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Stock Market Mike  

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  • 2015 And Historical Bear Market Triggers [View article]
    Best post in this comment stream, I think.

    You can only spot a crash coming if you have correct data...

    -Mike
    May 29, 2015. 03:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean (Update): Another Wildcat For The Transocean Spitsbergen [View article]
    SA turns anything in brackets into links if there is a matching symbol.

    -Mike
    May 28, 2015. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean (Update): Another Wildcat For The Transocean Spitsbergen [View article]
    PACD shareholder here. Their earnings potential is around $1.50 if rates go back up and they accept their deliveries. $1.50 EPS "years down the road" - perhaps a half decade to a decade, perhaps sooner if oil snaps back. I bought a bunch near $3. I wouldn't sell it at $4... or even $6. Make me a $10 offer and I might sell.

    -Mike
    May 28, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DuPont Fabros declares $0.42 dividend [View news story]
    If confused, see comments here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    -Mike
    May 28, 2015. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Fed hike seems further off, data-center REITs stabilize [View news story]
    Holding these for the long haul. Barring the apocalypse, or a sudden and disruptive technological shift, we have about 1% of the datacentres that we'll need. ;)

    -Mike
    May 26, 2015. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let A Few Bad Apples Spoil This New REIT [View article]
    I would assume it's either first come first serve, or they do a percentage based on how many people want to sell shares. Dutch auctions are usually first come first serve.

    In the latter case, if you try to sell all of yours, you might only get 25% filled. In the prior case, you would want to ladder your sell orders, so that at least some get filled.

    http://bit.ly/1LC9hoo

    -Mike
    May 25, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW Announced The Partial Exchange Of The Loan Consented To Dryships [View article]
    I appreciate overhangs like this. There's a very high probability that it will eventually go away. In the meantime, all the better to DRIP with.

    -Mike
    May 24, 2015. 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom line pressured at Wal-Mart in Q1 [View news story]
    I think it's quite likely. I know quite a few people that shop more at Costco than Walmart. But it could also be debt overhang lag time.

    When you get a job after not having one for a while, you probably have debt to pay back, due to borrowing from friends or the bank? When you save at the pump, you pay back your debts first and try to build up a buffer in case your car or dishwasher or something else breaks down.

    ... and for the next time you go jobless.

    So at minimum wage (since most of these new jobs pushing us down past 5.4% unemployment are part-time low wage positions), and factoring in the cost of living, how long will it take to save up $3000+?

    A year? Two?

    There will be lag time before "gas savings" kick in. In the meantime, the wealthy that were into commodities a bit too much will be spending far less due to their oil stocks being in the toilet. But they probably weren't Walmart customers anyway.

    -Mike
    May 24, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.6% Dividend REIT New York Mortgage Trust Is Banking On Credit Investments, Will That Work? [View article]
    Don't forget your solar panels, rechargeable batteries and radio. Gotta have some music!

    -Mike
    May 23, 2015. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Krispy Kreme's Comeback Continues [View article]
    Thanks for the overview and history!

    I traded KKD at one point. They interested me, but I haven't kept up on them. I didn't realize how much of their growth was overseas.

    I'll keep them on my watchlist for when the price is right.

    -Mike
    May 23, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reports: Intel launching Skylake in late summer, subsidy for Rockchip CPUs [View news story]
    Correct. That should say Skylake rather than Broadwell... Broadwell was the shrink that improved power efficiency, Skylake is the redesign. Tick tock.

    -Mike
    May 22, 2015. 08:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax +5.5%; Samsung reportedly upping driver orders [View news story]
    Time for another run?

    -Mike
    May 22, 2015. 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil stocks slide as Eletrobras cut to junk by Moody’s [View news story]
    Keep in mind that we get the corporate slant rather than the socialist one. The good news coming from Brazil isn't widely publicized. She has more of the popular vote than Obama, and twice as much as Harper in Canada. (He's neared a 25% approval rating many times - but we have a flawed First-past-the-post voting system, rather than something proportional...)

    All the negative media (plus them being demonic socialists rather than holy capitalists) leads to many investors and funds desiring not to have any exposure to that country. That leads to a weaker currency due to less demand, raising import prices - that leads to high inflation. High inflation is not so desirable, especially with a rapidly weakening currency, so more investors stay away... currency weakens further... do you see the loop? It's pretty visible in the charts:

    http://yhoo.it/1LtDWnX;c=

    When these snowballs start rolling downhill, the only correct course of action is to get out of the way. I believe we may be nearing a turning point though. Even though Americans still don't like them and consider it a place to be avoided, the Chinese smell opportunity:

    http://bit.ly/1AjUCgM

    Brazil has resources. They'll be to China what Canada is to the USA. Heavy investments over the next few years will slow the currency slide and stabilize things a bit. Once more stable, other investors will come around, inflation will decline, and then eventually a bull market will ensue. Or maybe the bull market will ensue first - oil stocks turned around well before oil jumped from $44 to $60, as did the US market in 2009 before the recession ended. Seems like investors sniff out what's going to happen at least 6 months in advance.

    Just my opinion.

    -Mike
    May 22, 2015. 01:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk: Asymmetric Risk/Reward Based On Cash Flows [View article]
    This article is great! Very detailed and well reasoned. The only flaw that I can see is that those growth rates depend on them having great products, and I'm not so confident of that. The author is trusting blindly that management and the engineers will prevail, without any analysis of that. That's a bit too much blind faith for me. I primarily examine the upcoming tech when investing in tech companies... as tech companies often come and go.

    Samsung has been piling money into R&D for years to get the first mover advantage. They made it to 3D NAND a year or more ahead of their competition, and as such have been able to charge very high prices. Their 850 Pro SSDs have gone for nearly $1/GB (250GB for $250) at a time when competitors were selling SSDs 250GB SSDs for $80-140. Crucial (Micron) SSDs were on the low end of that range, which brings me to another point... and oldbeachlvr's post.

    Early indications are that the Intel/Micron 3D NAND is going to be quite good... possibly the lowest cost to produce of the bunch, and it will take a while for their competition to catch up. It is extremely probable that it will be the highest density and most reliable. Intel/Micron planar NAND already has an impressively low cost, though investors don't notice because the NAND gets sold so cheaply. (Big AAPL contracts at a discount, consumer SSDs priced extremely aggressively, etc..) On the other side of the JV Intel has been gobbling up enterprise marketshare, in part due to their NAND's reliability. That's a winning combination - reliable and cheap. Just a few quarters ago, around when SNDK's troubles started, I saw Crucial MX100 256GB SSDs going for $79.99 on sale. It did not affect Micron's margins negatively in any significant way... they kept beating on earnings. Granted, consumer isn't a huge part of their revenue - but they are very popular value SSDs that are gaining in popularity.

    Price wise, the new Intel stuff appears to have a disruptively low cost. They said they expect it to scale to 10TB+; 10TB in a 2.5" SSD indicates a phenomenal density improvement, as you'd be hard pressed to pack more than $1000 of NAND into that form factor. I doubt they will release a 10TB $1200 SSD, though - Intel seems to be aiming for some very high margins. (60%+) They will obviously milk enterprise just like how Samsung is currently milking consumers with their 850 PROs. But a 1TB SSD that costs ~$100 to produce will have great margins, whatever they decide to sell it for...

    This article provides some estimates - but Intel is the most likely company to get 64 layer 3D NAND figured out, so the density can potentially double from here. More if they do it on a smaller process.
    http://bit.ly/1F0TdtV

    Just my opinion based on all the bits that I have cobbled together from reading news blurbs, SA articles, conference transcripts, and as much info as possible about their upcoming technology. If SNDK does well, I think Micron will do better operationally. If SNDK doesn't do well, it will probably be because of Micron/Intel.

    -Mike
    May 22, 2015. 02:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Performance To Continue For Ocean Rig [View article]
    Good deal for ORIG, bad deal for DRYS. They lose the ~10% dividend on 4.4 million shares - that's got to cost them more than the interest.

    -Mike
    May 21, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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