Streams of Reflection

Streams of Reflection
Contributor since: 2010
The rig count conundrum is well covered here: Do you think rig count affects price movements, as markets clearly give a higher value to "liquids-rich" players?
Gross withdrawals:
Full well-stream volume, including all natural gas plant liquids and all nonhydrocarbon gases, but excluding lease condensate. Also includes amounts delivered as royalty payments or consumed in field operations.
The decrease in gross withdrawals might only reflect the increased focus on liquids, rather than an actual drop in dry production. There are many possibilities here. It'll be interesting to see the July numbers next week.
Interesting analysis Richard. 2011 was the warmest winter in record in 50+ years and yet the injection volume, even if history repeated itself, according to your analysis, would amount to just over 4000 Bcf. With coal to gas switching I expect storage to shoot to close to 4000. Production, I agree with jbcguy, is somewhat ambiguous this year, so far you only see increasing production despite the depressed prices. Even though the demand is there it's kinda puzzling how long producers can sustain through this period, I still don't believe the new focus on liquids offer a full substitute for the loss in gas.
classic issue. when price is down do you buy more of the commodity or do you want to sell off? how do you define "the near term"? many forecasts say that natural gas prices will recover in 2013 but what if we won't see that happen until 2014-2015? it's purely based on what you believe in, you can argue either way: one is gonna be right.
Good call. What this means is the increasing demand for natural gas is real, the key problem is timing, i.e. when would this translate into increasing prices. However with the upcoming uncertainty in nat gas prices, it'd be interesting to see what's coming up in the next two or three months. I don't really buy into what these companies' CEOs say at the Barclays conference, the setback in price is not enough to deter the production frenzy.
I generally don't agree with the single-minded way of looking at consumption share of income as the sole indicator of rising/decreasing consumption. When your income goes up, you can spend more or save more or both. Which effect will be larger on the consumption share may not be that obvious. If you're in China, you'll see people are definitely spending more. Luxury items for example are rising very fast there and expected to go up as the government ponders lowering taxes. The younger generations in China are also not that obsessed with saving 50%+ of their income, given their improving standard of living and better social services available. I agree there're quite a lot of regional differences but a lot of positive transformation is happening everywhere too.
MSFT before 2000 was golden. Just not any more. I don't disagree with you about the majority of your arguments but there's no way they can make such a big jump. They're still pretty much dependent on Windows and for a large part a software company. With Windows going down (it's not far away), you need a big item to make up for it and who can tell whether the Kinect will be the next big thing? They've been sluggish for a while for a reason, that's all.
Your results are as good as your data can get. Plus, it's hard to believe in models that only include the last 20 years.
Nice China analysis. I like the part about how the PBoC can hardly control bank lending via using a loan ceiling and simply mopping the excess with a "reserve requirement" while the financial services sector has become far more advanced. Which basically says the RRR hike counts no more than a political tool... sooner or later we'll see the effect of ugly corporates receiving cheap money.
this feels like comparing apples to oranges. Minimum wage in 1999 is different from that of 2011.
the government should think about how to better monitor the companies instead. tax breaks may give them the incentive to hide bad numbers.
Aging population can add to consumption as well. And also, about your opinion about immigration, I would say Japan universities are pretty open towards international students (just read an article a while ago about a university lab in Japan with all Chinese students) and the Japanese know they will have to continue this trend.
I agree that Japan is still one of the most advanced markets, you can't easily beat that even given the (inflated) growth of the China bubble, which may go burst any day.
I suppose the market is assuming unusually bigger risks, clearly stemming from macro happenings lately. With this volatility, I wouldn't quite trust the technicals. Better stay out for a while and watch.
The Senate's recent vote to veto should the IMF aid-receiver does not "certify" its ability to pay back doesn't do much help. What does the Senate mean by "certify"? I would say the US has placed too much focus on EU problems it forgot its home issues with California and its own financial system.
Also, while part of the EU's problem is because of the shared currency, it's also because of individual countries' lack of fiscal responsibility. Clearly the solution needs to be done at the country level. It's a clear message that we can no longer resort to the "global financial regulation" mantra for any kind of regulatory reform.
And well, don't blindly believe in AAA ratings, either sovereign or corporate.
It's clear the author has totally undermined the possibility of problems spreading all over the place.
Nice post. I'd love to add California to the watch list. About the national sovereignty vs. EU control, I'm sort of geared towards the unified fiscal solution. Joining the eurozone is still of great interest, considering Bulgarian's recent entry into the ERM2. Even though the EU governments might not find it comfortable to go ahead with an EU fiscal policy now, they'll eventually have to get there. I wouldn't consider it something that can happen next week, it's gonna be debated in the next few months or probably years.