Gamestop: Negative Catalyst(s) Finally Emerging After Years Of Waiting For 52-Week High Darling [View article]
nice writeup. Although clearly an extremely early technology, I was a beta tester for "OnLive" and found it to be really impressive too. Regardless of short term, 1-2 year fundamentals, I just have a hard time seeing GME really existing as a business in maybe 6 years. Maybe this console cycle still supports physical media but it is almost certain that the next cycle will not.
Also, most of GME earnings comes from the used game business, which is under pressure regardless of the digital download dynamic.
thanks Tom, that's great news. This is an exciting story so looking forward to seeing what the permanent financing terms are so we can judge the economics of this project and what future PW projects are likely to be.
The Keystone XL Pipeline Being Delayed Until Late 2015 Is Good For Canada [View article]
thanks for the interesting article. going to be interesting to see how some of these west canada LNG projects progress too. Would be interested to hear your thoughts and I'm sure others would be as well so might be an interesting topic for an article in the future?
also, it looks to me like if Lessers it unable to finance this at the rates he mentioned and the loan jumps up to that higher rate this project will actually have negative cash flow as the interest cost will be more than the income so I very much hope he can refi this project cheaply.
thanks Tom, that was what I assumed but you're clearly an expert on this company so I wanted to be sure I wasn't missing something. thanks for sharing your insight here too, fantastic work and some very compelling write ups you have posted.
thanks! was there any guidance from HASI on the cap rates they're seeing on new projects?
it looks like this PW solar deal was probably done at 6% or even lower cap rate depending on how you think about management fees (which are currently being waived) and this was a tiny tiny project that they lowballed the sellers on. Ultimately they are going to pay 80x earnings (~$1m cost for ~$13k earnings and that is ignoring any potential management fees or depreciation) for this solar deal which seems difficult to justify financially? Unless I'm missing something here, taking on ~$1m in debt for a ~$13k earnings stream doesn't seem like a fantastic financial deal?
It will certainly be harder for PW if the cap rates of their target projects are actually in the 5-6% range (much lower than the 8%+ cap rates they initially guided to) and increased competition from better capitalized competitors is unlikely to make it easier for them.
thanks for the update. I'm not sure I follow or perhaps I am misunderstanding you but I don't see the $0.05 per share increase from this. I get ~$.01 in earnings per share from this transaction so I'm assuming you mean $0.005 per share with a little equity issued?
No Sponge Left Behind: Patient Safety Technologies [View article]
nice writeup and very conservative model, which I like.
I've met and spoken with a lot of the employees and management of this company and I think especially highly of the CEO and CFO too. In small caps so many times you're investing in the management team and these guys are very very good imo.
Will The Energy Transfer Partners/Equity 'Hot Mess' Work Out For Investors? [View article]
I wouldn't be surprised to see ETE get taken out eventually to lower ETP cost of capital. Eventually they'll need to do this to be competitive with peers for acquisitions.
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
more evidence the company is in the process of being nationalized"
"A woman answering the phone in the executive offices of the group headquarters of Wuxi Guolian, the holding company, said that a deal had already been reached for the acquisition of Suntech"
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
utopia,
I think some sort of "fraud placeholder" would need to be incorporated into any ev analysis also as the financials are very questionable. The detb holders and converts likely have some claims but the equity seems so far out of the money from here I don't see who would want to be long this from here.
I think even if Wuxi salvages this company it is very unlikely to benefit current equity holders.
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
I don't think the March 15th date is going to be that critical as I personally believe it is very likely that STP is actually in the process of having all the important/valuable assets in China nationalized right now so I'm sure the bond holders will not be happy on March 15th but either way this company is in the process of coming unraveled and it is not going to be pretty for the current equity holders from here.
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
It is my understanding that not all of the convert holders agreed to that and that their move actually violates their own indenture.
I am purely speculating but put yourself in the bond holders shoes:
STP comes to you and "asks" you to let them avoid payment for a short period of time. What are they going to do if you say no? What are your legal rights as a foreign investor against a Chinese company in China? I'm guessing the convert holders had zero choice and their value is already in question.
I have no granular insight on GSF assets other than to say that STP has already stated regarding asset sales and that the debt holders are very very clearly not going to receive all their money back which means the equity is worth $0 here.
Gamestop: Negative Catalyst(s) Finally Emerging After Years Of Waiting For 52-Week High Darling [View article]
Also, most of GME earnings comes from the used game business, which is under pressure regardless of the digital download dynamic.
*author is short GME
Power REIT's First Solar Deal [View article]
The Keystone XL Pipeline Being Delayed Until Late 2015 Is Good For Canada [View article]
Power REIT's First Solar Deal [View article]
Power REIT's First Solar Deal [View article]
Power REIT's First Solar Deal [View article]
it looks like this PW solar deal was probably done at 6% or even lower cap rate depending on how you think about management fees (which are currently being waived) and this was a tiny tiny project that they lowballed the sellers on. Ultimately they are going to pay 80x earnings (~$1m cost for ~$13k earnings and that is ignoring any potential management fees or depreciation) for this solar deal which seems difficult to justify financially? Unless I'm missing something here, taking on ~$1m in debt for a ~$13k earnings stream doesn't seem like a fantastic financial deal?
It will certainly be harder for PW if the cap rates of their target projects are actually in the 5-6% range (much lower than the 8%+ cap rates they initially guided to) and increased competition from better capitalized competitors is unlikely to make it easier for them.
Power REIT's First Solar Deal [View article]
No Sponge Left Behind: Patient Safety Technologies [View article]
I've met and spoken with a lot of the employees and management of this company and I think especially highly of the CEO and CFO too. In small caps so many times you're investing in the management team and these guys are very very good imo.
Will The Energy Transfer Partners/Equity 'Hot Mess' Work Out For Investors? [View article]
Suntech Responds to NYSE Inquiries Related to Unusual Trading [View article]
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
http://bloom.bg/Z0jhx1
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
"A woman answering the phone in the executive offices of the group headquarters of Wuxi Guolian, the holding company, said that a deal had already been reached for the acquisition of Suntech"
http://nyti.ms/10H0eLA
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
I think some sort of "fraud placeholder" would need to be incorporated into any ev analysis also as the financials are very questionable. The detb holders and converts likely have some claims but the equity seems so far out of the money from here I don't see who would want to be long this from here.
I think even if Wuxi salvages this company it is very unlikely to benefit current equity holders.
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
Suntech Power May Already Be In Bankruptcy [View article]
I am purely speculating but put yourself in the bond holders shoes:
STP comes to you and "asks" you to let them avoid payment for a short period of time. What are they going to do if you say no? What are your legal rights as a foreign investor against a Chinese company in China? I'm guessing the convert holders had zero choice and their value is already in question.
I have no granular insight on GSF assets other than to say that STP has already stated regarding asset sales and that the debt holders are very very clearly not going to receive all their money back which means the equity is worth $0 here.