Sufiy

Google Sell-Off Offers Opportunity

Google GOOG Earnings and Growth are Falling further
The most important ring bell for all Google shareholders should be falling by 12% margin from almost constant before 33% to 29% of revenue. With increase in revenue of 58% Y/Y Google demonstrated falling growth rate of -25% Y/Y. Google network growth is falling even more faster by -38% Y/Y due to heating up competition. Net Income actually fall from 1billion to 0.9 billion comparing to the 1st q 2007. Total cost and Expenses are growing 116% faster then revenue growth rate Q/Q. Sales per head is down by -6%. With all this deteriorating fundamentals investors still were ready to pay last Thursday 548.59 which brings Google to valuation of P/S=12.9, P/E=47, P/FCF=74. Even if Google...




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Google Bounces Nicely Off Its 50-Day Moving Average

Google GOOG Earnings and Growth are Falling further
The most important ring bell for all Google shareholders should be falling by 12% margin from almost constant before 33% to 29% of revenue. With increase in revenue of 58% Y/Y Google demonstrated falling growth rate of -25% Y/Y. Google network growth is falling even more faster by -38% Y/Y due to heating up competition. Net Income actually fall from 1billion to 0.9 billion comparing to the 1st q 2007. Total cost and Expenses are growing 116% faster then revenue growth rate Q/Q. Sales per head is down by -6%. With all this deteriorating fundamentals investors still were ready to pay last Thursday 548.59 which brings Google to valuation of P/S=12.9, P/E=47, P/FCF=74.

Google Q2 2007 Earnings Call Transcript

Google GOOG Earnings and Growth are Falling further
The most important ring bell for all Google shareholders should be falling by 12% margin from almost constant before 33% to 29% of revenue. With increase in revenue of 58% Y/Y Google demonstrated falling growth rate of -25% Y/Y. Google network growth is falling even more faster by -38% Y/Y due to heating up competition. Net Income actually fall from 1billion to 0.9 billion comparing to the 1st q 2007. Total cost and Expenses are growing 116% faster then revenue growth rate Q/Q. Sales per head is down by -6%. With all this deteriorating fundamentals investors still were ready to pay last Thursday 548.59 which brings Google to valuation of P/S=12.9, P/E=47, P/FCF=74. Even if Google could...
sufiy.blogspot.com/200...

Google Q2 Solid; Wall Street Overreacts to "Earnings Miss"

Google GOOG Earnings and Growth are Falling further
The most important ring bell for all Google shareholders should be falling by 12% margin from almost constant before 33% to 29% of revenue. With increase in revenue of 58% Y/Y Google demonstrated falling growth rate of -25% Y/Y. Google network growth is falling even more faster by -38% Y/Y due to heating up competition. Net Income actually fall from 1billion to 0.9 billion comparing to the 1st q 2007. Total cost and Expenses are growing 116% faster then revenue growth rate Q/Q. Sales per head is down by -6%. With all this deteriorating fundamentals investors still were ready to pay last Thursday 548.59 which brings Google to valuation of P/S=12.9, P/E=47, P/FCF=74. Even if Google could
sufiy.blogspot.com/200...

Google Earnings: EPS is Falling, Growth is Slowing

Buying PUTs at reaction rallies up to the turning points with at least 9 months to expiration

Despite Google's DoubleClick Acquisition, Microsoft May Be In the Lead

Great article!

Google in Full Glory - Like the Roman Empire Before Its Fall?

"Overview of comScore Search data This report gives investors a monthly snapshot of internet search trends focusing on the 5 largest sites. We issue this report on a monthly basis, focusing on the same data points. We examine U.S.-only paid-search and world-wide search data as provided by comScore.
U.S. Sponsored Click Data for February Google's sponsored clicks were down 3% m/m, up 45% y/y, and 6% q/q. Yahoo's were up 4% m/m, up 25% y/y, and 4% q/q. MSN's were down 5% m/m, up 95% y/y, and 14% q/q. AOL's were down 4% m/m, down 38% y/y, and down 10% q/q. Ask's were down 6% m/m, up 3% y/y, and down 7% q/q.
World-Wide qSearch Data for February Google's total searches were up 50% y/y, 2% m/m, and 10% q/q. Yahoo's were up 34% y/y, 1% m/m, and 8% q/q. MSN's were up 19% y/y, 3% m/m, and 1% q/q. AOL's were down 35% y/y, -2% m/m, and -14% q/q. Ask's were down 4% y/y, flat m/m, and up 1% q/q.
Key Points For U.S. sponsored clicks, GOOG showed 45% y/y growth vs. 54% y/y in Jan and 62% in Dec (2nd consecutive m/m decline, but was +6% q/q), while YHOO's grew 23% y/y in Feb vs. 23% in Jan and 28% in Dec. YHOO's click through rate increased 43bps m/m (Panama went live 2/5). GOOG's coverage ratio decreased 118bps m/m to 47.5% although the % of searches w/ a sponsored ad and a click was 27% vs. 22% y/y.
Bottom Line If one were to trade on this news (and we do NOT advise doing so because we think this data is only directionally accurate), it was not a good month of data for Google. Sponsored clicks were down for the second consecutive month and year-over-year growth rates are decelerating at a faster pace than expected."

