Stone Fox Capital

Valero (VLO) to close its refinery in Delaware City, Del., taking a charge of $1.7B-1.8B, or about $2/share. The refiner will shed about 550 jobs - and operating expenses of some $450M. Shares +1.6% to $16.62.

if it requires a nearly $2B charge, why shutdown the unit. The recession is ending and demand will return. VLO seems to be chasing instead of leading.

Cloud Peak IPO Piques Our Interest

Explain why the other coal stocks have more then doubled? They also trade at PEs above 20 and CLD will have a PE around 8. CLD is cheap compared to the market.

Copper Demand: Not as Weak as You Think

You also got to take into context that the world just went through the worst financial crisis in 70 years and that US consumption is probably at a low point. Housing construction could easily double next year. Thats why copper prices are high. Its not based on supply today or next month. Its based on demand over the next 10 years.

If you owned copper would you want to sell it today or 5 years from now? Most people would rather hold.


On Nov 19 06:11 PM Greg Merrill wrote:

> Have you noticed copper inventories at the LME? The demand better
> occur quickly or we will be swimming in copper and prices will drop.

Cloud Peak IPO Piques Our Interest

wow... CLD prices below the range. Very odd considering the demand for commodities.

Cloud Peak Energy Hopes Investors Will Warm to IPO

Rio needs the cash. Thats why the IPO is such a good deal... distressed seller.

Supply Side for Copper: A Game Changer in 2010?

agree. Supplies never seem to come online as fast as expected. If it was, the world would be flooded with people selling copper at over $3.

Dr. Copper Spots a Monster Crash

or maybe its just a monster increase in demand. Everybody knows demand will outstrip supply as the economy heats up.

The Decade's Top 25 Stocks

so likely the worst performers next decade?

After making big moves into gold earlier in the year, John Paulson is launching a fund to buy shares of miners and other related investments and derivatives, with an eye to outperforming gold prices. Paulson reportedly has up to 10% of his $30B under management in gold-related investments and will invest up to $250M of his own in the new fund.

interesting how he played financials as a contraian but now he's playing gold by following the herd. And in the case of this fund, he seems way behind the market.

iShares Diversified Alternative Trust ETF Seeks Alpha

interesting, but it sure seems like the type of investment where you'd want to see a track record.

Tactical Asset Allocation Based on the Yield Curve

apparently the Yield Curve relationship broke down at the end of the 2000s. Until then the YC method was beating the Momentum method. For whatever reason, in the 2000s stocks began reacting differently to rate changes.


On Nov 16 01:46 PM WorldBeta wrote:

> Updated charts here:
>
> www.mebanefaber.com/20.../

Tax Loss Carry-Backs: Economic Puzzler of the Day

what about banks? Won't they benefit as well.

Tactical Asset Allocation Based on the Yield Curve

it also appears that the dynamic of the last 2 cycles is different then historical norms. Maybe the fed is more reactive now and behind the curve. The more they lowered rates the last 2 recessions the lower the market went.

Tactical Asset Allocation Based on the Yield Curve

really think the 0-2% range could be expanded to include whether the yield is expanding or contracting. I've noticed that stocks do much better when contracting. Its probably counter intuitive but basically the economy is doing better then the fed can raise rates/lower yield curve. Finally though the Fed chokes off growth as the yield curve gets to 0 and stocks suffer.

Would assume a big different in bonds as well with rising or falling rates.

New CEO Bodes Well for Kona Grill

Interesting volume today. 75K was the highest since back in June and since it likely had nothing to do with this article means that somebody is poking around.