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Steven Hansen  

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  • Year-Over-Year Rail Trends Continue To Degrade [View instapost]
    YoY truck transport up 2.1% for August according to the ATA. unfortunately, the data behind these numbers is not available for analysis - but the AAR provides the breakdown.

    I do accept that there is a better correlation of truck employment to economic performance than rail. Still, the rail numbers are an outlier - and I am not quick to dismiss this data.
    Sep 27, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Softness In Economic Fundamentals [View article]
    re: inventory to sales ratios. although i believe in reality these ratios are elevated - the problem is deflation. most companies use fifo (first in, first out). that means inventory is valued above its replacement value. for now, i cannot sort out the realistic inventory values so i have chosen to ignore this metric.

    there is no question that business is struggling right now - and i see no dynamic in play which will improve this.
    Aug 2, 2015. 08:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking About Small Business Perceptions [View article]
    all sentiment is coincident information - i am not sure i would call them indicators of anything except perceptions. however, since small business is an employment driver - their perceptions must be managed.
    Jul 5, 2015. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Wrong With GDP Seasonality? [View instapost]
    June -
    i complain EVERY time about GDP measurements - either they are too high or too low. Incidentally, we had a brutal winter last year also (and the year before that).
    May 31, 2015. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Wrong With GDP Seasonality? [View instapost]
    Mike -
    this is not a statistic. GDP does not measure the world I live in - the quality of my life, how well i can live within my income, etc. Further, GDP removes or adjusts economic activity (such as inventory movements or imports) which are a measure of economic activity for Joe Sixpack.

    GDP is an outdated measure designed for a backed currency economic measures.
    May 31, 2015. 08:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perpetualization Of The Too Big To Fail Banks [View article]
    Lawrence, I do not believe regulations work unless there are criminal remedies AND they are enforced. Except for stock price decline, i only saw small banks where the shareholders were shaved - the tbtf escaped. the big boys in the financial community financially supports politicians - and there is no political will to punish the tbtf boys club.

    again - we cannot afford a collapse of the financial sector - and i do not want to be put in a position where the country needs to bolster the big banks, and just feed the little banks to the wolves.
    May 19, 2015. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perpetualization Of The Too Big To Fail Banks [View article]
    good day Lawrence

    you are discussing a different point than i was making. my points are that:

    1) they have codified the big banks permanently into the financial system.
    2) they have removed the punishing effects of failure to the very existence of large banks. the aftermath of failure should be a new crop of banks - not rebirthing an existing bank.

    it remains true that a failure progression would not care if it was large banks or small banks - the net effect likely is the same during the failure progression. but the aftermath is different is an open market situation where new players can join.

    a strong financial system is imperative. to believe that the route is to buttress it based on big banks being to big to fail is an illusion.

    incidentally, i basically agree with the point you are making in your comment - i just want to point out that it is not the point i was making.
    May 18, 2015. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Data Is Showing The Economy Is Slowing But ..... [View instapost]
    production is not new orders which are currently negative.

    good morning bbro - i agree we are not entering a recession - but note we entered the last recession with consumer durables rather strong. there is a lot of discrepancies currently in the data - and i cannot allow myself to bog down on a single data point. i need to see several key data points in contraction - and mostly they are just weak.
    May 16, 2015. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Little 'Fact' In The Austerity Vs. Deficit Spending Debate [View article]
    sfpdf - i consider no comment above critical. i give no more weight to Hunt / Lacy opinion than to Krugman - except i consider Krugman to be biased and not analytical.

    infrastructure spending is necessary for commerce - so its economic reward is not visible. infrastructure has a very low direct employment ratio per dollar spent - and that was THE major flaw in 1/3 of the stimulus for the great recession.

    in any large organization (government or private) - there is waste in its spending. some infrastructure spending will be misdirected or used to line somebodies pocket. there is no such thing as black and white - everything is a shade of grey.
    Apr 26, 2015. 08:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Building Sector Remains Surprisingly Weak Considering Families Need To Live Somewhere [View instapost]
    good day Tom - agreed but it is already there in the west, and the rest of the country is not far behind.
    Apr 18, 2015. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Are Strange Data Points For Our Forward Looking Markets [View instapost]
    petroleum products comprise a small portion of wholesale sales. most wholesale sectors are soft.
    Apr 12, 2015. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Obamacare Retarding Economic Growth? [View article]
    psinn - of course it could be true obamacare cost reducing effects could be coming - and it could also be true the current trends could continue. my favorite expression is the road to hell is paved with good intentions. not critically reading and analyzing the law initially created major defects. Americans are convinced that the government can deliver nothing well - but government mandated delivery suffers from the same type of defects. the key to me is that i see nothing which reduces the overall costs - just a forced middleman who is a profit center. so it is not logical to me that obamacare could reduce costs.
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Obamacare Retarding Economic Growth? [View article]
    Mjambrov - there are nuances depending on the graph whether the graph is for consumer or total economic spending - but in any event, it is total spending (insurance and out of pocket).
    Apr 7, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading Into The Jobs Situation [View instapost]
    this is a chicken and egg discussion - but even through the great recession - the change in rate of jobs growth lagged economic activity. it is true that jobs creation brings more job creation - and in this respect it is not lagging. but if this was the only dynamic in play, there would never be a fall in employment levels.
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading Into The Jobs Situation [View instapost]
    my focus is on changes on rate of growth - especially when we have a Fed holding a zirp based on a mandate on jobs growth. you may be assuming i am trashing this jobs report - but i am a trend person (like you) - and a declining trend remains in play until the decline stops.

    this report was a game changer because it negated all the jobs reports for 2015 with this reset.
    Apr 5, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment