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Stock Market Mike  

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  • Buy Scorpio Tankers After The Earnings Blowout [View article]
    Do you have any thoughts on that other Scorpio company, SALT? I see a locked article, and the title isn't that flattering. It is a pair trade, though, so you must have an opinion on that sector?

    By chance I listened to some wise SA authors and got interested in STNG and SSW last year. Can't claim to be brilliant for that one, or I'd have bought more than a couple hundred shares... but I did follow! I appreciate articles like this, which provide a good view of how things are going for someone that doesn't follow the sector as closely as I should. Thanks!

    -Mike
    Aug 4, 2015. 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp: Think Twice [View article]
    You have to look at market cap vs spread. (price of gold MINUS cost of mining)

    If they were mining for $400 and selling for $500, that's of more value than mining for $900 and selling for $1000. We seem to be heading there, and the market is pricing in more weakness.

    -Mike
    Aug 3, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    There have been rumblings over the years that perhaps Saudi Arabia does not have as much oil in reserve as first indicated.
    http://bit.ly/1JZuLsP

    I wonder if depressing prices (while production levels are rising) right before declining production levels show up (2017-2019?) might be a way to snap up assets around the world on the cheap? Shale production will have declined significantly in 2-3 years, and if Saudi production declines slightly, that will be a double whammy. 2-3 years of low oil would be enough time that people would start to question the survival of many drillers and would even become nervous about the majors... there's sure to be better buying points in the future, if such manipulation really is taking place.

    That said, and all conspiracies aside - I prefer PACD to ORIG. I think PACD management is superb, and although ORIG has a lot of cash onhand, I don't think their management is quite as aligned with shareholders. I have a tiny ORIG position for some diversity. My PACD position is thousands of shares greater. I don't want too much exposure to this sector, because if oil doesn't show signs of strengthening, we'll all have opportunities to double down at far lower prices...

    -Mike
    Aug 2, 2015. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    I would love to see ORIG buy out DRYS ownership completely. DRYS can have the $200m or so in cash, and ORIG would sever ties with its parent company. That would be quite a stock buyback. I can't see them doing better on the open market - just announcing a buyback shoots prices upward 10-20%, making it difficult retiring as many shares with one tranche of funds.

    -Mike
    Aug 2, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale's Second Quarter Shows Strength [View article]
    "Wow how much further would the share price have gone down if management didn't know what they were doing?"

    99%.

    I've heard there's a few miners going bust in China right now. Probably a few in other parts of the world as well.

    -Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitestone REIT Is Now Yielding 8.9% [View article]
    In a booming economy, these guys should be okay - occupancy can easily grow by 10%, more than offsetting interest rate increases. (Though whether the share price gets hammered, I can't say.)

    In a muddle-through economy, these guys should be okay. Occupancy can slowly grow, and interest rate increases shouldn't be that severe.

    In a mild recession (perhaps induced by too many rate increases, too fast) they will not be able to increase rents (which are above average due to the tiny tenant focus) and will have rising rates to contend with. That's a bad combination and spells out dividend cut.

    That said, I like their strategy. I'm up in Canada, and I've seen malls go defunct in cities growing 3%+ annually. Usually some opportunistic developer swoops in, overhauls the look, gets a grocery store on long term lease, plus a bank or credit-union, an electronics store, a clothing store, a furniture store, a restaurant or coffee shop, etc.... and then suddenly people start returning to the mall. Who'd have thought it? Diversity is what gets people through the door, since you can go there for whatever you need. What a strange concept!

    -Mike
    Jul 31, 2015. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Lan beats by $0.04, beats on revenue [View news story]
    No boost of the dividend. They need to grow capital to purchase new patents & IP...

    I want this thing to grow - not just pump out 8% dividends indefinitely.

    -Mike
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Rocket Science: STAG Is Now Grossly Mispriced [View article]
    That was FFO, not FFO per share.

    -Mike
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Rocket Science: STAG Is Now Grossly Mispriced [View article]
    Dividends per share can't rise unless FFO or earnings per share also rise...

    I'm concerned that issuing equity at any price will erode their ability to increase dividends in the future. The market seems to be saying that 25% growth is unsustainable in this environment.

    -Mike
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:29 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ventas Inc.:10%+ Dividend Growth For Combined Entity [View article]
    25 shares and some cash.

    -Mike
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SCHZ: A Remarkably Complete Bond Fund [View article]
    Interesting fund. Very low expense ratio, which is important with low yield returns. I don't think we have anything like it in Canada? If you know of any, please send the ticker symbols my way. (I'm Canadian.)

    -Mike
    Jul 28, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale still overvalued even after hitting decade lows, Morgan Stanley says [View news story]
    What's that saying, again? Buy cyclical stocks when they are expensive, sell when they are cheap?

    -Mike
    Jul 28, 2015. 12:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency higher after lousy quarter [View news story]
    mREITs are all about percentages of percentages. A move from 1.6% to 2.4% would be equally as damaging as a move from 5% to 7.5%

    Since spreads are lower than in the past... they ramp up leverage! Great. More danger if they make a wrong move, or don't hedge adequately.

    The wheat will be separated from the chaff, and it will cost a lot of investors money.

    That said, I am trading ORC right now. Arguably terrible management, but dividend was just cut, share price got walloped, and I got in at $7.80. I figured a 21.5% dividend would hold me for a while. Even if they chopped it in half to a truly sustainable $0.07/month, it'd be a reasonable yield to hold onto for the long haul - but since they just cut, odds are they won't cut again right away, giving the stock time to float back upwards more in line with its peers.

    There's an mREIT guru on SA... ColoradoWealthManageme...
    http://bit.ly/1LTOsbn

    -Mike
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Long Awaited Correction Begun? [View article]
    If those little guys get pummelled, so will GILD. The same sector always gets punished, even if unjustly. GILD is good value at $100, but it'd be great value at $50-80.

    -Mike
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs see early bid thanks to broader jitters [View news story]
    I am suspicious that rates may not actually make it to the 'liftoff' point.

    -Mike
    Jul 27, 2015. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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