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  • Ocean Rig UDW Announced The Partial Exchange Of The Loan Consented To Dryships [View article]
    I appreciate overhangs like this. There's a very high probability that it will eventually go away. In the meantime, all the better to DRIP with.

    -Mike
    May 24, 2015. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom line pressured at Wal-Mart in Q1 [View news story]
    I think it's quite likely. I know quite a few people that shop more at Costco than Walmart. But it could also be debt overhang lag time.

    When you get a job after not having one for a while, you probably have debt to pay back, due to borrowing from friends or the bank? When you save at the pump, you pay back your debts first and try to build up a buffer in case your car or dishwasher or something else breaks down.

    ... and for the next time you go jobless.

    So at minimum wage (since most of these new jobs pushing us down past 5.4% unemployment are part-time low wage positions), and factoring in the cost of living, how long will it take to save up $3000+?

    A year? Two?

    There will be lag time before "gas savings" kick in. In the meantime, the wealthy that were into commodities a bit too much will be spending far less due to their oil stocks being in the toilet. But they probably weren't Walmart customers anyway.

    -Mike
    May 24, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.6% Dividend REIT New York Mortgage Trust Is Banking On Credit Investments, Will That Work? [View article]
    Don't forget your solar panels, rechargeable batteries and radio. Gotta have some music!

    -Mike
    May 23, 2015. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Krispy Kreme's Comeback Continues [View article]
    Thanks for the overview and history!

    I traded KKD at one point. They interested me, but I haven't kept up on them. I didn't realize how much of their growth was overseas.

    I'll keep them on my watchlist for when the price is right.

    -Mike
    May 23, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reports: Intel launching Skylake in late summer, subsidy for Rockchip CPUs [View news story]
    Correct. That should say Skylake rather than Broadwell... Broadwell was the shrink that improved power efficiency, Skylake is the redesign. Tick tock.

    -Mike
    May 22, 2015. 08:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax +5.5%; Samsung reportedly upping driver orders [View news story]
    Time for another run?

    -Mike
    May 22, 2015. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil stocks slide as Eletrobras cut to junk by Moody’s [View news story]
    Keep in mind that we get the corporate slant rather than the socialist one. The good news coming from Brazil isn't widely publicized. She has more of the popular vote than Obama, and twice as much as Harper in Canada. (He's neared a 25% approval rating many times - but we have a flawed First-past-the-post voting system, rather than something proportional...)

    All the negative media (plus them being demonic socialists rather than holy capitalists) leads to many investors and funds desiring not to have any exposure to that country. That leads to a weaker currency due to less demand, raising import prices - that leads to high inflation. High inflation is not so desirable, especially with a rapidly weakening currency, so more investors stay away... currency weakens further... do you see the loop? It's pretty visible in the charts:

    http://yhoo.it/1LtDWnX;c=

    When these snowballs start rolling downhill, the only correct course of action is to get out of the way. I believe we may be nearing a turning point though. Even though Americans still don't like them and consider it a place to be avoided, the Chinese smell opportunity:

    http://bit.ly/1AjUCgM

    Brazil has resources. They'll be to China what Canada is to the USA. Heavy investments over the next few years will slow the currency slide and stabilize things a bit. Once more stable, other investors will come around, inflation will decline, and then eventually a bull market will ensue. Or maybe the bull market will ensue first - oil stocks turned around well before oil jumped from $44 to $60, as did the US market in 2009 before the recession ended. Seems like investors sniff out what's going to happen at least 6 months in advance.

    Just my opinion.

    -Mike
    May 22, 2015. 01:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Based On Cash Flows [View article]
    This article is great! Very detailed and well reasoned. The only flaw that I can see is that those growth rates depend on them having great products, and I'm not so confident of that. The author is trusting blindly that management and the engineers will prevail, without any analysis of that. That's a bit too much blind faith for me. I primarily examine the upcoming tech when investing in tech companies... as tech companies often come and go.

    Samsung has been piling money into R&D for years to get the first mover advantage. They made it to 3D NAND a year or more ahead of their competition, and as such have been able to charge very high prices. Their 850 Pro SSDs have gone for nearly $1/GB (250GB for $250) at a time when competitors were selling SSDs 250GB SSDs for $80-140. Crucial (Micron) SSDs were on the low end of that range, which brings me to another point... and oldbeachlvr's post.

