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Stone Fox Capital

 
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  • Update: Zoe's Kitchen Q3 Earnings
    Sat, Nov. 22 ZOES Comment!

    Summary

    • Zoe's Kitchen reported Q314 earnings.
    • The stock remains a Strong Buy.
    • The original investment thesis isn't altered with fast growth and an attractive dining concept eventually driving the stock higher.
  • Update: Splunk Q3 '15 Earnings
    Sat, Nov. 22 SPLK Comment!

    Summary

    • Splunk reported Q315 earnings.
    • The stock remains a buy.
    • The original investment thesis anticipated that the Spring sell-off was overdone and that the strong results would lead the stock to rebound.
  • Update: ChinaCache Q3 '14 Earnings
    Fri, Nov. 21 CCIH Comment!

    Summary

    • ChinaCache reported Q314 earnings.
    • Stock remains a strong buy on extremely low valuation.
    • The original investment thesis did not anticipate that the stock would continue trading at an extremely low valuation despite significant growth.
  • Twitter's Logged-Out Visitors Are A Game Changer
    Thu, Nov. 20 TWTR 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Twitter has plenty of growth levers to pull that will drive revenue significantly higher.
    • The logged-out audience total pushes the total consumers of Twitter data towards 800 million monthly visitors.
    • Twitter has a lower forward PS ratio than other Internet giants, suggesting a better value proposition than most think.
  • Jack In The Box Continues Its Winning Ways
    Thu, Nov. 20 JACK Comment!

    Summary

    • Jack in the Box reported strong Q4'14 earnings.
    • Lower energy prices could help fuel reduce the biggest impact to earnings over the last year.
    • The stock appears expensive, but it is valued appropriate for the growth rate and peer group multiples.
  • Update: Lowe's Q3'14 Earnings
    Thu, Nov. 20 LOW Comment!

    Summary

    • Lowe's reported Q3'14 earnings.
    • The stock remains a buy.
    • The strong results were anticipated due to the ongoing large stock buybacks.
  • The Not So Impressive Yields Of AIG
    Wed, Nov. 19 AIG 10 Comments

    Summary

    • AIG reported a solid Q3, with earnings exceeding analyst estimates.
    • BV showed a solid 15% increase over last year's numbers, supported by a stock buyback program.
    • The stock continues to trade substantially below BV, including investments and deferred tax assets suggesting a stronger buyback program.
    • The Net Payout Yields aren't strong enough for an investment.
  • Baidu Remains Cheap Even After Rally
    Wed, Nov. 19 BIDU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The rally in Baidu still leaves the stock trading at a lower PE than its long-term growth rate.
    • Compared to other Internet giants, Baidu is extremely cheap.
    • The price target for Baidu is set at $300.
  • Apple Approaches Price Target Too Quickly
    Tue, Nov. 18 AAPL 107 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple has rallied following the successful iPhone 6 and 6 Plus launches.
    • The rally reduces the future benefit of stock buybacks going forward.
    • With AAPL hitting new highs, investors should consider options for unloading the stock, due to limited upside going forward.
  • Update: Halliburton Agrees To Buy Baker Hughes
    Tue, Nov. 18 HAL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Halliburton buys Baker Hughes for a significant premium.
    • The stock remains a solid buy based on value.
    • The original investment thesis was somewhat compromised based on the lower oil prices, but the ultimate value in Halliburton is further enhanced by this deal.
  • Be Careful With Baker Hughes After The Merger-Related Rally
    Tue, Nov. 18 BHI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Baker Hughes stock rally following the Halliburton merger news is likely to stall for now.
    • The hostile move by Halliburton to nominate a new slate of board members isn't going to move this merger forward in the short term.
    • Enormous valuation creation exists for a combined Halliburton/Baker Hughes that rivals market leader Schlumberger.
  • Update: Nuverra Environmental Solutions Q3 '14 Earnings And CFO Departure
    Mon, Nov. 17 NES 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Nuverra Environmental Solutions reported Q314 earnings.
    • The stock remains one to avoid.
    • As anticipated, the unexpected negatives continue to pop up with this company despite some positives in the quarterly numbers.
  • Update: Marin Software Q3 '14 Earnings
    Sun, Nov. 16 MRIN Comment!

    Summary

    • Marin Software reported Q314 earnings.
    • The stock is a Strong Buy.
    • The original investment thesis continues to play out, with strong operations results so far ignored by the market due to the weak ad tech sector.
  • InvenSense: Making Sense Of The Financials
    Sat, Nov. 15 INVN 27 Comments

    Summary

    • The bottom line frustrations at InvenSense shouldn't overshadow the growth potential.
    • While year-end guidance didn't meet expectations it was still for revenue growth approaching 70%.
    • The sell off due to short-term margin issues provide a solid buying opportunity.
  • Update: Twitter Debt Assigned Junk Status
    Sat, Nov. 15 TWTR 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Standard & Poor's rates Twitter debt as speculative.
    • The stock remains a Strong Buy.
    • While a speculative rating on the debt wasn't anticipated in the original thesis, the long-term potential of the stock is not altered by this move.
  • Is Lowe's About To Peak?
    Sat, Nov. 15 LOW 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Lowe's quarterly earnings next week will provide key insight into whether the stock will continue making new highs.
    • Investors should pay attention to a metric outside the normal comp sales and EPS numbers.
    • The combination of large stock gains and a pricey forward PE ratio could signal a stock about to peak.
  • Update: ExOne Q3 '14 Earnings Produce Another Warning
    Fri, Nov. 14 XONE 5 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne reported Q3 '14 earnings.
    • Investors should sell the stock.
    • The investment thesis is altered by yet another large scale warning by ExOne that was anticipated as a major risk when buying the stock on an oversold bounce.
  • Update: GSV Capital Q3 '14 Earnings
    Fri, Nov. 14 GSVC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • GSV Capital reported Q3 '14 earnings.
    • Stock remains a Strong Buy trading significantly below NAV.
    • The original analysis is further supported by the ability to grow NAV and monetize assets at attractive prices all while the stock trades at a discount.
  • Sprouts Farmers Market: Insider Selling Nearing End Triggers Buy Signal
    Thu, Nov. 13 SFM Comment!

    Summary

    • Apollo Global Management announced intention to complete another stock offering of up to 17.25 million shares.
    • Sprouts Farmers Market trades at a high PE ratio, but the growth rate appears to support the valuation.
    • Sprouts Farmers Market should start rallying as insider selling wraps up.
  • Update: Vodafone Reports Q2 '15 Results
    Wed, Nov. 12 VOD Comment!

    Summary

    • Vodafone reported Q215 results.
    • Stock remains a buy on stabilizing results.
    • Results were anticipated to stabilize and improve as the 4G rollout advances and customers move to the more advanced network.
  • Update: Zoe's Kitchen Q3 '14 Preliminary Estimates And Franchise Purchase
    Wed, Nov. 12 ZOES Comment!

    Summary

    • Zoe's Kitchen reported Q3 '14 preliminary estimates and purchase of Louisiana franchise.
    • Stock remains a Strong Buy.
    • The original investment thesis continues to anticipate that growth will lead to higher stock prices.
  • Update: Time Warner Reports Q3 '14 Earnings
    Tue, Nov. 11 TWX Comment!

    Summary

    • Time Warner reports Q3 '14 earnings.
    • The stock remains a solid buy.
    • The original investment thesis anticipated solid quarterly earnings and the expectation remains that Fox will return with a sweetened bid.
  • Pershing Gold: Catalysts Provide Upside Potential
    Tue, Nov. 11 PGLC 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Junior gold miners are down substantially over the last couple of years due to declining gold prices.
    • Pershing Gold continues to report strong drilling results that could counter the headwinds of lower gold prices.
    • The company appears set to reopen a mine in Nevada next year, providing a strong catalyst for the junior gold miner.
  • Update: DirecTV Q3 '14 Earnings
    Tue, Nov. 11 DTV Comment!

    Summary

    • DirecTV reported Q3'14 earnings.
    • The stock remains a solid buy.
    • The original investment thesis remains intact as investors hold the stock looking to collect the $95 deal value from AT&T.
  • Top 10 Net Payout Yield Stocks For November 2014
    Mon, Nov. 10 HIG, CF, GLW 22 Comments

    Summary

    • The top net payout yield stocks underperformed the market in October.
    • The top ten net payout yield stocks average 13.3% yields to start November.
    • Seadrill now tops the list following a large loss in October.
  • Update: American Capital Q3 '14 Earnings And Split Into Three Companies
    Mon, Nov. 10 ACAS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • American Capital reported Q3 '14 earnings and split up details.
    • Stock remains a buy with NAV solidly above stock price.
    • The attractive split was anticipated to add value, but the complexity of the transaction will possibly delay the value enhancement of the plan.
  • Update: CenturyLink Reports Q3 '14 Earnings
    Sun, Nov. 9 CTL 2 Comments

    Summary

    • CenturyLink reported Q314 earnings.
    • Stock remains a solid buy.
    • The continued progress and strong free cash flow generated by CenturyLink was anticipated and builds on the investment thesis of long-term value.
  • Update: Sprouts Farmers Market Q3 '14 Earnings
    Sun, Nov. 9 SFM 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Sprouts Farmers Market reported Q314 earnings.
    • Investors should avoid the stock.
    • The original investment thesis anticipated strong results, but the warning to investors still holds that the stock is trapped until more insider sales occur.
  • Update: Zynga Q3 '14 Earnings
    Sat, Nov. 8 ZNGA Comment!

    Summary

    • Zynga reported Q3 '14 earnings.
    • Zynga remains a strong buy.
    • The weakness in the stock wasn't anticipated in the original investment thesis, but the company continues on a development path suggesting huge value at the current stock price.
  • Update: Tableau Software Q3 '14 Earnings
    Sat, Nov. 8 DATA Comment!

    Summary

    • Tableau Software reported Q3 '14 earnings.
    • The stock is a tentative buy after the recent rally.
    • The original investment thesis supported investors picking the stock up on dips in anticipation of strong growth going forward.
  • Update: TripAdvisor Q3'14 Earnings
    Fri, Nov. 7 TRIP 2 Comments

    Summary

    • TripAdvisor reported Q314 earnings.
    • The stock recommendation is now on hold.
    • The original investment thesis didn't appreciate the level of expenses by TripAdvisor compared to the market expectations.
  • Stratasys: Don't Fear The Higher Costs
    Fri, Nov. 7 SSYS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Stratasys reports strong Q314 results, but disappoints the market with weak Q4 guidance.
    • Higher costs and lower margins from new acquisitions are likely to trouble investors throughout 2015.
    • The stock will likely re-test the May lows around $85.