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Steven Hansen

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  • Is Joe Sixpack Returning To Consumption? [View article]
    whenever any author uses charts from FRED - the indices and the formula to create the chart is shown in the code. in this case the code is:
    ( ( oehrenwbshno + a576rc1 ) / pop ) * (dspic96 / dspi ) * 1000000

    just put oehrenwbshno into google search - you will be brought to the page that explains. same with the other code in this formula.

    i tend to use a lot of FRED graphs in my analysis so that readers understand that i am not playing with the data (or at least know how i am playing with the data).
    Jul 8 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Joe Sixpack Returning To Consumption? [View article]
    One thing about Joe, he has been down for so long - will he even respond to improving conditions (as he likely will assume they are temporary - and they may be temporary regardless). My view from the cheap seats is that everything seems to be on hold - waiting for the next shoe to drop.

    this is one reason we were uncomfortable with reading too much into the results of this index. if this was pre-great recession, i would have no qualms about touting Joe's return.

    an finally, presidential election years normally give the economy a boost - but the last one did not.

    One final point, i really work at finding an element which is recessionary. there just is nothing. yes, somethings are close - but the real economy (non-monetary things i can count) seems like it is growing at a moderate clip.
    Jul 8 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joe Sixpack's Recession - The Sequel [View article]
    Dancing -
    right on target. i cover student loans extensively.

    and this is the only real growth element of the consumer. and to amplify Old Trader's comment - student loans are the number one asset on the fed's books too:
    Jun 25 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Joe Sixpack's Economy Deep Into A Recession? [View article]
    lot of questions, and they deserve answers which i will try to cover in the coming weeks in my posts (as they are not simple answers). but i have a short answer to your depression question - it is a matter of definition. if this was pre-ww2, we would call today's economy a depression.

    i am trying to lay out an argument that gdp is not the only way to look at an economy - and that the economy looks different depending on your position in it and how you view it.
    Jun 18 08:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Joe Sixpack's Economy Deep Into A Recession? [View article]
    if one backs out student loans, per capital consumer credit has been falling since the beginning of the recession. i am not one to argue lifestyle changes as i know no way to analytically present this - except to say that consumer sentiment is so low that it is hard to imagine that the average Joe is not thinking his life is worse.
    Jun 17 09:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Joe Sixpack's Economy Deep Into A Recession? [View article]
    Old Trader,
    Your comment brings a smile to my face. Jeff is one of my favorite authors. Jeff is not arguing the economy - he is arguing investing strategy. and not trying to shock, Jeff and I communicate off the record at regular intervals - and this article was a by-product of a discussion between us. And no, it was not a response to an argument - this flowed from a discussion of GDP, and one's ability to remove segments of GDP for stand-alone analysis.

    he seems to tolerate my existence in his universal, and i am thankful.
    Jun 17 10:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Eurozone Crisis Is Not Greece, But Keeping The Banks Healthy [View article]
    skiman and John - yes, the $90 million was gross revenue. sorry for the error.
    Jun 2 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Improving Tax Revenues Showing The Economy Is Improving? [View article]
    Oilfinder - thanks for the link. yah know, nothing is what you think it is.

    for me, it is so dangerous to watch a single metric and assume ("make an ass out of you and me") the data, the data accumulation, or the data derivation process mimics the economy - even if it has historical correlation. i have been burned many times.
    May 28 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Economic Summary For Week Ending 25May2012 Still Shows Weakly Improving Economy [View instapost]
    Thanks Untrusting..........
    May 27 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Economy Is Saying: Another Strange Week [View article]
    Logical -

    rail is contracting and you did not reference my latest post.
    Apr 16 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summary Of Economic Events For Week Ending 06 April 2012 [View instapost]
    My normal weekend article is up at Econintersect showing how your understanding of unemployment is being corrupted by the way the unemployment numbers are derived.
    Also a great post by Elliott Morss explains why the US banking crisis is not over yet.
    I have just posted a review of consumer credit which shows it is still expanding faster than economic expansion.
    we have posted an opinion piece from Rodger Mitchell who is attacking Obama for capitulating to the right.
    and finally, my partner John Lounsbury has posted a controversial article on when multifamily residences.
    Apr 8 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
    Econintersect uses employment to population ratios, not unemployment rates in any of its analysis. However, our approach to Okun's law does NOT approach using any variant of labor slack (such as unemployment) - but uses employment side numbers only.

    yet the results are the same - there is a deviation. i am not a quant, so having this deviation is interesting (would like to understand why) - but i tend to believe the theory that momentum governs until it no longer does. the jobs data is overall mediocre - but the momentum is bright.
    Apr 1 10:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
    Dancing, all data comes with buts.

    i make no mistake in believing the new jobs are as good as the old jobs - and this should be a topic of a complete post.

    i continuously struggle to find balance in my posts - as i want to convey the greyness of the data. i tend to error on the gloomy side when i feel the public perception is too rosy, and error on the rosy side when the public perception is too gloomy.

    with word count and hyperlink limitations in posts, i find i must either cover subjects with increasing narrowness - or must deliver a broad overview lacking detail or adequate qualifications.
    Apr 1 10:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
    Cautious - good observation.
    Apr 1 10:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
    these are not gubmint numbers. all numbers are correlated across a number of government and non-government sources (but not in real time). i am a conspiracy theorist, and i find no evidence in any numbers i report (except labor statistics) of an evil hand playing with the data.

    labor is a different issue because the headlines are based on flawed methodology.
    Mar 26 08:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment