Recessionary Forecast: Prisoners Of Housing [View article]
i would complain but the link works for me on three different computers (only one is signed in to SA and Econintersect) - and two different browsers. articles on SA are limited in the number of active hyperlinks. in any event, here are two different webpages which have active hyperlinks: http://bit.ly/x9OSHJ http://bit.ly/zCtEAe
China, India: A Hard Landing Is Very Unlikely [View article]
you are right too - a top down economy must have a leadership making the correct decisions. my point here is that you have a better chance of success if all rowers are paddling in the same direction.
and adding to your point, economies do not turn on a dime. the results of good and bad policies sometime take many years to manifest.
China, India: A Hard Landing Is Very Unlikely [View article]
Oz has its own dynamics - and has a very young relative population to boot. the exposure in Oz seems to be the European banks, not the European recession.
i do not see any pundit have enough insight to quantify the contagion a banking crisis.
No not wishful thinking - and i expect half of your comments to come to pass. 2012 is the year of uncertainty - and hopefully when we look back, will not be that bad of a year after all.
unless there is a major event, economic reaction is normally quite slow to political policies - so i doubt that an election year will have much impact. but as you point out, business uncertainty tends to pull down gdp - as investment is a gdp element. HOWEVER, the investment numbers are not good as they never recovered from the 2007 recession.
the question on the table is how much can they contract at this point?
Freddie, We are also seeing the beginning of a 1Q2012 economic slowdown - not indicating a recession at this point. Our forward looking indicators become less precise the further we move them out - and therefore we do not release these "guesses". At this point, we too see a 2Q strengthening, but i would not take this to the bank.
Unfortunately, neither of our forecasts are worth much as it will be events in Europe which will determine the USA economy. I am not worried that a simple gdp contraction in Europe will weaken the USA economy into a recession. My worry is a banking contagion.
However, at this point I am optimistic that the Eurozone will react enough to prevent a banking meltdown - even though at this point the mechanisms are inadequate.
This is what happens when governments (all advance economies) continue to paper over severe issues believing they will go away.
the difference is that in 2007 i too called a recession, and left the market in december. this time, the indicators are exhibiting some traits they did last year without a recession coming. i am not a market pumper, but a pragmatist open to looking for evidence. i remain on high alert.
Fixing The Eurozone - Old Fashioned Inflation And Deflation [View article]
SteveK - i can see to the end of the year, and the forward looking data i use has strengthened (i do not use jobs, but admit to using a portion of production which i believe is forward looking).
What Lakshman (ECRI) is pointing out is that most of the data used by the NBER to date recessions is in series that are revised for many months after being first released, and are notorious at being completely wrong at economic turning points. however, you can pick forward looking data which is not revised (so you do not have to wait a year to see if you are in a recession). Econintersect uses mostly non-monetary data points which are not subject to revision.
i have limited vision yet into the first quarter of 2012 - the first piece of data is positive (but the rest could be negative). personally, i think that Europe will determine if the USA recesses - if they are able to keep financial contagion under control, the USA has a better than even chance of avoiding a downturn.
danS - no question houses today are much more bang-for-the-buck (thinking of size and amenities), add historically low mortgage rates - and all things being equal, the current housing prices are a good deal.
but alas, all things are not equal. the money a buyer must bring to the table is back to 1970 levels for repeat buyers - and first time buyers also must pony up a big down. my first home in the early 70's was 1% down and $99 closing costs.
the demographic shift has big houses in the suburbs, when the next wave of buyers wants something smaller in near where they work. they do not want the to mow the lawn on saturdays - and room to park the rv (which they can no longer afford). when you can rent want you want significantly cheaper than you can buy it, it slows home ownership down when every penny counts.
the 600# gorilla here is disposable income and home prices continuing to fall. buyers are in placed in a position where they could lose their capital. it is impossible to say homes are affordable or a good deal when the costs of ownership is above people's means. :(
Even Prof Krugman believes university education is a waste of money in 2011. my grandson is being told to learn a trade - i graduated university but i was also a licensed plumber (a trade learned from my father). at one point i was a certified welder. the world is automating - and on the brink of an artificial intelligence revolution that will do away with bank tellers, cashiers, and even engineers and investment analysts.
maybe in a lifetime in the future, you will have to learn two or three different skill sets as each are automated out of existence. i would not waste a lot of money on learning a skill that you do not know how long will exist. :(
Recessionary Forecast: Prisoners Of Housing [View article]
http://bit.ly/x9OSHJ
http://bit.ly/zCtEAe
China, India: A Hard Landing Is Very Unlikely [View article]
and adding to your point, economies do not turn on a dime. the results of good and bad policies sometime take many years to manifest.
China, India: A Hard Landing Is Very Unlikely [View article]
You are making the point i did not get across well - everyone is judging China's future by extrapolating as if the event was in their country.
China is simply geared differently.
China, India: A Hard Landing Is Very Unlikely [View article]
i do not see any pundit have enough insight to quantify the contagion a banking crisis.
2012 Predictions: Just A Dice Roll [View article]
2012 Predictions: Just A Dice Roll [View article]
2012 Predictions: Just A Dice Roll [View article]
2012 Predictions: Just A Dice Roll [View article]
the question on the table is how much can they contract at this point?
Headwinds For 2012 And Beyond [View article]
We are also seeing the beginning of a 1Q2012 economic slowdown - not indicating a recession at this point. Our forward looking indicators become less precise the further we move them out - and therefore we do not release these "guesses". At this point, we too see a 2Q strengthening, but i would not take this to the bank.
Unfortunately, neither of our forecasts are worth much as it will be events in Europe which will determine the USA economy. I am not worried that a simple gdp contraction in Europe will weaken the USA economy into a recession. My worry is a banking contagion.
However, at this point I am optimistic that the Eurozone will react enough to prevent a banking meltdown - even though at this point the mechanisms are inadequate.
This is what happens when governments (all advance economies) continue to paper over severe issues believing they will go away.
The Big Money Crunch [View article]
Arguing For The Coming Recession [View article]
Fixing The Eurozone - Old Fashioned Inflation And Deflation [View article]
What Lakshman (ECRI) is pointing out is that most of the data used by the NBER to date recessions is in series that are revised for many months after being first released, and are notorious at being completely wrong at economic turning points. however, you can pick forward looking data which is not revised (so you do not have to wait a year to see if you are in a recession). Econintersect uses mostly non-monetary data points which are not subject to revision.
i have limited vision yet into the first quarter of 2012 - the first piece of data is positive (but the rest could be negative). personally, i think that Europe will determine if the USA recesses - if they are able to keep financial contagion under control, the USA has a better than even chance of avoiding a downturn.
House Prices Have Further To Fall [View article]
but alas, all things are not equal. the money a buyer must bring to the table is back to 1970 levels for repeat buyers - and first time buyers also must pony up a big down. my first home in the early 70's was 1% down and $99 closing costs.
the demographic shift has big houses in the suburbs, when the next wave of buyers wants something smaller in near where they work. they do not want the to mow the lawn on saturdays - and room to park the rv (which they can no longer afford). when you can rent want you want significantly cheaper than you can buy it, it slows home ownership down when every penny counts.
the 600# gorilla here is disposable income and home prices continuing to fall. buyers are in placed in a position where they could lose their capital. it is impossible to say homes are affordable or a good deal when the costs of ownership is above people's means. :(
Economic Data Releases: Revisions Can Kill You [View article]
What Gives With Consumer Credit? [View article]
Even Prof Krugman believes university education is a waste of money in 2011. my grandson is being told to learn a trade - i graduated university but i was also a licensed plumber (a trade learned from my father). at one point i was a certified welder. the world is automating - and on the brink of an artificial intelligence revolution that will do away with bank tellers, cashiers, and even engineers and investment analysts.
maybe in a lifetime in the future, you will have to learn two or three different skill sets as each are automated out of existence. i would not waste a lot of money on learning a skill that you do not know how long will exist. :(