Crocs: It's the Product, Not the Economy [View article]
i would hate to be in this line of business. where i live the croc knockoff costs 2% to 10% of the real thing. they have to keep changing and changing to keep ahead. based on their sales, they need a new tactic to beat their competition.
Profiting from the Pickens Plan: FAN, Clean Fuels, Fuel Systems [View article]
the conversion to natural gas powered cars sounds like an excellent temporary fix for reducing the import of oil. the supplies are here. the spare capacity is here. the economic effect could begin to be felt in months (not years or decades). the technology is here. and the manufacturing capability is relatively easy to ramp up.
all power generating solutions take time to put in place. we should not be stupid enough to put all of our eggs in one basket. we should give incentives to all forms of non-hydrocarbon forms of power generation but not to the point where the investor is not sharing the risk of economic success.
How Can the Dollar Rally As Oil Soars? [View article]
even if we could see all the influences on the dollars relative value, i doubt if we could comprehend the impact of each on the dollar, or how they interact. nor do we really understand what the controllers of the dollar want it to do.
but the truth is that if i were in control of the dollar, i would gradually weaken its value to keep jobs and our economy growing. look at europe and the euro. they allowed their currency to strengthen and got the gift of cheap imported items, only slightly more expensive local items, and an economic engine which has failed. this is what happens when you subjugate your national currency for an international currency (eg you lose the ability of your currency to help control your economy).
as long as i control fiat dollars, i am able to manipulate international trade to my advantage. this is exactly what japan has been doing for years, and the rest of asia (especially china) is doing today.
what i cannot control is the price of energy which is the achilles heal. to me the war on terror is insignificant comparison.
Setting a New High Mark for the Next Housing Bubble [View article]
the logic presented by all is good on when or what the bottom will look like. the factors relating to what a house is worth should not be any different than a commercial property - but it is. the housing prices did not get out of whack - the credit lenders did. they lent money to people who could no way afford it. and then the ripple began derailing the market.
the bottom will happen when the supply of qualified buyers (translate this to mean people that can be approved for a loan) equals the amount of homes listed that month. it will then plateau until the backlog of unsold houses is reduced, and the homes which people did not bother to list because of the turmoil in the market are listed and that backlog reduced also.
i am not sure how the baby boomers who are beginning to retire will effect this but i don't think their effect will be positive.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
i cut my teeth in the nuclear industry, and there is not a chance in hell (even if we were willing) to put a nuke plant on line in ten years if we were willing to do so and started today. the engineers and manufacturing ability were wiped out in the 80's. and even then, the next plant we wanted to build may be many years beyond that. it really would be 15 years before any real benefit would be seen. and since the last generation of nukes were built, the ones on the drawing boards are a vast improvement in the area of safety.
as far as disposal of nuke waste is concerned - you have to want to have a solution before you can have one.
for an form of energy to really be economically viable, the energy must be able to be provided 24 hours per day. i am aware of only one solar project which meets this test, and no wind project currently do. without being able to provide 24 hours per day, you must still build the conventional electrical generating stations - and then just produce less power when the alternate energy sources can contribute. this is a double whammy for consumers - we pay to build the conventional plants, and we subsidize the alternative plants.
Is There Clear Sign We've Entered a Recession? [View article]
if i were a professional economist, i would not risk my reputation making any statements on recession. a recession to me is a collapsing of an economy below the levels which it was operating. too many factors in our economy are pointed downward to hang your hat on simply gnp.
Experts Tell Congress: To Consumers, It's a Recession [View article]
our society is no stronger than the weakest person. it does not take socialism to help the weakest (look to singapore). we cannot afford to let them fail.
More Bad News for the Anti-Ethanol Crowd [View article]
interesting Bush administration response to the issue of how biofuel production effects the price of fuel in America, and its effect on the prices of American and worldwide food.
the main thrust of this report was to say if you do anything to disturb the status quo (making 9 billion gallons of ethanol from corn and soybeans this year, and increasing production every year thereafter) - you are going to pay more for gasoline from 25 cents to 35 cents per gallon. further, this report said the food price increase for the consumer (based on cpi calculations) would add less than 0.7% to the cpi for all foods.
let me think. the price of corn and soybeans have doubled in two years. a large minority of the world population barely has enough income for food and the price of a staple in many of their diets has doubled.
i agree with the report that we do not want to be hasty in making any changes before we educate ourselves on biofuels. i was a big proponent of biofuels. but this year has opened my eyes to the effects on the food prices due to using food we eat to make gasoline.
why not remove the $0.51 per gallon ethanol blenders tax credit for starters, and let market forces decide whether we should eat corn and soy, or burn it in our cars.
