STLPlace

Autodesk Proceeding with Acquisitions

Some discussion on Moldflow acquisition.

messages.finance.yahoo...

It appears ADSK overpaid for MFLO, to say the least.

Tough Times in Store for China Mobile

I put up disclosure when submitting article but it did not show up. Anyway I sold my CHL shares this past week.

CHL probably is still the best China telecom/wireless play, but as I said it faces two problems: the economy and the immature 3g standard. More update on the TDMA last week: CHL decided to rent the TDMA network from its parent (China Mobile Group). This is typical, just like China Mobile Group gave 500 M Yuan to China Telecom a short while ago. In other words, I am not too worried about the Capex of CHL, as its parent will likely to foot the TDMA bill, and also CHL has done aggressive depreciation on its GSM networks. But all this did not solve the key problem for CHL: how to win the 3G war in China using TDMA?

CHA maybe good for a trade, but it also has its share of problem. Note CHA was the parent of China Mobile 10 years ago, it got a lot legacy issues, now it got the weakest network (CDMA) from China Unicom. I would wait and see how the Sky wing campaign turns out.

On Jan 08 08:27 AM ArtfulDodger wrote:

> Who cares about disclosure? Especially when authors don't tell you
> where they bought in?
>
> I'd rather know the author's conclusion? Would he buy CHA or not?

>
>
> A very weak article!

New Technology Makes Natural Gas a Viable Replacement for Oil

It seems to me Pickens plan did not get too much attention.

One reason I suspect is his past association with Swift boat thing made him perceived not as an impartial person on this matter. Not to mention his personal economy interest in Wind and other enerfy stock holding in his hedge fund.

Oil Industry: Farewell, Good Old Days

Maybe it's a good time for XOM to snap up CHK? After all, it's hard for XOM to get more oil from those national oil companies.

Chinese Government Gives China Mobile Revenues to China Telecom

To clarify some doubts regarding "why this matters to CHL shareholders".

Suppose a grandfather wanted give $500 to his elder son, but he does not have any money. So he asked younger son for $500. According to the tribal tradition, son can not say no to father. So the younger son agreed, but he does not have any money either. He knows his son (CHL) has $500 at bank. So he asked CHL...

Crocs: Bloated Inventory Caused Stock Slide

I believe the inventory is up $50 m or so (not $190 m) from end of Q3 2007.

That being said, the shorts are taking every opportunity to take it down and make a killing...

RIM Shouldn't Be Affected by Financial Sector Weakness

CitiGroup flip flipped on this one. See my post

www.stlplace.com/2008/.../

Or this barron's blog:
blogs.barrons.com/stoc.../

Research in Motion (RIMM) faces a prospective 25% reduction in market value if the U.S. slides into recession, says Citigroup. RIMM shares, already nearly 40% off the highs reached last fall, could drop to as low as $63 if the U.S. economy does, in fact, fall into recession, and the consequences radiate to the rest of the global economy.

Are they the same guy at Citi ???

Don't Overlook Amazon's Web Services Business

All these are good except one problem: its service revenue (For 2007, Amazon’s other revenue was $326 million) is still insignificant compared to retail revenue.

Not a himalaya to climb, but still a long way to go...

Xinyuan Real Estate IPO Analysis: Poised for a Strong 2008

I usually like Bill's post, especially his analysis portion. But for this one, I think it is difficult to predict. The Chinese real estate is highly regulated, and the goverment is keen not to repeat what happened in the US housing market. In the short term, I think things will be tough for EJ and XIN.

I did some homework on Vanke, China No. 1 home builder.

www.stlplace.com/2007/.../

Longtop Financial: Benefiting from China Banking Growth

I also did some homework on this one:

www.stlplace.com/2007/.../

China's Latest Financial Coup: Buy 'H' Shares

I think at this stage, this H share move won't have much effect. The minimum balance is HKD 100,000, which is not small change for most Chinese.

I discussed this a bit at my blog:

www.stlplace.com/2007/.../

I think for the long term, Chinese investors will follow what they did in A shares lately: hand their money to fund managers, and let professonals hand their money.

By the way, why the mistrust on Chinese banks? I can understand the frustration of the "long waiting line", but not aware of mistrust.

Wall Street Loves WuXi's Story

I like its story too.

www.stlplace.com/2007/.../

On the risk side, it appears they derived more than 20% revenue from Vertex Pharmaceuticals 1H 2007, and the drug is going through FDA "Phase 3 clinical trials for this drug candidate in the fourth quarter of 2007. If the FDA does not approve this candidate or if its development is delayed, Vertex may terminate or significantly reduce its orders with us."

E-House Holdings IPO Offers Investors Risks, Rewards

I don't think this will be the next HMIN, due to couple reasons:

1) EJ derives main revenue from new home sales, in a booming market like this, the developers don't need EJ to help them to sell; on the other hand, if market takes a turn, that won't help EJ either.

2) Competition is heating up. It does not take too much money to start a broker business.

I also listed more details in my own blog:

www.stlplace.com/2007/.../

That being said, short term, the stock could go up, note I am not an expert on predicting short term trend.

Crocs: Tripping on Its Own Brand

Not sure if the sales/cash flow (operating?) is a good metrics. Look at Under Armour, they got a negative cash flow number if you use that ratio.

Acorn International: Post IPO Pullback Offers Good Entry Point

Zack,
I have to disagree with you on this. ATV is not another FMCN. Shopping on TV is a good idea but
it is not a killer app. I believe ATV is primary selling mobile phones.

I talked a little about ATV in my blog:
www.stlplace.com/2007/.../