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Open Your Eyes to Google's Structural Crisis

Dear Anand,

Dear Anand,

I am not MSFT exec, far from it. Regarding your arguments I respect them apart from: "For the smaller companies, they do not have the incentive nor the financial power to fight against the likes of GOOG. Sure, a class action lawsuit is possible, however, the cost of organizing all such providers will be huge. Even if that happens, and the ruling goes against GOOG in court, they will likely be ordered to pay $X Hundred Million dollars, which is a pittance considering GOOG has $13B in the bank." It is called Bulling and arrogance and this is the biggest flaw in Google behaviour. You can not base your business model around it. Real products? Check traffic details they are at least pathetic. It is still one stream revenue business with all connected risks.
You should remember our discussion just before the earnings with Google above 500, are you and your audience prepared if I will be right again? Thank you for reading.
72.14.203.104/search?q...;hl=en&ct=clnk...
Regards,

Sufiy.

Open Your Eyes to Google's Structural Crisis

"It was clear then that countries with cheap labor and loose environmental policies would lose the industrial wars."

Should be: "It was clear then that the industrial wars would be lost to countries with cheap labor and loose environmental policies."

Regards,

Sufiy.

Google: Media Play Or IT Investment?

Great article! Some more thoughts in that direction "If Schmidt is wrong?"

"Recent developments with Microsoft attack on Google's "cavalier" approach to copyright protection" highlighted more deep and structural problems to the core of Google's Business. In a simple interpretation all this story with copyright issues is similar to open next to Nike Shop a Whorehouse with cheap illegal copycats from Asia. "It will be very good for advertisement of your business" is very weak argument against criminal case. It is plain illegal and will kill Nike Shop. "Companies (Google S.) that create no content of their own, and make money solely on the backs of other people's content, are raking in billions through advertising revenue and IPOs," says Rubin, who oversees copyright and trade secret law at Microsoft." Here Microsoft is right and actually is rising the issue which could save trillions of Dollars to struggling US economy. Even more, until this "too liberal", criminal in nature approach is allowed (I think nobody cares so far and do not understand far reaching complications) it is killing USA economy and eroding the last resource of defence - Intellectual Property Rights. If you are not aware...con'd

sufiy.blogspot.com/200...

Microsoft Sharpens Knives Against Google Books

Recent developments with Microsoft attack on Google's "cavalier" approach to copyright protection" highlighted more deep and structural problems to the core of Google's Business. In a simple interpretation all this story with copyright issues is similar to open next to Nike Shop a Whorehouse with cheap illegal copycats from Asia. "It will be very good for advertisement of your business" is very weak argument against criminal case. It is plain illegal and will kill Nike Shop. "Companies (Google S.) that create no content of their own, and make money solely on the backs of other people's content, are raking in billions through advertising revenue and IPOs," says Rubin, who oversees copyright and trade secret law at Microsoft." Here Microsoft is right and actually is rising the issue which could save trillions of Dollars to struggling US economy. Even more, until this "too liberal", criminal in nature approach is allowed (I think nobody cares so far and do not understand far reaching complications) it is killing USA economy and eroding the last resource of defence - Intellectual Property Rights. If you are not aware...con'd

sufiy.blogspot.com/200...

Goldman: Google Price Target Intact Given Positive Click Fraud Results

Google TA Double Top Reversal is confirmed

sufiy.blogspot.com/200...

Google: A Year After The Wall St. Journal's Cover Story

Google TA double top reversal confirmed


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Google's Second Largest Shareholder Lowers Stake

No wonder the are selling blow after blow is coming on tired stock and the main issue is that that day when you can sell tons of ADS in Copyrighted material taken for nothing will never come. This ruling will open Pandora Box with law suits for Google. Once the guys will understand that Google will be sued by others they will not wait until Google will spend all its cash and sue by themselves, I am talking here about YouTube as well...

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YouTube Reaches Deal To Post Digital Music Group's Classic TV Content

Hi, there is some other news as well:
"NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - A group of major media companies has accused Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) of benefiting from the sale of pirated movies and providing business support to two Web sites suspected of offering access to illegal film downloads, the Wall Street Journal said on Monday."
What is most interesting here is the list of companies alleging Google of Evil doing:
"The media companies, which the paper said include News Corp. , Viacom Inc. , Sony Corp., General Electric Co.'s NBC Universal, Time Warner Inc. and Walt Disney Co. , allege that Google deliberately directed traffic to Web sites that were engaged in fostering piracy, the paper said, citing people familiar with the matter."
This is serious, as predicted here Content providers will not just sit and watch how their money are stolen with the speed of light in the bandwidth. Just one week ago on Bloomberg Disney CEO has put: we need to draw a line where the marketing becomes something different when actually we must be paid for(phrasing is mine S.). Authors writing books will prevail, not catalogs or even best searching engines in the libraries, all IP industries are threatened by Google approach and it is ridicules to think that it will be sustained in the long term or you can base your business model on it. Google is fighting on too many fronts right now and its core consumer product is deteriorating: any search engine which will be able to bring you really precious relevant results without ad spam will send Google into oblivion. Just look what happen to the web thanks to paid search now, how many percent of it is just parking sites full of ad spam without any original information. Do not go further then my Yahoo! back link counter on this blog: 30% of links are just parking sites with Key Words.
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Regards,

sufiy.