Steven Ward

Fadel Gheit: Oil Prices to Remain Inflated but Don't Pass on Gas

I don't think it matters one whit whether Gheit is wrong or right on the financial manipulation theory. Fact is: he stated it will keep prices high for quite some time.

Demand or manipulation, oil prices will remain high.
So invest accordingly.

Is Mexico on Its Way to Becoming an Oil Importer?

The only reason the US government supported the one party state in Mexico in the past was the horrific losses in the last Mexican Civil War--1 million dead. The US wanted stability above political freedom in Mexico.
Mexican oil production and Mexican political stability are indeed linked. Mexico has long had trouble ruling itself. From her New Mexican Territories to her Californian Territories: one only needs to read the historic dispatches from the governors of those territories to see the constant complaint of lack of support from the central government. About one hundred years of complaints.
About 15 years ago the Mexican government ran a pole of its people. Various questions were asked of various age groups. One question was sovereignty over economic wel being. 80 percent of the people under 24 years of age responded that if economic vitality was only possible by becomming part of the US or a North American Union they would approve of such a union.
That pole caused the central authorities to throw a larger amount of the oil revenue into primary education and poverty reduction. It also led in part to the introduction of nitrogen recovery for Cantarell in order to produce more oil quickly which is now causing Cantarell's massive decline.
The result is that Mexican poverty has been cut in half and that the central government has made tremendous gains in getting nearly every Mexican kid through high school even the remote indigenous Indians.
But now what? The oil may have been the linch pin holding the country together given her history.

Whither Canada's Tar Sands?

The THAI CAPRI system if it works ranks right up there with nuclear fusion in terms of energy production and energy independence.
We should all hope it works and buy some Petrobank at these prices.

Whither Canada's Tar Sands?

Conventional oil drilling is still the lowest eco footprint of all forms of production. Unconventional drilling and production wants the tax credits to lower the costs under the reasoning of "energy independence". But with the unconventional production comes a very large eco footprint.
If Obama is elected it will be interesting to see what he does on the energy independence issue with lower oil prices, rising un-employment and carbon credits.
Maybe, he'll just continue to "study" offshore drilling for 4 years.

Has the Energy 'Tsunami' Been Aborted?

Jim, your $500.00 oil implies a military crisis. No nation on earth can survive that impact without reductions in the economy on a depression level. Even rRssia has found out the limits of oil power.

However, I agree with your scenario of oil going back up and way up in the 2010 to 2012 range. I agree the crunch is there.

On the alternative energy front the Democrats are playing a foolish game. Maybe they don't get it and this is sincere stupidity on their part. All the talk they have mustered up about alternative energy is all in power production, not in transportation fuels. That's the rub.
The US imports no coal and the uranium comes from dis,antled Soviet nuke weapons.
So we have a 4 trillion dollar state and Fed highway system with distribution points for transportation fuel inundating the country but Obama and McCain will save us from inported oil with tax credits for solar and wind power.
Additionally, Pickens' plan on compressed NG has to come from shale and other un-conventional sources that require alot of water to frac. If the enviro jihadists are controlling the Dems on offshore drilling wait until the Obama Admin. trots out their land based gas drilling program and all the enviro effects it brings. It will make the offshore controversey look like a Southern Baptist Sunday School Picnic.

So, no additional gas, no additional oil but all the carbon credits you can borrow on.
Now that I read my own posting I take everything back Jim, you might be right on $500.00 oil.

Maxwell's Oil Analysis

One problem with peak oil is political in the sense of increased nationalization through taxes from the English speaking countries of the world, the US, the UK, Canada and Australia.
As oil goes higher politicians seem to deal with voter anger not by expansion programs for drilling but punitive measures against those who still have reserves in the ground thus compounding the problem Peak Oil will have an artificial " Price Peak" to it based on the political policies.

Already, pressure mounts on PM Brown to tax the oils again. Australia is removing subsidies, a much milder form and one that has merit based on today's pricing, but how much longer can the Aussies wait when billions of barrels of LNG equivalent start running off their shores to an energy starved Asia at the highest gas prices in the world.
They won't wait long for an extra tax bite.
Nor will Canada and the US. Canadian Provinces of B.C. and Saskatchewan will develop oil and gas at their current tax rates then move in when development is near a certain level. The US will grab more in royalties no matter who is President. The trend is clear, Peak Oil also has a Political Price Peak, as well adding additional burden.

Megaprojects Predict Decline of Oil Production

How about some fantasy speculation: such as Brazil having made 5 more whopping discoveries adjacent to Tupi and that Petrobras' chief of exploration and drilling has calmly stated in private that 100 billion barrels are there to be extracted.

How about the Bakken where the amount extracted will get larger and larger with each techno advamcement til the point of 50 billion barrels available.

The west coast of Mauritania going all the way down to Namibia, one giant oil laden arc with many blank spots to be explored.

How about an oil arc stretching from Brazil going due North in the Atlantic all the way to the Coast of the USA,just like in Africa and in very deep water.

How about the deep GOM under the salt blnket yielding similar quantities as Brazil.