    Early indications are that the Intel/Micron 3D NAND is going to be quite good... possibly the lowest cost to produce of the bunch, and it will take a while for their competition to catch up. It is extremely probable that it will be the highest density and most reliable. Intel/Micron planar NAND already has an impressively low cost, though investors don't notice because the NAND gets sold so cheaply. (Big AAPL contracts at a discount, consumer SSDs priced extremely aggressively, etc..) On the other side of the JV Intel has been gobbling up enterprise marketshare, in part due to their NAND's reliability. That's a winning combination - reliable and cheap. Just a few quarters ago, around when SNDK's troubles started, I saw Crucial MX100 256GB SSDs going for $79.99 on sale. It did not affect Micron's margins negatively in any significant way... they kept beating on earnings. Granted, consumer isn't a huge part of their revenue - but they are very popular value SSDs that are gaining in popularity.

    Price wise, the new Intel stuff appears to have a disruptively low cost. They said they expect it to scale to 10TB+; 10TB in a 2.5" SSD indicates a phenomenal density improvement, as you'd be hard pressed to pack more than $1000 of NAND into that form factor. I doubt they will release a 10TB $1200 SSD, though - Intel seems to be aiming for some very high margins. (60%+) They will obviously milk enterprise just like how Samsung is currently milking consumers with their 850 PROs. But a 1TB SSD that costs ~$100 to produce will have great margins, whatever they decide to sell it for...

    This article provides some estimates - but Intel is the most likely company to get 64 layer 3D NAND figured out, so the density can potentially double from here. More if they do it on a smaller process.
    http://bit.ly/1F0TdtV

    Just my opinion based on all the bits that I have cobbled together from reading news blurbs, SA articles, conference transcripts, and as much info as possible about their upcoming technology. If SNDK does well, I think Micron will do better operationally. If SNDK doesn't do well, it will probably be because of Micron/Intel.

    -Mike
    May 22, 2015. 02:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Performance To Continue For Ocean Rig [View article]
    Good deal for ORIG, bad deal for DRYS. They lose the ~10% dividend on 4.4 million shares - that's got to cost them more than the interest.

    -Mike
    May 21, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China offers Petrobras $7B in financing as part of investment plan for Brazil [View news story]
    Many have been or are being educated in prestigious US institutions. The next generation is coming to have the same beliefs as American capitalists/corporatists.

    Wouldn't be surprised if they were as close of an ally as Britain a few decades from now. Might turn out different, but I won't be shocked if they turn into a huge ally. They're certainly mirroring USA moves.

    -Mike
    May 20, 2015. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean joins Halliburton in BP deal settling Deepwater Horizon claims [View news story]
    $125m in legal fees? That might not be all of it, and it's for only one of the companies involved.

    Lawyers probably made $500m+ off the incident? Ridiculous!

    -Mike
    May 20, 2015. 08:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules sells four rigs as Gulf of Mexico drilling work fades [View news story]
    Contacted IR - they were sold for scrap to a company in Texas.

    -Mike
    May 20, 2015. 02:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules sells four rigs as Gulf of Mexico drilling work fades [View news story]
    No.

    If they were UDW, I'd wonder about AWLCF. They cut their ~90% payout dividend down to half, and are building up capital for some reason. Last big oil crash, AWLCF got some old Transocean rigs on the cheap. (Practically free after financing) - then they upgraded them for harsh north sea work.

    -Mike
    May 20, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline stocks rattled by oil supply data [View news story]
    When Hynix had a fire and some of their memory production was disrupted... their share price rose, due to the decreased market capacity causing prices to rise.

    Opposite is true here. Bring too much capacity online... shoot yourself in the foot. Just look at VALE. They're doing a good job driving iron ore prices down with record production levels.

    -Mike
    May 20, 2015. 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax +5.5%; Rosenblatt upgrades, sees M&A potential for LCoS [View news story]
    Huge dividend (for this market), multiple growth sectors, a possible takeout target, and earnings growing fast enough to actually offset currency headwinds. What's not to like?

    The volatility I suppose, though a floor seems to have been put in, in the high $5's.

    -Mike
    May 20, 2015. 11:55 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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