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Chart of the Day: This Time It's Different
Nice comment, however, I believe that global economic contours have changed quite a lot from the periods of 1957-58 and 1973-74 when the US economy experienced recession.
Currently there is much higher level of global economic integration which was illustrated in the fast and furious pace of spreading US financial crisis to the other parts of the globe. I believe similar fast pace will be experienced when other major economies like China and India keeps the growth pace.
Secondly, most of major US corporations are much more geographically diversified than ever before. So, a substantial part of economic growth driver will be coming from non-US economies. If you look at a leading consumer company like PG, its non-US revenue has been increasing constantly over the period FY03 to FY07 from ~50% to ~58%. Data source: Gridstone Research. Similar trend could be identified for other major US coroporations.
Thirdly, major leaders and economists of major economies are on much more on the same page when it comes to reviving growth than in the past.
Given all this I believe that recovery in the US economy and elsewhere would be faster than what has been experienced in the past.
On Jul 05 08:40 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:
> Putting aside that BLS could be spinning the numbers through business
> birth/death adjustments, this has been a very destructive recession
> as John suggests.
> I think most, including the administration, believe when the skies
> clear there will be a mean reversion trend and unemployment will
> rapidly return to 5.5%.......the upper end of unemployment consistent
> with full employment conditions.
> Nothing could be further from the truth. Studies show that in an
> economic contraction cycle it takes X months to go from 5.5% unemployment
> to peak unemployment and 2X months to go from peak back to 5.5%.
> For sake of conversation let's say unemployment was 5.5% in May of
> 2008 and unemployment peaks in May of 2010......two years. To the
> extent history is a guide and believing many who think it will take
> longer this time, it could take four years beyond 2010 before we
> see an unemployment rate as low as 5.5%...........which would be
> And this could prove optimistic as it takes longer for economies
> to recover from economic contractions brought on by a financial crises
> than typical inventory corrections.
Jul 6, 2009. 12:17 AM
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Are U.S. Car Sales Bottoming Out?
Kindly try the instablog link "
" of the article. Clicking on the images there throws up really well scaled image.
On Apr 29 04:52 AM Mircea wrote:
> Diagram are not possible to read wrose by click.
Apr 29, 2009. 07:54 AM
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Xignite quote data
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