Steven Ward

Canadian Oil Sands Trust Is Now the Single Most Attractive Oil Acquisition Target

Politically and economically speaking, Canada has a great incentive to encourage China to develop her oil sand assets rather than buy a share of Syncrude.

Canadian Oil Sands: Why a Larger Syncrude Holding Makes Sense

COS paid Talisman 400 plus million for Talisman's 1.25 percent interest in Syncrude so 3 billion might be a slight bargain for COS.

Doubt if a foreign buyer will appear due to the lack of pipeline capacity flowing to Vancouver.

Nexen and Suncor will probably do a deal with each other on Buzzard in the North Sea so probably no selling their Syncrude assets.
Unless Nexen wants the money for buying Buzzard from Suncor.

Imperial is committed to Kearle and other heavy oil expansion projects so no interest there.

That leaves Murphy Oil. Murphy wants to expand a refinery to an additional 175 to 200 thousand barrels per day.
So that leaves only COS and Murphy as buyers because Suncor and Nexen are like Imperial, already have bitumen projects on the boards.
Two buyers may be enough to heat up the bidding. Maybe just maybe.
Otherwise COS would be in the driver's seat.
One to two bidders that'sit, I think.

Canadian Royalty Trusts in Need of an American Revolution

To Glen Breaks, thanks for the info. Also, I'm not happy that Canadians maybe mis-treated on their US investments.

A lower distribution with a tax credit. Sounds like the old definition of a tie football game, "like kissing your sister".
At least you get the tax credit and I'm sincerely happy for fellow my fellow Canadian investors.
I've never argued for one world government, just look at the UN. yuk!!!
But Canada is a member of the English speaking family of countries as is the US and with an established legacy of property rights.
Canada and the US as well, should live up to the ideal if not the letter of property rights.
That should be on the NAFTA renegotiation for both countries.

On the investment side: the Canroys should convert sooner as I opined in my first article. I strongly believe that the defenders of any delay are still chasing yield and that is not good for their overall return.

Canadian Royalty Trusts in Need of an American Revolution

I have never owned any Canroys but two which I;m happy with. They are Canadian Oil Sands Trust and Crescent Point. I do not paint all Canroys with a tainted brush, just 90 percent of them.

In response to Glen Breaks: Your perspective and benefits are from the Canadian perspective not the American perspective. Our situation will be different in units held in an approved IRA or 401K as it currently stands. Also, the US government allows a tax credit for the 15 percent withholding but after 2011 is the large question. While Obama may not raise taxes his administration certainly will not advance credits for the investor class.
As far as inaccuracies go just read Penn West's 2007 annual report I quoted it in my previous article. If you are a Canadian you are fine, if you are not you are a second class investor.

Canadian Royalty Trusts in Need of an American Revolution

In response to money leaving Canada, what did they expect comming here and asking for American capital.

If Americans write one paragraph to Obana in any sizeable number it may have an action un anticipated by the doubters. Canada will not sell her oil to anyone but us. The Canadians know where the largest market in the world is.

Canadian Oil Sands Barely Affected by Syncrude-Alberta Agreement

It is more evidence that Alberta is placing its economic bet on tar sands and unconventional gas than the conventional producers. The bet pays off only if the oil picture rights itself and the cancelations of projects and slow down on projects stops and the estimated 250 billion dollars in construction starts anew.
Otherwise, Alberta has shot herself in the foot with conventional production scattering to the other provinces. But then again, I believe this was planned.

COSWF.PK was in the driver's seat all along with cancelations announced on future projects and an iron clad contract with the Alberta government until 2015.

COSWF.PK CEO, Marcel Coutu, is a shareholders dream. After being directly lied to by the Harper regime he mounted an industry effort that went all the way to the Gates of Ottawa. Then he pounded on the Gates. It's about time a CEO expended some passion for the benefit of his shareholders. Hats off to Coutu playing the game well.

Canadian Oil Sands Looks Attractive Despite Near Term Risk

Added note: I own Crescent Point energy trust and I'm now wondering why I didn't follow my own maxim of "if you have 5 years woth of non-compounded yield in cap gains, always sell." No matter what.
I guess I'll ride it down with everbody else.

