Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
shevle - the data in this post include the revision you mention. i could build a negative outlook article, but i cannot use current trend lines to do it. the markets always turn while consensus opinion is negative. i personally believe home prices are still to high based on income IF home prices do not appreciate. but i cannot quantitatively support this opinion.
Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
Ten, i do inventory correlation also - and the inventory to sales ratios are in the historical normal range (on the low side). this would insinuate that there is no unusual stocking event occurring - and that transport data can be correlated using the non recession years. http://bit.ly/AkW81p
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
Ross, you are using an industrial engineers view of productivity - not an economic one. here is a standard caveat i place in articles where i review productivity http://bit.ly/zrh3Jv
"Productivity is determined using monetary criteria, and does not recognize outsourced man hours – in other words, if a business cuts half of its workforce by outsourcing a sub-component or sub-service, this would be a 50% productivity improvement."
in other words, we have no way to know if real productivity is increasing or not. <steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
Logical, i never rely on one data point - for a variety of reasons (including the one you mention). rail has competition, and you must look at all modes of transportation. consider that rail LEADS all other transport data points (release dates) - and weak rail data puts me on a higher level of alert when reviewing the others. <steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
dancing, absolutely warmer winter is in play, and is one of the factors. the problem in analysis is that it is hard to weight these factors into the overall equation. if i had to isolate major reasons: - average usa car fuel consumption per mile falling - natural gas prices <steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
Logical, au contraire, i think my analysis is deeper than anyone else's on the internet. my two latest posts on rail which are only days old: http://bit.ly/zUXHMP http://bit.ly/yI7Lje
analysis requires looking deeper than carloads, and my concern is intermodal which moves finished goods. <steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
Rich, - not claiming the economy is going into a recession (in fact saying the opposite), trying to show that the weakness some are seeing are being caused by an unusual wobble in the energy portion of the data. - pce is the major input into gdp, and the data used includes january (the current gdp issue is for 4q2011). - I am an admirer of Jeff Miller's views, we publish Jeff on Econintersect, and Jeff frequently links to my data analysis in his weekly articles. <steven>
ECRI Says Recession Is Still Coming - Evidence Is In Coincident Data [View article]
Steve - i completely ignore the whole U (unemployment) series. my analysis highlights employment to population ratios. I reject that any survey can determine the size of the workforce, then determine who meets a definition of unemployed - and repeat the process monthly.
employment population ratios use the best guess of size of workforce using hard data, and then use the census best estimate of population. this ratio is not noisy. please look at how this plots out, using a graph from my last BLS jobs report analysis. http://bit.ly/x4IgP4
ECRI Says Recession Is Still Coming - Evidence Is In Coincident Data [View article]
Cautious, the data currently is not strong. what keeps rumbling around in my mind is the different economic dynamics today. part of the "weakness" is the weaning from the stimulus. another part when looking at YoY is that the same cycle occurred last year, but the "recovery" was a few months out of phase with this year. this causes a drop in YoY improvements (and a sharper rate-of-growth decline).
Just a note, that overall the decline in rail is due to coal - which has nothing to do with the economy (as utilities have options for fuel sources. however, intermodal declined also, and it is hard to know why.
and my analysis is the important economic tracking elements of Industrial production likely have a slightly positive rate-of-change trend line. http://bit.ly/z8Em0n
summary? the USA has a weak economy which is vulnerable to shocks; it is now seeing oil price shock, likely a small Greek shock stands in the wings. On the other hand, it never really expanded from the 2007 recession which limits contraction.
Is Sea Cargo Baltic Dry Index Decline Recessionary? [View article]
i am reluctant to comment on areas i have only marginal knowledge. yes, gas carriers are LNG and CNG. i admit to not understanding the dynamics of gas demand & its associated distribution. you must understand the players and the contracts to properly understand movements.
Recessionary Forecast: Prisoners Of Housing [View article]
I use elements (not the total) of coincident indicators which historically have been indicative of future economic movement. the strong elements this past week include components of rail, truck, durable goods and the cfnai.
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
like your graph - and as the wli is a business cycle forecast tool - there should be a high correlation between stocks and the wli.
Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
http://bit.ly/AkW81p
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
you are using an industrial engineers view of productivity - not an economic one. here is a standard caveat i place in articles where i review productivity http://bit.ly/zrh3Jv
"Productivity is determined using monetary criteria, and does not recognize outsourced man hours – in other words, if a business cuts half of its workforce by outsourcing a sub-component or sub-service, this would be a 50% productivity improvement."
in other words, we have no way to know if real productivity is increasing or not.
<steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
i never rely on one data point - for a variety of reasons (including the one you mention). rail has competition, and you must look at all modes of transportation. consider that rail LEADS all other transport data points (release dates) - and weak rail data puts me on a higher level of alert when reviewing the others.
<steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
absolutely warmer winter is in play, and is one of the factors. the problem in analysis is that it is hard to weight these factors into the overall equation. if i had to isolate major reasons:
- average usa car fuel consumption per mile falling
- natural gas prices
<steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
au contraire, i think my analysis is deeper than anyone else's on the internet. my two latest posts on rail which are only days old:
http://bit.ly/zUXHMP
http://bit.ly/yI7Lje
analysis requires looking deeper than carloads, and my concern is intermodal which moves finished goods.
<steven>
Oil Prices Already Causing Recession In Energy Portions Of The Economy [View article]
- not claiming the economy is going into a recession (in fact saying the opposite), trying to show that the weakness some are seeing are being caused by an unusual wobble in the energy portion of the data.
- pce is the major input into gdp, and the data used includes january (the current gdp issue is for 4q2011).
- I am an admirer of Jeff Miller's views, we publish Jeff on Econintersect, and Jeff frequently links to my data analysis in his weekly articles.
<steven>
Gasoline Price Increases: Prelude To The Next Recession? [View article]
ECRI Says Recession Is Still Coming - Evidence Is In Coincident Data [View article]
employment population ratios use the best guess of size of workforce using hard data, and then use the census best estimate of population. this ratio is not noisy. please look at how this plots out, using a graph from my last BLS jobs report analysis.
http://bit.ly/x4IgP4
ECRI Says Recession Is Still Coming - Evidence Is In Coincident Data [View article]
ECRI Says Recession Is Still Coming - Evidence Is In Coincident Data [View article]
the data currently is not strong. what keeps rumbling around in my mind is the different economic dynamics today. part of the "weakness" is the weaning from the stimulus. another part when looking at YoY is that the same cycle occurred last year, but the "recovery" was a few months out of phase with this year. this causes a drop in YoY improvements (and a sharper rate-of-growth decline).
Just a note, that overall the decline in rail is due to coal - which has nothing to do with the economy (as utilities have options for fuel sources. however, intermodal declined also, and it is hard to know why.
and my analysis is the important economic tracking elements of Industrial production likely have a slightly positive rate-of-change trend line. http://bit.ly/z8Em0n
summary? the USA has a weak economy which is vulnerable to shocks; it is now seeing oil price shock, likely a small Greek shock stands in the wings. On the other hand, it never really expanded from the 2007 recession which limits contraction.
Is Sea Cargo Baltic Dry Index Decline Recessionary? [View article]
Recessionary Forecast: Prisoners Of Housing [View article]