Washington Needs to Trim the Fat, Not Tax More [View article]
we are going to vote for whatever candidate we see will make our lives better (translate this to mean whichever candidate will make us the wealthiest). this is one piece of historical fact which will repeat in the next election.
with inflation affecting the lower income groups disproportionately, it will be a hard sell to the people below obama's rich definition that they should vote for mccain. obama has even cleverly proposed to exempt from taxes the retired who earn less than $50K.
one final thought for those who like conspiracy theories. are the power brokers manipulating the market now to try to create a more rosy feeling for the election?
The Fat Lady's Not Singing Yet for the Economy [View article]
to me the market has repriced itself to the future earnings potential, some would say the rally which began last week was a sign the market had over corrected - especially in financials.
please tell me that is true because i am thinking the big money people are creating a mini-rally to pull the fools back in to financials so that they can get out.
Stock Markets Nearing Important Bottom [View article]
i wish somebody would demonstrate how this is the same old sh*t happening. yes, yes, yes.....market down, investors gloomy, etc, etc. historic cycles, blah, blah.
but if you examine the universe of data present today, it seems a lot different. we are running too close to our energy threshold to continue economic expansion, the dollar is no longer the currency of refuge. the center of economic power is shifting from west to east. these are not temporary issues the market can simply rebound from (such as credit crisis and a simple recession).
Oil Shocks, and What They Hold for the US Economy [View article]
to drill or not to drill. eventually we will drill whether it is now or later....but for sure the discussions are now simply political hype.
however, i would not use an argument about how little benefit drilling for oil in alaska or offshore will bring because the same can be said of any of the alternate energy solutions proposed. we have to do everything possible (search for oil, nuclear, conservation, solar, wind, etc) to prevent an energy shortfall which will disproportionally effect the poor of the world.
i believe eventually an obvious energy pathway will emerge. greenhouse gas emitting solutions are doomed, but any fool can recognize that it will take more than your lifetime to discover, manufacture, and install whatever the final solution(s) entails.
your elected representatives took their eye off of the ball beginning on 9/11. they thought the way to fight a war on terror was with guns. everybody forgot that economics is the tool of modern warfare. a lot of money has been wasted.
there are a lot more possible scenarios than Mr. Stansberry penned. there are many events which will effect how this crisis plays out which cannot be foreseen. and with the shift of global economic power from the west to the east, there are too many changed conditions to use historical data to project the future.
now that our elected officials have screwed up the war on terror, let us see how they will do on this new economic crisis. really, we should not re-elect anyone in currently in office. and for sure the same party cannot control the presidency and the congress.
preparing for a doomsday senario is a good exercise - and i would not discount its possiblility. however, it is not inevitable.
Crocs: It's the Product, Not the Economy [View article]
Profiting from the Pickens Plan: FAN, Clean Fuels, Fuel Systems [View article]
all power generating solutions take time to put in place. we should not be stupid enough to put all of our eggs in one basket. we should give incentives to all forms of non-hydrocarbon forms of power generation but not to the point where the investor is not sharing the risk of economic success.
How Can the Dollar Rally As Oil Soars? [View article]
but the truth is that if i were in control of the dollar, i would gradually weaken its value to keep jobs and our economy growing. look at europe and the euro. they allowed their currency to strengthen and got the gift of cheap imported items, only slightly more expensive local items, and an economic engine which has failed. this is what happens when you subjugate your national currency for an international currency (eg you lose the ability of your currency to help control your economy).
as long as i control fiat dollars, i am able to manipulate international trade to my advantage. this is exactly what japan has been doing for years, and the rest of asia (especially china) is doing today.
what i cannot control is the price of energy which is the achilles heal. to me the war on terror is insignificant comparison.