How about the Arctic, the Falklands, the Taranaki Basin of New Zealand and anywhere in the deep blue sea and, believe it or not the Himalayas, yes, the Himalayas supposedly contain billions of barrels of oil according to the geologist that discovered oil in the Indian Rajistan Desert when no one else belived him.

Well, all of it might be true and some of it is true already and some will be proven to be true. But none of it in time to help from here on to 10 to 15 years out.

It is possible that Peak Oil, while true, may not be of a lasting nature beyond 2022 to 2026.
All that man creates does not last--including shortages.
Forgive the philisophical tone.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

I still see in the Blogs people confusing power generation with transportation fuel. Mention oil shaortages and people start hollering for more solar and wind power, especially the politicians. Here is a fact: of all the 20 million barrels a day of oil consumed by this country, only 1.5 percent goes to power generation, the rest goes to transportation fuels and chemicals.
People continually want to blow sunshine up our exhaust pipes by using wind power. Gentlemen, we are investors and as such we are experts in the fields of energy as compared to the average American. Let us start acting and Blogging as such.

Please, no more solar/wind chatter etc. when the discussion is on Peak Oil. It does not apply. Mr. Brown knows this. That is why his comments on suburbia are poignant and worrying when he discussed Peak Oil--its transportation fuel and nothing more or less.

Anybody for a garden of tomatoes in the back yard?

Three Charts To Ponder: Oil Services, Oil, and the Pound

To paultaut: British Pound has been historically since 1974 a "petro currency". That maybe why they used it.however,the Pound is less and less a "petro currency" due to a declining North sea production base.

So your point is well taken,the article does not explain the use or reasoning behind the Pound's inclusion here.

A better currency is the Canadian Dollar with a CadJpy ratio. The Canadian Loonie vs. the Japanese Yen. That would have been far more appropiate here.

Energy May Not Be the Top Performing Industry

I understand that an equal weighting is necessary to show an "absolute", pure median. But if one ran a fund that way one would expect to get fired by ignoring your winners equaly with your losers If you know what I mean..

Oil Approaching Bear Market Territory

Oil down 20 percent is still OIL DOWN 20 percent, bear market indicator or not.This doesn't seem like the pause that refreshes.

The whole commodities blow up has centered around oil and the industrial metals, natural gas is still the step child of the commodities world and it isn't going anywhere without a government backed carbon credits scheme, emphasis on scheme.

A true commodities squeeze would have more "stuff" higher in price. But, yet that may come about over the next 4 to 5 years, but not the next 6 to 12 months.

Oil Sands: Will the 'Greens' Cause Us to Miss Out?

Regaedless of the return on investmentn of "Bit" it is clear that the Conservative Party of Alberta pre-empted the Liberal Party of Alberta on beating them to the punch on raising Royalty Tax for the purpose of more dollars for government spending.

It is equally clear that the current Albertan regime favors oil sands production over conventional production for the simple reason of longevity of the resource and hence a long cash flow to the government. The current Albertan regime does not mind one whit about conventional gas production moving to B.C. and the former Northwest Territories and conventional oil production moving to Saskatchewan and the Arctic. In fact it encouraged it by the tax whack they gave the conventional producers and by the agreement reached with Suncor.
Conclusion: Political climate favors bit producers and bit producers will pay the higher tax due to the long life resource. Albertan population will stabilize and stop sucking every skilled worker out of the rest of Canada, thereby putting to rest the other Provinces penchant for wanting to declare a break up of the Canadian Federation, thereby assisting their conservative Brothers in Ottawa with final reason to explore the arctic and start to receive revenues in the Federal Treasurury and therby put money into the hands of the other provinces as witnessed by the record millions of land sales in B.C. and Saskatchewan. The Bit extra income will begin to satisfy the Albertans with more social services, tax holidays, more housing, more education, and more concerts in the park and a bigger dinosaur museum and probably a $5.00 per barrel whack on the Bit producers who will gladly go along with it for Enviro peace, for the Albertan Eviro Fund, where all of Alberta will buy carbon credits thus satisfying the religous based enviro jihadists, all over the world. It couldn't have been planned better, in fact it was.

Buy, buy buy more oil sands stocks. Everything is OK. QAll is right with the world.

How Do Oil Prices Compare in Other Currencies?

After seeing this chart oil maybe the best substitute for the EURO as well. This smacks of a real demand/ supply situation and a currency crisis worldwide that will result in higher interest rates. That means CRUNCH, worldwide. China will have to stop subsidies of petroleum products sooner than it wants to do.

Did U.S. Senate Call Oil Top?

Business Week use to be a barometer of future markets in general. This is interesting, the idiots that pass as our Congress, in their lunacy, mark a market top.
A wonderful indicator, if it holds true.

John Hussman: Assessing Oil in Contango

The price rise of oil, more than doubling, in just 18 months cannot hold. Chinese hoarding for the Olympics, Iranian hoarding, speculators leaving the dollar and buying oil, all add up to something greater than demand even though demand is greater than last year and will continue to rise.

Something gives very soon in the next 6 months.