Long/short equity, deep value, value, research analyst
Long/short equity, deep value, value, research analyst
Contributor since: 2011
Company: The Scott Matusow Show
Sure -- late response obviously.. Not stuck anymore. Was around 6 when I wrote this. went to 150 bucks.. 2500% gain - not bad!
Wasting you time with this guy Amy. Many people out there like him sadly enough. This is why I don't like SA that much any more -- they don't vet their writers enough
You aren't wrong. This is why I asked that. well. I will be nice, that " lovely person" what the reference drug was for RDX-022. I already knew the answer. I was testing to see if that guy being an "ARDX bull" actually understood his stuff -- he doesn't.
Note that ARDX says their solution is "novel" LOLOL! on a 505B-2 being Novel?
I never said " none succeed"
Consider they are hiding illegal activities. Try that angle, because they are.
ATRS is a loser and a dog, period. u want me to do a piece on it? Ok, it would be a bear piece.
I' have nothing to add to INVE or get on calls and waste my time with a board that just lies and is grossly incompetent at best, and criminally liable at worse.
Anything else?
I know nothing. nada in 16 years doing this. I'll ask again -- WHAT IS THE REFERENCE DRUG the 505B2 is based on?
505B2 when asked for is almost always granted, and could end up the wrong way for a developmental pharma to go.
It DEPENDS in great part on the reference drug .. Now again, what is the reference drug the 505B2 was granted on? This is not a pissing contest. I might become an ARDX bull, but if you are going to tout it, u should know these things. I've seen tons of companies FAIL going the 505b2 route.
It will take a min of 2 years to run the P3, 3 months for data collection. 1 to 2 months for data release + plus another 6 months assuming NDA is filed right away - that's 3 years, or 2019.
505B 2..
I'm curious, what is the referenced drug product for RDX022 because that matters HUGELY for 505b-2.
In comparison to ZS9 and Veltassa, where is RDX022 to treat an "unmet need" when both of the above drugs, one approved, one likely to be approved, will address the unmet need?
Theory is for College professors earning 50k a year. In other words, theory is horse poop in real world application The most successful business people could care less about theory - many are college drop outs.
Come back when $ARDX's drug shows positive P3 data, then we can talk, otherwise it's way too early to be pushing it as "the next big thing" and has no place in the hyperkalemia world at this time. Perhaps it might in 3 years.
When will people stop this nonsense?
U really dont understand how important having something first to market is, do you?
So many people "think" they know biotech because they "think" their company has "the drug." However, it does not work in ways "you think" as many of you ARE NOT BUSINESS people.
So, u are claiming something that is potentially 3 or 4 years away, that has not advanced yet to anywhere near an NDA will "dominate the market."
How so when other drugs such as Veltassa and ZS-9 will have a big head start?
Clearly, you are lacking in business aptitude.
I dont agree. Author is showing the possibility of ZS9 receiving a similar label. Nowhere does he say the drug is not good. His more rounded point would be based on the price paid for ZH = $2.7B verses the $1.2B for $RLYP is currently selling at market for.
"RLYP fanaticism" would best be explained in terms of current market to what the actual market cap should be. If this stock was trading in the $40's, you would see less "RLYP fanaticism."
And would need to be a multi center trial. What is safety in larger patient population? This type of P3 would be MINIMUM 2 years to collect out come measures. We are talking 2018 minimum, not "within a year."
3 years minimum. Are you high? How do you figure ARDX platform is a year away? I mean if you can offer evidence for this, I'm all ears!
U are wrong; many SMALL/MICRO cap companies do in fact risk being delisted to hide stuff.
There is a lot more to this story then you are aware of..
Christopher Hamilton is a smart man :)
Define China's Shadow banking Shaduc. If you understand it, your view might be a tad different. i
Another well-done piece. Me thinks the Fed and buddies make up the "Blics"
if you are right Salmo, then it will persist a lot longer since a commodities wreck will wipe out Glencore and other trading desks, likely causing another credit issue as in 2008.
Well, the actual "excess" reserves aren't used for liquidity, but for leverage on. Refer to how tutes like GS, JPM, MS, and other Fed broker dealers were turned into banks for this reason in part - leverage to pump up the stock market.
Then, look at each of those tutes derivative exposure, and u will know why the fed CANNOT raise the fund rate :)
Not exactly correct. It's not forcing states to spend what they don't have. They would have if banks have real incentive to loan, and it's not the states I am referring to being "forced" but private business taking out the loans to invest. However, you do have a point as Americans in general prefer driving, but also, that point could change if those with proper creative innovation create a demand that people REALLY want to use and are not forced to use.
I was not getting at forcing anyone into anything.. Those were general ideas which involve specifics in how they would work.
In a perfect world, DC would cut spending (apply the brakes) drastically. For instance, tax cuts definitely help, but not when government increases spending. Also in a perfect world, we would not have nearly 50 million Americans on food stamps, Americans who can't control their spending, can't control how many kids they have, and various other things we as a people need to improve on.
