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Stock Market Mike

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  • Intel beats by $0.01, revenues in line [View news story]
    If I had to guess - employee stock options. They've been silent killers for both QCOM and INTC.
    Apr 15 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Earnings: What Goes Up Usually Comes Down [View article]
    I have no idea which way INTC will bounce after earnings. This quarter could be exceptional, due to MSFT pushing millions of WinXP users to upgrade - or maybe not.

    I do find it strange that there's a lot of AMD options activity for this week, when AMD announces earnings after the close. That means they capture the INTC earnings release, but not the AMD one? Bizarre. Not sure what to think of that. AMD and INTC stock do generally move in tandem.

    -Mike
    Apr 15 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax falls 14% ahead of one-day Google Glass sale [View news story]
    They need a *strong* app ecosystem to sell $1500 glasses like hotcakes. If they do it poorly, some other company like Apple would come along and do it better. They have to take and hold the #1 spot. This can't be like Android, where it benefits other companies (Samsung, Microsoft) more than Google.

    I don't think Google will drop the project. That's more of a Microsoft line of thinking.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Is Now The Time To Buy The Dips? [View article]
    RS: I still think you need to diversify it a bit more. Maybe spice it up with a REIT or two, or high yield stock like SDRL. Dividend champions?... no. But today's newcomer could be tomorrow's winner. If you use sound strategies like stop-limits, then capital is only at risk if you blunder your entry point.

    ARCP and SDRL are both at the lower ends of their trading ranges right now. (though ARCP is exhibiting a lot of weakness) Very high dividends. Interest rate fears appear overblown for now, yet were the primary causes for the declines...

    I buy SDRL at $33, if it rises I get stopped out in the $34-35 range. Then I repeat... cost base now $1.50 lower. If it gets away on me, oh well.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Is Now The Time To Buy The Dips? [View article]
    "Problem is that people have been waiting for the bear since 2011. Even when it eventually arrives, they will not be able to buy cheaply enough to make up for the lost opportunities nor make up for the principal reduction if they had to eat into it in the absence of dividends. They need to stay invested, but cautious."

    Nonsense. Anyone that knows basic math knows that isn't true.

    It might not be true if you're like me - buy, then get stop-limits in place once it rises to guarantee a profit - but for someone holding "forever", a 25% drop in stock price during the next bear market on a 3% dividend stock means you can wait 8 years for that bear market to manifest before scooping shares of the company. Actually, longer - many credit unions offer perks like 2% chequing accounts or redeemable terms. I don't even shoot for companies with dividends in that range, as there's safer places to park money that are pretty close.

    DGI investors talk a lot about the power of compounding... I'm a firm believer in that. But I don't believe just in compounding dividends. Catchphrases like 'buy the dips and sell the rips' have merit. So when you flub the entry point at $24 and get a 5% yield, and I nail it at $20 and get a 6% yield, how does that compound?

    $1,000.00 - $1,000.00
    $1,050.00 - $1,060.00
    $1,102.50 - $1,123.60
    $1,157.63 - $1,191.02
    $1,215.51 - $1,262.48
    $1,276.28 - $1,338.23
    $1,340.10 - $1,418.52
    $1,407.10 - $1,503.63
    $1,477.46 - $1,593.85
    $1,551.33 - $1,689.48
    $1,628.89 - $1,790.85

    We both eventually sell at $28, providing you an additional gain of $167, and me $400. In ten years the difference was around $400 on initial capital of $1000.

    Although in reality the difference is larger than that. For a long time the stock floated around at a lower price and was "underwater" - in my case I wanted to own the stock just as much as the DGI investor, but got in at the lower end of its 10-15% trading range. I got stopped out repeatedly and immediately rebought after the next 5-10% dip at what appeared to be support levels, pocketing an additional 30% in the first year. Now the chart looks like this:

    $1,000.00 - $1,000.00
    $1,050.00 - $1,360.00
    $1,102.50 - $1,441.60
    $1,157.63 - $1,528.10
    $1,215.51 - $1,619.78
    $1,276.28 - $1,716.97
    $1,340.10 - $1,819.99
    $1,407.10 - $1,929.19
    $1,477.46 - $2,044.94
    $1,551.33 - $2,167.63
    $1,628.89 - $2,297.69

    There's a reason I focus heavily on good entry points.. and then sound and methodical strategies, like keeping those stop-limits in place. You *must* preserve capital, or else you can't take advantage of the next opportunity. Its especially important as we near the next bear market. Anyone that got stopped out in 2007/2008 had the opportunity to rebuy at *far lower* prices - many times more shares. Some companies dropped 50%, others 80 or 90%. Those that were brave in those fearful times have done very well in the years since.

    But without capital available they would not have. ;)

    -Mike


    For anyone curious, I've been buying DFT and SDRL and JNUG and keep getting stopped out of them. Compounding nicely. Nearly pays for one of my BIG options blunders in March.
    Apr 14 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors - The Story Just Keeps Getting Worse [View article]
    @E Nuff Sed:

    Assuming the market doesn't crash in the meantime, GM stock very well may hit and pass $55.

    But that leaves me wondering how high F will be, or TM.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding High On AeroGrow [View article]
    My $4.60 limit order triggered. Stop-limit now in place. Hope we get a rebound and I get to hold the shares.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra-Low-Risk Retirement Strategy For Folks Who've Saved $1 Million [View article]
    I think you both have the right mindsets and strategies for yourselves. You both have the right goals.

    I learned a long time ago that different people have different brain chemistries, desires, and mindsets. Some people are natural explorers, and get a thrill from climbing a mountain, seeing a beautiful sunset, and going sailing. It fulfils them. And some people are collectors - their pleasure is having a bunch of 60's cars, or every generation of computer or hard drive going back 30 years, or a pile of money that they don't actually do anything with. (But they COULD - which is enough to create anticipation and pleasure chemicals in their brains. The explorer actually has to go do something to derive the same pleasure.)

    I lean towards being a collector rather than an explorer. But there are many other mindsets out there than just those two! Figure out what fulfils you, and then plan so that you can reach your goals. There is no 'right' - only what is 'right' for you!

    -Mike
    Apr 14 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Part 2: New Jackup Contracts Promise Revenue Growth And Improve Forward Earnings Visibility [View article]
    Looks like the double bottom could be in for SDRL, indicating upside from here.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    LGF, however, is flatlining on a rather up day. Hmm...

    I am not sure what SDRL's price will be next month, or next year, but I strongly suspect it will be higher by next decade. I think the fear will slowly pass and their strategy will become more clear as they execute it. In the meantime... dividends!

    I've got a position only slightly larger than your own, but I bought a few long-dated calls to keep open the option of buying more at today's prices. (Or technically at just under $34) I will either sell those on a rise, morph them to a bull call spread, or use them to purchase shares sometime in the future.

    Or worse case, they expire worthless.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    Most people that don't like options don't know what they're missing. Options are the only way to manage risk that doesn't incur huge taxbills by selling off constantly. Options are quite poorly understood, as evidenced by the terrible track record that most people have when they try to use them. Perhaps if there were more insightful articles with deeper analysis and proper discussion of strategies, you might actually be interested?

    As with anything, an analysis (or options strategy) can be thorough and insightful or shallow and worthless...

    -Mike
    Apr 14 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    It's the only strategy with merit for some stocks. When I bought EROC I took advantage of the nearly 10% call option premiums (Just ONE MONTH OUT) to lower my cost base by that much. Now it looks like I'll have a cost base just over $4.60 if it stays under $5 and I keep the shares. That's proper risk management, but mentioning such a strategy in an article would get it rejected. What they want is 'STRONG BUY' or 'STRONG SELL' - disheartening, and not what I as a reader want.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    I dislike the political stuff too - doubly so, because I consider a lot of it bonkers and have a nearly opposite stance. (I am in one of the more socialist provinces in Canada, so right there I have three strikes against me from most Americans on this site.)

    To me the 'disease' is the quest for ever greater corporate profits. They do that by finding creative ways to dodge taxes, offshoring jobs, and by replacing employees with automated systems where applicable. You can't have a healthy economy unless you have people working, and when your efforts centre around job destruction and cost cutting rather than job creation and growth, eventually that catches up to you.

    The 'cure' to me is making moves that improves the velocity of money. The more money that flows through people's pockets (and into the tax base), the healthier the economy will be.

    Actions like saving huge amounts of cash and then eventually deploying it in a stock buyback... those actions are disheartening. I'd much rather see the company increasing capex and investing in itself. That helps some other company make money, employs a few more people, and improves the velocity of money. From my point of view, this poor post-war recovery is less due to government policies and more due to incredibly tight corporate purse-strings.

    If I were to post such things on another article, it would lead to 20 full-page responses. I've only made that mistake a couple times. Now I just ignore political posts. (Though I posted one here to help illustrate your point.)

    I think something like Slashdot, where you can rate posts by content would be good. Not just 'Like', but maybe tag comments and articles as politics or jokes or whatever, and then let readers decide what they want to see by implementing filters.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    Qualified analysts write stuff like BUY SDRL at $48, then when it plunges they say SELL SDRL at $33!

    TSLA? Was a SELL at $120, but now a STRONG BUY at $250?

    I have no relevant qualifications, but I can recognize good value better than some of these professional analysts. Many professionals seem to just be there to generate hype and direct the herd. How else can they drain your wallets?

    Say what you want, bloggers and SA have been outperforming wall street and many funds for years... that's invaluable. Take that away, and what's the point in being here over any other financial publication?

    SA is proving that crowd sourcing information is more accurate and that the 'open source' model works.

    Just my take on it.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    +1 for Options. Let the readership decide.

    "i would appreciate you controlling and preventing stupid view points and writings by non-qualified writers, as we all tend to take your writers here as serious and qualified people assuming SA has done its homework and allows only those who are truly qualified and known to be decent people. else, this will turn out to be another "chat" room with no reliability or professionalism to it."

    Quite often the stupid viewpoints come from the qualified writers. Quite often the incorrect viewpoints are the "form filled financial" articles with no analysis of the company's actions and strategies.

    When some guy in a gymnast jumpsuit posts 3 different articles on 3 undervalued companies, and they go up 40%+ within a couple months, I take notice - and I do not care that he is not a professional analyst that went to Harvard. I care that he spent the time to dig through a morass of financial info and research several companies that have poor media and analyst coverage. I care that he found me some undervalued gems.

    I would say once again, let the readership decide.

    -Mike
    Apr 14 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid This Well-Known Chipmaker [View article]
    That's a misquote. He said they spent closer to nothing, which is correct. R&D primarily paid for by MSFT and SNE... that's why they get such a sweet low margin deal. AMD didn't have to put up much cash to get that deal done. (Which is good - they didn't have enough cash to do it at the time, but they found a way and got it done.)

    -Mike
    Apr 14 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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