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Stone Fox Capital Advisors is a registered investment advisor founded in 2010. The firm offers portfolio management with a focus on opportunistic stocks providing secular growth trends at an affordable value. An emphasis is placed on fundamental analysis though charts are used for timing entry... More
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Stone Fox Capital
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  • The Lagging Tween

    Maybe this Tween just isn't that good in school or maybe the market knows something that we don't. Tween Brands (TWB) has greatly underperformed the market in this huge rally. Both pre-tween retailers GYMB and PLCE have both rebounded strongly over their 200ema and even hated retailers like SHLD, JCP, and M are all above those marks as well. Then why is TWB now even below the 20/50ema's? On a valuation basis, this stock provides a compelling story. Even on a business plan basis, this stock seems much more attractive then the other mentioned stores. Just using the most common comparisons of GYMB and PLCE, the movement away from the mall seems to give them a leg up. Maybe the market seess execution risk in moving from the Limited Too mall brand to just a Justice only brand. The Q4 margins were probably a good reason to pause, but most of that issue was related to the sell out of the Liimited Too clothing line.

    TWB has been a very well run company for a while now so it seems illogical to think they'll struggle to escape this downturn worst off then others. They seem like a good bet with support at $2. We purchased shares in our fund unfortunately prior to the huge selloff and we are looking to add more at these levels.

    Tags: TWB
    Apr 21 12:55 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Riverbed options Popping

    Pete Najarian at Optionsmonster thinks this is an earnings options play. I'm not so sure about that.

    • Riverbed Technology(RVBD Quote) options are drawing heavy call activity ahead of its earnings report next week.

    The evidence just doesn't suggest the earnings play. For the May 20s to be profitable, it'd take one huge earnings run. Maybe the 17.50s as that'd only require a 30% move. More likely is that somebody is placing a bet on the CSCO rumor of a buyout. I'm not really in favor of a deal at these levels as I'd rather ride RVBD back to old highs in the 50s if market willing then cash out at 20 with the economy just now turning. Mabye CSCO has come knocking with a rich premium in the 22-25 range. Otherwise, I don't see a deal being tempting enough to management so this option play seems off base. Other then that, we're really just talking about RVBD making the 20s based on the market recovery and that just doesn't seem likely either after a big run. I'd be all over a June/July 20s option, but May 15th needs a CSCO buyout.

    Is the rumor actually real this time? Hmm.... the options market sure thinks so.

    Tags: RVBD
    Apr 17 5:07 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Time to cash out!

    Surprising to see the whole company sold for only $24 today. The deal isn't too bad considering that the stock was trading in the mid-teens last month and the offer leaves most investors in the money over the last 18 months. Thats something you can't say with most stocks. Still it's disappointing to see them sell out so low.

    • The purchase price will be up to $1.2 billion if all outstanding shares are tendered. EBay said it has already clinched agreements to purchase at least 67% of the Gmarket's shares.

    We cashed in our shares today at $23.80 based on the news. Now is the time to take your profits and move on regardless of whether you think the price is fair. Don't really see anybody coming in with a higher bid since the likes of YHOO aren't interested. Best bet is to take your profits and buy MELI on a dip.

     

     

    Tags: GMKT
    Apr 16 11:43 AM | Link | Comment!
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