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  • Equity CEFs: How To Buy The Dow Jones Industrial Average At A 10% Discount And A 6.9% Yield [View article]
    Well, four months later (Sept. 11) the VIX has risen from 12.70 to 23.20 and the SPX has fallen almost 8 percent. The four funds mentioned here should have fallen far less (I don't have the numbers).

    If we believe in index investing, then these funds should be shining now, compared to the correlated indices.
    Sep 13, 2015. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing North Atlantic Drilling's New Contract And What It Means For The Industry [View article]
    Thanks for the news.
    Jul 21, 2015. 12:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    David -- your article #6 doesn't support your view. Written late last year, here is a quote: " . . .the further crude prices fall in the near term, the faster they may rebound."

    He also notes the Saudis don't want their market share and profits to be undermined, and he didn't think prices would drop below $60 a barrel.

    A simple explanation for the crash in prices, which may not explain all of it, is that the Saudis want to eliminate marginal production.

    Oil dropped about 3 percent today, to about $51.50. I'm surprised, but no one can predict the markets.
    Jul 15, 2015. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Biggest Threat Isn't Debt, It's Oil Prices [View article]
    "That deceptive scheme is what accounted for Seadrill's prior unjustified high share price".

    You might be right, but it's a speculative comment. Your use of "deceptive" and "unjustified" imply you don't trust management. The depreciation schedule used is an acceptable, commonly used method, although I agree that a shorter length would be better.

    The speculation is this: SDRL's profits were grossly exaggerated by a "deceitful scheme". In fact, no one knows HOW much they were inflated, if any. It's even more speculative to say that buyers relied on the difference between "actual" and "inflated" profits to send the stock to an "unjustified" price.

    I do, however, appreciate most of your analysis.
    Jul 11, 2015. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Is Not Hero - Why Large Customers Should Keep Large Offshore Drillers Afloat [View article]
    Great article.

    The best part of the RIG monthly report to me was the 24 month extension in the delivery of two ultra-deepwater drillships. Two years is a long time.

    The contract extensions, even though short, are welcome too.

    Any new contract announcment from SDRL, especially one for a deepwater driller, would be a nice surprise.
    Jul 7, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Biggest Threat Isn't Debt, It's Oil Prices [View article]
    Thanks for the specifics, Power Hedge. Great article.

    All the drillers, such as RIG and NE, have been moving up and down together since oil plummeted. Sure, SDRL has more debt, which puts fear into us, but I think we’re overreacting to the debt, in light of some big lenders’ willingness to ease up on the terms. Plus I think oil will recover soon enough.

    Of course, no one knows what oil will do, just as no one knows what the market in general will do, but a lot more reasons exist for oil to rise than to fall more. Any deal with Iran won’t see any oil from the country for over a year.

    JF and his crew are doing an excellent job of navigating through this. When there was a dividend, the bashers criticized him for all the money he was “taking” from “his” company. When he eliminated the dividend, they accused him of lying.

    As I write this, the drillers are seeing a reversal day today (July 7th) to the upside, while oil continues to fall. It’s probably meaningless but it’s fun to watch.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Biggest Threat Isn't Debt, It's Oil Prices [View article]
    Linkdonald, I agree it’s not different, but we’ve already paid a big price, so it WASN'T different. No one knows the future of course, but maybe, just maybe the bottom has been reached and the hard times won’t get worse.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Seadrill's Real Exposure To Petrobras' New 5 Year Spending Cut? [View article]
    The "slaughtered" can go somewhere else if venting is their preference. SA is better off as a forum for what the future holds for SDRL and how long it will take to get there.

    Reasons and informed opinion help more than anything else. Itzik's question of "How did I put myself at this company?" was obviously not looking for an answer (and so the venting), but we might benefit from taking the question at face value and attempting an answer. Then we can decide whether it's beneficial for us to stay.

    In my case, I'm hanging around.
    Jun 30, 2015. 05:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd.: Whatever Happened To Patience? [View article]
    No one knows how long it will take to make that up. (You're sarcasm seems clear to me.) It's also possible it will NEVER be made up.

    However, there are other scenarios that could propel the stock up to previous levels or at least to much higher than it is now. I think that's more likely, so I'm still long. Oil must rise for this to come about.

    If I distrusted management, I'd have left long ago. I've done it before in two other stocks that didn't depend on the price of oil.

    Would I have bought SDRL had I known what would happen to oil and to the drillers? That's a nonsensical question. What will happen in the future is a better question. The stock is risky but I'm still in.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd.: Whatever Happened To Patience? [View article]
    Good article Achilles. Right now, a lot of investors fear Seadrill won’t make it. All the news is bad, oil is stuck in a low range, and the debt is high.

    If even one decent new contract is signed, or a current contract renewed, even at a lower price, this good news will have a dramatic effect. So I’m in for the long haul.
    Jun 19, 2015. 03:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Reiterate My Bearish View After Results [View article]
    Seadrill is in a good position to push back deliveries and refinance debt. Since the outlook is bleak for new contracts, if SDRL should even obtain ONE at a rate high enough to cover both fixed and variable costs, investors would be encouraged. The stock would rise.

    A risky bet, but I'm taking it. I'm a loser here so far, but not a sore loser
    Jun 2, 2015. 11:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: Funds Benefiting From The Weakness In Technology And Small Cap Sectors [View article]
    From the December 2014 Annual Report, there are no option positions in any 2x ETF's such as the ProShares Ultra QQQ or the ProShares Ultra S&P 500.

    The discount to NAV has narrowed sharply to about 6 percent. This is quite helpful because in the last year the NAV has decreased about 3 percent and the market value has risen about the same amount.

    In 2014, all of the distribution was classified as long term capital gain -- rather odd for a fund of this type. The year before, 60 percent was a Return of Capital. At least it wasn't ordinary dividend income.

    I'm still in, but it needs to hold at this level -- 19.09 as of 4/17/15 -- or I'll reconsider and perhaps buy a different option income fund.
    Apr 18, 2015. 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why Not To Worry About The BP Contract Termination [View article]
    Sixshot I think you've got it backwards. The attackers and bashers are mostly on the negative side. The positive side is mostly rational. Feel free to disagree -- that's not an attack, but phrases like "oddest bunch" and "keep pumping" are pejorative terms.
    Apr 2, 2015. 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill And Seadrill Partners: BP Is Terminating The Firm Contract With The West Sirius In GOM [View article]
    Lots of women with "large bosoms" have faithful husbands who don't "lose their head". This is a risky stock (and my metaphor stops here), but oil won't remain this low indefinitely. And Seadrill will last in the meantime.

    I don't think $5 is in the cards, but that's just an educated guess. At least if you short it you won't have a dividend to pay.
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill And Seadrill Partners: BP Is Terminating The Firm Contract With The West Sirius In GOM [View article]
    Stick to what you're confident in. If you've never traded options, I wouldn't sell them the first time out (and personally I hardly ever buy them as a single trade).
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment