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Today's Technical Outlook - 6/18/2013
Market Summary
David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician
The Market opened the session and the week strongly to the upside. The major indices then traded sideways till 2:00PM when news of FED tapering lead a quick slide to the downside. A recovery in the last half hour left the indices with moderate gains for the day. At the close, the DJIA and the S&P ended the session up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq100 added 0.9%. Breadth was positive, 2 to 1, on slightly above average volume. RSI's moved to the upside with all three major indices at 52. ROC(10)'s advanced and the DJIA and S&P crossed into positive territory. MACD's remain below signal continuing to indicate the recent pullback and sideways action. The indices continued in their range for the last eleven sessions, with the S&P trading between 1598 and 1648. The ADX has moved down sharply, showing the slowing in momentum of the November rally. All three major indices remain below their 20D-SMA's and just above their 50D-SMA's. The Nasdaq100 has bounced off its 50D-SMA three times in recent sessions. The VIX moved to the downside by 2% to finish at 16.80. It continues to remain above the recent breakout level of 15. The S&P closed just inside its up-side channel and above 1625, putting the bias to the upside. It remains within the recent trading range and see no major move until breaking out of this range. Near term support is at 1637 and 1625. Near term resistance sets up as 1640 and 1650. The Nasdaq100 has near term support at 2962 and 2950. Near term upside resistance is now at 2975 and 2984. The FED meeting begins today and we get CPI and more housing data. Overseas markets are mixed in overnight trade. Futures are a little higher versus fair value this morning.
Major Economic Reports Today
CPI-8:30am Housing Starts/Building Permits-8:30am
DISCLAIMER LANGUAGE -ALL PRICES NOTED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE AS OF THE CLOSE ON TRADING PRIOR TO
TODAY'S DATE, UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED
This publication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources that are believed to be reliable. Street One Financial LLC (S1F) have not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this publication.
Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication is not and does not purport to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry, ETF or other security You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Fund's investment return and principal value will fluctuate. Upon redemption, shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The Fund's current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Go to toll free telephone number or Web site to obtain performance current to the most recent month-end. The average annualized total returns reflect the deduction of the Fund's maximum sales load. (When also showing non-standardized performance, if the sales load is not reflected, the disclosure must state that performance does not reflect the deduction of loads or fees and, if reflected, would have reduced performance.)
You should read the prospectus carefully before investing. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. Many of the securities mentioned in this publication involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established securities. For these and other reasons, the investments discussed in this publication may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Each investor should complete his or her own additional investigation and assessment prior to making investments in any securities. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing Transactions in securities mentioned herein may be affected only in those states where such securities are qualified for sale.
Street One Technical Analysis LLC is an independently owned Company from Street One Financial LLC (S1F). S1F is an independent Company specializing in ETF's, equities, and options utilizing the Broker/Dealer services and licenses of GWM Group Inc., a fully registered Broker Dealer and member of SIPC/FINRA. S1F specializes in agency ETF/ETP, equities, and options trade execution. On the ETF/ETP end, S1F may work with the ETF issuers to understand their products more thoroughly and how they can complement an investor's portfolio.
Data sources include ETF Database, ETFTrends.com, IndexUniverse.com, Google Finance, and Bloomberg data and at times other data sources are utilized. Leveraged, Inverse & Leveraged Inverse Conclusions and Risks 1) Leveraged, Inverse, and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs generally capture a high percentage of their expected daily returns, particularly on a net asset value basis. 2) L&LI ETFs are not appropriate for all investors. However, we believe they can be appropriate tools for some investors looking to make short-term tactical trades if they perceive a high likelihood of a strong market move occurring in a relatively short time period. In strong trending markets, being on the right side of the "trade" with L or LI ETFs can lead to very strong returns. 3) Investors should not expect these ETFs to deliver total returns linked to their benchmarks over any period other than daily. The effects of compounding and the daily re-leveraging or de-leveraging that occurs with L&LI
ETFs can lead to unexpected results over the long term. As a result, we believe longer-term investors should consider regularly rebalancing positions. 4) Trendless markets, particularly those with a high level of volatility, can lead to substantial relative underperformance of L&LI ETFs. 2) Leveraged and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs typically utilize futures and equity swap agreements. The use of these derivative instruments increases risk and enhances the possibility of tracking error.
