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Steven Hansen

 
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  • GDP Is Misleading Us To Believe The Economy Is Improving [View article]
    the methodology has not changed

    some countries do year-over-year, others quarter over quarter

    i cannot answer your third question
    Sep 9 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Says The Economy Will Not Pick Up This Year [View instapost]
    the census seasonal adjusting methodology sucks :) i have written posts in the past showing how if you add up their monthly gains it ends up being two to three times the real growth.
    Aug 24 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare And Part Time Jobs Growth [View article]
    you can always blame demographics - but consider the biggest decline in employment levels has been with white males under 44 years old (and it gets worse for those who only have a high school diploma or did not graduate high school). http://bit.ly/1qD1iwz
    Jul 15 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare And Part Time Jobs Growth [View article]
    Yes. one month of data is not a trend. I want to point this out because the household survey is noisy because it is a survey (and not hard data) - and the data needs to be trended. I am not arguing that your data you pointed out was wrong - just an event that happens many times every year.

    I also want to point out that the household survey includes farm workers while the establishment survey does not.

    I wrote this post because ones hatred of Obamacare (i for one wish Obamacare never happened because i believe it is a tax and not a step towards universal health care) should not allow cherry picking of data to show only negative aspects. i can find no data (other than anecdotal) that Obamacare has skewed the relationship between part time and full time jobs.
    Jul 14 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare And Part Time Jobs Growth [View article]
    The Labor force participation rate is the labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population. This "proves" that a smaller percent of the population wants to work. One would be hard pressed to show any effect of Obamacare in this statistic. http://bit.ly/1jonZpq

    The USA employment stats generally have been in a decline since 2000 - and I believe his was caused by a variety of issues including global trade (USA government allowing a taxed USA product being sold against an imported item which was never taxed).
    Jul 13 06:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ending The USA Export Import Bank Is Bad For The Economy [View article]
    i guess job creation is not important. i sense you do not believe that certain countries are not better at doing things than others. this is what trade is all about. why limit your ability to trade?
    Jun 30 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bad Start To 2Q2014 GDP [View instapost]
    on the other hand, there are several papers on economic stall speed which conclude gdp under 2% for any length of time is a recession trigger.

    bbro - i am not a pumper - trying to show only good. i am on record saying a recession is not eminent - but this does not preclude me from looking at data to the contrary. trends are good until they are no longer good. i always have in the back of my mind that "this time is different" as the economy moves with a morphing group of dynamics. it is obvious we do not understand interaction or most recessions could be avoided.
    Jun 1 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robotics May Be Good For U.S. Employment [View article]
    ever watch "Blade Runner"? http://bit.ly/Rpjde2

    :)
    May 25 08:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Further Evidence Economic Rate Of Growth Is Slowing [View instapost]
    no alarm being sounded. the usa economy had a terrible start last year also - and the cfnai is below last year. the purpose of these posts is to refute the growing chorus of people saying that the economy is improving (must be in their dreams).
    Mar 30 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should There Be Optimism On U.S. Export Growth? [View article]
    oil imports do not effect trends whether you include it or not. my last analysis which much of it is based on removing crude imports: http://bit.ly/1m29hkU
    Mar 24 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Is Income Constrained [View article]
    i just published January 2014 consumer credit. http://bit.ly/MYqa3j
    Mar 9 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Is Income Constrained [View article]
    transfer payments are included.
    Mar 9 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Greed And Productive Use Of Money [View article]
    i see the decline of unions caused by automation, political factors which allowed imported untaxed products to compete against usa taxed products, and silly decisions made by company management and union leaders (they took there eyes off of long term goals in pursuit of short term benefits).
    Feb 10 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Greed And Productive Use Of Money [View article]
    they are both on the same base - and both include income earned overseas. most corporations run in shells anyway, and do not repatriate profits except when profits are down in the mother unit.
    Feb 9 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics Is Not A Big Deal [View article]
    Hello dancing diva. you are opening a different can of worms :)

    taxes are a drag on the economy if they take money which you would have spent had the government not taken it. i find the talk of government spending multipliers silly because no one takes into consideration what the multiplier would have been if the money had been spent directly by the taxpayer (instead of being taken away as a tax by the government).

    government multipliers are in play if the government really prints money (and does not borrow). the problem with the latest round of deficit spending is that the money did not stimulate the economy enough to be able to pay off the deficit with increased economic activity. this translates into an economic drag kicking in when interest rates rise on treasury borrowings. for now, the government has borrowed the money for almost nothing so it remains somewhat stimulative.
    Jan 26 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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