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Steven Hansen  

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  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    i do not like monetary measures as a forecasting tool - especially with the extraordinary monetary policy. i personally see little forecasting ability of the inverted yield curve - maybe you do:
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    i think quantitative easing pretty much destroyed the correlation between velocity of money and the economy.
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    you bring up a good point. to keep this real, note that ecri or the philly fed leading index has not whitewashed. the conference boards lei threw away their old index and what you see above is new. the chemical activity barometer is new and has not stood the test of accuracy in real time.
    Sep 28, 2014. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable Goods Says The Economy Is Doing Quite Well [View instapost]
    1) i do not think any indicator is fail proof.
    2) each one uses a different grouping of data points.
    3) ecri historically has tracked quite well against the chicago fed national activity index- the super coincident index - when offsetting six months.
    4) currently it is the most pessimistic.

    i look and monitor this index weekly. this index uses monetary indicators, and i suspect the feds zirp and qe are distorting this index to the pessimistic side.
    Sep 28, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Is Misleading Us To Believe The Economy Is Improving [View article]
    the methodology has not changed

    some countries do year-over-year, others quarter over quarter

    i cannot answer your third question
    Sep 9, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Residential Construction Says The Economy Will Not Pick Up This Year [View instapost]
    the census seasonal adjusting methodology sucks :) i have written posts in the past showing how if you add up their monthly gains it ends up being two to three times the real growth.
    Aug 24, 2014. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare And Part Time Jobs Growth [View article]
    you can always blame demographics - but consider the biggest decline in employment levels has been with white males under 44 years old (and it gets worse for those who only have a high school diploma or did not graduate high school).
    Jul 15, 2014. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare And Part Time Jobs Growth [View article]
    Yes. one month of data is not a trend. I want to point this out because the household survey is noisy because it is a survey (and not hard data) - and the data needs to be trended. I am not arguing that your data you pointed out was wrong - just an event that happens many times every year.

    I also want to point out that the household survey includes farm workers while the establishment survey does not.

    I wrote this post because ones hatred of Obamacare (i for one wish Obamacare never happened because i believe it is a tax and not a step towards universal health care) should not allow cherry picking of data to show only negative aspects. i can find no data (other than anecdotal) that Obamacare has skewed the relationship between part time and full time jobs.
    Jul 14, 2014. 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare And Part Time Jobs Growth [View article]
    The Labor force participation rate is the labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population. This "proves" that a smaller percent of the population wants to work. One would be hard pressed to show any effect of Obamacare in this statistic.

    The USA employment stats generally have been in a decline since 2000 - and I believe his was caused by a variety of issues including global trade (USA government allowing a taxed USA product being sold against an imported item which was never taxed).
    Jul 13, 2014. 06:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ending The USA Export Import Bank Is Bad For The Economy [View article]
    i guess job creation is not important. i sense you do not believe that certain countries are not better at doing things than others. this is what trade is all about. why limit your ability to trade?
    Jun 30, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bad Start To 2Q2014 GDP [View instapost]
    on the other hand, there are several papers on economic stall speed which conclude gdp under 2% for any length of time is a recession trigger.

    bbro - i am not a pumper - trying to show only good. i am on record saying a recession is not eminent - but this does not preclude me from looking at data to the contrary. trends are good until they are no longer good. i always have in the back of my mind that "this time is different" as the economy moves with a morphing group of dynamics. it is obvious we do not understand interaction or most recessions could be avoided.
    Jun 1, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robotics May Be Good For U.S. Employment [View article]
    ever watch "Blade Runner"?

    May 25, 2014. 08:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Further Evidence Economic Rate Of Growth Is Slowing [View instapost]
    no alarm being sounded. the usa economy had a terrible start last year also - and the cfnai is below last year. the purpose of these posts is to refute the growing chorus of people saying that the economy is improving (must be in their dreams).
    Mar 30, 2014. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should There Be Optimism On U.S. Export Growth? [View article]
    oil imports do not effect trends whether you include it or not. my last analysis which much of it is based on removing crude imports:
    Mar 24, 2014. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Is Income Constrained [View article]
    i just published January 2014 consumer credit.
    Mar 9, 2014. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment