Comments on Stock Yid's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/stock-yid/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-748079 748079 This stock will shoot up on earnings.. there will be terms like raised > outlook and people are still getting married.. ha ha.. and the tight > float... it will go up. yup.. no one will pull the plug on this fraud > now.. also look at the overall trend... DOW is again inching towards > 10K... > > sorry folks but shorting this is going to burn u.. in the short team]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:13:46 -0500
On Nov 05 04:07 PM User 330746 wrote:

> This stock will shoot up on earnings.. there will be terms like raised
> outlook and people are still getting married.. ha ha.. and the tight
> float... it will go up. yup.. no one will pull the plug on this fraud
> now.. also look at the overall trend... DOW is again inching towards
> 10K...
>
> sorry folks but shorting this is going to burn u.. in the short team]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-746878 746878 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:07:33 -0500
sorry folks but shorting this is going to burn u.. in the short team]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-746034 746034 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:42:44 -0500
I usually dont pay too much attention to institutional ownership or insider ownership.

The stock may not drop to fair value this month but the only time there is a chance of a stock correcting to fair value is when they announce earnings. Look at DRIV & STEC as nice examples. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-742656 742656 Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:35:59 -0500
You would have been better just shorting the stock, as the likelihood of such a large correction post November is remote. Typically just because a stock is down or profits are bad, the fund manager won't immediately dispose of the holdings. As someone else pointed out, unwinding large holdings in a relatively illiquid stock can become problematic and are done over a longer time period depending on the trading volume, otherwise they won't be able to sell it.

If I wanted to sell 10m shares but the average daily traded volume was 100k then its not going to happen.

The second thing to consider is that the fund managers holding this, it probably represents a tiny proportion of their overall funds so again they will not be bothered if they dispose of this in November post results or say in 3 months from now. The total cash available for reinvesting will be so tiny that it will become lost in the roundings.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-740842 740842 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:48:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-740831 740831 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:43:04 -0500
I bought the $45 Nov Calls. I would have liked to get them for $0.05 but there is no market for them so I had to almost hit the ask. I paid $0.30 which is dirt cheap if it hits my target of $17.50 - $25.00.

I wish myself luck :-) ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-740531 740531 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:23:50 -0500
ps. Does anyone know where I can get a list of holdings that the "muppet" fund managers listed above have. If their analysis is anything to go buy, it may be worth shorting their entire portfolios.

Also note my terminology of "muppet" comes from a regional variation

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-740215 740215 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:51:19 -0500
I ended up buying some of the Nov $45 Puts on it. This way I know what my max loss on it is and maybe, just maybe, this will be the quarter when the fund managers decide the charade must end.

Best of luck everyone! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-736160 736160 Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:40:02 -0400 The real fools are the investors who entrust their money to those managers. If my money was in one of their funds I would be calling them up to find out their ratioinale for investing my money in NILE. That would be a fascinating conversation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-735773 735773 Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:08:51 -0400
MORGAN STANLEY INST FD INC-SMALL COMPANY GROWTH PORT
AMERICAN FDS INSURANCE SER-GROWTH FD
SMALLCAP WORLD FUND
BARON GROWTH FUND
FIDELITY MID-CAP STOCK FUND
EVERGREEN OMEGA FUND
Columbia Fds Ser Tr-Columbia Marsico 21st Centry Fd
BARON PARTNERS FUND
ING INV TR-ING/EVERGREEN OMEGA PORTFOLIO
AMERICAN FDS INSURANCE SER-GLOBAL SMALL CAPITALIZATION F
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-735342 735342 Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:53:03 -0400 The key here is float analysis. The total share issuance is 14M.

According to Yahoo, 126% of all the shares outstanding are held by institutions and 3% are held by insiders finance.yahoo.com/q/mh.... I am not sure how this is possible, and it may not be entirely accurate, but it helps explain the manipulation. There is virtually no truly free float for the retail investors.
The total number of shorted shares is now 2.7M. But, it is important to note that during the run from 20 in March to 66 last week, the short position declined from 6M to 2.7M. With the float as tightly tied up as it has been, each bump in price has caused more and more weak shorts to cover (margin calls), and it has been hard to borrow, adding more short squeeze fuel. The short squeezes combined with the tight float has forced the price higher and higher. If you watch the trading in this stock you will note a tendency to have it run up in the early trading based on the margin calls and borrow calls from the previous day.
The tight float is indeed a two edged sword, however. Any large holder that trys to exit will drive this down very quickly. Nobody reallly beleives this stock is "worth" 65. The question the institutions need to grapple with is how do they exit and get their hands on the mirage value. In addition, the 3M shares that have covered are all waiting on the sidelines hoping to get in for the ride down...Any combination of selling of any size from those burned shorts or any one institution that trys to exit will burst the balloon.
The question is when will that happen, and can the shorts still holding wait until it does.

"the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" .. I believe the quote is attributed to Bernard Baruch.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-734507 734507 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:58:08 -0400
Which is not the same as saying its a good stock or a good company.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-733923 733923 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 10:56:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-733274 733274 Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:12:32 -0400
Don]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169101-earnings-will-sink-blue-nile-s-stock?source=feed#comment-732337 732337 Tue, 27 Oct 2009 11:05:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141709-palomar-medical-technologies-where-will-share-prices-go-next?source=feed#comment-537646 537646 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 15:48:13 -0400
The stock was officialy up today but it couldnt make a new 52 week high.

This move is going to be much slower than I hoped for.

I think it is a long term buy but I dont have the luxury of time! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59054-nutrisystem-s-4q-should-vindicate-past-quarters?source=feed#comment-111002 111002 Thu, 17 Jan 2008 04:03:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59054-nutrisystem-s-4q-should-vindicate-past-quarters?source=feed#comment-109102 109102 Wed, 09 Jan 2008 00:26:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59054-nutrisystem-s-4q-should-vindicate-past-quarters?source=feed#comment-108824 108824 Mon, 07 Jan 2008 19:11:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59054-nutrisystem-s-4q-should-vindicate-past-quarters?source=feed#comment-108494 108494 Sun, 06 Jan 2008 09:04:57 -0500
I predice ntri goes bankrupt in 2009.

Enjoy.
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