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  • Thinking About Nelson Peltz's Next Activist Target [View article]
    Really makes the difference. One example, look at what happened with Peltz at DuPont.

    The index funds and retail investors (DuPont had a high level) all went with the company, but Peltz got the mutual funds and active managers. But the fact that retail investors and passive funds owns so much, lost the battle.
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking About Nelson Peltz's Next Activist Target [View article]
    Really depends on what he would do there. More importantly, it depends on the breakdown of institutional ownership - i.e. whether it's more mutual funds, pension funds or index funds, etc.
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pep Boys: Will Things Be Different This Time? [View article]
    It'll be interesting for sure; still wrapping my head around the potential or a competitor buyout given business model differences weighed against warehouse distribution and SGA reduction.
    May 27, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Yahoo (And Alibaba) [View article]
    David, I appreciate the shout out. I didn't participate but did follow your and Chirs' convo on his Yahoo article.

    Your point can't be overstated; investors are attracted to "sexy." And what's sexier than a complex SOTP, spinoff, tax-free, getting paid to invest in the core business, something for free-type of opportunity?

    Now, at these levels, is there an opportunity to make money? You have to know your tax law and probabilities, so we're certainly in Chris' wheelhouse. I still don't like the idea from a risk/reward standpoint.

    Along those lines - I think the risk versus reward here was much narrower, and more symmetrical, than many were guessing. Especially retail investors. When there are so many moving parts and potential outcomes, it's tough to really be able to run through the scenario analysis. So it doesn't come down to valuation - where we could argue all day over whether its core business should be valued at 5x EBITDA or 8x, it's really a story of their being too many known unknowns. Too many moving parts to really say YHOO is worth $X IMO.

    Side (and final) note - in a way, it's really about a new breed of risk - regulation risk - that has been overlooked for much of the last decade. One of the big examples that comes to mind for me is the Erbey complexes (i.e. Ocwen Financial, etc). Regulation risk really is an X factor in the sense that the impact can be tough to model, much less put a probability on. The thing about YHOO is we knew that tax was a risk...
    May 20, 2015. 11:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Handicapping The DuPont Proxy Battle [View article]
    The market has spoken. That is all.
    May 13, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Handicapping The DuPont Proxy Battle [View article]
    That was more the point of this - Kullman shouldn't get all the credit for DD's outperformance over the last six years. It's a cyclical company and has been pushed higher thanks to a rising market. The six years prior to Kullman, DD and its chemical peers grossly underperformed the S&P 500.
    May 13, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Handicapping The DuPont Proxy Battle [View article]
    Close fight - Peltz says he got overwhelming support from mutual funds and institutional investors. Index funds and retail investors voted with DuPont.
    May 13, 2015. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Handicapping The DuPont Proxy Battle [View article]
    Should have clarified that better - but on Peltz's comment, he was being facetious. He was already an investor in DD then, but was making the point that most people still see DuPont as a paint business.
    May 13, 2015. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perry Ellis Has Been Begging For An Activist Situation [View article]
    What's interesting here is that neither CalSTRS nor Legion are "activists;" CalSTRS: Want something done, do it yourself. Old are the days of being passive.
    May 12, 2015. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MagicJack Has Bottomed And Is Primed For A Buyout Or An Activist [View article]
    What's the activist thesis, besides the solid balance sheet? Anybody in mind would could take on a "lost touch" tele company?
    May 6, 2015. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Activist West Face Capital Tells Gran Tierra Energy To Fire Its CEO [View article]
    Thanks for the note, not sure how those two got mixed up. Thanks again.
    Apr 28, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gates' Cascade Is A Big Believer In Luxury Hotels [View article]
    Bit late, but.... if you're still interested shoot me a message.
    Apr 28, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CTPartners: Can Activists Fix Its Image Problem? [View article]
    Not the worst idea. Think it would have to be tactical to not seem like a PR stunt. But really is a boys club there so would need someone with some gall.
    Apr 28, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marcato Capital: Plenty To Be Done At Bank Of New York Mellon [View article]
    +1 one on these thoughts, kind of our Marcato retail thesis in a nutshell.
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Playing Hardball With Corvex [View article]
    The thing is Corex has LPs so they are in and out pretty quickly. They got involved with EQC around $17 and were out at $27 in just over a year's time. What's left is up to Sam Zell.
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment