Stone Fox Capital

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

When a comment suggests that the market will retest March lows and gets a +30 score it sure makes me wonder about the market actually being at a top. Everybody is so bearish?


On Aug 29 02:11 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> This is not a surprise -- but I appreciated reading it. We are near
> a top and we will test March lows. Denial is not a fundamental strength.
> And companies with declining earnings are not necessarily a good
> value. I'd rather own a company with a high PE and rising earnings
> than a company with a low PE and declining earnings. In the case
> of this market, we have mostly companies with a high PE and declining
> earnings. That's a very dangerous market condition.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

The negativity of the comments tells you everything you need to know about investor sentiment and the fact that this market will continue to rally. SP500 at 1,200 to 1,300 is where the market is headed with little to know resistance.

Look at any poll on websites and the majority still expects the market to be lower. Load up!

While Citigroup Jumps on John Paulson's Investment, AIG Jumps on Anything

assets are gaining value and the CEO is talking about profits. Who knows if the current price is justified, but its moving b/c people in the know have access to positive data. The INTC news today is a prime example of how the economy is getting much, much better then people thought. The plant is starting to bloom!

10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom

Toward Friday, everybody predicted that the rally had ended. Nobody was predicting the bottom. Not on Friday and not on March 9th. Think most of the assumptions in this artilce are flawed especially the bottom picking and the hope. Nobody had hope on the 9th. Heck, my coworker today said that she wasn't putting any more money into the market. Need to find out when she gets back in b/c that'll be the time to get out.

What to Buy and Why: Barron's 2009 Roundtable, Part II

MacAllaster has the most interesting picks. Both HIG and PRU are compelling at these levels.

Bill Ackman Piled Into Wachovia and AIG Shares

Well it was difficult to glean all the information on the remaining WB businesses. Helps to have a staff that can research in more detail. For one, i thought the stock was worth 3-5 bucks but i wasn't at the time aware of the tax loss benefit. It pays to have connections or staff that can figure that out for you.

What's Wrong with the AIG Bailout Model?

Agree with Rigged. Why did the govt get 80% of the company for giving them a credit line? What bank gets those rates? If we went that route for other companies, the market would tank 20% and the economy would be in a depression. How does letting markets become illiquid help the economy? Being insolvent like LEH is a different story.

The Greatest Short Sale in History

The govt is hardly spending any money to rescue the system. Most of it is just investments. They'll get the money back from AIG and the $700B proposal. The govt is hardly bailing out anybody so I don't get the dollar weakness/inflation story.