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Stock Market Mike

 
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  • Seadrill downgraded at Citi as oil price uncertainty increases [View news story]
    I do wonder if them theorizing about a slowdown convinced the E&P plays to play harder ball (when negotiating), causing it.

    Same thing happened with oil. "Oh, oil is going down and the Saudis didn't cut production. It's going lower, so we better WAIT until it stabilizes to lock in contracts."

    -Mike
    Oct 20 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare Trust Of America Is A Valuable Player On My All-Star Team [View article]
    Unless the story changes, I plan to hold this one (and OHI) for a very long time.

    -Mike
    Oct 20 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Well-Positioned To Withstand Drop In Daily Rates [View article]
    Starting to get interested in it around the $13 mark, but still watching to see where it bottoms.

    Of interest: SDRL indicated they'd consider a similar strategy... gobbling up competitors in a weak market. JF is well capitalized for such an endeavour... $6b in cash onhand. Their financial guy is over at RIG streamlining their operations and spinning off old cruft... it makes me wonder if there's a plan in the works to make one massive state of the art drilling company. I'm probably dreaming, but you never know.

    -Mike
    Oct 18 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Rocket Science: BioMed Is A Buy [View article]
    A scare (interest rates are about to be hiked!) could come at any time, but the fed has proven time and time again that they react rather than act. That's why they raise rates late and back them off late.

    That means the economy will pick up steam before they hike rates, giving REITs a chance to grow earnings first. It'll depend on the sector and REIT obviously, but I suspect the lows and the highs will continue to move upward for many of them.

    OHI is one of my favourites. Love its wave pattern.

    -Mike
    Oct 17 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Ebola That Is Out Of Control, It Is The Media [View article]
    It's pissing rain here, so I'm going to do some late spring cleaning in my garage. My moves have been made... so now I just wait and see if my market thesis plays out. (Mainly that MU rebounds a bit. $26 was just too cheap.)

    Oh - I stumbled across an important comment regarding this ebola 'epidemic'...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    -Mike
    Oct 16 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After My Bad Call, Is Alcatel-Lucent Still Worth Holding? [View article]
    If it's like AMD it could have many profitable quarters and still go down.

    Has to be enough profit to cover and pay down debt.

    AMD reports after the close today, btw. The CEO news has everyone speculating that Rory got turfed and AMD will post a massive loss.

    -Mike
    Oct 16 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Rocket Science: BioMed Is A Buy [View article]
    You mean this September? Chart it against the VNQ. All REITs dropped when economic data came in really good, and projections rose to 3-4% on the 10yr in 2015.

    Since economic data started coming in really bad, and bond yields turned tail and ran. They've taken a dive to the lowest levels in a long time, so REITs are rebounding. (No interest rate fears for the time being.)

    http://cnb.cx/1ijWQmx

    -Mike
    Oct 15 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Rocket Science: BioMed Is A Buy [View article]
    I'd rather cite Wikipedia than any other encyclopedia - more eyes fact-checking it. Just like SA, they've proven that the crowd-sourced model works better.

    That said, it does have a stigma attached to it. If professors see Wikipedia cited as a source, you're going to get a lower mark.

    -Mike
    Oct 15 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley optimistic about Seadrill, but still eyes lower dividend [View news story]
    I hedged my shares and held my call options. (yes, I think I did that in reverse order that I should've)

    So... shares down 6%, call options down 85% and rising slowly. I'll just hold them... they are extremely far out LEAPs.

    -Mike
    Oct 15 06:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skyworks +9.1% on FQ4 guidance hike; peers also gain [View news story]
    SWKS always beats and raises by huge amounts. Glad that Bret Jensen put them on my radar!

    -Mike
    Oct 14 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping The Faith In Chicago Bridge & Iron [View article]
    Far out LEAP call options are reasonably cheap on this one. 2016 and 2017 LEAPs available. Somewhat conservative strikes like the $40 ones have breakeven points in the mid to low 50's.

    If your (And Berkshire's) thesis about the company is correct, and you think they could see $70 again, those strikes deliver reasonable upside. 2017 LEAPs have over 800 days for it to play out. Should be a clean 100% gain by the $60's, an easy triple if it can reach $80 again.

    Hopefully we don't have another HERO on our hands.


    I'm watching the market warily to see what it has in store for us over the coming days/weeks. I sense fear in the air. Makes me wonder how far this "correction" will go. I'm starting to see a lot of excellent on-sale stocks.... but every day they're more on sale than the last.

    -Mike
    Oct 14 01:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Week Ahead For Investors [View article]
    You should check out the rise in short interest on RIG. It's absolutely massive. The other offshore drillers don't have nearly as many shorts. Makes me wonder what they see that bulls don't.

    http://bit.ly/1qfMfrv

    -Mike
    Oct 12 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Elephants Fight, Ants Perish - Exxon Mobil, Seadrill And EU/USA Sanctions [View article]
    Did you take a position, or are you waiting for it to go lower?

    -Mike
    Oct 7 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Why Not Buy The Pullback At An AFFO Yield Approaching 10%? [View article]
    The equity raise at a huge discount certainly didn't help. It was rather dilutive.

    -Mike
    Oct 7 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: Coming Unglued ... [View article]
    Someone commented in another article here that CIE agreed to a $7 price per share. I don't know if that's true, but if it is then CIE management thought that was a pretty good price. Otherwise, why accept it?

    Wish I could find something to corroborate that. My long thesis is beginning to waver... though I was hedged for a chunk of this decline, so pain was limited.

    -Mike
    Oct 7 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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