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Stock Market Mike

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  • Warren Buffett's Bad Day [View article]
    Doesn't take more than a quarter or two of 10% hits before it would've been smarter to pay the tax and buy back lower...

    I've been caught by that... I find it's better to take profits and not worry about taxes. You make more in the long run...

    Oct 22 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's Bad Day [View article]
    IBM is the only company that I know of that would spend hundreds of millions to billions on a project that might reward them a decade or two down the road. I have to respect some of the R&D they're doing... stuff like Watson shows great potential.

    That said, I've never liked the stock. Great companies often make terrible stocks, and vice versa. Great stocks often *are* terrible companies.

    Before investing, you need to know what you're actually doing - investing, trading, or some combination of the two. Buffet buys great companies. I buy stocks that I think could go up, and I sell them once they reach my target. Sometimes it's a great company, sometimes it's a pummelled one left out to dry (and I'm just playing a rebound), and sometimes it's both. (CBI probably fits that criteria.)

    Oct 22 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Sell Seadrill And Transocean [View article]
    I'm excited about the comments he's been making. If he could get $5b from bankers, and has $6b of his own personal fortune in cash... it'd be enough to sweep up the sector, acquiring a whole lot of competitors. It's even enough to buy Transocean, though I'm not advocating that.

    Oct 21 01:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Sell Seadrill And Transocean [View article]
    Anyone else notice RIG's ever increasing short interest? It's up to about 22% of the outstanding shares now? SDRL's is only 5%, and dropping?

    Oct 21 10:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Realty Capital Properties Closes Sale Of Shopper Center Portfolio [View article]
    My original thesis was that ARCP just had to do nothing for 2-3 quarters for the stock price to rise. Hitting FFO targets would convert people over to buyers.

    Instead they have acquired Cole, acquired the Red Lobster properties, raised equity when they said they wouldn't (at prices lower than they said they would ever consider it), divested Cole (but in an odd way that still maintains some of the earnings), and dropped FFO guidance no less than twice.

    "Why has it remained a bargain for so long?"

    Because they're very active double-speaking managers that the market is leery of. Market still wants 2-3 quarters of untainted results, at the least. 4-5 would be better, making Y/Y comparisons more relevant.

    I'm long ARCP because I appreciate the relationships that they're building with financial institutions, and like their scale. But I don't have to ask why their share price has been held down - it's pretty obvious to me.

    Oct 21 10:28 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B.C. to require world's lowest LNG emissions, tax details to come tomorrow [View news story]
    Trees are one of the most natural forms of carbon sequestration.

    Burn them all!

    Oct 21 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B.C. to require world's lowest LNG emissions, tax details to come tomorrow [View news story]
    I live in BC, and I have to say, we're kinda between a rock and a hard place.

    Our former premier Gordon Campbell orchestrated selling off a lot of rivers to American corporations, so there's no longer anywhere for BC Hydro to expand and build more dams. The only option there would be repealing the sales/leases, which wouldn't make the buyers terribly happy. I think it'd also put us up there with India as far as 'business friendliness'. He's the same guy that sold our ferries to the US for less than they could get scrapping them, so that they could smear the party that was in power when they were built as having done an even bigger financial blunder.

    At the same time the Harper government decided that anything environmental was a waste of money, and scrapped a lot of our programs... including cutting back on the BC coastguard and their equipment. Quite a few bases were closed. You heard about the Russian ship that nearly smashed itself upon our shores, and how woefully unprepared we were? This is at a time where our government is trying to ram pipelines through, which will have a lot of tanker ships entering our waters. We're not prepared for that.

    Our politicians are so petty and shortsighted. They're saving/raising money by cutting all the safety precautions that would help pipelines work, and by selling off land essential for future energy production. Such actions clearly put them in line for a raise! Perhaps we should add greedy to that list, too.

    Some people would call them morons, whose actions reflect self interest more than anything else. But I can't call anyone that protects their own interests so well a moron.

    As far as this emissions standard, it's not that stringent. It can be reached quite easily by purchasing carbon credits and investing in "Green R&D". Since getting to that level can be bought, it's basically just another BC tax. If you lived here, you'd have noticed that most business writeoffs are getting reduced or axed, so even though we're paying the same % tax, more and more dollars are going to the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA - like IRS) every year.

    Oct 21 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Boring Dividend Increase For Omega Healthcare Investors [View article]
    Doesn't seem too likely. Their growth is in the 10-15% range... I expect the lows to go up 10-15% per year. Unless interest rates make a sudden and dramatic move upward, or reimbursements are impacted in a very negative way, I don't see them hitting $30.50 or even $32 again.

    Oct 21 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill downgraded at Citi as oil price uncertainty increases [View news story]
    I do wonder if them theorizing about a slowdown convinced the E&P plays to play harder ball (when negotiating), causing it.

    Same thing happened with oil. "Oh, oil is going down and the Saudis didn't cut production. It's going lower, so we better WAIT until it stabilizes to lock in contracts."

    Oct 20 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare Trust Of America Is A Valuable Player On My All-Star Team [View article]
    Unless the story changes, I plan to hold this one (and OHI) for a very long time.

    Oct 20 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Well-Positioned To Withstand Drop In Daily Rates [View article]
    Starting to get interested in it around the $13 mark, but still watching to see where it bottoms.

    Of interest: SDRL indicated they'd consider a similar strategy... gobbling up competitors in a weak market. JF is well capitalized for such an endeavour... $6b in cash onhand. Their financial guy is over at RIG streamlining their operations and spinning off old cruft... it makes me wonder if there's a plan in the works to make one massive state of the art drilling company. I'm probably dreaming, but you never know.

    Oct 18 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Rocket Science: BioMed Is A Buy [View article]
    A scare (interest rates are about to be hiked!) could come at any time, but the fed has proven time and time again that they react rather than act. That's why they raise rates late and back them off late.

    That means the economy will pick up steam before they hike rates, giving REITs a chance to grow earnings first. It'll depend on the sector and REIT obviously, but I suspect the lows and the highs will continue to move upward for many of them.

    OHI is one of my favourites. Love its wave pattern.

    Oct 17 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Ebola That Is Out Of Control, It Is The Media [View article]
    It's pissing rain here, so I'm going to do some late spring cleaning in my garage. My moves have been made... so now I just wait and see if my market thesis plays out. (Mainly that MU rebounds a bit. $26 was just too cheap.)

    Oh - I stumbled across an important comment regarding this ebola 'epidemic'...

    Oct 16 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After My Bad Call, Is Alcatel-Lucent Still Worth Holding? [View article]
    If it's like AMD it could have many profitable quarters and still go down.

    Has to be enough profit to cover and pay down debt.

    AMD reports after the close today, btw. The CEO news has everyone speculating that Rory got turfed and AMD will post a massive loss.

    Oct 16 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Rocket Science: BioMed Is A Buy [View article]
    You mean this September? Chart it against the VNQ. All REITs dropped when economic data came in really good, and projections rose to 3-4% on the 10yr in 2015.

    Since economic data started coming in really bad, and bond yields turned tail and ran. They've taken a dive to the lowest levels in a long time, so REITs are rebounding. (No interest rate fears for the time being.)

    Oct 15 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment