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  • Is Tesla Really Overvalued?
    Today, 11:23 AM TSLA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla has great comps.
    • But what will comps look like going forward?
    • And what is the price action telling us?
  • Autodesk Is The Stock Of The Week
    Yesterday, 11:34 AM ADSK Comment!

    Summary

    • ADSK has been correlating with the market.
    • If that continues, ADSK can be very actionable.
    • Our observations suggest the market is beginning to break.
  • Real Estate Shorts Are In Play
    Fri, Sep. 12 SRS Comment!

    Summary

    • SRS triggered early on Friday.
    • The Economy is very weak (underlying).
    • The beginning of a major correction may be happening right now.
  • Take Profits From Capital One Short Positions
    Thu, Sep. 11 COF 2 Comments

    Summary

    • COF shorts were established at higher levels.
    • The Profit Target was hit and profits should have been secured.
    • But the fundamentals still look very concerning for COF.
  • Is It Time To Buy TBT?
    Mon, Sep. 8 TBT 2 Comments

    Summary

    • TBT looks very interesting.
    • Money flows came out of Treasuries last week.
    • But we need to understand the underlying catalysts before making a decision.
  • Sell Apple And Prepare For A Market Crash
    Fri, Sep. 5 BAC, FB, GE 61 Comments

    Summary

    • The market is set up to crash.
    • There are very few stocks that will be sheltered.
    • Apple is not one of them.
  • Apple Is Weak, That Is Not Normal
    Wed, Sep. 3 AAPL 108 Comments

    Summary

    • AAPL has been the driving force behind the NASDAQ strength.
    • So what will it take to break AAPL?
    • One thing could be valuation.
  • Morgan Stanley Valuation Analysis
    Fri, Aug. 29 MS Comment!

    Summary

    • MS has a solid EPS Growth Rate.
    • Compared to growth, the PE is reasonable.
    • But the stock is testing longer term resistance.
  • A Bidding War For Tim Hortons?
    Mon, Aug. 25 THI, BKW 8 Comments

    Summary

    • BKW has awful revenue trends.
    • BKW has EPS growth that cannot be trusted.
    • THI looks like a much better company.
  • Valuation Versus The Technicals For American Eagle
    Thu, Aug. 21 AEO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • AEO looks horrible on a valuation basis.
    • However, the technicals show a breakout.
    • Which is more important to you as an investor?
  • Don't Ever Short A Dull Market, Right?
    Tue, Aug. 19 QLD, QID 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The market is absolutely slow.
    • But it is at longer term resistance too.
    • Is this a clear sign of complacency?
  • Trading Versus Investing In PNC Financial
    Mon, Aug. 18 PNC Comment!

    Summary

    • The relationship between revenues and EPS is concerning.
    • Quarterly EPS Growth Rates have turned negative.
    • This could hurt PEG ratios and valuation metrics.
  • Shorting The U.S. Treasury Bond With ETFs
    Sun, Aug. 17 TBT, TLT, TMV 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Global economic concerns are real.
    • Domestic economic concerns are real.
    • Bond market investors are traditionally smarter than stock market investors.
  • Target Is Significantly Overvalued
    Thu, Aug. 14 TGT 34 Comments

    Summary

    • TGT has negative earnings growth.
    • TGT has a 28 multiple.
    • Something is very wrong with that picture.
  • Yum Brands Is Still An Avoid
    Wed, Aug. 13 YUM 2 Comments

    Summary

    • YUM Brands Has Questionable Earnings Growth Rates.
    • That makes it look interesting at first glance.
    • But breakdowns from here would wipe out the multiple expansion.
  • Risks In Caterpillar Are Very Clear
    Tue, Aug. 12 CAT 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Earnings growth does not warrant the current multiple.
    • 5 out of the 6 past quarters have seen negative earnings growth.
    • Longer-term support is being tested.
  • Facebook Is Interesting If The Market Holds Up
    Mon, Aug. 11 FB 6 Comments

    Summary

    • FB is considered a high flier and an aggressive stock.
    • But valuation is not obtuse.
    • The catch is the market.
  • McDonald's Investors Should Be Concerned
    Mon, Aug. 11 MCD 8 Comments

    Summary

    • EPS Growth has recently turned negative.
    • The Stock Trades at almost 17x Earnings.
    • Should we pay 17x for no growth?
  • SanDisk Looks Like A Value Play
    Thu, Aug. 7 SNDK Comment!

    Summary

    • SNDK has an EPS growth rate over 30%.
    • SNDK has a PE multiple of about 15x.
    • The stock looks inexpensive on that basis.
  • Catalysts For A Rally In The VXX
    Wed, Aug. 6 DIA, IWM, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The markets have begun to break down technically.
    • Monetary policy is not what it was last year.
    • And the Macroeconomic picture is not good.
  • Stock Traders Daily Rates Tesla Avoid
    Tue, Aug. 5 TSLA 25 Comments

    Summary

    • TSLA is clearly a high flier.
    • However, the risk-on environment is changing.
    • And high fliers may be less favorable as a result.
  • Stock Traders Daily Rates Amazon 'Avoid'
    Tue, Aug. 5 AMZN 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation matters to smart money again.
    • AMZN was improving already lofty valuation metrics.
    • But the company has hit a road block, and that could spell trouble.
  • Genworth Financial Is An Avoid
    Mon, Aug. 4 GNW Comment!

    Summary

    • EPS looks like it has been growing solidly.
    • But Revenues have been deteriorating.
    • And now there has been a technical breakdown too.
  • Smaller Investors Provide Warnings Signs
    Fri, Aug. 1 AAPL, GE, TWTR 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Smaller investors buy aggressively at market tops.
    • Smaller investors often do not approach this as a business.
    • Smaller investors tend to make material mistakes.
  • SanDisk Is The Stock Of The Week
    Tue, Jul. 29 SNDK 1 Comment

    Summary

    • SNDK has excellent EPS growth rates.
    • It actually has interesting valuation metrics as well.
    • But the stock price is falling and price is what makes us money.
  • Microsoft May Be A Good Short From Here
    Fri, Jul. 25 MSFT 22 Comments

    Summary

    • MSFT has current valuation risks.
    • The company has lots of work to do.
    • And the stock has tested longer term resistance.
  • Facebook May Be Fairly Valued, But It Is Not A Buy
    Thu, Jul. 24 FB 46 Comments

    Summary

    • FB trades in line with its growth rate.
    • That makes it fairly valued.
    • But buy signals do not exist.
  • The Earnings Trough For Apple
    Tue, Jul. 22 AAPL 20 Comments

    Summary

    • APPL experienced an earnings trough in Q3 2013.
    • Since then earnings have started to grow.
    • But we cannot say the stock is back 'on track'.
  • Investors Love Or Hate Netflix
    Mon, Jul. 21 NFLX Comment!

    Summary

    • NFLX is growing fast.
    • But it is growing less fast than it was.
    • Still, the multiple reflects much more rapid growth.
  • Multiple Re-Balancing For Chipotle?
    Mon, Jul. 21 CMG 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock trades at 55 times Earnings.
    • But it is only growing at 12% a year.
    • Multiple re-balancing could lie ahead.
  • Investors In Honeywell Should Pay Attention To Valuation
    Thu, Jul. 17 HON 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation matters and HON looks rich.
    • It trades at almost 20 times earnings.
    • But it is only growing at about 4%.
  • Valuation Risk Is Sky-High For General Electric
    Thu, Jul. 17 GE 21 Comments

    Summary

    • GE trades at 22 times earnings.
    • But its quarterly growth rate is negative.
    • And its yearly growth rate is only about 1.4%.