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Stock Market Mike

 
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  • An Intelligent Way To Think About Healthcare Trust Of America's Reverse Stock Split [View article]
    REIT ETFs like the VNQ do pay dividends, but they may vary significantly from quarter to quarter. If income is your goal, that's not the way to go...

    With an ETF you buy everything on a specific date. The good, the bad, the do-nothing. The VNQ hasn't made that much progress since the start of 2013... some REITs are up well over 50% since then.

    http://yhoo.it/1wPRmUN;c=

    As an example, my main position in DFT was initiated on a double-bottom in Apr of this year.

    http://bit.ly/1wPRkwh

    Up about 45% since then... you can't do that with an ETF. You can't be selective about entry points and sectors. But you do protect yourself from blowups like ARCP... but not from perceived secular headwinds like rising rates. A REIT with enough growth and long term debt should be able to out-grow rising rates, but many REITs will not be able to, and it will show as stable or slight downward pressure on the ETFs.

    -Mike
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: A Big Value Story Most Of The Market Is Missing [View article]
    You clearly haven't been following SDRL, ARCP, or BBRY.

    Five times as many articles as MU... or perhaps even more.

    -Mike
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: A Big Value Story Most Of The Market Is Missing [View article]
    It's for technical reasons. MU is an easy stock to trade-vest... I have been since 2012. I mostly play it with call options because it has such a strong long-term bullish outlook. Hard to go wrong as long as you don't cut yourself short on time.

    Hedging at opportune times or selling out completely (to dodge dips) keeps my portfolio rising faster than shares or non-traded calls. I was able to buy about 30% more MU calls thanks to dodging this most recent dip from $36.50 to under $33.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I try to leave a track record for a lot of my moves. There's a lot of people on these boards that claim to be awesome, but without that timestamped track record it's hard to know whether it's bluff and bluster.

    http://bit.ly/1wPOdo8

    Things of note - most of the selloffs had high volume at the capitulation moments. This most recent one did not, but my view is that the fed may have just turned things around. Since I sold pretty much all my MU at $36.50 except some 2016 $20 strike LEAPS that I didn't want in this tax year, I had to get back in once it dipped far enough. Can't let the train get away from me.

    -Mike
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: A Big Value Story Most Of The Market Is Missing [View article]
    Yen weakened significantly this quarter. Anyone care to calculate how much of a benefit that will be to them?

    -Mike
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    If the oil price rises that rapidly by next year, I hope they'd put the funds towards paying down debt.

    But I don't think WTI will see $85 again for a while. Oil isn't my thing, but this downturn seems like it might last a bit longer than most.

    -Mike
    Dec 18, 2014. 02:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    They peaked around +14% at the highs of the day when oil was screaming higher. When it backed off, so did the stock... to +8%.

    I'm actually hoping it plunges under $2 so that I can buy a bunch and sit on it. Somehow I feel like it already put the low in, unless oil goes dramatically lower...

    -Mike
    Dec 18, 2014. 02:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West slashes dividend, cuts 2015 capital budget by 26% [View news story]
    Hey look, the stock went up after they cut it!

    -Mike
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Forward GDP Growth Prove More Elusive Than In The Past? [View article]
    Interesting first post.

    I think we can all agree that the velocity of money is what heals the economy, even if we disagree on how to increase it. An economy cannot be healthy with extreme wealth concentration - when wealth gets concentrated, debt must step in and take up the growth reigns - there must be more money supply or growth stagnates. I look at the rising debt levels as a symptom rather than cause.

    -Mike
    Dec 16, 2014. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Selling Exxon Mobil Goes Against The Grain Of A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    You make more by successfully trading. But if you're no good at it, stick with DGI.

    Anyone shorting 300 XOM shares on the way down gets to buy 370-380 shares today. Active management does lead to outperformance as long as you do it properly. But perhaps 10% of investors can do it properly.

    I sleep well at night having a large cash position, so I do a fair number of momentum plays while other people are buying... go with the flow, don't step in front of trains. SDRL/NADL taught me that.

    -Mike
    Dec 16, 2014. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Collapse In Oil Prices Rocks The Markets [View article]
    I'm starting to inch back in, selectively. Still waiting for the results/fallout from the FOMC meeting. Rebought some of the MU calls that I sold at $36.50

    Oil stocks starting to respond in a sane manner. Oil down, but a few of them are up today.

    -Mike
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill At Imminent Risk Of Bankruptcy... Really? [View article]
    I doubt JF would let his crown jewel be taken over. More likely he's looking to gobble up competitors...

    -Mike
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:36 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Debt Becomes Junk [View article]
    I agree that a dividend suspension is not priced in to RIG's shares.

    I disagree that it being priced in is never the case. CCG dove down to $6.15, then announced a dividend cut and restructuring plan, and rocketed back up to around $8. There are cases where it is priced in, but I suspect they are few and far between.

    -Mike
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Debt Plummets Along With Stock [View article]
    I think some of you are splitting hairs over wording. If a $40 stock declines 50%, then another 50%, then another 50%, it's a $5 stock... not a -$20 stock.

    SDRL has so far declined by 50% since the dividend cut...

    -Mike
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heads roll at American Realty Capital; shares -10% [View news story]
    But few people thought David Kay would be shown the door... question marks are forming.

    -Mike
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's talk $2 gas [View news story]
    Cliff has a point there. One of my major complaints has been that 'hidden inflation' has turned the lower class into a much lower class, resulting in anemic growth. Unlike China which is now trying to pull the minimum wage earners up, the US kinda went the opposite way, as costs of living have soared while inflation remains benign... I even saw a few politicians arguing to eliminate the minimum wage altogether.

    To have the most growth, you have to enact policies that encourage the movement/spending of money and increase the velocity of money. Anything that gets money into the hands of people that must spend 100% of it is more likely to do that. When I make more money, it doesn't recirculate nearly as fast. Much of the money that I make in 2014 will trickle in as capital gains around April 2016. I also want to compound my gains, so I look at $10 spent now as $100 wasted in the future, and am more likely to invest/trade than buy things that I desire.

    The focus should be on the people that put most of their paycheques towards living expenses. They aren't splurging on the best food... any 'tax break' that puts more money in their pockets will be spent on better food, more toys (like iPhones), more computers, more everything.

    -Mike
    Dec 14, 2014. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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