Canadian Oil Sands Looks Attractive Despite Near Term Risk

Wulf should be hailed for conjuring up his Mcdep ratio. However, like all measurements it is a snapshot in time. The weakness in McDep ratio is an assumption of the price of a barrel of oil. This assumption is somewhat static, as it needs to be, for investment valuations.
The weakness is the volatility of oil itself as well as gas.
I think after today, the "theoretical" price of oil will have to change for valuation purposes. The 6 year futures will change as well.
Thus, a lower Mc Dep ratio, which is usually a
"'buy" may actually become a "sell" or a "neutral", like COS is now due to a re-adjustment of the price of a barrel of oil.
Additionally, all Canroy's will face the possibility of lowering their payouts if oil continues to slide, increasing debt or shareholder dilution if they do not lower payouts.
Gentlemen, you are not alone in stretching for yield, the whole world wants higher yield. But it has a price if un-successful in the economic fundamentals. For Canroy's that is the price of oil vs. their costs. One is comming down and the other is not.

Five Energy Companies That Spell Opportunity

With all the bubble manias paultaut mentioned I know eagerly await the "Carbon Credit" bubble mania that will pull Wall Street out of its slide.
Anyone for a carbon credit collar or a collateral carbon debt instrument.?

Five Energy Companies That Spell Opportunity

Wulff has to be empasizing "somewhere down the road" when it comes to jumping in and taking new positions in these stocks. But he should have said that instead ofleaving it open ended.

Whither Oil Prices?

$70 dollar oil without corresponeding decrease in drilling costs could be a problem. However, Rex Tillerson, of XOM clearly believes that 1 billion plus barrel finds and an enevitable rise in oil, due to a lower cost, which makes consumption grow again is feasible even if costs outstrip economic benefit for a few years.
Gives every investor pause to calculate flowing barrel costs, recycle ratios and reserve life for their current holdings. Very Interesting article. Need more like it.

Oil Price Helps Trusts Sustain Current Rate of Distribution

Regardless of PWE's reasons for selling she is having trouble raising production and the dividend payout.
An estimate by CIBC WorldMarkets places an additional 300 to 400 million a year over the next 5 years over and above the current 900 million in development drilling and exploration PWE currently expends. People are just fascinated by the dividend in this stock when more viable and profitable alternatives exist in Crescent Point Energy Trust, ARC Trust, Advantage Trust, Triliogy Trust and Daylight energy Trust where all habve raised production and payouts the last year and have strong projections going forward as well.

Most have had significant to good price appreciation over PWE on unit prices as well. this is where PWE is losing ground on total return.

The Benefits of Shifting to CNG for Fuel

Based on USG numbers, only 1.5 percent of oil is used for power generation in the US. Yes, my references also point to 20 million barrels of oil aday in the US.

Natural gas increases will have to come from unconventional sources, such as shale. That's the big one right now. But here again, the limitations are a heck of alot of water usage. Empasis on "heck of alot"
Enviro hawks will probably stop alot of unconventional gas recovery as well. Like it or not, we still need more domestically produced oil, which ironically, has the lowest enviro footprint if conventionally produced.of all the natural hydro carbons.
But the enviro nuts can't or won't talk about that.

for confirmation of water usage in shale and tight sands gas extraction see Argonne National Labs Report on same, either late last year or early this.

Oil Sands: Will the 'Greens' Cause Us to Miss Out?

Regaedless of the return on investmentn of "Bit" it is clear that the Conservative Party of Alberta pre-empted the Liberal Party of Alberta on beating them to the punch on raising Royalty Tax for the purpose of more dollars for government spending.

It is equally clear that the current Albertan regime favors oil sands production over conventional production for the simple reason of longevity of the resource and hence a long cash flow to the government. The current Albertan regime does not mind one whit about conventional gas production moving to B.C. and the former Northwest Territories and conventional oil production moving to Saskatchewan and the Arctic. In fact it encouraged it by the tax whack they gave the conventional producers and by the agreement reached with Suncor.
Conclusion: Political climate favors bit producers and bit producers will pay the higher tax due to the long life resource. Albertan population will stabilize and stop sucking every skilled worker out of the rest of Canada, thereby putting to rest the other Provinces penchant for wanting to declare a break up of the Canadian Federation, thereby assisting their conservative Brothers in Ottawa with final reason to explore the arctic and start to receive revenues in the Federal Treasurury and therby put money into the hands of the other provinces as witnessed by the record millions of land sales in B.C. and Saskatchewan. The Bit extra income will begin to satisfy the Albertans with more social services, tax holidays, more housing, more education, and more concerts in the park and a bigger dinosaur museum and probably a $5.00 per barrel whack on the Bit producers who will gladly go along with it for Enviro peace, for the Albertan Eviro Fund, where all of Alberta will buy carbon credits thus satisfying the religous based enviro jihadists, all over the world. It couldn't have been planned better, in fact it was.

Buy, buy buy more oil sands stocks. Everything is OK. QAll is right with the world.

The Long Case for Canadian Oil Sands Trust

Amen, brother.