Ultimately what I proposed won't work unless the majority of Americans obtain to a better character level, start caring about each other's neighbors and are willing to make real sacrifice starting from the top down.
"I do not understand how credit default swaps have avoided being deemed a form of insurance and, thus, subject to the regulations governing insurance. "
Because if it was regulated, those who deal in would have to curtail their greed, and they pay politicians to make sure that does not happen :(
"With respect to quantitative easing I understand that liquidity levels have risen dramatically but this has not translated into a significant increase in lending. In other words there appears to be a disconnect between QE and overall leverage."
Because QE increased excess reserves which earn interest without a perceived risk. Banks have no real incentive to loan to main street. Loaning for margin interest in stocks. See the fed "broker dealers" and how they have become official "banks."
Who are these dealers? $GS, $JPM, $MS .. all designated as banks so 1. they could be "bailed out" and additionally engage in the treasury buying and selling which they also use as leverage.
The problem is the same as before == quick and easy desire for money causes lax regulations and manipulation to get said money. What's happening today is just a continuation of 2008. In my opinion, our financial system received the first nail in the coffin in the early 70's when we were taken off the gold standard to allow USD to become the preferred reserve currency. This era is otherwise known as "the era of prosperity."
Ok. and define how 2008 bubble burst and u should be able to get a clearer picture.
Just like when I said the same thing in 2008? U sound very educated - one more time, formal education in finance is based on various theories -- which were created by those in ivory towers and have little to no real world application today.
Answer = Yes, it's called common sense. Theoretical equations mean nothing in real world application
Holy Toledo, the above comment wins an award I'd rather not mention here. NIRP is the Fund Rate -- Mcfly?
Awesome article -- and no comments? swap spreads coming down is alarming. I have been screaming for awhile now that there is a liquidity problem and warned my subscribers accordingly before stocks took a nasty downturn. I sense another global "financial crisis" and stock market crash is imminent.
Well written article. The fact is that central banks would have to orchestrate a crisis in order to implement nirp. U are correct, they can't do it now, so I expect a stock market crash and global strong recession in order to the catalyst that sparks the "once-and-for-all" destruction of global finance
DrewMcVay < First off, Can you show me an audit of the fed balance sheet so we can see what it is exactly?
2nd. Increasing debt from QE3 was bound to have some positive effects, but the velocity was not matched up. It's not a blanket statement, the charts I show clearly show the real story. One spike in 2013 is from excessive QE, which if continued, would put the fed at risk of insolvency. Congressional lack of real legislation during this time to further bolst the economic condition hurt. But QE is like a drug. Sure, u increase it and u get a short term pop, just like taking a crack hit.
Your view on student loans and others are wrong sighted. All u are doing by making that easier to get is creating even more future debt and even a bigger bubble.
So, your conclusion is that QE should be a constant? The fact is that it cant be paid back and properly be unwound. U failed to get the main jist of my article -- More QE causes more malinvestment, more CDS, more leverage, more "quick and easy" money for the gamblers to malinvest with as they just treat it as a quick and easy buck. That's not investment, as true investment bets on the long term and again, not the instant short term gratification -- that causes destruction as in 2008 as the powers that be made a killing off of lending to those who really didnt qualify -- they knew that and bet against their own loans, figuring they would make quick and easy money because afterall, home prices would just keep going up, right?
So, targeting housing to make loans easy and quick creates another subprime issue. Maybe USA should stop outsourcing jobs just so a corporation can have a "more attractive bottom line" The chickens are coming home to roost" because of this very issue.
The ultra rich want everything tipped too far in their favor. They love easy money, and a good deal of them are extreme sociopaths. That not how real wealth is built on. Real wealth should be from hard work and over time and not created with "complex financial engineering" = HEROIN, CRACK. Furthermore, more QE burdens future generations all for the sake of our instant gratification.
To close, targeting housing just creates more subprime issues. more manipulation and more of everything I just said. Without proper wage growth and homegrown organic jobs, it's temporal and will also result in another crash from a manipulated bubble.
perhaps EVERYONE should sacrifice for a better tomorrow, not just ask the average person to do so just for the sake that we can have a higher ballooned stock market -- which is coming because fed will QE more and add NIRP to the mix which will result in what you want.. Tell me afterwards how it worked, because that's the last bullet.
Perhaps this is why China is REALLY dumping FX and the decision to make Yuan a reserve currency has been delayed because? USD is not only reserve currency. More and more nations are NOT PREFERRING it over the others.
Originally, this is somewhat true. but the demand he spoke of is in itself a manipulation to FORCE demand and deny natural cycles but forcing SUPPLY - consumption that is forced, not a real demand. Therefore I see the equation as based on manipulating demand based on supply.
Here's the data, ready? 2+2-2 = 4 Not much more I can say, Housing market in terms of buying is bad. formations are up, but rentals are very high. These are facts. How you draw your conclusion from these facts is entirely up to you.
Having long positions that are underwater and getting emotional over them is not a healthy thing, it creates wealth loss. I hope you are properly hedge. This is the last reply I will offer to your posts, do if you so choose, have the last word and GL! Scott