Steven Hansen

In Earnings Season, Who Cares About the Unemployment Rate?

This is a very interesting comment stream and article. i disagree with nothing said - and this should tell you everyone is on a different page.

i know how hard it is to write an article and convey all your thoughts - as well as writing an opinion.

what the author was saying is that the investors are reacting to earnings and not the terrible unemployment. as a businessman, i will tell you they are rationalizing to the new normal - and they will be fairly profitable shortly.

this is the short term fundamental.

the jobs situation is a long term fundamental. it has so many ugly facets - many of which are described above. the biggest problem is a social one - tell me what you do with you kids still living at home, or engaging in underground activities.

the government is responsible for fostering an environment for the expansion of a jobs market. the wrongly believe that money thrown at the economy will expand jobs. we have proven again that this method does not work.

we need to re-evaluate our tax structure, education, regulations, environmental laws, and import regulations to make them pro-jobs.

Why FedEx and UPS Are Better Economic Indicators than Alcoa

freight transportation - especially trucking, rail and sea containers are powerful indicators as literally our entire commerce system flows through them.

they will lag slightly the usual indicators of manufacture and employment (which are the primary elements of the nber's recession ending indicators) - but are able to quantify more quickly. so transport will be the first indicator we will see rising.

in my mind, ups and fedex being biased more towards the consumer market - are indicators of consumer consumption more than industrial production.

but i am willing to make a bet that the management at alcoa will see the beginning of recovery before any other indicator.