Seeking Alpha

Steven Reiman

View as an RSS Feed
View Steven Reiman's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Is It Time To Abandon Ship On Premier? [View article]
    Surely the comedic value of the conference calls must be worth something as well?
    Oct 11 10:53 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gramercy Property Trust Is Gettin' Its Turn At Bat [View article]
    Brad,

    I think you are double counting the BAC JV in your AFFO calculation as I believe that GPT includes the JV NOI in their pro-forma. Please let me know if this is incorrect but if it is not including the JV, it means that GPT has spent roughly $405M on their lease portfolio outside of the BAC JV. This seems far too high.

    This would mean your AFFO calc is overstated by $14M. This is somewhat offset by the fact that you are not including the additional equity capacity the company has to invest in new deals. This should net them around $10M of additional NOI once deployed.

    I thinkr you P/FFO is also out of date - GPT is trading nowhere near 1.7 P/FFO.

    Steve
    Jul 15 08:30 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Berkshire Hathaway Really Worth? A Comprehensive Look [View article]
    This is great, well done.
    Mar 27 05:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAExploration: Buy At A Discount To Crescendo Partners And Joel Greenblatt - 110% Upside [View article]
    Well Carbondale I have to admit I'm somewhat upset by this article as I literally had one I was about to submit on this company. This evening. In about 6 hours actually. Such is life I suppose.

    Nevertheless, it's a great thesis and I believe the company is substantially undervalued. It's a pretty binary outcome and as long as they can prove they can return to profitability next quarter, which should be no problem for this team, then the stock should pop as they regain credibility.

    Thanks for the article.

    Steve
    Nov 21 01:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gramercy: Is This Small Cap The Greatest Alpha Opportunity In REITs? [View article]
    If we take $1.5B of assets x 8% cap rate we come to $120M of NOI. Since we have $650M of equity that means we have $850M of debt. That is a somewhat reasonable debt percentage of 55% - I don't know if they will get that high but lets go with that.

    $850M of debt at 5% comes to $42.5M of interest expense. Backing that out of the NOI gives us $77.5M. We then back out $20M of MG&A and preferreds to get us to $57.5M of AFFO. Divide that by 141M shares gets us to 0.40/share of AFFO. Multiplying that by 15 gets us to $6/share, or 30% higher than today's price.

    Now, to get there GPT obviously needs to:

    Rapidly expand their portfolio at reasonable cap rates
    Get mortgages in the 5% range during a time of rising interest rates
    Raise additional equity
    Utilize a 55% debt mix

    This is obviously all back of the envelope math but the point I am trying to make is that there is still much to do to get to a $6 share price. The question investors need to ask is how long is:

    How long is this going to take...my guess is AT LEAST two years
    What impact is a rising interest rate environment driven by Fed tapering going to have

    Would be great to get your thoughts!

    Steve
    Oct 22 11:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Objective Look At The Performance Of Seeking Alpha's Alpha-Rich Articles [View article]
    Kevin,

    Thanks for putting in all of this work - will you be updating this in the future?
    Jul 28 04:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oracle Is Undervalued [View article]
    Purely from a qualitative standpoint, Oracle is a very compelling investment. It operates in a oligopoly (the only meaningful competitor it has is SAP) and sells a product that is an absolute necessity if you want to operate a large multinational company company. Try operating a billion dollar company on Quicken.

    The really interesting aspect is how customized Oracle's ERP systems are for each of their customers. Their products are not simple out of the box, plug and play type systems. Each company has their own unique customizations-these systems take tens of millions of dollars and years to implement. My point is that a CIO cannot just wake up one day and decide to switch to SAP. This gives Oracle enormous pricing power-once they install one of their systems for a customer, they basically have that customer for life.

    You can come up with a very compelling case for Oracle by reading Buffett's investment thesis for IBM. They both have the exact same market dynamics-long term customer relationships that are very hard to break.
    Nov 25 11:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dawson Geophysical Company: Piling Cash To The Ceiling [View article]
    Mike,

    I wrote about two others - Pulse Seismic and SAEX (Greenblatt). I sold Pulse after when it hit an end of December bounce. It has trended lower and I may buy back in but the seismic market in Canada has been weak. The overall O&G industry in the region is hurting due to logistical bottlenecks.

    SAEX is somewhat similar to Dawson but it is an international play whereas Dawson is exclusively in NA. SAEX's value prop is mainly around its expertise in managing seismic projects in extreme locations while Dawson's value is in its state of the art equipment and management's technical expertise.

    In the end, SAEX has higher upside but is riskier due to its high leverage. I expect them to report solid earnings for Q4 soon which should be the catalyst needed to drive the share price higher. Right now investors seem to still be spooked by the Q3 results which were marred by one time operational difficulties.

    Thanks for the comment.

    Steve
    Jan 30 07:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contango Oil: Crimson Adds Significant Value With Upside Of One-Third [View article]
    Nice article, I was a big fan of Ken Peak sad to see him go.
    Dec 23 12:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conrad Industries: A Special Dividend Is Imminent [View article]
    AV,

    Agree on all points, this might be my favorite investment at the moment. Also please let me know next time you find one of these.

    Steve
    Nov 11 11:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: A Sustainable 22% Dividend [View article]
    I would suggest changing brokers. I use Merrill and they charge one flat rate.

    Steve
    Aug 28 08:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Premier Exhibitions' Titanic Sale Sunk? [View article]
    Squeeky Wheel,

    I'm long but still appreciate you taking the time to write up an opposing viewpoint. Two sides make a market.

    Best Regards,

    Steve
    Apr 5 02:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dawson Geophysical Company: Piling Cash To The Ceiling [View article]
    It's mainly pricing but remember, there has been enormous pricing pressure on the E&P side with nat gas pricing being historically low (although beginning to trend upward). That has led to reduced capex spending on nat gas wells by E&P's.

    Thanks for the comment.

    Steve
    Jan 31 05:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dawson Geophysical Company: Piling Cash To The Ceiling [View article]
    It should be up now.

    I agree on your point on the CEO - my main point is now they have the best tools money can buy and then some (especially considering their purchase in October of another wireless system). At this point what more can he justifiably buy?

    Steve
    Jan 31 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dawson Geophysical Company: Piling Cash To The Ceiling [View article]
    Robin,

    Thanks for the note, I see the table hasn't come through. I have notified SA, the table should be in shortly.

    I take your point on gross profit but I wouldn't use that metric to measure the business. However, as we have both noted, price is becoming an issue in this industry so that could scare some investors away. However, the FCF is still compelling in my opinion.

    Steve
    Jan 31 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
348 Comments
146 Likes