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Stock Market Mike

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  • Here's What The Buy Side Expects From Advanced Micro Devices Thursday [View article]
    Are they in the money? Do you have enough cash/margin to take on that many shares?

    All that I'm playing AMD with is LEAPs... anything too close has the effect of burning you with volatility. The potential gains are huge, but short term more often than not you don't end up with gains. More often than not you end up with a partial or 100% loss, since with AMD even good results can provide a 20% decline in share price...

    I'd rather give myself another 3-7 quarters for the story to play out. I'm not playing for an earnings pop - I'm playing for the market to realize (over several quarters) that this turn-around story is a rapid growth story - and for that to happen, I actually have to wait for the rapid growth. (Micro-servers and such.) 2016 LEAPs seem like the best bet to me. As such, I am long hundreds of them at various strikes (Mostly low like $2 and $3), and hold many thousands of shares.

    Good luck out there. I'm *hoping* to win a few cheeseburgers tomorrow, but I'm not betting on it - I've at least got a few more quarters for this to play out.

    -Mike
    Apr 17 02:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel beats by $0.01, revenues in line [View news story]
    What - having to spend about $3b per year just to offset dilution offends you? That's only ~$0.60/share.

    (Yes, that was tongue in cheek.)

    But it could be worse. Just look at Micron. Electric Phred summed it up nicely in one of his articles - nearly $3 in dilution in one year, on a lower stock price.

    -Mike
    Apr 16 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday Will Likely Center Around PCs For AMD [View article]
    Intel is bringing the fight to AMD with BayTrail... I see lots of cheap $350-450 PCs that include it. AMD better counter with something cost competitive, or they'll soon hemorrhage more CPU market share.

    I just picked up an AM1 system for an old/dying billing station. Runs ancient software that requires a parallel port dongle - so glad to see there's a board that has one!

    http://bit.ly/1kziWAe

    The whole system (CPU/Motherboard/RAM/C... will cost under $300.

    -Mike
    Apr 16 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    Agreed. I feel that should be an option for every form of media - it's a clear way to communicate displeasure that doesn't require vastly more customer service agents on the part of the service provider.

    If I could take back my revenue when watching a TV show (Ex: On Netflix), some TV execs might say "Woah, hold on, that episode had 16% of people withhold revenue rather than the normal 1.2%. What went wrong there? It clearly didn't please viewers."

    I'm all for empowering the readership with more feedback tools, such as withholding your penny.

    -Mike
    Apr 16 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax falls 14% ahead of one-day Google Glass sale [View news story]
    People driving Ferraris still have to think about Gas. People driving a Tesla don't. :P

    -Mike
    Apr 16 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel beats by $0.01, revenues in line [View news story]
    If I had to guess - employee stock options. They've been silent killers for both QCOM and INTC.
    Apr 15 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Earnings: What Goes Up Usually Comes Down [View article]
    I have no idea which way INTC will bounce after earnings. This quarter could be exceptional, due to MSFT pushing millions of WinXP users to upgrade - or maybe not.

    I do find it strange that there's a lot of AMD options activity for this week, when AMD announces earnings after the close. That means they capture the INTC earnings release, but not the AMD one? Bizarre. Not sure what to think of that. AMD and INTC stock do generally move in tandem.

    -Mike
    Apr 15 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax falls 14% ahead of one-day Google Glass sale [View news story]
    They need a *strong* app ecosystem to sell $1500 glasses like hotcakes. If they do it poorly, some other company like Apple would come along and do it better. They have to take and hold the #1 spot. This can't be like Android, where it benefits other companies (Samsung, Microsoft) more than Google.

    I don't think Google will drop the project. That's more of a Microsoft line of thinking.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 10:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Is Now The Time To Buy The Dips? [View article]
    RS: I still think you need to diversify it a bit more. Maybe spice it up with a REIT or two, or high yield stock like SDRL. Dividend champions?... no. But today's newcomer could be tomorrow's winner. If you use sound strategies like stop-limits, then capital is only at risk if you blunder your entry point.

    ARCP and SDRL are both at the lower ends of their trading ranges right now. (though ARCP is exhibiting a lot of weakness) Very high dividends. Interest rate fears appear overblown for now, yet were the primary causes for the declines...

    I buy SDRL at $33, if it rises I get stopped out in the $34-35 range. Then I repeat... cost base now $1.50 lower. If it gets away on me, oh well.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Is Now The Time To Buy The Dips? [View article]
    "Problem is that people have been waiting for the bear since 2011. Even when it eventually arrives, they will not be able to buy cheaply enough to make up for the lost opportunities nor make up for the principal reduction if they had to eat into it in the absence of dividends. They need to stay invested, but cautious."

    Nonsense. Anyone that knows basic math knows that isn't true.

    It might not be true if you're like me - buy, then get stop-limits in place once it rises to guarantee a profit - but for someone holding "forever", a 25% drop in stock price during the next bear market on a 3% dividend stock means you can wait 8 years for that bear market to manifest before scooping shares of the company. Actually, longer - many credit unions offer perks like 2% chequing accounts or redeemable terms. I don't even shoot for companies with dividends in that range, as there's safer places to park money that are pretty close.

