Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Stone Fox Capital  

View Stone Fox Capital's Articles BY TICKER:
  • Clean Energy: Don't Fall For The Rally
    Yesterday, 1:44 PM CLNE 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Clean Energy reported Q414 earnings that caused the beaten down stock to rally.
    • The company failed to provide normalized numbers that stripped out on-time benefits.
    • Once investors grasp the normalized numbers, the stock rally is likely to fizzle.
  • Ingersoll-Rand: The High Yields That Led To Substantially Higher Prices
    Sat, Feb. 28 IR Comment!

    Summary

    • Ingersoll-Rand smashed Q414 earnings continuing a trend of strong results.
    • The company started a stock buyback plan in 2011 that has consistently helped boost the stock and results.
    • Though the net payout yields are declining, the 9.1% yield remains strong.
    • A farther decline in the net payout yield from a higher stock price or lower stock buybacks would signal a top in the stock.
  • Seadrill: Positioned To Benefit From Rebalancing
    Sat, Feb. 28 SDRL 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Seadrill reported solid Q414 earnings despite the industry weakness.
    • The offshore driller was able to push out deliveries of a significant amount of newbuild rigs.
    • Stock remains best positioned to benefit from the rebalancing in the rig market.
  • Windstream: What A Difference A Few Months Make
    Sat, Feb. 28 WIN 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Windstream disappoints with Q414 earnings and 2015 guidance.
    • The REIT spin-off is moving forward with little fanfare.
    • The company makes a compelling argument that the REIT alone will obtain a value equal to the current stock price.
  • 3D Systems: Pay More Attention To This, Rather Than Earnings
    Fri, Feb. 27 DDD 44 Comments

    Summary

    • 3D Systems reported dismal Q414 results.
    • The feared threats by HP appear far overstated, based on the distractions from the corporate split.
    • 3D Systems is now attractively valued, but difficult to own until operations improve.
  • Key Takeaways From Chesapeake Energy's Earnings Call
    Fri, Feb. 27 CHK 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Chesapeake reported Q414 results that generally missed analyst estimates and sent the stock down 10%.
    • The company cut the key capital spending levels only 26% from last year while forecasting production growth for 2015.
    • Despite a better balance sheet, the negative cash flow is a major frustration to investors.
  • Lending Club: What Did Investors Expect?
    Thu, Feb. 26 LC 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Lending Club reported Q414 earnings that beat analyst estimates.
    • The stock is trading down due to inline guidance for 2015 and limited discussion on growth from partnerships with Google and Alibaba.
    • The stock turns attractive if it drops to approximately $15.
  • OnDeck Capital: Q4 Earnings Review
    Wed, Feb. 25 ONDK Comment!

    Summary

    • OnDeck Capital beats analyst estimates in initial public earnings report.
    • Balance sheet risk will remain a major concern in the market looking for FinTech stocks with a strong platform.
    • Though several analysts have higher price targets, it doesn't appear that OnDeck will quickly achieve those targets based on risk prospects.
  • Home Depot: Stock Gains Leading To Declining Yields
    Wed, Feb. 25 HD 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Home Depot reported strong Q4 comp sales and smashed analyst estimates.
    • The company announced a large stock buyback authorization for the next three years, along with a dividend hike.
    • The stock price continues to surge, reducing the associated yields despite the huge capital allocation strategy.
  • Key Takeaways From Diamond Offshore's Contract Terminations
    Wed, Feb. 25 DO Comment!

    Summary

    • Diamond Offshore filed a 10-K on contract terminations.
    • The majority of the rigs are 40 years old, providing mostly an impact to Diamond Offshore and not the industry.
    • The stock remains one to avoid, based on a fleet that still includes too many outdated rigs.
  • T-Mobile: Has It Really Turned The Corner On Profits?
    Wed, Feb. 25 TMUS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • T-Mobile smashed analyst estimates for Q414.
    • The ability to constrain costs while growing revenue led to higher margins.
    • The wild quarterly swings and questioned ability to hit profit targets make the stock difficult to own at the current lofty P/E multiples.
  • NetApp: Yields Trump Low Guidance
    Tue, Feb. 24 NTAP Comment!