Relative to traditional ETFs, leveraged, inverse and leveraged inverse ETFs typically have higher costs and lower tax efficiency. 3) The effects of compounding can lead to significant deviations from traditional benchmarks over longer time periods. For example, if $100,000 is invested in an index that increases in value by 10% on day one and then decreases in value by 10% on day two, the investment will be worth $110,000 at the end of day one and $99,000 after day two. However, the value of a security that doubles the daily performance of the index would be worth $120,000 on day one and $96,000 after day two. Thus, the index is down 1% after two days, a doubling of which would be down 2%. However, the security attempting to double the return of the index is down 4%. Investors should consider carefully the potential impact over longer periods. MLP and MLP ETF Risks Individual MLPs are publicly traded partnerships that have unique risks related to their structure. These include, but are not limited to, their reliance on the capital markets to fund growth, adverse ruling on the current tax treatment of distributions (typically mostly tax deferred), and commodity volume risk.
For tax purposes, MLP ETFs are taxed as C corporations and will be obligated to pay federal and state corporate income taxes on their taxable income, unlike traditional ETFs, which are structured as registered investment companies. These ETFs are likely to exhibit tracking error relative to their index as a result of accounting for deferred tax assets or liabilities (see funds' prospectuses). The potential tax benefits from investing in MLPs depend on their being treated as partnerships for federal income tax purposes and, if the MLP is deemed to be a corporation, then its income would be subject to federal taxation at the entity level, reducing the amount of cash available for distribution to the fund which could result in a reduction of the fund's value. MLP funds accrue deferred income taxes for future tax liabilities associated with the portion of MLP distributions considered to be a tax-deferred return of capital and for any net operating gains as well as capital appreciation of its investments; this deferred tax liability is reflected in the daily NAV; and, as a result, the MLP fund's after-tax performance could differ significantly from the underlying assets even if the pre-tax performance is closely tracked. Commodity ETF Risks Commodity ETFs may be subject to greater volatility than traditional ETFs and can be affected by increased volatility of commodities prices or indexes as well as changes in supply-and-demand relationships, interest rates, monetary and other governmental policies, or factors affecting a particular sector or commodity. Currency ETF Risks Investments in currency involve additional special risks, such as credit risk and interest rate fluctuations. ETFs mentioned at times may have material exposure to small cap and/or international securities that may have higher levels of risk and volatility than other ETFs.
Today's Technical Outlook - 6/17/2013
Market Summary
David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician
After opening to the upside on Friday, the markets were unable to hold those levels and began a gradual sell-off. The selling lasted through much of the session, though the volume was below average. At the close on Friday, the DJIA was off 105 points, the S&P dropped 9.6 points, and the Nasdaq100, off 19 points. Breadth was negative, 1.1 to 1, on below average volume. For the week, the DJIA lost 1.1%, the S&P gave up 1%, and the Nasdaq100 falling 1.5%. The pullback last week, was heavier in techs, though all the averages remain in a relative trading range. The S&P for the last ten sessions has traded within a 50 point range. With the current weakness, the major averages have traded below their 20D-SMA, but have managed to hold above their 50D. RSI's have dropped below 50 and ROC(10's) are negative. MACD's continue below signal. After hitting new highs in mid-May, the Market has pulled back somewhat and may be consolidating in the current trading range before a new attack on their recent highs. We will watch what direction the averages take when they break out of the current range. The VIX traded into the 18's last week before pulling back and closing at 17.15. It remains above the recent breakout level and within striking distance of more volatility in the 20's.
Trading Trends
David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician
The bias for the long term continues to the upside as technicals remain positive. The major indices continue above key long term technical indicators and the rally since November 2012 remains intact. Short term technicals have weakened in the recent pullback, but we hold the key 50D-SMA's. We are just below the trading channel that was established since November of 2012, and if we can't get back inside, it may indicate further weakness. Near term, the S&P has been in a 50 point trading range(1598-1648) for the last ten sessions. Watch the 1625 level for near term bias. We have the G8 meeting this week and Bernanke speaking, which may impact the market direction. Markets are up overseas and the Futures are up significantly this morning.
