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  • BofA's 10 catalyst picks for Q2 include Actavis as a buy, Tesla as a sell [View news story]
    Why build a car? Why not chuck a few tin cans together and build a rocket? Then you can go live on the moon.

    -Mike
    Apr 1, 2015. 09:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I to construct storage tanks in Venezuela [View news story]
    They're also up 50% over the past two months. Whether you're smiling all depends on where you got in.

    -Mike
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Canadian REIT That Says Buy Me [View article]
    Hey Brad, isn't the dividend yield 5.9%? Those are CAD dividends, correct? They have to be priced against the stock in CAD, or converted back to USD to estimate the yield?

    -Mike
    Mar 31, 2015. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Canadian REIT That Says Buy Me [View article]
    That's not specific to Canadian REITs. I don't think any REITs pay qualified dividends? Part of the reason that they don't have to pay tax is they pay out 90/100% (US/CA) of their taxable income to shareholders, which then pay tax. They use all sorts of legal trickery to drop that taxable income - acquisitions/depreciation and whatnot - which leads to them having low or no income, plus dividends that are partly ROC.

    That means that even though your REIT pays you interest or regular income, it may still be partly tax shielded by ROC / ACB adjustments. (At least until you sell.)

    -Mike
    Mar 31, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoDaddy Racing To An IPO [View article]
    I am wondering how they will ever make money if they are losing so much money with their not-so-aggressive pricing?

    Quite often the same services can be had elsewhere for about 1/3rd the price.

    Webhosting is a fierce landscape, and is also a commodity. Not sure it's wise to invest in that.

    -Mike
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale should sell stake in Carajas iron ore mine, analyst says [View news story]
    Yes, sell low so that our clients can gobble up a lucrative stake! Please, give us the crown jewels!

    -Mike
    Mar 27, 2015. 06:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel, Micron launch 3D NAND line, promise cost/capacity edge (updated) [View news story]
    PCB failure rate... ~0.5 to 1% per year in humid environments? (Requires fact checking.)

    Just something to keep in mind. The NAND may not die, and the controller may not overheat, but any piece of electronics can fail. Don't place too much faith in it lasting 20 years with light usage.

    -Mike
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel, Micron launch 3D NAND line, promise cost/capacity edge (updated) [View news story]
    Well, if those 48GB chips cost $4-8 to make, they could have a very tidy profit margin on 960GB SSDs sold for just $250. Disruptive cost and capacity improvement, indeed!

    I suspect initially they will price them much higher and target the enterprise market, where density, power consumption, and performance can matter a lot.

    Wonder if Intel/Micron will produce a ~48GB high performance eMMC solution? Intel is very interested in the Tablet/Smartphone markets.

    -Mike
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto CEO rejects call for industry to cap iron ore output [View news story]
    Price fixing is not allowed. Managing supply to meet demand is absolutely allowed. That's part of capitalism and the free market. Supply too low, prices go up. Competitors come in - supply too high, prices go down. Competitors bust - supply too low, prices go up. Trying to keep supply and demand a bit more in balance decreases the number of boom and bust cycles.

    Memory companies manage their supply all the time, attempting to keep supply and demand in balance. If demand starts to sag, they cut back rather than drop prices. But they are in a constant state of dropping the price of their product as they advance to new nodes. That's fine.

    Oil companies also cut back when it doesn't make sense to explore, and expand when it does, thus also managing supply and demand.

    What isn't fine is waking up to find out that COP, CVX, XOM, and RDS.B decided that no barrels of oil will leave their grip under $70. Oil would be $70/barrel immediately, but all sorts of government officials would come a knockin'.

    -Mike
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital higher after upgrade [View news story]
    Brad is not a trader. He wishes he had sold before the drop, like some of his readers. He got out at $9.47. He then correctly estimated the reduced EPS levels and predicted a dividend suspension and cut.

    He's a bit like the great investors (Buffet, etc.) - he can tell you what to expect about the company, but not how to play the stock. He's more of a weighing than voting kinda guy.

    -Mike
    Mar 25, 2015. 12:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Day's biggest news: Fed sharply cuts "normal" unemployment rate [View news story]
    Nobody wants deflation or dis-inflation. Not one central bank. The whole world (or at least most of the people in power positions) don't want it. They know it's bad. Nobody likes selling a home for $200k that they bought for $300k. Even if food prices drop by 1/2, people will still feel bad. But if you sell it for $310k 10 years later, that's a win, right? Well, it is to the less financially inclined.

    And that's what it comes down to - for the economy to work, regular people have to think it's working okay, and prices will rise over time, and that buying a house is not a lousy investment. They're already facing headwinds like the decline of the boomers (not as many new households), changing demographics (millennials living with parents into their 30's, being quite happy to rent a small apartment as long as they have their laptop, smartphone, game console, etc.), and younger people having a tougher time finding employment. (Many businesses would rather hire someone 50+; "They work harder.")

    http://1.usa.gov/1D6gqZI

    It's interesting times. Hiking rates would just be pouring fuel on the dis-inflation fire.

    On the other hand, if anyone came out in 2009 and said "Rates will likely by sub-2% for the next decade or more.", that would encourage ALL SORTS of really bad behaviour. Bubbles galore. Not to mention without this dove hawk bantering, insurance company and bank spreads would've likely already compressed into oblivion, putting them in a dangerous position.

    Recognize it for what it is. Rates won't soar overnight. The fed is doing a good job keeping every industry afloat - even ones at polar opposites, like mREITs vs Banks/Insurers. They're doing a good job preventing another big bust like 2008.

    All we need is for oil to recover a bit into the 60's and mass oil bankruptcies will be off the table too. Then everything will just be groovy. (Oil patch workers will make a little less, though - more in-line with wages from other industries.)

    -Mike
    Mar 18, 2015. 06:25 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Just Bought A High-Quality REIT With A Sound Margin Of Safety [View article]
    I'm not aware of any equity REITs with a yield that high? Well, except ARCP - oh wait.

    -Mike
    Mar 16, 2015. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West - Lenders Drive A Hard Bargain [View article]
    There is a good price for every stock. But that price might be $0.

    Buying at $10 you can suffer a 90% loss, buying at $1 you can also suffer a 90% loss.

    But I think at this price, the odds are getting more reasonable. PWE basically is a call option... if oil goes to $60 any time in the next two years, you will likely make money. Remember to put your stop losses in place on a rise, lest you watch your paper profits vanish.

    -Mike
    Mar 13, 2015. 02:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West - Lenders Drive A Hard Bargain [View article]
    Some funds can only invest in dividend paying stocks. 1 cent keeps them holding shares. 0 cents would be a mandatory sell.

    -Mike
    Mar 13, 2015. 02:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Petroleum declares C$0.01 dividend [View news story]
    It had already been cut to $0.03, so it's not as severe as it seems. The 1 penny lets them keep funds that have to hold dividend paying stocks. ;)

    They're in maximum preservation mode. If oil prices stay low for 3-4 years, they're sunk. Not worried if oil starts to climb within 1.5 years.

    -Mike
    Mar 12, 2015. 01:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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