase my holdings. this is not 2008 - and the dynamics are considerably different (and i consider the possibility of a major correction to be pretty low).
but the real point is that the eurocrisis is not necessarily negative to the USA economy. we are seeing today inflows from Europe (and Japan).
Government Debt Is Not Under Control [View article]
maximusIII - this is the right question. this post was a think piece. too many argue theory without thinking through mechanics. i personally believe sovereign debt needs to be a problem. the problem is the way we account for it - and stupidly pay interest on the debt so that an economic growth spurts start crowding out the federal budget. i want people to understand the disingenuous arguments on all sides
Weekly Economic Review: Seems The Economy Is Great, Or Is It? [View instapost]
Dancing - if either party had a plan to get the USA house in order, i would be encouraged. but neither do, and a stupid solution being compromised with another stupid solution does not make a good solution.
i do not see any solution using the current economic and fiscal tools we believe are proper - therefore the solution is in tools most are rejecting, or in tools we have yet to envision. on tool - i see no reason for the government to issue debt documents, but on the other hand, i fear the government would destroy the economy.
but in all cases we need to regear the economy. our social programs are not in sync with the way the fiscal part of the economy is structure. there are many ways to do this.
Falling Down The Economic Elevator Shaft [View article]
good point -the cuts in the USA are far from what has been seen in southern Europe. Glad this was the first comment so we can understand that federal spending rises over the next few years in dollar terms but falls relative to the size of the economy.
This article was drafted in response to those who believe it is possible to cut spending to get the federal budget in order.
Suppressing Economic Growth By Taxation [View article]
Bingo - there is a big difference between tax rates and what the taxpayer gets from the government. if the tax rate was 80%, and the government paid housing, food, transportation, higher education and medical expenses - that would be a good tax rate.
Suppressing Economic Growth By Taxation [View article]
all good points. consider though that europe has a large VAT around 20% which was not included, and some states (like mine) have no state taxes. no chart tell the correct story for a particular individual..
having worked in several countries on the list - i think the list is "relatively" correct - but as you point out may be lacking in expressing the total tax load.
Does Anyone Really Understand What Is Going On With Employment? [View article]
you are correct - the labels in the graphs were reversed. however the point remains the same that the young hold fewer jobs as a percent of the population, and the old hold more jobs as a percentage of the population.
Are Student Loans Destroying Consumption? [View article]
I believe the biggest problem is the people who never go to university. most people leave high school with no skills or real world ability (balancing checkbooks, trade skills, computer skills, etc). if you want a nation of idiots, the lower and secondary education system is preparing most to be idiots.
The Trade Deficit Grows The U.S. Debt [View article]
great links pigdog. although my opinion is contrary to the argument laid out in these two links - i believe one is educated by by understanding the other side of the coin. these arguments have validity as the USA monetary and fiscal policy is based on handling currency operations like the USA had a back currency - so the potential positive advantage of a fiat currency is not being utilized.
The Fiscal Cliff Will Destroy The Economy? [View article]
you are right that tax rate correlation to disposable income cannot be universally true. if the government took 100%, obviously that would remove all income. but this statement was within the context of historical changes in the USA (and not France or Zimbabwe).
Should We Take ECRI's Recession Call Seriously? [View instapost]
i am not a person who takes a single metric and runs with it. even a metric which historically been 100% accurate fails because of a specific set of conditions with manifest. as an example, our economic forecast uses a weighted set of approximately 10 metrics which we believe are accurate in real time. off the top of my head, i believe two of the 10 metrics were in contraction.
i am not a lover of using monetary metrics (as you know) - so obviously i am not using this for any of my forecasting. i would use this as a secondary or confirming metric to what the other metrics are saying. i tend to lean heaviest on transport metrics, followed by import metrics. i would love to rely on certain employment metrics but i do not trust them in real time.
Should We Take ECRI's Recession Call Seriously? [View instapost]
the bls data is the worst for getting it right in real time. they need at least 6 months, or a year and six months :) of course looking back at employment in the past recessions using historical data - what you are saying fits.
a forecasting tool we use for forecasting employment is at the same levels (and downtrending) when the USA entered the great recession.
Should We Take ECRI's Recession Call Seriously? [View instapost]
it will not be a credit driven crisis like 2007 / 8, but it will be a lower consumption event - driven in part because the great recessions debt imbalance has not cleared yet. at main street level (which is how our index is geared), it may not even be noticeable.
in 4Q2012, there will be a significant headwind from inventory depletion - and my bet is there will be a slight reduction in consumption based on trend lines. this would be more than enough to put the USA in a technical recession.
Economic Overview - A Gnarly Economy [View instapost]
all of these indices are noisy. census pasteurizes and homogenizes the data to the extent you do not understand whether you are coming or going. there are a lot of dynamics in play - but i suggest the number of paydays in the month may be the governing dynamic. there were 5 paydays in March. this tailwind should have pushed up retail sales.
Is The Market Overbought? [View article]
but the real point is that the eurocrisis is not necessarily negative to the USA economy. we are seeing today inflows from Europe (and Japan).
Government Debt Is Not Under Control [View article]
Weekly Economic Review: Seems The Economy Is Great, Or Is It? [View instapost]
i do not see any solution using the current economic and fiscal tools we believe are proper - therefore the solution is in tools most are rejecting, or in tools we have yet to envision. on tool - i see no reason for the government to issue debt documents, but on the other hand, i fear the government would destroy the economy.
but in all cases we need to regear the economy. our social programs are not in sync with the way the fiscal part of the economy is structure. there are many ways to do this.
Falling Down The Economic Elevator Shaft [View article]
This article was drafted in response to those who believe it is possible to cut spending to get the federal budget in order.
Weekly Summary: Sequester Is NOT The Big Story [View instapost]
Suppressing Economic Growth By Taxation [View article]
Suppressing Economic Growth By Taxation [View article]
having worked in several countries on the list - i think the list is "relatively" correct - but as you point out may be lacking in expressing the total tax load.
Does Anyone Really Understand What Is Going On With Employment? [View article]
Are Student Loans Destroying Consumption? [View article]
The Trade Deficit Grows The U.S. Debt [View article]
The Fiscal Cliff Will Destroy The Economy? [View article]
Should We Take ECRI's Recession Call Seriously? [View instapost]
i am not a lover of using monetary metrics (as you know) - so obviously i am not using this for any of my forecasting. i would use this as a secondary or confirming metric to what the other metrics are saying. i tend to lean heaviest on transport metrics, followed by import metrics. i would love to rely on certain employment metrics but i do not trust them in real time.
Should We Take ECRI's Recession Call Seriously? [View instapost]
a forecasting tool we use for forecasting employment is at the same levels (and downtrending) when the USA entered the great recession.
Should We Take ECRI's Recession Call Seriously? [View instapost]
in 4Q2012, there will be a significant headwind from inventory depletion - and my bet is there will be a slight reduction in consumption based on trend lines. this would be more than enough to put the USA in a technical recession.