MAJOR INDICES Short term support and resistance level
DJIA
close 15070
SP500
close 1626
N100
close 2943
15000
15125
1625
1637
2937
2950
14991
15220
1613
1640
2925
2962
14952
15250
1612
1642
2920
2975
14887
15300
1600
1650
2912
2984
14865
15400
1599
1662
2900
2988
14800
15450
1597
1669
2888
3000
15500
1588
1687
2900
3012
1575
1688
2888
3025
1562
3037
DISCLAIMER LANGUAGE -ALL PRICES NOTED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE AS OF THE CLOSE ON TRADING PRIOR TO
TODAY'S DATE, UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED
This publication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources that are believed to be reliable. Street One Financial LLC (S1F) have not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this publication.
Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication is not and does not purport to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry, ETF or other security You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Fund's investment return and principal value will fluctuate. Upon redemption, shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The Fund's current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Go to toll free telephone number or Web site to obtain performance current to the most recent month-end. The average annualized total returns reflect the deduction of the Fund's maximum sales load. (When also showing non-standardized performance, if the sales load is not reflected, the disclosure must state that performance does not reflect the deduction of loads or fees and, if reflected, would have reduced performance.)
You should read the prospectus carefully before investing. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. Many of the securities mentioned in this publication involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established securities. For these and other reasons, the investments discussed in this publication may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Each investor should complete his or her own additional investigation and assessment prior to making investments in any securities. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing Transactions in securities mentioned herein may be affected only in those states where such securities are qualified for sale.
Street One Technical Analysis LLC is an independently owned Company from Street One Financial LLC (S1F). S1F is an independent Company specializing in ETF's, equities, and options utilizing the Broker/Dealer services and licenses of GWM Group Inc., a fully registered Broker Dealer and member of SIPC/FINRA. S1F specializes in agency ETF/ETP, equities, and options trade execution. On the ETF/ETP end, S1F may work with the ETF issuers to understand their products more thoroughly and how they can complement an investor's portfolio.
Data sources include ETF Database, ETFTrends.com, IndexUniverse.com, Google Finance, and Bloomberg data and at times other data sources are utilized. Leveraged, Inverse & Leveraged Inverse Conclusions and Risks 1) Leveraged, Inverse, and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs generally capture a high percentage of their expected daily returns, particularly on a net asset value basis. 2) L&LI ETFs are not appropriate for all investors. However, we believe they can be appropriate tools for some investors looking to make short-term tactical trades if they perceive a high likelihood of a strong market move occurring in a relatively short time period. In strong trending markets, being on the right side of the "trade" with L or LI ETFs can lead to very strong returns. 3) Investors should not expect these ETFs to deliver total returns linked to their benchmarks over any period other than daily. The effects of compounding and the daily re-leveraging or de-leveraging that occurs with L&LI
ETFs can lead to unexpected results over the long term. As a result, we believe longer-term investors should consider regularly rebalancing positions. 4) Trendless markets, particularly those with a high level of volatility, can lead to substantial relative underperformance of L&LI ETFs. 2) Leveraged and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs typically utilize futures and equity swap agreements. The use of these derivative instruments increases risk and enhances the possibility of tracking error.
Relative to traditional ETFs, leveraged, inverse and leveraged inverse ETFs typically have higher costs and lower tax efficiency. 3) The effects of compounding can lead to significant deviations from traditional benchmarks over longer time periods. For example, if $100,000 is invested in an index that increases in value by 10% on day one and then decreases in value by 10% on day two, the investment will be worth $110,000 at the end of day one and $99,000 after day two. However, the value of a security that doubles the daily performance of the index would be worth $120,000 on day one and $96,000 after day two. Thus, the index is down 1% after two days, a doubling of which would be down 2%. However, the security attempting to double the return of the index is down 4%. Investors should consider carefully the potential impact over longer periods. MLP and MLP ETF Risks Individual MLPs are publicly traded partnerships that have unique risks related to their structure. These include, but are not limited to, their reliance on the capital markets to fund growth, adverse ruling on the current tax treatment of distributions (typically mostly tax deferred), and commodity volume risk.
