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Steven Hansen  

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  • What Forces May Act On The Markets In 2015? [View article]
    it is fast change which creates the dynamics with unpredictable consequences. it is not high or low prices, but the speed they change.
    Jan 5, 2015. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasty Storm Brewing In Trade [View instapost]
    i just ran across this post: http://bit.ly/13oTV5z
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasty Storm Brewing In Trade [View instapost]
    fincyn - yes the work slowdowns, fire, and backlog all had effects. but we are talking trends here - not one month out of alignment. there could also be a change in seasonal shipping which also could account for some of this.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forward Looking Indicators Disagree - One Is Wrong [View instapost]
    what you are looking at is the new LEI. they missed the 2008 recession - and ecri did not. since that time, ecri has called one recession which did not occur. at this point - their both have a one win / one loss track record.

    i am not negative on ecri - i know the financial community does not like them because they only like indices which show the future is bright. according to economists and market pumpers - the economy never will contract :)
    Nov 22, 2014. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lack Of Rental Units Can Trigger Inflation [View article]
    40 percent of the consumer price index is costs for rental housing. so YES - rental housing prices significantly influence the way inflation is calculated.
    Nov 22, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Consumer Income Improving Or Declining? [View article]
    we publish on the day of the press release Sentier Research median income data. the next release should be early next week: http://bit.ly/1w51CFt:
    Nov 9, 2014. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    import trends generally coincide with strengthening main street economy - all I am saying is that there is correlation. the problem is that imports are a negative to GDP, and exports are positive - so this current trend is negative IF one believes you measure an economy using GDP. as a person who exists in the USA - i do not see my position stronger after several years of positive GDP growth. GDP does not measure the world i exist in.
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    i can only answer for myself - a minimum of three data points, and the more data points after that would strengthen your confidence that the trend was in play.
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Data Is Saying The U.S. Economy Is Returning To Normal [View article]
    and likely they will be saying it for seven more :)
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Credit Is Bouncing Around [View instapost]
    fully agree. but i would go further - it is in the interests of any country to educate its citizens. fees should be more nominal. how this can be done is the question - but it needs to be done.
    Oct 12, 2014. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Seems To Be Trending Moderately Upward - But I Still Worry [View instapost]
    rail is posted now http://bit.ly/1pGpqNm
    Oct 6, 2014. 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 5.9% Unemployment Rate Real Progress? [View article]
    there is no argument that we have a "bad, though real, recovery". my general argument throughout years of posts is that headline unemployment rate is NOT a good gauge of labor metrics, the employment-population ratio also shows a "bad, though real, recovery" in labor - and this is the core of the discussion in this post. the headline unemployment rate has fallen from 9.9% to 5.9%, whilst the employment-population ratio has risen from a low of 58.2 to 59.0. both show recovery - but at extremely different rates. this is my beef. please note that with this "good" bls report last friday - the employment-population ratio was unchanged.
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Seems To Be Trending Moderately Upward - But I Still Worry [View instapost]
    ouch :)

    i was traveling this past week and did not post rail or fed balance sheet. thanks for noticing.
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    you would be correct if the fed was simply swapping a banks asset for money. but over half of qe is against us treasuries DIRECTLY. qe is not a single process. if the us government spends money it does not have, and the fed buys this debt (with money it does not have) - in essence the governments spending is new money (expanding the money supply). if the private sector bought the government debt with its money - no new money was created. over one half of the fed balance sheet was new money.

    i would not argue that there are many reasons the velocity is falling. it seems the disagreement is that i see new money in over half of qe.
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity. Note the key word "money supply". if the money just sits, it has zero velocity. http://bit.ly/1qUSEre
    Oct 1, 2014. 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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