Setting a New High Mark for the Next Housing Bubble [View article]
the bottom will happen when the supply of qualified buyers (translate this to mean people that can be approved for a loan) equals the amount of homes listed that month. it will then plateau until the backlog of unsold houses is reduced, and the homes which people did not bother to list because of the turmoil in the market are listed and that backlog reduced also.
i am not sure how the baby boomers who are beginning to retire will effect this but i don't think their effect will be positive.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
as far as disposal of nuke waste is concerned - you have to want to have a solution before you can have one.
for an form of energy to really be economically viable, the energy must be able to be provided 24 hours per day. i am aware of only one solar project which meets this test, and no wind project currently do. without being able to provide 24 hours per day, you must still build the conventional electrical generating stations - and then just produce less power when the alternate energy sources can contribute. this is a double whammy for consumers - we pay to build the conventional plants, and we subsidize the alternative plants.
the road to hell is paved with good intentions,
Is There Clear Sign We've Entered a Recession? [View article]
On Oil, Gold and Flying Pigs [View article]
i cannot see how the financials are really undervalued to spark this rally. if i do jump in my finger will be on the sell button.
Experts Tell Congress: To Consumers, It's a Recession [View article]
More Bad News for the Anti-Ethanol Crowd [View article]
the main thrust of this report was to say if you do anything to disturb the status quo (making 9 billion gallons of ethanol from corn and soybeans this year, and increasing production every year thereafter) - you are going to pay more for gasoline from 25 cents to 35 cents per gallon. further, this report said the food price increase for the consumer (based on cpi calculations) would add less than 0.7% to the cpi for all foods.
let me think. the price of corn and soybeans have doubled in two years. a large minority of the world population barely has enough income for food and the price of a staple in many of their diets has doubled.
i agree with the report that we do not want to be hasty in making any changes before we educate ourselves on biofuels. i was a big proponent of biofuels. but this year has opened my eyes to the effects on the food prices due to using food we eat to make gasoline.
why not remove the $0.51 per gallon ethanol blenders tax credit for starters, and let market forces decide whether we should eat corn and soy, or burn it in our cars.
Washington Needs to Trim the Fat, Not Tax More [View article]
with inflation affecting the lower income groups disproportionately, it will be a hard sell to the people below obama's rich definition that they should vote for mccain. obama has even cleverly proposed to exempt from taxes the retired who earn less than $50K.
one final thought for those who like conspiracy theories. are the power brokers manipulating the market now to try to create a more rosy feeling for the election?
The Fat Lady's Not Singing Yet for the Economy [View article]
please tell me that is true because i am thinking the big money people are creating a mini-rally to pull the fools back in to financials so that they can get out.
Stock Markets Nearing Important Bottom [View article]
but if you examine the universe of data present today, it seems a lot different. we are running too close to our energy threshold to continue economic expansion, the dollar is no longer the currency of refuge. the center of economic power is shifting from west to east. these are not temporary issues the market can simply rebound from (such as credit crisis and a simple recession).
Oil Shocks, and What They Hold for the US Economy [View article]
however, i would not use an argument about how little benefit drilling for oil in alaska or offshore will bring because the same can be said of any of the alternate energy solutions proposed. we have to do everything possible (search for oil, nuclear, conservation, solar, wind, etc) to prevent an energy shortfall which will disproportionally effect the poor of the world.
i believe eventually an obvious energy pathway will emerge. greenhouse gas emitting solutions are doomed, but any fool can recognize that it will take more than your lifetime to discover, manufacture, and install whatever the final solution(s) entails.
Historic Financial Collapse Underway? [View article]
there are a lot more possible scenarios than Mr. Stansberry penned. there are many events which will effect how this crisis plays out which cannot be foreseen. and with the shift of global economic power from the west to the east, there are too many changed conditions to use historical data to project the future.
now that our elected officials have screwed up the war on terror, let us see how they will do on this new economic crisis. really, we should not re-elect anyone in currently in office. and for sure the same party cannot control the presidency and the congress.
preparing for a doomsday senario is a good exercise - and i would not discount its possiblility. however, it is not inevitable.
S&P 500 Dividend Yield Highest Since June 1995 [View article]