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Steven Hansen  

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  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    import trends generally coincide with strengthening main street economy - all I am saying is that there is correlation. the problem is that imports are a negative to GDP, and exports are positive - so this current trend is negative IF one believes you measure an economy using GDP. as a person who exists in the USA - i do not see my position stronger after several years of positive GDP growth. GDP does not measure the world i exist in.
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    i can only answer for myself - a minimum of three data points, and the more data points after that would strengthen your confidence that the trend was in play.
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    and likely they will be saying it for seven more :)
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Credit Is Bouncing Around [View instapost]
    fully agree. but i would go further - it is in the interests of any country to educate its citizens. fees should be more nominal. how this can be done is the question - but it needs to be done.
    Oct 12, 2014. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Seems To Be Trending Moderately Upward - But I Still Worry [View instapost]
    rail is posted now http://bit.ly/1pGpqNm
    Oct 6, 2014. 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 5.9% Unemployment Rate Real Progress? [View article]
    there is no argument that we have a "bad, though real, recovery". my general argument throughout years of posts is that headline unemployment rate is NOT a good gauge of labor metrics, the employment-population ratio also shows a "bad, though real, recovery" in labor - and this is the core of the discussion in this post. the headline unemployment rate has fallen from 9.9% to 5.9%, whilst the employment-population ratio has risen from a low of 58.2 to 59.0. both show recovery - but at extremely different rates. this is my beef. please note that with this "good" bls report last friday - the employment-population ratio was unchanged.
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Seems To Be Trending Moderately Upward - But I Still Worry [View instapost]
    ouch :)

    i was traveling this past week and did not post rail or fed balance sheet. thanks for noticing.
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    you would be correct if the fed was simply swapping a banks asset for money. but over half of qe is against us treasuries DIRECTLY. qe is not a single process. if the us government spends money it does not have, and the fed buys this debt (with money it does not have) - in essence the governments spending is new money (expanding the money supply). if the private sector bought the government debt with its money - no new money was created. over one half of the fed balance sheet was new money.

    i would not argue that there are many reasons the velocity is falling. it seems the disagreement is that i see new money in over half of qe.
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity. Note the key word "money supply". if the money just sits, it has zero velocity. http://bit.ly/1qUSEre
    Oct 1, 2014. 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    i do not like monetary measures as a forecasting tool - especially with the extraordinary monetary policy. i personally see little forecasting ability of the inverted yield curve - maybe you do: http://bit.ly/1lqX0nt
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    i think quantitative easing pretty much destroyed the correlation between velocity of money and the economy.
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    you bring up a good point. to keep this real, note that ecri or the philly fed leading index has not whitewashed. the conference boards lei threw away their old index and what you see above is new. the chemical activity barometer is new and has not stood the test of accuracy in real time.
    Sep 28, 2014. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable Goods Says The Economy Is Doing Quite Well [View instapost]
    1) i do not think any indicator is fail proof.
    2) each one uses a different grouping of data points.
    3) ecri historically has tracked quite well against the chicago fed national activity index- the super coincident index - when offsetting six months.
    4) currently it is the most pessimistic.

    i look and monitor this index weekly. this index uses monetary indicators, and i suspect the feds zirp and qe are distorting this index to the pessimistic side.
    Sep 28, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Is Misleading Us To Believe The Economy Is Improving [View article]
    the methodology has not changed

    some countries do year-over-year, others quarter over quarter

    i cannot answer your third question
    Sep 9, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Says The Economy Will Not Pick Up This Year [View instapost]
    the census seasonal adjusting methodology sucks :) i have written posts in the past showing how if you add up their monthly gains it ends up being two to three times the real growth.
    Aug 24, 2014. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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