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Steven Vincent

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  • Is It Time To Short Stocks? [View article]
    I tend to agree with Cam. Stocks have completed a 6 week largely sideways consolidation during which a lot of underlying technical damage was done. The quality of the rally to the SPX 1900 area is likely to be very poor and a decent shorting opportunity (or at least long profit taking opportunity) should present itself there.

    It's not time to short stocks, but it is time to go long your favorite Treasuries vehicle. TLT could retrench to about the 200 EMA over the next few days, but long Treasuries is likely to be a better trade than short stocks once the market does make a top and then corrects.

    For more see my blog and visit my site.
    Mar 31 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Movers Week Of June 9, 2013: Weak Growth Vs. The Hilsenrath Omen? [View article]
    My take away is rather different. The recent pullback was more technical in nature than anything else. The market was technically overextended and that has been corrected now. New highs are not far away. There is far too much focus in "tapering". The stock market is rising because it is forecasting future economic growth 6-12 months down the line. Focusing in current conditions is a rear view mirror approach.
    Jun 9 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Is Triggered Again [View article]
    The HO has been a stellar bullish contrarian predictor of a rally whenever it gets media attention and trader "buzz" as it has now. A review of the financial blogosphere finds the bulls out in full force on a minor 2 week 3.2% correction.
    Jun 2 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Air Pocket Ahead - Part IV - II [View article]
    The Hindenburg Omen is pretty much a joke and a very reliable contrarian indicator when it starts making the news.
    Jun 1 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermarket Secular Shifts And The Great Rotation Trade: Long Stocks, Short Treasuries [View article]
    Thanks for the excellent question. The period from March 2009-February 2011 was a correction of the drop from 2007-2009 in the context of a large sideways bear market that began in 2000. The period from 2011-November 2012 was another sideways period within the larger sideways pattern that ended the larger pattern (an E wave triangle ending a larger triangle). Again, this is exactly what happened in the 1966-1982 period, with 1974 playing the role of the 2009 bottom and 1982 playing the role of the November 2012 bottom. In retrospect the beginning of the last bull market is marked from the 1982 bottom by most analysts. I suspect that we may see it that way in a few years after the dust settles. There are many, many technical charts and ratio charts and even price charts which show this more clearly than the major US averages. Lots of distortion in the major US averages was introduced due to QE making the pattern less evident. $XVG Value Line Geometric Index shows it quite clearly: http://bit.ly/14YPsmG
    May 27 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermarket Secular Shifts And The Great Rotation Trade: Long Stocks, Short Treasuries [View article]
    The drop to $45 is based on technical work and the same work suggests that it won't stay down there, but rather chop around in a large range for some number of years. I think that the crude oil call is the weakest link in the overall intermarket outlook, but I am confident it will be borne out. It is the smallest part of my position by far. And the stop loss is very close by if proven wrong.

    I think we are going to see the crude oil producers forward sell a lot of production if WTIC breaks below $92 and the technicals will take hold and we will see the big drop to $45. That would serve as a positive shock stimulus to the economy and help the real economy get into breakaway mode and also provide cover for the Fed to start to ease back.
    May 27 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermarket Secular Shifts And The Great Rotation Trade: Long Stocks, Short Treasuries [View article]
    Yes I think we will see weakness in Crude to $45.00 but it will not stay there, but rather chop around in a large range for a long time. And I think that WTIC may outperform Brent to the downside, probably due to increasing US production.
    May 27 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    While we may see a week of sideways churning here, allowing for an internal technical correction, it's also possible that the market has already completed a minor pullback and will continue the rally this week. The mistake that the author (and a vast majority of bulls and bears alike) is making is that he believes the bull market started in 2009. The actual bull market started in November 2012 and we are in the early stages of the bull. This is akin to the 1974 price bottom but the actual bull market starting with the 1982 bottom. For more: http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 26 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Run Likely To Continue So Long As Low Quality Outperforms High Quality [View article]
    "It doesn't take any research to know that equity investors are in feel good times."

    It's dangerous to simply make blanket assumptions like that. There is an excellent argument to be made that "investors" are still hiding out in the safety of bonds and dividend paying stocks like Utilities and health care. "Investors" are just now starting to roll out of those safety plays. The assumption that 'investors" are all in stocks and that we don't need to question that assumption is one of the psychological underpinnings of this bull market.
    May 21 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermarket Secular Shifts And The Great Rotation Trade: Long Stocks, Short Treasuries [View article]
    I think it is going to be the story of 2013 that few were looking for. An abundant supply of crude oil priced 50% lower is a real game changer.
    May 21 10:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Market Review Q1 2013 [View article]
    The 30 Year Treasury price is going to 120-127 over the course of the rest of 2013. http://bit.ly/32ndTO
    May 12 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Bull Run For Treasuries And Cash [View article]
    The 30 Year Treasury price is going to 120-127 over the course of the rest of 2013. Short Treasuries is a good trade at this time. http://bit.ly/32ndTO
    May 12 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Absurdity Of A Bond Bubble [View article]
    The 30 Year Treasury price is going to 120-127 over the course of the rest of 2013. Short Treasuries will be one of the better trades for 2013. http://bit.ly/32ndTO
    May 12 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds: Born to Be Mild [View article]
    The 30 Year Treasury price is going to 120-127 over the course of the rest of 2013. It's time to short Treasuries. http://bit.ly/32ndTO
    May 12 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Invest In U.S. Treasuries [View article]
    The 30 Year Treasury price is going to 120-127 over the course of the rest of 2013. Short Treasuries. I started a position in TMV last Monday. http://bit.ly/32ndTO
    May 12 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
350 Comments
361 Likes