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Steven Hansen

 
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  • The Growing Goods Import Problem? [View article]
    yes - you are correct. the issue is not to whether to import or not import - but to avoid creating a wild west where manufacturing dynamics are harmed. i am not talking about protectionism - but order.
    Nov 4 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Goods Import Problem? [View article]
    maybe the statement should have been in quotes because this is what i hear everyday - not what i believe. the entire post disputed this lead statement.
    Nov 4 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Goods Import Problem? [View article]
    nicely said Derryl. trade is a much more complex issue than data and charts. until we have a perfect world, the economic theories of free trade being beneficial to the common man should be taken with a grain of salt.
    Nov 4 09:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade Data Is Showing Nasty Economic Trends [View article]
    logical - yes, more and more use of containers in lieu of bulk shipping on rail cars via containers, or simply longer movements of trailers on rail. HOWEVER, i am not claiming that even without these effects that intermodal is not growing. my belief is that you need to discount some portion of that growth.

    every week i review the rail situation overall by backing out coal and grain http://bit.ly/RoHHOo. note that the last two or three weeks have started showing improvement in the intuitive portions. however, for economic trends, i have been using a four week rolling average which is just beginning to show a POSSIBLE trend change.
    Oct 14 09:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8% Of The Pre-Great Recession Workforce Still MIA [View article]
    Freddie, the Econintersect index is not forecasting GDP - but the parallel universe of the consumer. this universe is not necessarily in phase with gdp.
    Oct 7 08:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Purchases Plummeting: Another Recession Indicator? [View article]
    food for thought - the percentage of the population working is basically unchanged for the last 3 years. intuitively, this makes metrics like miles driven good economic indicators.
    Sep 24 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Purchases Plummeting: Another Recession Indicator? [View article]
    Just to be clear - this post tried to show that miles driven was not correlating to fuel consumed. Miles driven is not a real time stat and lags by 3 months (so it is unusable as an economic forecasting tool). Fuel consumed is almost real time so it would be a good tool IF IT CORRELATED TO MILES DRIVEN.
    Sep 24 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Purchases Plummeting: Another Recession Indicator? [View article]
    1) Lakshman is not a fringe voice - unless one considers a fringe being somebody that does not share your view.
    2) since my post disputed views that gasoline usage is a "good" economic indicator, i did not list the pundits. this is not a personal thing to me, and a roll-call just makes this personal.
    Sep 24 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Purchases Plummeting: Another Recession Indicator? [View article]
    it failed because
    - Ceridan's market share must have changed (it was inconsistent with total diesel usage variations) - and one cannot use the government data because it lags real time too much,
    - i suspect the mix between rail and road changed.
    - fuel consumption improved significantly with no analytical methodology available to adjust.

    i think UCLA was embarrassed by the economy not following its predictions.
    Sep 24 09:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment In A World Without Jobs [View article]
    just so i go on record - i had no agenda or direction for this article. my weekend articles are meant as think pieces. no issue is black or white . in general, i am a robot lover and a lover of water. that does not mean i want the world covered only with water.

    humans need to manage (or not manage) their environment. they make the choice. based on the current structure, people need to work to make money. man develops a machine, in this case its sole purpose is to replace man's labor period - whether it is a health care worker or walmart employee. image a retail store with no employees - even the stores manager (overseer) is a robot.

    this time is different. in the past, technology advances have opened more jobs than destroyed. but when the advancement is to replace literally all jobs, technology will no longer create jobs.

    the genie is out of the box - and the destruction of jobs will only increase. humans need to rethink their structure.
    Aug 26 10:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Review: Economy Still Not Operating On All Cylinders [View instapost]
    Cautious - at 1.5% economic growth, i see little difference between your view and mine :)
    Aug 19 07:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Economic Summary: Good Data Except One Datapoint [View instapost]
    yes, my take is the same as yours - we will muddle until a dynamic occurs which alters the equation ...
    Aug 13 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Economic Summary: Good Data Except One Datapoint [View instapost]
    it is becoming more and more likely that insiders are paid a very high percentage of income with stock (this was less likely 50 years ago). most investment advisers say not to hold much investment in the company which pays your salary.

    i look at trend lines in this series - and my read is that trends are flat.
    Aug 12 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Rollercoaster Gaining Downward Momentum [View article]
    very good comment. did you read all the cbo's qualifications on obamacare?

    http://bit.ly/MPPA2C
    Jul 31 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Rollercoaster Gaining Downward Momentum [View article]
    Tom, agree that a roller coaster is not a good simile for GDP - the roller coaster analogy was meant for economic news in general (which does include the markets).
    Jul 29 11:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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