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  • An Argument For Gold 'Value' $4000 Plus [View article]
    They whole point is that they are not backed by gold. The question was what if they had to be ... how much paper is out there versus gold out there.
    Nov 1 12:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Conditions For Gold [View article]
    Yes, the debt problem is horrible, and when interest rates rise it will be so much worse. The debt is small compared to the unfunded promises.

    For the debt alone, here is a link to our blog where we have a chart showing the size of the federal debt to the size of the federal receipts since 1947.

    http://bit.ly/X7JSZb

    We are not at the levels we had coming out of WW II and that took 30 years to work off -- and that was when we were top dog, and did not have all these unfunded promises.

    It would be a major leap however, to predict when and how that will all be unwound, and just how that results in deflation or inflation, and how gold will be viewed in that context. I'll leave that one for people with better crystal balls than mine.
    Feb 13 08:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument For Gold 'Value' Of $1100 [View article]
    Then I suggest you stop reading SA articles. Who is the greater fool, the authors who you say know nothing, or you who spend your precious time on earth reading what you consider to be worthless content.
    Nov 3 02:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument For Gold 'Value' $4000 Plus [View article]
    I see your point, but I am not propagating a myth, but rather attempting to analyze behavior to understand why and where prices are and might be.

    Take technical analysis. Are support and resistance lines real - No they are just ideas. Are there a sufficient number of people who pay attention to them that they impact behavior - Yes. So in that case is studying a not real thing that really impacts behavior silly -- No, not if you want to know what the other guy is likely to do.

    Remember the scene in the movie Patton, where the George C Scot as the general is looking through binoculars at the battle field as his tanks are defeating Rommel's tank. In that scene he says, " I read your book you son of bitch."

    I try to find the other guy's book and be aware of what makes him tick.

    I think that for those investors who believe that gold is real money and that fiat currency should be tied to gold (I am not saying where I am on that), the ratio of currency to gold quantity creates support and resistance lines for them (however weak or strong) the same way that peaks and valleys create trendlines and support and resistance for technical chart readers.

    Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. This exploration is looking for something that might create some level of support or resistance for the price of gold.

    It makes sense to me, and doesn't make sense to you, but that is what makes a market. So far I am ahead of the game with gold, having been in, having been out, and trading Puts and Calls around it.

    I am not attempting to talk gold up or down (and would be really ridiculous to think anything I have to say could accomplish that), nor talking my book, because I don't say what my net position is, and my net position varies from long to short, and I am not attempting propagate a myth, but am trying to understand motivations whether based on myth or science.

    Sorry it has caused so much stress to expose my exploration to public view. However, I'll trudge on.
    Nov 2 10:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple/Samsung Verdict Might Be A Good Thing For Research In Motion And Microsoft [View article]
    "The European competition laws and commission is more aggressive than the anti-trust laws and enforcement in the United States. They might not be too happy with Apple owning the smartphone market."

    We have received a private message objecting to the use of the phrase "owning the smartphone market" -- suggesting that we have not considered their minority market share at this time.

    For clarity, we were referring to the prospective ownership of the smartphone market that could result from shutting out other existing physical device's shapes, operating systems and graphic designs.

    While others may be able to re-develop fairly quickly, long delays for effective alternative solutions are likely. The potential during the interim for Apple to leap way ahead in market share is substantial, and potentially to a degree that may make competition somewhat futile --- that is until the next quantum leap in approach, such as possible wearable mobile communications (Google Glass?) or implantable mobile communications (they can do it for "bone anchored" hearing aids, and we put GPS tracking chips in dogs [maybe children someday]) It could be the StarTrek Borg-like future lies ahead.
    Aug 25 09:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Long-Term Return Cycles Now Favor Better Long-Term Market Returns Ahead [View article]
    YES, but being unaware of average is also not a good idea. Do you have more to offer beside the obvious. We all know the cliches " a six foot man can find water over his head in a river with an average depth of six inches" and all that, but do you have something to offer besides what you have said. Do you wish not to be aware of the averages while you seek more granular information? Do you think the forces that averages represent cannot impact the results of individual securities. Let me offer you another cliche to counter your cliche. "Rising tides raise all boats and ebbing tides lower all boats". I am sure than others can offer many additional cliches, but what is the problem with being aware of the aggregates?
    May 20 03:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument For Gold 'Value' Of $1100 [View article]
    I have no idea what you are talking about. What is the wrong data your reference.
    Nov 3 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument For Gold 'Value' Of $1100 [View article]
    To be clear, neither article says what gold is worth. Each article attempts to quantify arguments that others make about worth, in an effort to bracket the range of opinions outside of which prices are less likely to occur. Just as a technician seeks support and resistance lines, these studies are seeking forms of value support and resistance. As Eric Peterson said in a reply, study of questions is never meaningless. What may be pointless, however, is attempting to share the exploration of ideas with people who already "know" all they need to know and react badly to information that does not conform to their preset beliefs.
    Nov 2 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument For Gold 'Value' $4000 Plus [View article]
    Thank you for that notice, but the numbers are accurately transcribed from the source (TradingEconomics.com). If it is "hideously inaccurate" as you say, you might wish to take that up with TradingEconomics, or possibly even check you own facts.

    Here is what they said:

    Indonesia: 315375 IDR Billion in July of 2012
    Russian: 5980 RUB Billion in August of 2012

    Add nine zeros for billions and you get the numbers in the table.
    315,375,000,000,000
    5,980,000,000,000

    It is possible that TradingEconomics is wrong, but even if so, Indonesia is not a dominant factor is such an analysis

    As for the "the whole approach is wrong", I accept your right to disagree, but I am quite comfortable with finding out how much currency is out there versus how much gold is held by central banks.

    Your approach is also worthy of consideration but to say as you did that your way is "the only meaningful way" is not reasonable, nor conducive to the purpose of SeekingAlpha, nor this exploration of possibilites.

    I would never have the audacity or arrogance to tell anyone that my way is the only way -- but to each is own style.

    There is seldom a way that is the only way, but you are welcome to use your method and to espouse it. You might try a more professional and less angry communication style to get more people to take you more seriously.

    You may overestimate your own competence when you decide that any approach other than your own is totally wrong and not consistent with your view of the only meaningful way to think.

    I will, however, give you credit for admitting your own limitations in your bio which says "I'm starting with little or no noticeable natural talent for investing" Perhaps you should have added, "... or communicating in such as way as to encourage people to carefully consider what I have to say."
    Nov 1 06:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument For Gold 'Value' $4000 Plus [View article]
    Would like to have India in there, but was not able to get a good M0 reading for them.
    Nov 1 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Argument For Gold 'Value' Of $1100 [View article]
    I'll look into that.
    Oct 31 03:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Investors' U.S. Market Views And Professional Forecasters' U.S. Macro Views [View article]
    Kheldor -- did you make your 28% in equities only? did you do so in such a way that if you were wrong you could have lost as much? were you facing an immediate payout obligation, as pension plans do? were you restricted in what you could do by investment policies set by parties other than you as portfolio manager? were you unable to invest in small companies because you have so much capital that your minimum bite size is as big as some companies and more than maximum 5% and 10% limits of other? did you have so much money that in order to have a manageable number of positions (perhaps only 100 to 200) you are forced to own only very large-cap companies? was your bite size so large that were you to investment in most companies, you would materially move the price, and be unable to exit timely if needed? that is the world they live in. that is why, if well done, a comparatively very small (invisible) investor can outperform.

    however, the restrictions they face do not diminish their perspective, knowledge or skill. the assumption that they may be "dinosaurs" presumes their ages, and you may find that they are much younger than you expect. the average age of those interviewed on TV might be much older than the average age in the research department supporting those institutions and feeding into the economists and portfolio managers who voice the firm view.
    Sep 5 03:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional Investors' U.S. Market Views And Professional Forecasters' U.S. Macro Views [View article]
    Which idiots are you referencing? The managers of the largest pension funds or the chief economists at the countries leading financial institutions? Do you have a problem with professionals providing their best guess? Or with SA contributors taking note of the best guess of those who control the bulk of US investment assets? Isn't "idiots" just a bit strong way to respond to the fact that you don't agree with their consensus?
    Sep 5 08:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let 'Best Market Days' Mantra Derail Your Tactical Investing [View article]
    Peter Lynch was probably closer to buy and hold, at least on an asset class basis, although he may have done a lot of rotation. Can't really remember exactly -- that was a long time ago. He managed the Magellan fund for Fidelity from 1971 to 1990, I believe, and reportedly averaged 29.2% return over that time. He is noted for saying,

    "The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them".
    Jun 9 07:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Long-Term Return Cycles Now Favor Better Long-Term Market Returns Ahead [View article]
    Let me be clear about one thing. We are not traders and nothing in anything in this article should be taken as providing a trading signal in any way. We are long-term investors and discussion of cycles here is not denominated in minutes, hours, days, weeks or months.
    May 20 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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59 Comments
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