For tax purposes, MLP ETFs are taxed as C corporations and will be obligated to pay federal and state corporate income taxes on their taxable income, unlike traditional ETFs, which are structured as registered investment companies. These ETFs are likely to exhibit tracking error relative to their index as a result of accounting for deferred tax assets or liabilities (see funds' prospectuses). The potential tax benefits from investing in MLPs depend on their being treated as partnerships for federal income tax purposes and, if the MLP is deemed to be a corporation, then its income would be subject to federal taxation at the entity level, reducing the amount of cash available for distribution to the fund which could result in a reduction of the fund's value. MLP funds accrue deferred income taxes for future tax liabilities associated with the portion of MLP distributions considered to be a tax-deferred return of capital and for any net operating gains as well as capital appreciation of its investments; this deferred tax liability is reflected in the daily NAV; and, as a result, the MLP fund's after-tax performance could differ significantly from the underlying assets even if the pre-tax performance is closely tracked. Commodity ETF Risks Commodity ETFs may be subject to greater volatility than traditional ETFs and can be affected by increased volatility of commodities prices or indexes as well as changes in supply-and-demand relationships, interest rates, monetary and other governmental policies, or factors affecting a particular sector or commodity. Currency ETF Risks Investments in currency involve additional special risks, such as credit risk and interest rate fluctuations. ETFs mentioned at times may have material exposure to small cap and/or international securities that may have higher levels of risk and volatility than other ETFs.
Major Economic Reports Today
Empire Manufacturing-8:30am Net Long-Term TIC Flows-9:00am NAHB Index-10:00am
Today's Technical Outlook - 6/6/2013
Market Summary
David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician
The Market opened to the downside and then traded flat for the first half hour. This was followed by a steady decline till 1PM, before some buyers stepped in to shore up the Market. The final three hours saw some choppy trading, but by the final bell the averages were just off their lows of the session. At the close, the DJIA was down 1.4%, the S&P slipped 1.3%, and the Nasdaq100 gave up 1.2%. Breadth was decidedly negative, 4 to 1, on above average volume. RSI's dropped significantly to settle in the lower to mid 40's. ROC(10)'s continued negative and declined further in the session. The S&P is now down 4.6% from its recent high intra-day high, and the Nasdaq100 is off 3.7%. The pullback continues with the S&P off nearly 5%. Today's activity had the S&P slip below the trading channel it has been in since November 2012. MACD's continue lower and below signal. With the S&P below 1625 and the DJIA falling below 15000, the bias short term, continues to the downside. The three major indices are approaching their 50D-SMA's. The VIX continues its move to the upside, gaining 7.5% today to close at 17.50. Volatility is coming back into the marketplace. With the S&P below its channel and below 1625 support level, bias is trending to the downside. The next major levels of support are between 1597 and 1604. Below these levels, we see 1575 and 1540 the next important support levels. Near term resistance sets up as 1612 and 1625. The Nasdaq100 has near term support at 2937 and 2925. There is important support at 2912. Near term upside resistance is now at 2950 and 2962. We get Claims report this morning, before tomorrow's all important jobs report. Europe is up slightly in early trade. Futures are a little higher versus fair value this morning.
Major Economic Reports Today
Initial/Continuing Claims-8:30am NatGas Inventories-10:30am
DISCLAIMER LANGUAGE -ALL PRICES NOTED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE AS OF THE CLOSE ON TRADING PRIOR TO
TODAY'S DATE, UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED
This publication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources that are believed to be reliable. Street One Financial LLC (S1F) have not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this publication.
Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication is not and does not purport to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry, ETF or other security You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Fund's investment return and principal value will fluctuate. Upon redemption, shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The Fund's current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Go to toll free telephone number or Web site to obtain performance current to the most recent month-end. The average annualized total returns reflect the deduction of the Fund's maximum sales load. (When also showing non-standardized performance, if the sales load is not reflected, the disclosure must state that performance does not reflect the deduction of loads or fees and, if reflected, would have reduced performance.)
You should read the prospectus carefully before investing. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. Additional information concerning this publication may be available on request, if available. Many of the securities mentioned in this publication involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established securities. For these and other reasons, the investments discussed in this publication may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Each investor should complete his or her own additional investigation and assessment prior to making investments in any securities. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing Transactions in securities mentioned herein may be affected only in those states where such securities are qualified for sale.
