Stone Fox Capital

With Baidu (BIDU) disrupted by an ad system switch, Google (GOOG) may finally have an opening to try to make inroads in China, one of the few places where awareness of the search leader is low (see chart).

Why would an advertiser switch to GOOG b/c BIDU is moving to a better system? Not sure I even buy BIDUs assertion that they'll lose revenue short term. Stuff happens too fast on the internet to lose customers for months just b/c your not certain about the new platform.

Buy Bronco Drilling on Continental Resources Rig Expansion Plan

the report on Oct utilization reminded me that i was suppose to respond back. The 31% confirmed the CC that business is picking up. Of the 45 (now 46) rigs they had, 21 of the them are now working or 45%. Remember that 9 were transferred to the Mex JV. Its a little confusing on how that move impacts the financials, but it should be good that they've double the rigs being used.

China May Be Eying Metallurgical Coal Acquisition

seems very unlikely because ANR is still way below it record high last year. Shareholders aren't going to let it go at these levels.

Four Charts from BP's Statistical Review of World Energy

Some of the companies that will benefit from the growth in African reserves would be the cellphone providers in Africa such as MICC or the deepwater drillers such as RIG or ATW.


On Nov 09 11:59 AM Alan Young wrote:

> Very useful info. Two salient points:
>
> 1. Asia has doubled its use of coal in 10 years, while the rest of
> the world has remained flat.
>
> 2. The proportion of proven oil reserves is slipping away from the
> Middle East and Asia, while leaping upward in Africa.
>
> There must be an investment thesis or two waiting to be formed from
> this, plus a few other data points.

Contrary to the Conference Board's rosy outlook this morning, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg says unemployment may hit a post-war high of 13% as growth stagnates. "This is going to be the mother of all jobless recoveries. At the beginning of the year, who was calling for unemployment to go up to 10%?"

Has he lost his mind? As there ever been a jobless recovery when unemployment soared above 10%? Why do we even listen to him? Hes not even based in the US anymore. Shouldn't be focus on the Canadian economy?

U.S. Employment Picture Remains Ugly

also notice how the jobs gains always match the job losses. Big job losses are followed by big job gains. Small job losses are followed by ever so famous jobless recovery. The recovery is always a function of the amount of losses and the ultimate unemployment rate. So its gonna be different this time? Yeah right!

U.S. Employment Picture Remains Ugly

lagging indicator pretty much better then expected. Its nice that you guys are wasting your time on the rearview and trying to pretend like this time its different. lol

Global Markets in Review: Is the Risk Trade Back On?

Every economic graph shows a V shaped recovery so why does everybody continue to fight reality?

Buy Bronco Drilling on Continental Resources Rig Expansion Plan

haven't been able to listen to the Q yet so I'm not sure. The numbers were just slightly lower then expected and not a big deal b/c it was the trough Q. Q3 utilization was 23% and Sept was 24%. The Mex deal kicks in 6 rigs during Oct/Nov and the market in general such as what CLR is doing is really picking up. So the question is how quickly they get back to the 80% level or at least to breakeven so that the book value is investable? Clearly they didn't say enough on the CC, but the stock did hold up from filling the gap. I'll post more after I listen to the call.

Painful Unemployment Report

lagging indicators... not much else to say about that

Futures tick down on disappointing nonfarm payrolls data indicating double-digit unemployment is here for the first time in 26 years. Some profit-taking is likely in order after yesterday's across-the-board rally. Benchmark S&P futures -0.1% to 1056.

don't see how it was disappointing. Only lost a net 100K jobs. The Oct number will likely be decreased dramatically over the next couple of months. Now the unemployment rate is a joke. Shouldn't be jumping ..4% on 100K job losses.

CVS Caremark (CVS) was trading up premarket after reporting record earnings, but a conference call later had worse news: Its unit for managing pharmacy benefits lost $3.7B in contracts and reported its margins would shrink 10%. Shares down 20.1%.

So who got the business?

The Fed's statement didn't hold a lot of intrigue, so let Karl Denninger translate it for you: "We successfully talked some people into rebuilding inventory and spending money they don't have. Suckers."

Who rebuilt inventory? Inventory numbers continue to drop!

The Entry Point Market Investors May Be Missing

I'll take the opposite side of that trade. When everybody expects an outcome such as a W recession it isn't likely to happen.


On Nov 04 06:18 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> dfh The scariest costume I saw on Halloween worn by a kid dressed
> as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Listening to all of the gnashing
> of teeth and hand wringing after the Friday close about broken trend
> lines, accelerating downside volume, and crisscrossing moving averages,
> you would think that a time machine had just magically transported
> us back to the dark days of March, 2009. The volatility index (VIX)
> has popped from 20% to 30% in a week. Impressive. A new CNBC poll
> says that two thirds of investors are now expecting a “W” shaped
> recession, and that the next big move in the market is down. Once
> all of the performance chasers finally got the equity weightings
> they should have had last March, the market could only go down. We
> cut through support in the S&P 500 at 1050 like a hot knife through
> butter. Next stop: 980. Then hold your breath.

S&P is reviewing whether to strip Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A +1.3%) of its top AAA credit rating after Warren Buffett's company agreed to buy Burlington Northern (BNI). The ratings firm says the deal will decrease liquidity and capital adequacy at Berkshire's insurance operations.

If Berkshire isn't AAA, then i don't know how anybody would be.