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Steven Hansen

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  • Should We Take ECRI's Recession Call Seriously? [View instapost]
    the bls data is the worst for getting it right in real time. they need at least 6 months, or a year and six months :) of course looking back at employment in the past recessions using historical data - what you are saying fits.

    a forecasting tool we use for forecasting employment is at the same levels (and downtrending) when the USA entered the great recession.
    Dec 1 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should We Take ECRI's Recession Call Seriously? [View instapost]
    it will not be a credit driven crisis like 2007 / 8, but it will be a lower consumption event - driven in part because the great recessions debt imbalance has not cleared yet. at main street level (which is how our index is geared), it may not even be noticeable.

    in 4Q2012, there will be a significant headwind from inventory depletion - and my bet is there will be a slight reduction in consumption based on trend lines. this would be more than enough to put the USA in a technical recession.
    Dec 1 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twinkies And Employment [View article]
    i am a supporter of things that work - the situation in the Reuters article is a disgrace. the problem with public sector unionization is that they can politically fund the elected officials who are representing the "management" side - a clear conflict of interest.

    the concept of collective bargaining is based on two opposing sides - where is the opposing side if both parties are sitting on the same side of the table? it was Kennedy signed Executive Order 10988 which started this ball rolling. It is clear that this process has now created several monsters - and that the system itself needs adjustment.

    At this moment, it likely is the government itself who is the villain. the political system created a law, and left it on the books even when there is evidence it is not working correctly. The process throughout the federal, state and local governments needs sunset provisions on all laws and regulations.
    Nov 24 10:54 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can They Spare A Penny A Click For International Coverage? [View instapost]
    Jon - as a publisher of another blog, i can say that SA knows what sells and does not - and likely they have an optimum number (not unlimited) of slots daily (likely arranged by subject matter).

    their mailing lists are predicated on subject matter - and doubt they have a mailing list for "sri lanka". so they are trying to get you to conform to their system by getting you to match your posts investment touts to their system.

    all of the authors on SA have had your problem in the past - and yes, it upsets me when it happens - so i can totally sympathize. but SA offers great exposure, and the good more than makes up for this kind of frustration.

    good luck.
    Nov 14 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Effects Of Obamacare On Employment [View article]
    i too would conclude it is time to buy stock in temp staffing companies,
    Nov 12 12:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Effects Of Obamacare On Employment [View article]
    every one is entitled to their opinions - but facts are facts.

    trade unions, companies - all got waivers of various types for Obamacare. i have not read each one, but the waivers expire differently, and all expire by 2014.

    the Nebraska waiver was given to all states in the final reconciliation of the bill before it became law.
    Nov 11 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Effects Of Obamacare On Employment [View article]
    Under the law, companies will be responsible for providing coverage for workers or they will face government penalties -- but not for employees who log fewer than 30 hours per week on average.

    it is important that disinformation be refuted. please refer to the USA governments own website : http://1.usa.gov/TTxy0o which states the following:

    "Employers may refuse or restrict [Obamacare] coverage for other reasons (such as part-time employment), as long as these are unrelated to your health status and are applied consistently."

    so no - 100 part time employees are not equal to 96 full time. the law specifically exempts employers from Obamacare for part-time employees.
    Nov 11 06:45 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Goods Import Problem? [View article]
    untrusting,
    i have read both yours and PM's comments and both are correct. what PM is saying that the USA system taxes domestic production - and does not tax foreign production. most countries refund all taxes paid for exports (the USA does not do this either).

    so the USA starts from an inferior position - and this is the problem. VAT is the only way around this that i am aware (duties are not possible under current agreements).

    However, your points on the income tax system are equally as valid. I don't see why a VAT system cannot coexist with the existing system for goods. many countries allow credit by individuals and companies against income taxes for VAT paid.
    Nov 5 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Goods Import Problem? [View article]
    yes - you are correct. the issue is not to whether to import or not import - but to avoid creating a wild west where manufacturing dynamics are harmed. i am not talking about protectionism - but order.
    Nov 4 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Goods Import Problem? [View article]
    maybe the statement should have been in quotes because this is what i hear everyday - not what i believe. the entire post disputed this lead statement.
    Nov 4 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Goods Import Problem? [View article]
    nicely said Derryl. trade is a much more complex issue than data and charts. until we have a perfect world, the economic theories of free trade being beneficial to the common man should be taken with a grain of salt.
    Nov 4 09:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade Data Is Showing Nasty Economic Trends [View article]
    logical - yes, more and more use of containers in lieu of bulk shipping on rail cars via containers, or simply longer movements of trailers on rail. HOWEVER, i am not claiming that even without these effects that intermodal is not growing. my belief is that you need to discount some portion of that growth.

    every week i review the rail situation overall by backing out coal and grain http://bit.ly/RoHHOo. note that the last two or three weeks have started showing improvement in the intuitive portions. however, for economic trends, i have been using a four week rolling average which is just beginning to show a POSSIBLE trend change.
    Oct 14 09:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8% Of The Pre-Great Recession Workforce Still MIA [View article]
    Freddie, the Econintersect index is not forecasting GDP - but the parallel universe of the consumer. this universe is not necessarily in phase with gdp.
    Oct 7 08:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Purchases Plummeting: Another Recession Indicator? [View article]
    food for thought - the percentage of the population working is basically unchanged for the last 3 years. intuitively, this makes metrics like miles driven good economic indicators.
    Sep 24 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Purchases Plummeting: Another Recession Indicator? [View article]
    Just to be clear - this post tried to show that miles driven was not correlating to fuel consumed. Miles driven is not a real time stat and lags by 3 months (so it is unusable as an economic forecasting tool). Fuel consumed is almost real time so it would be a good tool IF IT CORRELATED TO MILES DRIVEN.
    Sep 24 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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