Street One Technical Analysis LLC is an independently owned Company from Street One Financial LLC (S1F). S1F is an independent Company specializing in ETF's, equities, and options utilizing the Broker/Dealer services and licenses of GWM Group Inc., a fully registered Broker Dealer and member of SIPC/FINRA. S1F specializes in agency ETF/ETP, equities, and options trade execution. On the ETF/ETP end, S1F may work with the ETF issuers to understand their products more thoroughly and how they can complement an investor's portfolio.
Data sources include ETF Database, ETFTrends.com, IndexUniverse.com, Google Finance, and Bloomberg data and at times other data sources are utilized. Leveraged, Inverse & Leveraged Inverse Conclusions and Risks 1) Leveraged, Inverse, and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs generally capture a high percentage of their expected daily returns, particularly on a net asset value basis. 2) L&LI ETFs are not appropriate for all investors. However, we believe they can be appropriate tools for some investors looking to make short-term tactical trades if they perceive a high likelihood of a strong market move occurring in a relatively short time period. In strong trending markets, being on the right side of the "trade" with L or LI ETFs can lead to very strong returns. 3) Investors should not expect these ETFs to deliver total returns linked to their benchmarks over any period other than daily. The effects of compounding and the daily re-leveraging or de-leveraging that occurs with L&LI
ETFs can lead to unexpected results over the long term. As a result, we believe longer-term investors should consider regularly rebalancing positions. 4) Trendless markets, particularly those with a high level of volatility, can lead to substantial relative underperformance of L&LI ETFs. 2) Leveraged and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs typically utilize futures and equity swap agreements. The use of these derivative instruments increases risk and enhances the possibility of tracking error.
Relative to traditional ETFs, leveraged, inverse and leveraged inverse ETFs typically have higher costs and lower tax efficiency. 3) The effects of compounding can lead to significant deviations from traditional benchmarks over longer time periods. For example, if $100,000 is invested in an index that increases in value by 10% on day one and then decreases in value by 10% on day two, the investment will be worth $110,000 at the end of day one and $99,000 after day two. However, the value of a security that doubles the daily performance of the index would be worth $120,000 on day one and $96,000 after day two. Thus, the index is down 1% after two days, a doubling of which would be down 2%. However, the security attempting to double the return of the index is down 4%. Investors should consider carefully the potential impact over longer periods. MLP and MLP ETF Risks Individual MLPs are publicly traded partnerships that have unique risks related to their structure. These include, but are not limited to, their reliance on the capital markets to fund growth, adverse ruling on the current tax treatment of distributions (typically mostly tax deferred), and commodity volume risk.
For tax purposes, MLP ETFs are taxed as C corporations and will be obligated to pay federal and state corporate income taxes on their taxable income, unlike traditional ETFs, which are structured as registered investment companies. These ETFs are likely to exhibit tracking error relative to their index as a result of accounting for deferred tax assets or liabilities (see funds' prospectuses). The potential tax benefits from investing in MLPs depend on their being treated as partnerships for federal income tax purposes and, if the MLP is deemed to be a corporation, then its income would be subject to federal taxation at the entity level, reducing the amount of cash available for distribution to the fund which could result in a reduction of the fund's value. MLP funds accrue deferred income taxes for future tax liabilities associated with the portion of MLP distributions considered to be a tax-deferred return of capital and for any net operating gains as well as capital appreciation of its investments; this deferred tax liability is reflected in the daily NAV; and, as a result, the MLP fund's after-tax performance could differ significantly from the underlying assets even if the pre-tax performance is closely tracked. Commodity ETF Risks Commodity ETFs may be subject to greater volatility than traditional ETFs and can be affected by increased volatility of commodities prices or indexes as well as changes in supply-and-demand relationships, interest rates, monetary and other governmental policies, or factors affecting a particular sector or commodity. Currency ETF Risks Investments in currency involve additional special risks, such as credit risk and interest rate fluctuations. ETFs mentioned at times may have material exposure to small cap and/or international securities that may have higher levels of risk and volatility than other ETFs.