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Steven Hansen

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  • The Great Consumer Crash of 2009 [View article]
    The great thing about data is that you are left only with arguing what it means. For sure, we need to sit back for the next six months to see what the horizon looks like. There are many possible senarios even if the USA does not blockade iran - and if it does things will not look good.
    Aug 14 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Types of Speculation: One Harmful, One Not [View article]
    You are kidding me? there is good speculation and bad speculation. this is rubbish. everybody in the market is trading based on good speculation - to make money.

    if civil penalties and damages could be levied on people who originate or propagate information which is false or information clearly arranged to deceive or mislead - this would be good. but this will never happen, and i am not in favor this as the practical consequences could be enormous.

    i will just settle for keeping my tires inflated.
    Aug 5 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Strategies in These Times of Transition [View article]
    to me, both a democratic and republican congress focuses on demand side legislation in order to get re-elected. guess what? this is an election year. energy costs have pulled the foundation out from under the economy, and i believe the government should be spending big bucks in bringing energy self-sufficiency to usa.
    Aug 4 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • P/E Ratios and Inflation [View article]
    the analysis is not flawed. it is an extrapolation of historical tools. the question is whether this rule works today. my personal opinion is that while price to earnings ratios are somewhat effected by inflation and in the past have paralleled inflation, inflation is not the primary driver of price to earnings ratios, and this is the reason for the lack of precision when plotting price to earnings ratio versus inflation.
    Aug 3 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the U.S. Banking System Safe? [View article]
    actually, i think this article covered too much ground with too little analysis of the impacts of each issue relating to bank solvency. the use of data in this article was excellent, but some conclusions were drawn without adequate foundation. maybe the author of this article had his target audience as somebody smarter than me.

    and some recommendations at the end are disconnected from the analysis done in the article. particularly objectionable to me is advise number 4, to me there is little difference between somebody who knows what the truth is and lies, and somebody who speaks the 'truth' without gaining the knowledge to put the truth in perspective.


    Aug 3 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in Tankers: Ship, Ship, Hooray? [View article]
    why would i want to buy stock in a company where the liability loss caused by one collision will wipe the company off of the face of the world? when i was building nuke power plants in the early 70's, the industry kept saying that nukes were statistically safer than the odds of two 747's colliding on the runway. unfortunately, that very thing happened in Tenerife.

    A point to illustrate that my concerns are justified. for the last 13 years i have been navigating all the seven seas. you would sh*t your pants if you knew the percentage of the time that the watch on the bridge was not only not watching - but not there. even if a particular company has a very dedicated bridge crew, a tanker is very close to the least maneuverable ship on the seas (in other words it cannot maneuver its way out of trouble).

    good luck with your investments.

    Aug 3 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirements on Hold [View article]
    to summarize the situation for retirees:

    1) it is unlikely the dow can recover the lost anytime soon (see Planner's comment above). in fact, i believe the dow may be entering an even higher period of volatility. so a retiree is unlikely to recover lost capital anytime soon;

    2) inflation's engines is being ignited by energy increases and the previous declines of the dollar. so whatever the retiree has left will evaporate into an even smaller puddle;

    3) the retiree's house, which most were counting on for a significant contribution to the good life after retirement, has dropped in value. if the deflation of housing values stops today, i doubt it will rise again anytime soon; and

    4) not against owning gold (i do own some), but you can never count on when the price will increase. it is not a reliable investment vehicle to baseload a retirement plan.

    so what to do????

    Aug 3 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Miller on This Tough Market [View article]
    it does not matter what i think or you think. history is a guide but there are many issues today which the dynamic interplays have not been tested before. i try to make money in every situation - and limit losses to the extent possible. i would not bet the bank on a single investing strategy right now as there are many positive and negative potentials in the market which we have no control over.

    everyone here has vested interests. buffett would like us to be a value investor as it will help put a foundation under value stock especially what he owns. the gold boys continue to rain doomsday predictions to drive us towards buying gold. here is a news flash, you can always jump on these buses if they start moving. why invest in something not moving?


    Aug 2 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Credit Is Too Much? Where AmEx Went Wrong [View article]
    hey, i have lived outside of the usa for the last 25 years, and amex's acceptance has been rising. they have lots of deals now with the local banks,
    Aug 1 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can Go Right for the Financials? Quite a Bit, Actually [View article]
    tom, thanks for the detail this time. you have fleshed out your reasons for declaring 15 JULY the bottom. the problem all along has been the uncertainty. the financials which have come clean about what is going on appear to be rewarded even if the news is bad. although you may be correct about 15 July, there is still too much uncertainty, and uncontrollable and unforeseeable events will really be the umpire who calls the bottom.
    Jul 30 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has the Dollar Bottomed? [View article]
    although i agree with this article, we should remember that it is an opinion as little proof was offered of things to come.

    it with the fragile state of the world economy, it will not take much of an unexpected event to have the markets spiral out of control.

    another point to remember is that we have been shown little data on the state of us banks or i-banks. only rumors and speculation and opinion. again, any event or leak of raw data which contradicts what we think is true will send the markets into a death spiral.

    Jul 28 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Structural Bear Market Nearing Its End? [View article]
    do we really have enough data on the depth of the credit crisis to make any predictions?
    Jul 27 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stagflation and Peak Oil: How Related Are They? (Part I) [View article]
    as the price of oil raises:

    - so does the viability of alternate sources of energy;

    - so does the r & d investment in energy;

    - and so does opposition to drilling in sensitive environmental areas, open pit coal sands mines and nuclear power.

    the trick is to slow the change in pricing so that the market has time to adapt.

    the method we currently use worldwide to price oil needs to be studied and an alternative implemented. the oil producers are telling you that this process is exaggerating the prices - are we smart enough to get it?

    having worked for the oil minister of a gulf country, i can tell you that one of the primary assumptions in this article is not correct.

    Jul 27 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is China's Olympics Vacation Affecting Commodities Markets? [View article]
    the commodity pipeline is not something that is turned on and off with a switch - it has a very long lead time. you don't deliver iron ore or other commodities in a 474 but in a bulk carrier type ship which takes weeks to load, weeks to transport, and weeks to unload. this leaves out the lead times to source, negotiate, buy, and pay as these items may have been formalized months or years in advance.

    it is romantic to think that the olympics could have this much impact on the worlds commodity prices, but i have yet to see any evidence this is true.
    Jul 27 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impact of Candidates' Tax Plans on Deficit Worsens [View article]
    i have never seen a president's spending plan implemented. will it be different this time?

    Jul 26 05:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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