    Summary

    • NetApp missed FQ3 earnings and guided down for the current quarter.
    • The stock slumped despite high yields and a large stock buyback program.
    • Investors should use dips in stocks with high net payout yields as buying opportunities.
  • Virgin America: Attractive Normalized Numbers
    Tue, Feb. 24 VA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Virgin America reported Q414 earnings that most financial sites saw as a beat whether or not that was actually the case.
    • High levels of fuel hedges provide more protection compared to other airlines suggesting the analyst estimates are more normalized.
    • The stock appears attractively priced compared to the industry.
  • Under Armour: Huge Curry Success Not Enough For Now
    Tue, Feb. 24 UA 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The failure to obtain an endorsement deal with Kevin Durant is working out to the benefit of Under Armour.
    • The runaway success of Steph Curry is helping kickstart the movement of the company into the lucrative basketball footwear segment.
    • Even huge success from Steph Curry won't likely move the needle in a meaningful way in the short-term leaving Under Armour trading at a lofty valuation.
  • 3D Systems: Bankruptcy And Goodwill Impairments Aren't The Real Threats
    Mon, Feb. 23 DDD 17 Comments

    Summary

    • 3D Systems faces many threats in the 3D printer market, but goodwill charges and bankruptcy aren't part of that discussion.
    • A large goodwill writedown could occur with the Q4 report.
    • Valuation metrics are turning more positive after starting 2014 at outrageous levels.
  • Williams Companies: Dividend Growth Remains Strong
    Sat, Feb. 21 WMB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Williams cuts dividend growth for the next three years.
    • The stock is down 20% from its highs, due to a reduced outlook and an irrational stock price last summer.
    • Dividend growth remains solid, especially for a low interest rate environment.
  • Zynga: Don't Throw In The Towel Yet
    Sat, Feb. 21 ZNGA 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Zynga disappointed the market with both reported Q4 bookings and guidance for Q1 bookings.
    • The transition to mobile continues to progress while the web business is seeing a significant slowdown.
    • Enterprise value is now less than $1 billion despite encouraging mobile trends.
  • SolarCity Q4 Review: Negative Trends Continue
    Fri, Feb. 20 SCTY 29 Comments

    Summary

    • SolarCity reported Q4 earnings that missed analyst targets.
    • A couple of negative trends continue to pop up.
    • The stock isn't likely to gain traction without proper resolution of these negative trends.
  • Kohl's: Is The Buyback Benefit Over?
    Thu, Feb. 19 KSS 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Kohl's turned flat revenue into yearly earnings growth due to a large stock buyback program.
    • The retailer is trading at multi-year highs despite the less than thrilling earnings growth.
    • The stock gains are limiting the stock buyback benefits just as some risks mount on the horizon.
  • Seadrill Even Leads Sector In Capital Distribution Plans
    Thu, Feb. 19 SDRL 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Transocean dividend cut proves that Seadrill appropriately paused the dividend three months ago.
    • The aggressive dividend cut by Seadrill provides more opportunity for management to allocate capital for long-term benefits.
    • The disconnect between earnings cuts and stock losses in the sector provide a great buying opportunity for Seadrill.
  • Zillow: Merger Impact On Seasonal Trends
    Wed, Feb. 18 Z 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Zillow surprised the market by reporting Q4'14 earnings after the market close on Friday while not providing numbers for Trulia.
    • Notification of FTC approval allows for closure of the Trulia merger on Feb. 17.
    • With the jump in the stock price, investors should look for a dip after the closing of the merger to buy Zillow prior to the normal seasonal gains.
  • Stock Split Could Doom Visa
    Wed, Feb. 18 V 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Stock splits can create a market topping event.
    • The recent history of the stock split of MasterCard should discourage investors buying Visa at all-time highs.
    • Visa trades at a lofty multiple based on operating margins that don't provide an attractive risk versus reward scenario.
  • Baidu: Don't Fear Mobile Transition
    Tue, Feb. 17 BIDU 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent slump in the stock price of Baidu leaves the stock trading at an attractive PE ratio.
    • Compared to other Internet giants, Baidu continues to trade extremely cheap.
    • The price target for Baidu remains at $300 as the mobile transition will begin paying off during 2015.
  • Seadrill: Another Temporary Setback To Buy
    Sun, Feb. 15 SDRL 74 Comments