    DGI investors talk a lot about the power of compounding... I'm a firm believer in that. But I don't believe just in compounding dividends. Catchphrases like 'buy the dips and sell the rips' have merit. So when you flub the entry point at $24 and get a 5% yield, and I nail it at $20 and get a 6% yield, how does that compound?

    $1,000.00 - $1,000.00
    $1,050.00 - $1,060.00
    $1,102.50 - $1,123.60
    $1,157.63 - $1,191.02
    $1,215.51 - $1,262.48
    $1,276.28 - $1,338.23
    $1,340.10 - $1,418.52
    $1,407.10 - $1,503.63
    $1,477.46 - $1,593.85
    $1,551.33 - $1,689.48
    $1,628.89 - $1,790.85

    We both eventually sell at $28, providing you an additional gain of $167, and me $400. In ten years the difference was around $400 on initial capital of $1000.

    Although in reality the difference is larger than that. For a long time the stock floated around at a lower price and was "underwater" - in my case I wanted to own the stock just as much as the DGI investor, but got in at the lower end of its 10-15% trading range. I got stopped out repeatedly and immediately rebought after the next 5-10% dip at what appeared to be support levels, pocketing an additional 30% in the first year. Now the chart looks like this:

    $1,000.00 - $1,000.00
    $1,050.00 - $1,360.00
    $1,102.50 - $1,441.60
    $1,157.63 - $1,528.10
    $1,215.51 - $1,619.78
    $1,276.28 - $1,716.97
    $1,340.10 - $1,819.99
    $1,407.10 - $1,929.19
    $1,477.46 - $2,044.94
    $1,551.33 - $2,167.63
    $1,628.89 - $2,297.69

    There's a reason I focus heavily on good entry points.. and then sound and methodical strategies, like keeping those stop-limits in place. You *must* preserve capital, or else you can't take advantage of the next opportunity. Its especially important as we near the next bear market. Anyone that got stopped out in 2007/2008 had the opportunity to rebuy at *far lower* prices - many times more shares. Some companies dropped 50%, others 80 or 90%. Those that were brave in those fearful times have done very well in the years since.

    But without capital available they would not have. ;)

    -Mike


    For anyone curious, I've been buying DFT and SDRL and JNUG and keep getting stopped out of them. Compounding nicely. Nearly pays for one of my BIG options blunders in March.
    Apr 14 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors - The Story Just Keeps Getting Worse [View article]
    @E Nuff Sed:

    Assuming the market doesn't crash in the meantime, GM stock very well may hit and pass $55.

    But that leaves me wondering how high F will be, or TM.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding High On AeroGrow [View article]
    My $4.60 limit order triggered. Stop-limit now in place. Hope we get a rebound and I get to hold the shares.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra-Low-Risk Retirement Strategy For Folks Who've Saved $1 Million [View article]
    I think you both have the right mindsets and strategies for yourselves. You both have the right goals.

    I learned a long time ago that different people have different brain chemistries, desires, and mindsets. Some people are natural explorers, and get a thrill from climbing a mountain, seeing a beautiful sunset, and going sailing. It fulfils them. And some people are collectors - their pleasure is having a bunch of 60's cars, or every generation of computer or hard drive going back 30 years, or a pile of money that they don't actually do anything with. (But they COULD - which is enough to create anticipation and pleasure chemicals in their brains. The explorer actually has to go do something to derive the same pleasure.)

    I lean towards being a collector rather than an explorer. But there are many other mindsets out there than just those two! Figure out what fulfils you, and then plan so that you can reach your goals. There is no 'right' - only what is 'right' for you!

    -Mike
    Apr 14 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Part 2: New Jackup Contracts Promise Revenue Growth And Improve Forward Earnings Visibility [View article]
    Looks like the double bottom could be in for SDRL, indicating upside from here.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    LGF, however, is flatlining on a rather up day. Hmm...

    I am not sure what SDRL's price will be next month, or next year, but I strongly suspect it will be higher by next decade. I think the fear will slowly pass and their strategy will become more clear as they execute it. In the meantime... dividends!

    I've got a position only slightly larger than your own, but I bought a few long-dated calls to keep open the option of buying more at today's prices. (Or technically at just under $34) I will either sell those on a rise, morph them to a bull call spread, or use them to purchase shares sometime in the future.

    Or worse case, they expire worthless.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    Most people that don't like options don't know what they're missing. Options are the only way to manage risk that doesn't incur huge taxbills by selling off constantly. Options are quite poorly understood, as evidenced by the terrible track record that most people have when they try to use them. Perhaps if there were more insightful articles with deeper analysis and proper discussion of strategies, you might actually be interested?

    As with anything, an analysis (or options strategy) can be thorough and insightful or shallow and worthless...

    -Mike
    Apr 14 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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