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Stock Market Mike

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  • Risk Reward Shows Market In The Toilet For 2015 [View article]
    I think you have to identify scenarios and outcomes.

    -Is there a war with Russia? They supply or withhold so much oil, if WW3 breaks out we'll surely be seeing $120-140/barrel, conservatively.

    -No war? Ok then... it benefits the Saudis to drive prices down, so that they might scoop up assets on the cheap for their Sovereign wealth fund. If they have their way, we'll see $30/barrel for sure. A price that low also guarantees a snapback rally, as the world's oil supply will be severely impacted.

    -They stop putting pressure on prices, and actually raised them a bit? Shucks. Oil recovers to $55-70, offshore/fracking supply surges again as companies have debt payments to make, so they must pump... and the price stays low for years, as demand continues to come in lower than expected.

    Jan 29, 2015. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Reward Shows Market In The Toilet For 2015 [View article]
    My point of view is different than many other people's. Mine is that what holds the market up is 1) People buying at the wrong times (highs rather than lows), 2) Automatic investments (most often in mutual funds), 3) People believing the market must always go up. (Sometimes even the analysts and fund managers.)

    The danger here lies in so many analysts being semi bearish. If too many become really bearish, the market turns for a while. It is all based on sentiment, after all. If nobody thinks it's going up, everyone starts selling and shorting. The stock market is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, except that you're trying to guess what a lot of other people are going to do next.

    Jan 29, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Reward Shows Market In The Toilet For 2015 [View article]
    Doubt it. $200 oil will put solar panel ROI at barely 6-8 years. It'd make sense to take out loans and become your own utility, at that point.

    I do agree that if we see $30 oil, so much supply will dry up that it will overshoot on the snap back. The worst thing for oil companies would be if it rose to $65-70... I think it could actually hold steady at those levels for quite a few years, since new demand would be matched by more supply, from frackers and offshore drillers and Russians and whoever else needs to pump more.

    Jan 29, 2015. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Reward Shows Market In The Toilet For 2015 [View article]
    Do you really want to be buying oil right now? That's where many of the 52wk lows are. Buy day after day, there's new lows to enjoy!

    I'm nibbling, but I expect to see red before green.

    Jan 29, 2015. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WiLAN makes new lows due to Q1 guidance [View news story]
    It's also only a new low on the USD side. I bought TSE:WIN shares at $3.30. Not my best investment, but after this decline and dividends I'm still ahead. ($3.55 share price right now.)

    Sure beats CAD Cash. Our currency is losing value by the day.

    Jan 29, 2015. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The World's Largest Net Lease REIT Worth? [View article]
    I think he's sane, unlike those of us holding ARCP shares. :P

    Still got mine, and bought more on the dips into the $7's.

    Jan 29, 2015. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The World's Largest Net Lease REIT Worth? [View article]
    After reading the barrage of articles coming out of dozens of no-name authors, rehashing the news of the day, I'm beginning to feel the same way.

    Another good one, Brad!

    Jan 29, 2015. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7.6%; Street applauds iPhone sales, China growth [View news story]
    I'm inclined to agree. As a computer tech and computer enthusiast, I'm aware of a lot of products, and read quite a few reviews. There's many products out there that excite me, but Apple stuff usually doesn't. Their products are good, but not great, and it's only the great ones that excite me since I've seen so many.

    Aside from Apple's phenomenal iOS ecosystem, there is always another product out there with better specs, better build quality, more useful features, and a better price. Those products often also have the designer's ear, so if you complain about any flaws, they will get fixed in the next version. But if you mention that product to anyone, I guarantee you that they will not have heard about it. They will definitely have heard of the newest Apple device, though.

    So as a tech savvy individual, take yourself out of the picture. Now think as a shareholder. Which company do you want to hold shares in - the one that produces phenomenal products that nobody knows about, or the one that has a cult following "I don't know what their next product is, or how much it costs, but I'll buy it anyway!" and hooks people in emotionally?

    Apple is a great investment.

    Jan 28, 2015. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MU, NVDA, STX, WDC hit hard by MSFT [View news story]
    Businesses want long support cycles and less user retraining. It's no surprise that with Windows 10 predicted to be better than Windows 8, Windows 8 sales would dry up close to launch. The boost from WinXP support ending last year makes it look even worse. With Microsoft's new Launch-An-OS-Every-Oth... plan, investors will have many of these cycles to look forward to, since the business PC refresh cycle will not match up with the Windows launch cycle.

    Jan 27, 2015. 01:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Catalysts For TowerJazz [View article]
    Same experience as Manoj. I've only had good success with LEAPS (usually deep ITM, sometimes just OTM) and short term puts. (Usually around earnings release dates.)

    Market is frothy/jittery, so the puts are sometimes in your favour.

    Jan 25, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Is Talking With Lenders As It Faces A Liquidity Crisis [View article]
    Adec - Banks are in the business of lending money, and getting paid interest. That's their primary business, although many do branch out a bit from there.

    You're asking whether a bank wants to seize control of an asset during the middle of a bear market, where they won't be able to unload it for an adequate return, raising their default rate and decreasing the overall interest that they receive?

    PWE can still make their interest payments. I think maybe you're not considering the business that banks are in. As a human being, let me ask you this - do you want to bash your head against a wall? Banks generally don't.

    Jan 25, 2015. 12:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chatham Rings Up A 25% Dividend Boost [View article]
    LQ has quite a few hotels in the impacted areas. They're not a REIT. Probably a very good short target if lodging rates start turning the other way.

    Jan 23, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Is The Preferred The Way To Go? [View article]
    Just wanted to mention that most institutional ownership includes brokerages that hold shares on their clients' behalfs. (*behalves?) AKA retail investors that didn't buy directly from the company. (Most of them, I'd think.)

    Jan 23, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore: Fleet Status As Of January 22 And Commentary [View article]
    Their debt is some of the most distressed in the entire offshore drilling sector. Bond market is saying that old assets + poor financial performance + cost to acquire replacements = bad combination.

    I think investing in them would be speculation at this point... even buying their bonds.


    Jan 23, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Sensitivity Analysis [View article]
    Just like gold miners, the stocks turn before the price of the commodity does.

    I'm watching NADL with curiosity. $1.10 to $1.70...

    Jan 23, 2015. 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment