Seeking Alpha

Stone Fox Capital

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Stone Fox Capital's Articles BY TICKER:
  • Update: 3D Systems Warns On Q3 '14 Earnings
    Yesterday, 1:14 PM DDD 11 Comments

    Summary

    • 3D Systems releases preliminary Q314 results.
    • Investors should avoid the stock. .
    • The original thesis warned investors to tread lightly into the stock until improved operations despite the more attractive valuation. .
  • Yahoo: Ignore The Headlines, The Q3 '14 Results Were Bad
    Yesterday, 12:11 PM YHOO 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Yahoo reported Q314 numbers that generally beat estimates based on non-repeating items.
    • Operations continue to show negative trends.
    • A big jump in earnings from equity interests provided all of the upside that will drop going forward with the reduced investment in Alibaba.
  • Peabody Energy Still Faces A Tough Coal Industry
    Yesterday, 5:35 AM BTU 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Peabody Energy reported Q3'14 earnings that generally beat estimates.
    • The company continues to forecast an oversupply of coal despite solid global demand.
    • The stock remains beaten down, but it needs catalysts to turn around before it becomes a buy.
  • Update: Lockheed Martin Q3 '14 Earnings
    Tue, Oct. 21 LMT 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Lockheed Martin reported mixed Q314 earnings.
    • Investors should sell the stock with limited upside from these levels.
    • The original investment thesis anticipated that the stock could start facing issues with lower capital returned to shareholders due to the higher stock prices.
  • Update: Verizon Q3 '14 Earnings
    Tue, Oct. 21 VZ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Verizon reports Q314 earnings.
    • Investors should continue avoiding the stock.
    • The pricing pressure in the sector and ability to only add tablet customers was anticipated to impact growth rates going forward.
  • Update: Apple Q4 '14 Earnings
    Mon, Oct. 20 AAPL 51 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple reported Q4'14 earnings.
    • The stock remains a solid buy.
    • The strong results and guidance due to the iPhone 6 were predicted to struggle to have a material impact on the stock.
  • Playing The Oil Slump With Zulily
    Mon, Oct. 20 ZU Comment!

    Summary

    • The slump in oil prices favors top notch retailers.
    • Zulily has a unique online model leading to fast growth.
    • The large stock declines in Zulily makes the stock cheap now that the retail sector has tailwinds.
  • Update: IBM Continues Share Buybacks Despite Q3 '14 Earnings Miss
    Mon, Oct. 20 IBM 22 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM reported Q3 '14 earnings.
    • The stock is even more attractive after the sell-off.
    • The weak earnings were not anticipated, but the large FCF and stock buybacks offset that weakness.
  • Schlumberger Surprises Market With Upbeat Forecast
    Sat, Oct. 18 SLB 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Solid results from Schlumberger surprised the market.
    • Oilfield service firms are likely to maintain growth in an environment of higher production.
    • Oilfield service stocks offer atttractive values now that stocks have declined due to an overabundance of fears.
  • Does Saudi Arabia Hate Sandridge Energy?
    Fri, Oct. 17 SD 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Saudi Arabia offered discounted oil pricing to Asian customers to increase market share.
    • The goal appears to harm marginal producers around the globe including producers in the US.
    • Sandridge Energy appears one of the vulnerable producers in the US with minimal profits from past capital spending plans.
  • Update: Google Misses Q3 '14 Estimates
    Fri, Oct. 17 GOOG, GOOGL Comment!

    Summary

    • Google reported Q3 '14 earnings.
    • Investors should continue avoiding the stock.
    • The continued lack of network site growth and higher operating expenses was anticipated to hurt the stock.
  • Update: Netflix Q3 '14 Earnings
    Thu, Oct. 16 NFLX 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Netflix reported Q314 earnings.
    • Investors should sell the stock trading at 100x current earnings.
    • The higher content costs without the subsequent revenue was anticipated as a major problem for the stock going forward.
  • Is The Growth At Antero Resources Too Fast?
    Thu, Oct. 16 AR 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Antero Resources provided Q3 operations update.
    • Strong production growth in contributing to a natural gas market headed to oversupply.
    • The stock isn't likely to hold up in an environment of lower energy prices.
  • Update: Delta Air Lines Q3 Earnings Report
    Thu, Oct. 16 DAL 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Delta Air Lines reported Q3 '14 earnings.
    • The stock remains a strong buy.
    • The long-term tailwinds in the industry were anticipated to improve the earnings profile, but the short-term impacts of Ebola have been higher than expected.
  • NXP Semiconductor: Perfect Storm Hits Stock
    Wed, Oct. 15 NXPI 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Involvement in the iPhone 6 provides upside to analyst estimates.
    • Microchip warning impact was overblown.
    • NXP Semi now trades at a very compelling valuation after the sell off.
  • Is TripAdvisor Attractive After A Year Of Consolidation?
    Wed, Oct. 15 TRIP 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Large drop in the stock of TripAdvisor over the last two months makes the stock attractive.
    • New initiatives are leading to solid 30% revenue growth and future upside potential.
    • Short-term fears over travel reductions due to Ebola will give way to the benefits of lower oil prices.
  • Yelp: Looking Into 2015
    Tue, Oct. 14 YELP 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Yelp has plenty of catalysts moving into 2015 including lower oil prices that should help prime ad customers.
    • The consumer review site still has a large untapped market.
    • Yelp isn't cheap on normal valuation metrics, but the likelihood of 50% revenue growth makes the stock appealing heading into 2015.
  • Update: Iliad Ends T-Mobile Pursuit
    Tue, Oct. 14 TMUS Comment!

