Steven Hansen

Are We More Like 1932 - or 1923?

Martin, i also am in general agreement with the thrust of your arguments. i would like to make the following points:

- at this point in the Great Recession, world trade has fallen over 35% (japan is down 60%). if we remove oil from this number (as it was insignificant in 1930) - world trade is already off 65%. in a perfect world there should be no duties - but our world is imperfect with huge differences in labor costs and currency values.

- movements of investments needed to be timed. the dollar will not crash in the next week. going to an investment too early will cause painful losses in the interim. bonds are a good investment for now if you purchase them inside an etf (such as TIP). exactly because of what Martin is suggesting will happen, you do not want to own bonds directly where you cannot get out of them in a key stroke.

- echoing what RW Richmond says - it is better your gold is physical. it does you little good in a vault in london during a black swan event.

Gold: The Next Reserve Currency Player

i would be happy if gold became a currency - or even a true reserve currency. however, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (or the rest of the GCC) do not worry about what happens after oil as there are significant mineral deposits also.

arabs are traders and merchants. they will buy gold and silver when they can - but they will be purchasing it privately so not to drive the price up. they will do nothing to drive the value down of fiat currencies.