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Steven M. Rogé  

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  • UFP Technologies - Molding Long-Term Growth [View article]
    Thanks Matt,

    I hadn't seen your article, but will take a look!

    Regards,

    Steven
    Sep 6, 2013. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Investing - Be Careful About Extremes [View article]
    Hi Marc,

    Could you share your P123 formula you use to eliminate the outlier companies? The one I'm using just seems to calculate the zscore, but doesn't apply is to the data set.

    Here's what I'm using:
    SetVar(@zeps%chgTTM,ZS...

    Any help would be greatly appreciated.
    Apr 1, 2012. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L-3 Communication: Camouflaged Value [View article]
    Thanks Energy-Trader,

    I'm glad you enjoyed the article!

    Regards,

    Steven
    Feb 23, 2012. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L-3 Communication: Camouflaged Value [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    Don't forget about that growing dividend!

    Regards,

    Steven
    Feb 23, 2012. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Hi Davel,

    If you look at our example in the table above you can see that the repurchase of share directly affects share price. My advice is to replicate the table, often doing the calculation is the best way to learn.

    Regards,

    Steven
    Feb 23, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Hi Davel,

    If you think Apple is going down in price, then yes, a share repurchase plan is a waste of money. If however, you believe buying Apple stock is a good investment then a share buyback is worth while.
    Feb 22, 2012. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    "I don't favor a buyback. It requires a"reaction" from the investment community to add to my bottom line. Where as a dividend would have a "direct" impact on my bottom line, not requiring others to see the value in AAPL."

    Well put, thanks for the comment.

    Regards,

    Steven
    Feb 22, 2012. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Hi fshattuk thank you for the comment,

    We address the tax issue in a previous comment.

    Regards,

    Steven
    Feb 21, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Hi Davel,

    Thanks for the comment. I'll do my best to address your questions:

    1. We don't think Apple should keep $40B, this is my best guess as to how much they will WANT to keep for purposes of working capital, acquisitions, etc.
    2. We think changing the P/E multiple is a easy way to manipulate price targets and is speculation. To be honest we don't know what multiple the market will assign the company over the next twelve months. It could be 16x or 8x, so we assume status quo (14x).
    3. Based on our DCF analysis, there is 40% upside in Apple shares. This is much greater than the market. One can assume that once an investor receives their cash dividend they will invest it into the market. We think the potential for broader market returns over the next ten years is limited. In other words, Apple is a better investment than an index fund or cash.
    4. The $845 intrinsic value is an updated DCF calculation from our previous article here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Regards,

    Steven
    Feb 21, 2012. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Hi,

    Thanks for the comment. I completely agree with you assessment.

    Regards,

    Steven
    Feb 21, 2012. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Yes I believe the share price is holding back the average investor from getting in because it is perceived "expensive". But the more sophisticated investor knows the shares are actually cheap at 11x ex-cash earnings.
    Feb 21, 2012. 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Hi thanks for the comment. Our $875 intrinsic value estimate does NOT take into account any share buybacks. It actually factors in 1% share dilution per year.
    Feb 21, 2012. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Option Is To Initiate A Share Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Yes, they would have to repatriate dollars to do a share repurchase on the order of magnitude that this example lays out. It was intended not as a realistic example of what will happen, but more to illustrate the size of the balance sheet and the optionality that Apple has because of their success.
    Feb 21, 2012. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MediWare: Profiting From Government Healthcare IT Stimulus [View article]
    Yes, there are better opportunities in the market today.

    We will be posting our research on a number of defense stocks soon.

    Please stay tuned!

    Regards,

    Steven
    Feb 13, 2012. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Och-Ziff: A Hedge Fund With an Upside [View article]
    Hi,

    The $1.40 EPS figure is Reuter's compilation on analyst estimates. Incentive income swings by the day. You can try to run some sensitivity tests based on different market conditions and different inflows/outflows to get a rough estimate. For example, if their funds return 10% this year they will earn approximately 20% of $26B, or $520mm in performance fees. There are 98mm class A shares outstanding so this would represent $5.31 per share in revenue. Back out costs and one-time items to arrive at economic income. Put an estimate on what OZM's management will decide to distribute as a percentage of economic income and you can back into distributable earnings and yield.

    Regards,

    Steven
    Aug 18, 2011. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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