    Summary

    • Iliad ends pursuit of acquiring a large position in T-Mobile.
    • Investors should dump the stock.
    • The original article anticipated that a positive outcome wasn't likely for a T-Mobile sell as time passed due to the ongoing price wars in the domestic wireless market.
  • Zynga: Market Missing Mobile Progress
    Mon, Oct. 13 ZNGA 13 Comments

    Summary

    • New Words With Friends mobile game appears a hit in the making.
    • Zynga is slowly increasing success on mobile games.
    • The stock crashed close to the all-time lows providing for the ultimate long-term entry point due to limited downside risk.
  • Does United Airlines Have 50% Upside?
    Mon, Oct. 13 UAL 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Two major analysts project United Airlines seeing 50% stock gains.
    • The recent September traffic and investor updates were more positive for the legacy airline that tends to struggle.
    • Data suggests the analyst estimates are reasonable and possibly low.
  • Turning Constructive On ExOne
    Fri, Oct. 10 XONE 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Serial disappointer ExOne is now attractive at current valuations.
    • The stock approaches previous buy target around $14.
    • The stock remains highly risky until the company can deliver earnings that beat analyst estimates and company forecasts.
  • Is Hewlett-Packard Really A 3-D Printing Threat?
    Fri, Oct. 10 HPQ 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The split up of HP could lead to a company more focused on 3-D printing.
    • The corporate transition over the next year substantially reduces any threat in the next year.
    • The 3-D printing stocks are more attractive now after the selloff and the likely limited threats from HP to disrupt the market.
  • Spirit Airlines: Investors Should Relax
    Fri, Oct. 10 SAVE 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Spirit Airlines reported disappointing traffic stats for September prompting a stock selloff.
    • The ultra low-cost carrier is still relatively small compared to the legacy airlines.
    • The recent selloff in Spirit Airlines provides opportunity to buy the airline leading the sector in growth.
  • Higher Discretionary Income Provides Catalyst For Mobile Game Developers
    Thu, Oct. 9 GLUU, KING, ZNGA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The slumping oil prices will benefit companies that rely on discretionary spending from consumers.
    • Mobile game developers fall into the category of companies that will benefit from more discretionary income and at the same time are beaten down by the market.
    • The theory offers a catalyst, but isn't a requirement for higher stock prices.
  • Top 10 Net Payout Yield Stocks For October 2014
    Wed, Oct. 8 CF, GLW, IBM 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Top net payout yield stocks underperformed the market in September.
    • The top ten net payout yield stocks average 13.4% yields to start October.
    • CF Industries remains at the top of list despite a large gain due to merger talks with Yara.
  • Update: Hawaiian Airlines Reports September Traffic Numbers
    Wed, Oct. 8 HA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Hawaiian Airlines reported September traffic numbers.
    • The stock remains a strong buy.
    • Improved operations were anticipated from moderating capacity growth.
  • Update: SodaStream Issues Dismal Preliminary Q3 '14 Earnings
    Wed, Oct. 8 SODA 54 Comments

    Summary

    • SodaStream reports disappointing preliminary Q314 numbers.
    • Stock remains a buy on the dip.
    • The sizable warning wasn't anticipated, but the corresponding stock drop creates opportunity.
  • Glu Mobile - Kim Kardashian: Hollywood Heats Up With Update 2.0
    Tue, Oct. 7 GLUU 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Kim Kardashian: Hollywood 2.0 provides rebound for the hit reality game.
    • The franchise model pursued by Glu Mobile is proven out by the ability to prolong the success of this game via an update.
    • At a market cap of $500 million, the stock is cheap, based on the misconception that a mobile game developer can only be successful with a hit game.
  • Update: Zillow's September Metrics Confirm The Trend
    Tue, Oct. 7 Z 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Zillow reported September user metrics.
    • The stock is more attractive but investors shouldn't rush into it until the bottoming out process runs its course.
    • The typical weak sequential user metrics were anticipated to lead these normal seasonal stock declines.
  • Apple: Will Encouraging Initial iPhone 6 Sales Last?
    Tue, Oct. 7 AAPL 45 Comments

    Summary

    • New iPhone 6 phones continue flying out the door.
    • Earnings estimates for FY15 continue creeping higher.
    • The law of larger numbers continues to pressure the upside potential from a very successful production launch and the entry into new categories.
  • Is Twitter Really Worth $64?
    Mon, Oct. 6 TWTR 29 Comments

    Summary

    • A price target of $64 on Twitter makes no sense.
    • Re/code offers interesting companies that Twitter could buy to expand services or improve the existing social media product.
    • Past history suggests large-scale deals that are very successful still don't increase value materially as improving the basic product.
  • Will Freeport-McMoRan Ever Get The Grasberg Mine Straightened Out?
    Mon, Oct. 6 FCX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Freeport-McMoRan continues to struggle with operations at the large Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
    • The company faces a high risk that copper finally rolls over and heads below $3/lb.
    • The stock is increasingly difficult to own in a anti-commodity investment cycle.