Stone Fox Capital

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

Good analysis. The economic news was bullish today especially with the Chicago PMI coming in at 54. For whatever reason, the market got extremely spooked today. Might see some follow thru next week, but it won't last. The FED will keep rates low for a lot longer if needed and the economic numbers will keep rolling in very positive. The bearishness in this market is chart topping. The NYMO may actually post a lower number then last Oct. That is incredible as the economy has turned and isn't falling off a cliff like last year.

$200 Oil Is Coming While We Waste a Perfectly Good Crisis (Part 3)

The energy policy of the US is beyond inept. I'm all for free markets, but we shouldn't be so naive to allow our security to be threatened by relying on foreign sources. Oil has bubbled above $50 because the markets know that nobody is prepared for the resumption of oil demand. Just about every oil producing nation has cut back on exploration and production just at the time that long term demand is likely to spike. This recession won't last forever.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

The negativity of the comments tells you everything you need to know about investor sentiment and the fact that this market will continue to rally. SP500 at 1,200 to 1,300 is where the market is headed with little to know resistance.

Look at any poll on websites and the majority still expects the market to be lower. Load up!

In Praise of Suze Orman

Some times I watch her show just too feel better about myself. Do grownups really need to call Suze to see if they can afford a LCD TV?

Due for a Correction? Market Is Already Priced for Grim Future

Agree that a reduction in pessimism is the reason for the rally and it has nothing to do with anything bullish that is about to occur. The PE ratio based on earnings next year is likely sub 15 now and not at all expensive. Anybody throwing around high PE ratios is insanely ignorant of investing common sense. Would you pay for what somebody made last year or what they will make next year?

Cover to Cover: Drowning in Cheap Oil Forever

Thanks for pointing that out. It's incredible how useful magazine covers are for contraian bets. Guess they always state the obvious for the sheep that read the mag. Incredible!

Wells Fargo's Record Quarter - Really?

End of the rally? LOL. How could you construe record profits as negative? WFC made it clear that the divy was cut in order to invest the money. With 4% net margin interest why wouldn't they? Do you really want your dividend when it could be raking in the profits? Buffett warned everybody in several interviews that WFC was doing great and nobody listened. Instead, people still want to call them donkeys. Go back to listening to Roubini.... Isn't WFC supposedly insolvent? LOL!!!

Average P/E Ratio by Decade

Missing interest rates as well. PE is a nice number, but markets never make sense if you just use the trailing number. Looking at 2011 the PE drops to sub 12. Considering interest rates are the lowest on record, it makes a higher natural.

What were the forward PEs?

WSJ Weighs in on Peter Schiff

Schiff is kinda like Roubini in a way that they both may have been correct about the financial and housing pain in the US, but neither have benefited from it. They really aren't any different then me if that I expected some weakness in the US due to the housing market, but I never expected this level of destruction.

In the end, all that matters is your performance. They both have talked down this market and haven't benefited, therefore, they've been given way too much credit. Talk is cheap, results speak very loud!

Madoff's Investors Don't Deserve Compensation or Sympathy

they should get what they can recover or the limits on the SIPC. Nothing more, nothing less. Thats what investor protection is for and anything above that the investor knows is at risk. These supposed rich people should know better.

Rising Number of Renters Could Spell Trouble for Consumer Price Index

Personally i don't understand why CPI even factors rising rents and housing prices that way. W had massive inflation distorted in the mid 2000s b/c the CPI didn't accurately account for the cost of housing. The numbers need to be configured differently.

A Few Thoughts on the Upcoming Auto Sector Implosion

It might be beneficial for Ford, but they might just end up in a competitive disadvantage once the smoke clears. GM will have the benefit of shedding costs in BK and likely emerge unscaved after the dust settles. This is pretty much how it works in other industries. The non-BK company of debt laden industries whether airlines or telecom always has a competitive disadvantage. As long as the govt does a good job of structuring the BK so that little disruption takes place consumers will end up flocking back to GM products b/c they'll likely be seen as much more stable going forward. They just need to make it thru the interim b/c I sure wouldn't buy a new GM car until the dust settles.

Chesapeake Energy CEO in Questionable Compensation Deal

This shouldn't be too surprising coming from a guy that was buying company stock on margin. Then, you've got the issues with gas wells that he owns outside or jointly with the company. That's a clear conflict of interest. CHK has some clear issues with controlling the CEO. Kinda reminds me of Bernie Ebbers at WCOM.

The other day I read an article that CHK was still hiring people even in this economy. They clearly have some great assets, but they could be headed to where somebody else gets to explore them. When buying CHK, you're basically buying a high risk trading and exploration company. One likely to fall hard if gas prices stay this low much longer.

"After watching the Liddy debacle on C-SPAN, it has become painfully clear to me that our federal government is a joke. Those jerks were personally attacking a man working very hard to pull our collective butts out of the fire, all at great risk to his reputation, and for only $1 per year. I was angered and saddened."

Congress is a joke. We own AIG. Why are we trying to destroy it now?

Fair Value for the S&P: It's Not 440

Maybe normalized earnings are difficult to figure out, but its amazing how crazy people are getting. They act like every recession is going to last forever and everything has changed this time. Its different now. I've seen pleny of charts that show earnings have consistently grown on a normalized basis for the last 50+ years. You've got periods above trend growth like the 90s and below like now. In the end, normalized growth would be roughly $100 for the S&P500. Slap a 15 PE on that and we're back to the old highs.

Just amazes me how people over react at the top and bottom.