    Summary

    • Seadrill suffers another temporarily setback with the expected renegotiation of dayrates on two rigs with Petrobras.
    • The good news is that another $1.1 billion contract with Petrobras is going forward at the contracted rates.
    • The beaten down stock trades at an attractive multiple even if the earnings forecasts for 2015 plunge from the current $2.74 estimate down to $2.00.
  • Bank Of America: Embrace The Latest Regulatory Issue
    Sat, Feb. 14 BAC 43 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America hit by another regulatory concern.
    • The actual numbers suggest that the headlines over dramatized a small business unit with minimal impact to the bank.
    • The positives are that journalist and regulators are reaching the bottom of the barrel of legal issues if the tax-avoidance financing is the best unearthed lately.
  • CenturyLink: Ominous Signs
    Sat, Feb. 14 CTL 2 Comments

    Summary

    • CenturyLink reported Q414 results that continued some negative trends.
    • The telecom giant continues to produce substantial free cash flow despite a lack of growth.
    • The stock has downside protection with a 5.5 dividend yield and a large approved stock buyback plan.
  • FireEye: Pay Attention To These Negative Trends Before Buying
    Sat, Feb. 14 FEYE 55 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors need to ignore the headlines and pay attention to the negative trends.
    • FireEye is benefiting from increased cyber security threats, but the company isn't proving that it costs a reasonable amount to close the sales deals.
    • Outstanding shares continue to surge.
    • The stock was down significantly from the highs providing the juice for the current rally.
  • Spirit Airlines: Don't Ignore Costs
    Fri, Feb. 13 SAVE 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Spirit Airlines reported Q4 earnings growth of over 40%, yet some in the market focused on the headline revenue miss.
    • The airline remains one of the strongest operators in the industry with strong growth and cost controls.
    • Stock remains cheap compared to growth potential.
  • American Airlines To Benefit From Buybacks
    Fri, Feb. 13 AAL 39 Comments

    Summary

    • American Airlines stock is down due to weak January traffic numbers.
    • The airline expects to generate attractive margins of at least 12% despite the disappointing traffic.
    • American accelerated the original stock buyback and authorized $2 billion more to spend due to the extremely cheap stock.
  • Motorola Solutions: Leveraging Stock Buybacks While Waiting For A Buyout
    Wed, Feb. 11 MSI 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Bloomberg reports that Motorola Solutions is up for sale.
    • The technology company easily surpassed Q4 earnings estimates.
    • The solid dividend yield and huge stock buyback provide plenty of reasons for waiting around for a rewarding deal.
  • Citigroup: Capital Return Plans To Spark Stock Gains
    Wed, Feb. 11 C 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup remains a cheap stock with several catalysts to higher stock prices.
    • Analysts are forecasting a sizable stock buyback plan as part of the capital plan submitted to the Fed.
    • Citigroup appears primed to turn regulatory headwinds into stock buyback tailwinds.
  • Diamond Offshore - Stock Rebounding From Dividend Cut Is Bullish
    Tue, Feb. 10 DO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Diamond Offshore reported Q414 earnings that exceeded analyst estimates.
    • The offshore driller cut the special dividend that had become a staple over the last decade.
    • The stock reaction to this news suggests the market has now built in reasonable expectations for the sector.