Expect Bull Run For Treasuries And Cash [View article]
The 30 Year Treasury price is going to 120-127 over the course of the rest of 2013. Short Treasuries is a good trade at this time. http://bit.ly/32ndTO
The 30 Year Treasury price is going to 120-127 over the course of the rest of 2013. Short Treasuries will be one of the better trades for 2013. http://bit.ly/32ndTO
The 30 Year Treasury price is going to 120-127 over the course of the rest of 2013. Short Treasuries. I started a position in TMV last Monday. http://bit.ly/32ndTO
I agree with much of your analysis, but I do not think current market action is related to the so-called fiscal cliff outcome. Markets are already setting up for and pricing in another deflationary episode across the board. Gold has much fourthr to go on the downside, but I view this as big correction in a longer term bull market.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls To Lowest Level Since August [View article]
"Sentiment" is worse than useless as a market indictor. A niche segment of the financial industry sells data that purports to tell you what the crowd is doing, and flatters you that you can be the "smart money" and do the opposite. After all, don't we all want to feel like we are smarter than the pack? It's nonsense. The best thing you can do with such surveys is ignore them. I do look for times when everyone is banging on sentiment data to support their market view. THAT is sometimes a helpful contrarian indicator.
Stock Valuations Still Have Downside Potential [View article]
I'm sorry if you can't conceive of an environment in which there is no clear trend. It's really not a complicated concept. I was quite directionally bullish in March 2009, quite directionally bearish in April 2010, quite directionally bullish in September 2010 and quite directionally bearish in May 2011 and quite directionally bearish in October 2011. Now I am saying that we may not see strong directional moves of that sort for a while until the long term bear market grinds to an end.
Popular Stock Market Indicator Is Bullish [View article]
While there are indications that we will see a retest or a besting of the April highs in SPX and INDU soon, they are not likely to be confirmed by other US markets and sectors which are lagging badly. The MACD signal is not being confirmed by other technical indicators (at least so far).
Stock Valuations Still Have Downside Potential [View article]
No I am saying that the bear market is not over yet and could go on for another 12-18 months with triangular sideways action, and then go into another bull market leg, which would be the last phase of the larger, very long term bull market that began in 1932. It's my bad because I can see that more detail is needed here. What I'm trying to get at is that bulls may be right on a much longer term scale, but just like in 1981, they may be early. And early is just as good as wrong, no matter what side of the market you are playing. Bulls fervently want to believe that there is only upside and that those who don't buy now are missing the boat, bears believe that some sort of ultimate disaster is inevitable. The market likes to punish as many participants as possible, and a triangle ending a long term triangle bear market would certainly achieve that. Keep in mind that sideways movement is a bear market. A look at the chart of virtually any market since 2000 shows sideways movement and a look at most markets since early 2010 shows sideways movement.
Stock Valuations Still Have Downside Potential [View article]
No, if you actually read the article rather than just scanning it it is clear I am calling for a continued period of intense volatility that will ultimately end the bear market that started in 2000 and that another wave down is in the making.
Bond Market Review Q1 2013 [View article]
Expect Bull Run For Treasuries And Cash [View article]
The Absurdity Of A Bond Bubble [View article]
Bonds: Born to Be Mild [View article]
Invest In U.S. Treasuries [View article]
The 10-Year Yield May Be Flashing A Warning Sign [View article]
What To Watch For In The Bond Market [View article]
Bond Bubble Hasn't Burst [View article]
The Gold Bear Is Waking Up [View article]
AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls To Lowest Level Since August [View article]
Stock Valuations Still Have Downside Potential [View article]
Stock Valuations Still Have Downside Potential [View article]
Popular Stock Market Indicator Is Bullish [View article]
Stock Valuations Still Have Downside Potential [View article]
Stock Valuations Still Have Downside Potential [View article]