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Steven Hansen  

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  • There Is Little 'Fact' In The Austerity Vs. Deficit Spending Debate [View article]
    sfpdf - i consider no comment above critical. i give no more weight to Hunt / Lacy opinion than to Krugman - except i consider Krugman to be biased and not analytical.

    infrastructure spending is necessary for commerce - so its economic reward is not visible. infrastructure has a very low direct employment ratio per dollar spent - and that was THE major flaw in 1/3 of the stimulus for the great recession.

    in any large organization (government or private) - there is waste in its spending. some infrastructure spending will be misdirected or used to line somebodies pocket. there is no such thing as black and white - everything is a shade of grey.
    Apr 26, 2015. 08:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Building Sector Remains Surprisingly Weak Considering Families Need To Live Somewhere [View instapost]
    good day Tom - agreed but it is already there in the west, and the rest of the country is not far behind.
    Apr 18, 2015. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Are Strange Data Points For Our Forward Looking Markets [View instapost]
    petroleum products comprise a small portion of wholesale sales. most wholesale sectors are soft.
    Apr 12, 2015. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Obamacare Retarding Economic Growth? [View article]
    psinn - of course it could be true obamacare cost reducing effects could be coming - and it could also be true the current trends could continue. my favorite expression is the road to hell is paved with good intentions. not critically reading and analyzing the law initially created major defects. Americans are convinced that the government can deliver nothing well - but government mandated delivery suffers from the same type of defects. the key to me is that i see nothing which reduces the overall costs - just a forced middleman who is a profit center. so it is not logical to me that obamacare could reduce costs.
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Obamacare Retarding Economic Growth? [View article]
    Mjambrov - there are nuances depending on the graph whether the graph is for consumer or total economic spending - but in any event, it is total spending (insurance and out of pocket).
    Apr 7, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading Into The Jobs Situation [View instapost]
    this is a chicken and egg discussion - but even through the great recession - the change in rate of jobs growth lagged economic activity. it is true that jobs creation brings more job creation - and in this respect it is not lagging. but if this was the only dynamic in play, there would never be a fall in employment levels.
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading Into The Jobs Situation [View instapost]
    my focus is on changes on rate of growth - especially when we have a Fed holding a zirp based on a mandate on jobs growth. you may be assuming i am trashing this jobs report - but i am a trend person (like you) - and a declining trend remains in play until the decline stops.

    this report was a game changer because it negated all the jobs reports for 2015 with this reset.
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watching The Economy Slow [View article]
    oil movements by rail are a very small proportion of rail car movements.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For The Positives Of Lower Fuel Prices [View article]
    you are absolutely correct - lower prices mean consumers have more choices what to do with what is left over after spending for essentials. and yes, it is going somewhere (which is not apparent yet in the data).

    but they were counting on improvement in GDP - the only metric they follow.
    Feb 22, 2015. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rethinking Investing In India [View article]
    all banks are majority owned by the government - the two largest are 100%
    Jan 12, 2015. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Forces May Act On The Markets In 2015? [View article]
    it is fast change which creates the dynamics with unpredictable consequences. it is not high or low prices, but the speed they change.
    Jan 5, 2015. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasty Storm Brewing In Trade [View instapost]
    i just ran across this post:
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasty Storm Brewing In Trade [View instapost]
    fincyn - yes the work slowdowns, fire, and backlog all had effects. but we are talking trends here - not one month out of alignment. there could also be a change in seasonal shipping which also could account for some of this.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forward Looking Indicators Disagree - One Is Wrong [View instapost]
    what you are looking at is the new LEI. they missed the 2008 recession - and ecri did not. since that time, ecri has called one recession which did not occur. at this point - their both have a one win / one loss track record.

    i am not negative on ecri - i know the financial community does not like them because they only like indices which show the future is bright. according to economists and market pumpers - the economy never will contract :)
    Nov 22, 2014. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lack Of Rental Units Can Trigger Inflation [View article]
    40 percent of the consumer price index is costs for rental housing. so YES - rental housing prices significantly influence the way inflation is calculated.
    Nov 22, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment