How about increased LDL-C levels with Lovaza? ( around 50%) a better efficacy profile, prescription to 200-500 category? Would love to hear your response???
It is hard give a price target post anchor model, yes there would be expansion. But i think its more about sentiment in the short run and sales or BO in the long run. The anchor results will create a positive sentiment and push up the price in the short run. Until detailed results come out, I cant say how the target price will change and therefore cant really Quantify the long term affect.
Yupp, I think its more like a poker game at this stage and each card on the table is a risk, Amarin would want to shoulder mimimum amount of risk. In poker lingo, they dont want to shop they cards and want buyers to call blind.
Thanks for the Counter Argument Douglas, I think a very simple response to all of this should be the top management's past record. Are they capable? Yes. Is it impossible to sell a Fish oil with out Big Pharma assistance? No. In fact this very same team has done it before
Yes, that is true there will be a hit if any on the entire industry, but I am optimistic about the results and if the results are negative, multiples will contract no doubt.
Yes that would definately be a home run, but even in case of immaterial results, it comes down to alternative treatments and Vascepa's efficacy as compared to them, which at this point gives it the uper hand.
Its all about Risk Apetite Amrnlong, its the management's decision that they want to bear the risk of approval results or transfer it to someone else.... Let me get back to you on the other part of your question with some research.
Yes are right to some extent, but this is not totally a best case scenario, but yes stuff can go wrong. I plan to write a report on all the downside risks to Amarin soon. About Vascepa being better than Lovaza, that's a slam dunk thing and at the end of the day mate, it comes down to trusting the management. I trust Amarin's management because I believe their past record deserves trust. Cheers
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