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Steven Reiman

 
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  • Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp.: A Favorable Bet On Rising Interest Rates [View article]
    I've looked into TWO. I believe they are actually having some issues acquiring MSR's even though they, as you mention, are now set up from a regulatory perspective to own them. Apparently we are still waiting on the big sell off from the banks. CHMI is nice because they have their own proprietary pipeline through Freedom.
    Jan 4 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp.: A Favorable Bet On Rising Interest Rates [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. NRZ is an interesting one although you need to really trust in management as they are buying into pools that are much riskier (2005-2007 vintage as I recall). The Fortress guys are pros so it should probably work out but you need to watch this one much closer than CHMI IMHO.
    Jan 4 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp.: A Favorable Bet On Rising Interest Rates [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, hopefully it works out.
    Jan 4 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp.: A Favorable Bet On Rising Interest Rates [View article]
    Unfortunately I have not found another that is a pure play on MSR's.
    Jan 4 06:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StealthGas: Is It Time To Buy This Growing Shipping Company? [View article]
    I agree that the company could benefit from this tailwind. My question is, given that there are very little scale benefits in shipping, why were investors diluted at a large discount to NAV? How do current shareholders benefit from this?
    Dec 28 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StealthGas: Is It Time To Buy This Growing Shipping Company? [View article]
    The next 6 months is fine. My point in the article is that they have ships being delivered over the next two years and its hard to say how the supply/demand dynamic will change over that time period. That is what makes buying new ships so difficult (the long lead time)

    Stealth has the exact same management in place. Harry has been that since the beginning and Konstantinos as been with him for a number of years.
    Dec 28 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StealthGas: Is It Time To Buy This Growing Shipping Company? [View article]
    I don't really have any strong disagreements with anything you say. The biggest problem is I don't want to buy into this company only to be blindsided by yet another equity offering. There are no economies of scale in shipping so there really is no reason to dilute shareholders at large discounts to NAV.

    The only reason I could see doing so is if they really believe that their book value is overstated which very well could be true if they have not written down their MR Tankers which as memory serves they bought at the peak of the market.
    Dec 28 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulse Seismic: Year End Update [View article]
    Turned out to be somewhat negative news as the company has reported that this fourth quarter is coming in lower than historical averages.

    http://yhoo.it/1cbeaR8
    Dec 27 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulse Seismic: Year End Update [View article]
    IROC stops trading for all kinds of reasons but yes, could potentially be some positive news.
    Dec 27 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Year End Update [View article]
    Thanks for the response and all of the other comments, those are all factors that need to be considered.

    I'm less concerned about the ultra deep rigs as I believe that they might have a tough time getting permits from the UK government. Just thinking out loud but in my opinion It is in the UK's best interest to have the mid-water rigs working in the North Sea versus ultra deep rigs as ultra deep rigs can always leave for more lucrative waters if Brent starts to rise whereas midwater are much less likely to leave.

    The UK doesn't want to find itself in a situation where a bunch of old mid-water rigs get scrapped only to see the deepwater rigs leave for greener pastures once Brent begins to rise.

    Steve
    Dec 26 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Year End Update [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1cUATC8;highlight=

    News release referenced*
    Dec 26 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Year End Update [View article]
    I'm $40mm too high if they will spend the full $15mm the same year they do the SPS overhaul. That might very well be the case but I would think that maintenance capex would be the lower the year where they do an upgrade on the rigs. Hopefully Cathrine gets back to me to clarify.

    In the end, these changes don't really change my thinking substantially. What I'm more concerned about are UK dayrates and the proposed new tax law. If this company can continue to hire out the rigs and payout a 15-20% dividend consistently over the next 10 years (other than the overhaul years) then this should be a home run. If not then I'll probably lose money.

    Also just an interesting sidebar - the rigs that Awilco ultimately bought were originally going to be bought by Northern Offshore for $750M...four times what Awilco paid. The deal with Northern fell through when the world blew up. Given the extent to which Brent has recovered, the rigs are most likely worth much closer to what Northern was going to pay than what Awilco paid.

    Curious to get your thoughts on the company.

    Steve
    Dec 26 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Year End Update [View article]
    The BOP cost will be averaged out (more or less) since they have to order some of the long lead time parts now and up to the yard date.

    My mistake was thinking that the SPS and BOP cost were one in the same when in actuality they may be two distinct costs that the management team was quoting.
    Dec 25 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Year End Update [View article]
    Email sent to get clarification, will let you know what I hear. Below is the schedule I believe that should be used:

    2014: $15M maintenance capex, $15M BOP Cost

    2015: $15M maintenance capex, $15M BOP Cost

    2016: $40M SPS project (20M per rig), $15M BOP Cost

    2017: $15M maintenance capex
    If the above is accurate, then I am understating capex in 2016 in the article by $25M.

    Steve
    Dec 25 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Year End Update [View article]
    Agreed. Buffett's statement that you need to think about owning the underlying business is an overstated idea but it works well in this instance. I think about owning shares in Awilco as owning interests in two oil rigs that I anticipate earning an attractive return on for many years in the future. As long as they can be rented out, short term price fluctuations should mean very little to me.
    Dec 25 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
348 Comments
146 Likes