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Steven Hansen  

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  • Rethinking Investing In India [View article]
    all banks are majority owned by the government - the two largest are 100%
    http://bit.ly/1BYGLIa
    Jan 12, 2015. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Forces May Act On The Markets In 2015? [View article]
    it is fast change which creates the dynamics with unpredictable consequences. it is not high or low prices, but the speed they change.
    Jan 5, 2015. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasty Storm Brewing In Trade [View instapost]
    i just ran across this post: http://bit.ly/13oTV5z
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasty Storm Brewing In Trade [View instapost]
    fincyn - yes the work slowdowns, fire, and backlog all had effects. but we are talking trends here - not one month out of alignment. there could also be a change in seasonal shipping which also could account for some of this.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forward Looking Indicators Disagree - One Is Wrong [View instapost]
    what you are looking at is the new LEI. they missed the 2008 recession - and ecri did not. since that time, ecri has called one recession which did not occur. at this point - their both have a one win / one loss track record.

    i am not negative on ecri - i know the financial community does not like them because they only like indices which show the future is bright. according to economists and market pumpers - the economy never will contract :)
    Nov 22, 2014. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lack Of Rental Units Can Trigger Inflation [View article]
    40 percent of the consumer price index is costs for rental housing. so YES - rental housing prices significantly influence the way inflation is calculated.
    Nov 22, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Consumer Income Improving Or Declining? [View article]
    we publish on the day of the press release Sentier Research median income data. the next release should be early next week: http://bit.ly/1w51CFt:
    Nov 9, 2014. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    import trends generally coincide with strengthening main street economy - all I am saying is that there is correlation. the problem is that imports are a negative to GDP, and exports are positive - so this current trend is negative IF one believes you measure an economy using GDP. as a person who exists in the USA - i do not see my position stronger after several years of positive GDP growth. GDP does not measure the world i exist in.
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    i can only answer for myself - a minimum of three data points, and the more data points after that would strengthen your confidence that the trend was in play.
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    and likely they will be saying it for seven more :)
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Credit Is Bouncing Around [View instapost]
    fully agree. but i would go further - it is in the interests of any country to educate its citizens. fees should be more nominal. how this can be done is the question - but it needs to be done.
    Oct 12, 2014. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Seems To Be Trending Moderately Upward - But I Still Worry [View instapost]
    rail is posted now http://bit.ly/1pGpqNm
    Oct 6, 2014. 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 5.9% Unemployment Rate Real Progress? [View article]
    there is no argument that we have a "bad, though real, recovery". my general argument throughout years of posts is that headline unemployment rate is NOT a good gauge of labor metrics, the employment-population ratio also shows a "bad, though real, recovery" in labor - and this is the core of the discussion in this post. the headline unemployment rate has fallen from 9.9% to 5.9%, whilst the employment-population ratio has risen from a low of 58.2 to 59.0. both show recovery - but at extremely different rates. this is my beef. please note that with this "good" bls report last friday - the employment-population ratio was unchanged.
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Seems To Be Trending Moderately Upward - But I Still Worry [View instapost]
    ouch :)

    i was traveling this past week and did not post rail or fed balance sheet. thanks for noticing.
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    you would be correct if the fed was simply swapping a banks asset for money. but over half of qe is against us treasuries DIRECTLY. qe is not a single process. if the us government spends money it does not have, and the fed buys this debt (with money it does not have) - in essence the governments spending is new money (expanding the money supply). if the private sector bought the government debt with its money - no new money was created. over one half of the fed balance sheet was new money.

    i would not argue that there are many reasons the velocity is falling. it seems the disagreement is that i see new money in over half of qe.
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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