Comments on Sunil Shah's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/sunil-shah/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-763003 763003 Consider me your fourth follower. Maybe I am not crazy shorting these > scum bags. I appreciate your analysis. My reason for hating on them? > Marc with a "c" is a pig. I always carry with me a 20-page Yahoo > printout showing his daily (yes automated and legal) selling of shares > from 2/5/07 to 8/15/08, some days approaching $1M. That's a lot of > lack of confidence in his own company. And by what logic is that > pathetic company doing so much for the human race that he deserves > that level of compensation? The guy got lucky. He may be smart but > he's no Einstein. He isn't curing cancer or bringing about world > peace. Anyway, just like Enron, the market eventually catches up > with evil ... so I will be short CRM as long as I can tap a keyboard.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:14:21 -0500 Bill Gates, when chairman and CEO, sold a lot more than a million$ worth per day. This keeps management out of trouble with
the SEC and lawsuits for insider trading if they sell a fixed amount every day. It also alllowed Bill Gates to give his fortune to his foundation which will help the human race. Maybe Marc has the same thing in mind!


On Nov 06 10:00 AM LoveShorting wrote:

> Consider me your fourth follower. Maybe I am not crazy shorting these
> scum bags. I appreciate your analysis. My reason for hating on them?
> Marc with a "c" is a pig. I always carry with me a 20-page Yahoo
> printout showing his daily (yes automated and legal) selling of shares
> from 2/5/07 to 8/15/08, some days approaching $1M. That's a lot of
> lack of confidence in his own company. And by what logic is that
> pathetic company doing so much for the human race that he deserves
> that level of compensation? The guy got lucky. He may be smart but
> he's no Einstein. He isn't curing cancer or bringing about world
> peace. Anyway, just like Enron, the market eventually catches up
> with evil ... so I will be short CRM as long as I can tap a keyboard.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-762529 762529 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:44:18 -0500 I think you should look at put options rather than shorting the stock.
At least that way, you know how much you stand to lose. Sure the PE is out of sight, but look at the last tech boom. JDS Uniphase went up 7000% with multiplexing light wave pump lasers. We called these long and strong buyers "Uniphasians" because if you made a negative comment on a blog site, they would storm in and crucify the offender. It was a real cult, pumped by George Gilder. Don't short into this strength on CRM, it could bury you since most people don't know what a cloud is, but they do look at charts and chase momentum. This stock has not yet hit the "Uniphasian Cult" stage yet and it trades thin.
Incidently, I am a money manager and have been doing it for a long, long time and I am long this stock but with no illusions and I don't love nor hate any stock. Falling in love or in hate is a ridiculous pursuit, these stocks are pieces of paper.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-760445 760445 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:55:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-758615 758615 Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:52:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-758353 758353 Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:23:18 -0500
Also, how the street reconciles a company on a 118 trailing PE (FPE to Jan 11 of 76!) and a hurdle for sales growth for this quarter of 17% YOY is simply beyond me.

They may well beat the street consensus for this qtr (results 17th Nov), but it sure as hell doesnt justify the valuation.

Looking to short more post results. Go big or go home, as the swamis say on the banks of the Ganges -:)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-751321 751321 Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:44:43 -0500
If fundamentals later start to decline, this high priced story stock will be a great short. But I think there are better short possibilities, for now. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-751016 751016 Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:54:33 -0500
Moreover, projections of furture earnings always factor in unconscious and crucial assumptions about macro growth. Most investors believe that, sooner or later, a full fledged earnings recovery will happen. But it is far more likely that future earnings will disappoint for nearly all companies--including CRM--for the forseeable future. Disappointing earnings will be the inescapable consequence of on-going capital consumption in the US, due to decades of destructive and worsening government policy.

So CRM looks highly interesting. Thanks for the report. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-749771 749771 The momentum mojos are right in one respect: a value approach can > predict, with reasonable confidence WHAT will happen, not WHEN it > will happen. But guys, the ultimate criterion will be based on rationality > (as it was during the 99 dotcom frenzy, as it was in homebuilder > stocks); reason will prevail and reason clearly dictates this stock > has run two maybe three years ahead of itself, in an future environment > as fickle and as capricious as a cloud!! Can you say with reasonable > conviction SFDC will maintain its 35% rev growth rate for 3 years? > IN THIS TOTALLY TURBULENT CLOUDY WEATHER? Time will tell, lets talk > in two years. I will weather the rain until then.]]> Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:09 -0500

On Nov 07 07:05 AM Sunil Shah wrote:

> The momentum mojos are right in one respect: a value approach can
> predict, with reasonable confidence WHAT will happen, not WHEN it
> will happen. But guys, the ultimate criterion will be based on rationality
> (as it was during the 99 dotcom frenzy, as it was in homebuilder
> stocks); reason will prevail and reason clearly dictates this stock
> has run two maybe three years ahead of itself, in an future environment
> as fickle and as capricious as a cloud!! Can you say with reasonable
> conviction SFDC will maintain its 35% rev growth rate for 3 years?
> IN THIS TOTALLY TURBULENT CLOUDY WEATHER? Time will tell, lets talk
> in two years. I will weather the rain until then.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-749632 749632 Sat, 07 Nov 2009 07:05:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-749289 749289 Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:07:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-748223 748223 Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:25:04 -0500 Mr Softie has looked like the the loser of the decade and has been blindsided on the cloud, just like they were on e-mail in the 1990's.
Google, VM, and Salesforce have much more imagination than Balmer and the cloud could be Microsoft's undoing. Meantime, just look at todays action on price/volume on CRM. I don't see anyone moving out of CRM despite the negative employment report.
I am an old trader, therefore I am not bold because in the 40 years I've been trading stocks I noticed there are no old, bold traders. If you are ultimately right on CRM, I may sell the break but right now I know the momentum is in the bull camp. Value investors are always too early and Sunil Shah is basing his short on fundamentals, such as PE and an elephant (Mr Softie) in the room. Meantime CRM is making highs weekly since mid-July and blowing through analysts' estimates. How soon will Mr Shah experience the nightmare of the short seller when he dreams CRM going to infinity and he wakes up at 4:00 AM, calls his broker and tells him to cover on the open? Logic tells me to short weakness and this stock isn't showing weakness in the recent volitility. So unless Mr Shah is a swami with a crystal ball I would not short this rocket. Good luck.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-747904 747904 Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:00:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171466-salesforce-com-absurdly-overvalued?source=feed#comment-747660 747660 Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:37:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107679-terex-should-buy-back-its-shares-in-place-of-fantuzzi?source=feed#comment-577233 577233 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:10:56 -0400 MAChanges??????????//]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107679-terex-should-buy-back-its-shares-in-place-of-fantuzzi?source=feed#comment-577225 577225 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:07:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119676-four-questions-for-the-seagate-board?source=feed#comment-463211 463211 Tue, 14 Apr 2009 15:36:52 -0400
Question though: Is Watkins leaving Seagate necessarily? Or moving to another role? Sources have stated that Luczo and Watkins would discuss about other possible roles. Would the separation agreement still hold validity if a conclusion could not be met? Interesting to note. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122843-salesforce-com-great-company-exorbitant-valuation?source=feed#comment-407476 407476 i have never shorted an individual stock, only have used the ETF's, > but this one might be too easy to ignore. > ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 02:42:33 -0500
On Feb 28 12:44 PM jeerio wrote:

> i have never shorted an individual stock, only have used the ETF's,
> but this one might be too easy to ignore.
>
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122843-salesforce-com-great-company-exorbitant-valuation?source=feed#comment-407065 407065 Sat, 28 Feb 2009 12:44:21 -0500
and frankly, i feel like an idiot for not shorting Berkshire Hathaway - but there's likely still room to do so.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122843-salesforce-com-great-company-exorbitant-valuation?source=feed#comment-405425 405425 Fri, 27 Feb 2009 03:23:06 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122843-salesforce-com-great-company-exorbitant-valuation?source=feed#comment-405344 405344 Fri, 27 Feb 2009 00:09:32 -0500
The January growth in cashflow albeit low is almost irrelevant because the deceleration in growth is vertigineous and shows no signs of abating. Clearly there is some inertia in sales in that processes that had been ongoing for months possibly still got closed. Next quarter we will strart seeing the full impact of the post lehman freeze up. As layoffs continue and new sales calls do not get return soon enough cashflow growth will turn negative. Not that cashflow means anything is this company run by an egomaniac who will likelly burn the cash rather than return it to its shareowners. Why does anyone think that heads have starting rolling in the executive suite? Because all is dandy? If you think this is a great ime to buy or hold this company. Godspeed.

DISCLOSURE: SHORT CRM]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119676-four-questions-for-the-seagate-board?source=feed#comment-384351 384351 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 14:37:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107679-terex-should-buy-back-its-shares-in-place-of-fantuzzi?source=feed#comment-378004 378004 Fri, 06 Feb 2009 07:43:45 -0500 Dear Sir, Thank you for your clever foresight. In May/June 2009 the recession is over and then it's Terex choice now to be in one of the brightest future business or not. If they are long oriented winners they will choose one of the Best Groups in the Crane Business and have simultanously manufacturing sites in Germany, Italy and China. TO IT, no better time for. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104493-salesforce-likely-to-be-below-15-by-year-s-end?source=feed#comment-327796 327796 Fri, 12 Dec 2008 15:59:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107679-terex-should-buy-back-its-shares-in-place-of-fantuzzi?source=feed#comment-324080 324080 Mon, 08 Dec 2008 15:35:51 -0500
From A Terex dealer principal]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107679-terex-should-buy-back-its-shares-in-place-of-fantuzzi?source=feed#comment-316928 316928 Fri, 28 Nov 2008 17:40:12 -0500
Time to renegotiate the actual purchase amount for Fantuzzi and the terms of payment as current conditions do dictate that but dropping the deal would be costlier and not just because of the penalty to back out.

and another thing.... Caterpillar although part of the sector and industry it is certainly not a competitor to Terex. Cat targets dirt moving and has virtually become a marketing rather manufacturing retail commodity where as Terex is positioned to strike markets that have only two other competitiors Liebherr and Manitowoc, both of whom think and demand greater return on investments. This mans opinion certainly is justified from a bean counters view but in this industry sector an anylist needs to
get out onto a job site and see what equipment really makes the long dollar.....hint ...CRANES!!!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107679-terex-should-buy-back-its-shares-in-place-of-fantuzzi?source=feed#comment-316344 316344 Thu, 27 Nov 2008 13:48:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107679-terex-should-buy-back-its-shares-in-place-of-fantuzzi?source=feed#comment-314103 314103 Mon, 24 Nov 2008 18:50:09 -0500
Management being clear on what they'll be doing will go along way in convincing me into a long position.

Check out BUCY if you like TEX]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107679-terex-should-buy-back-its-shares-in-place-of-fantuzzi?source=feed#comment-313987 313987 Mon, 24 Nov 2008 16:08:31 -0500
I fully agree with this comment. But to suggest they use the money instead to buy back shares is just as irresponsible. In this environment, a company the size of Terex needs to hang on to as much cash as possible. And to use it to buy back shares makes no sense. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104493-salesforce-likely-to-be-below-15-by-year-s-end?source=feed#comment-312220 312220 Fri, 21 Nov 2008 21:51:40 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102112-is-terex-headed-for-extinction?source=feed#comment-307878 307878 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 10:31:48 -0500