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  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    Seeker137,
    Why would they come back if all their friends have moved on? Thats absolute non-sense. Longs need to take off their rose colored glasses. These teens are never coming back. No social network whether in person or online has ever reclaimed users! Period!
    Jan 17, 2014. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    sameer13,
    really you want your uncle and aunt to see all the stuff you 'Like' on FB?? With my 60+ parents joining the site I've run into the same issue as a 15 yr old. Don't exactly want to 'like' that racy joke now. My desire to use FB to its fullest extent is diminished b/c of the parent issue.
    Jan 17, 2014. 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    Brucejfern,
    Advertisers won't stick around as traffic dies down.
    Jan 17, 2014. 12:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    Scott Ryan,
    Its nice to live in denial and pretend like the 7M teens leaving don't become 20M teens than 100M people in total. Why do you make the assumption that 1B people will continue using the service? Why do you assume that the teens aren't the tip of the iceberg?

    Its crazy that teens are fleeing the service, but we're suppose to assume nobody else will do the same. My network of friends maxed out usage around 2012 along with my usage on the site. By the way I'm 42. My time is now spent on Twitter. My wife spends her time on Pinterest. FB is only a catch all for the limited about of connections we still have only via FB, but thats being replaced on a daily basis.
    Jan 17, 2014. 12:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    Ol Blue,
    Investing is about predicting the future and not reliving the past. The demographics table tells me that most of the age groups are about maxed out and about to head down if the 13-24 age groups are any indication. If you buy the stock at this valuation your betting that FB keeps adding domestic users. The math doesn't work.

    Social networks work like dominoes. Once one person leaves, than the next one, and the next one. Its not going to stop.
    Jan 17, 2014. 12:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    xilef,
    So you are denying that a teen issue exists? My 15 yr old stepson doesn't get on FB either now. He doesn't want his mom to dare tag him in a photo either.

    Its a reality and question of value. I've yet to see one long come up with a reasonable value for $7B of revenue. Name another service that lost all of its original users and still traded for 20x revenue?
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    calikym,
    That is the type of devastating scenarios that is going to crush FB. To go from 1,000 friends to not using it kills the mins of usage. The question is whether ur 16 old still counts as a DAU/MAU if his posts to Instagram are auto posted to FB??? The only way FB can claim to not have a teenager issue is to still count him as a user b/c he posts something to the site.

    The question on Instagram is interesting. It wouldn't matter if he transitioned all of his time and FB was monetizing it at the same rate. At this point, FB isn't monetizing Instagram so it is a lost. The other issue is that most teens are spreading out time between Instagram, Twitter, and SnapChat. In essence, FB use to get 100% of the time and now it gets say 40% and the 40% is monetized at a lower rate. The other big issue I'd have as an investor paying 20x revenue is that how long will it be before they leave Instagram? If ur 16 yr old doesn't get on FB, are you going to get on Instagram setting off the desire to flee to a new social site.
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    beautidoc,
    To make it all work, Facebook has to lure its more than one billion users back to keep using the service on a consistent basis..... that sums it up. The article tells me to short FB. Teens aren't coming back and the college crowd is now leaving. What advertisers are going to show up when the traffic declines? Not one long has provided a reason why people in the 30 and 40s will keep using the service other than a random utility.
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    The college alumni increase is more a factor of people actually imputing that data such as the older crowd. I seriously doubt they didn't have college alumni in the past.

    If FB isn't cool as a teenager, why would a person circulate back to it at 25. Why won't they move the new friends to SnapChat or Twitter or whatever? Either way, it does FB no good if a person is dragged back to FB to make a 1 min note. Teens aren't going to suddenly start using religiously 60 mins a day. By the way, the longs need a teen to use it 60 mins a day to justify the valuation. It ain't going to happen though.
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    It sure rakes in the revenue though.
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    Underwater how? Find a article where I actually shorted the stock and held. The warning all a long last year was that the stock could irrationally trade higher. My thesis has been absolutely 100% accurate. The stock trader higher and the teens are leaving in droves making for the perfect short. The question still remains whether its now or after Q4.

    Investors can stay irrational for a very long time.
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Teen Issues Magnified [View article]
    I'd probably cover if it breaks above $58.50 looking for a higher price to re-short. On the low side, I'm looking to hold it until it breaks down could be till it hits $20.
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Facebook Worth As An Internet Utility? [View article]
    Today's action looking very bearish. Hit new all-time high and now selling off.
    Jan 9, 2014. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Facebook Worth As An Internet Utility? [View article]
    Struggling at 58 today... very key pivot point
    Jan 8, 2014. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Facebook Worth As An Internet Utility? [View article]
    Fred,
    What has FB innovated in the last couple of years that makes the site better now? Its only focus now is on ads.

    You don't market to teens so your viewpoint on marketing isn't all that valid yet. What happens when the 25 to 40 crowd disappears.

    The biggest mistake the longs are making is the assumption that traffic on FB will continue growing forever. The only person I know that used the site more in 2013 than 2012 is my over 60 parents. Doesn't provide a lot of upside.
    Jan 8, 2014. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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