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Sunil Shah

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  • Herbalife And The 1986 State Of California Final Judgment: An Update [View article]
    Great find Mathew,
    I suggest you send our friends at Pershing Square an email link if they havent seen this. I am sure they will be able to give this new finding its just treatment.
    Dec 9, 2014. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    As far as I know all shares have more than one future outcome. So does that mean all investors are speculators?
    Nov 27, 2014. 04:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Want To Play Poker With Ms. Meredith Adler And Mr. Stiritz [View article]
    To put this academic question to rest, The probabilistic expected outcome, is calculated as follows:
    x+y = 100% the 2 event probability.
    The expected outcome:( x% * $0) + (y% * $ 74) = the expected result

    And if this is higher than the current price, taking the long bet is rational.

    Matt, as much as i like your writing style, if one outcome is 0, it DOES NOT mean you are a speculator if you take the bet.

    The y% probability and the $74 (could be much higher) might mean taking the bet is a rational decision.

    Matt as much as I enjoy your articles and am a short right there with you,
    (Puts $40 jan 2016), I'm afraid your logic here is wrong.

    But keep up the brilliant witty informative articles please!
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  •'s (CRM) CEO Marc Benioff on Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    is there anything that Benioff is not superexcited or optimistic about?? Ironic as it comes with a downward revision in sales forecast for f16 and NOT ONE analyst challenges him. Laughable. But for the last two years, last laugh has been on the shorts.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Salesforce: COO taking leave of absence [View news story]
    Exactly both the CFO and COO are jumping ship and cashing in millions. What do they know that market doesnt. This 37bn market cap hasnt made a dime in GAAP earnings, with +4bn$ revenue. No Economies of scale in sight. Time for a Reality check?
    Nov 19, 2014. 05:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barington Capital Group Sends Letter To The Chairman And CEO Of Ebix, Inc. [View article]
    To Barrington Capital Group

    I greatly applaud the quality of your work and your reasoned request to management. However, I am as impressed by your due diligence as I am shocked to discover some of the findings, in a company in which I'm invested and thought I knew well!

    I would appreciate the source of your information on the following. (I dont believe it is in the public domain):

    -"We have also been told that two other directors of the Company Hans U. Benz and Hans Ueli Keller were suggested by the Rennes Foundation."

    -"A feature of the Goldman transaction that is extremely troubling to us was that you agreed to forego an Acquisition Bonus in the event that the Goldman transaction closed. It appears to us that the Acquisition Bonus Agreement enabled you to negotiate a larger ownership position in the private company for you and the Rennes Foundation than your equity contributions would have otherwise entitled you to receive.

    In addition, since you didn't publicly waive the Acquisition Bonus Agreement for other potential suitors, it likely served as a deterrent to other bidders potentially willing to pay a higher price than Goldman, as any topping offer would have needed to exceed the Goldman offer by at least the amount of the Acquisition Bonus in order to yield a higher value for the Company's public shareholders."

    I find the second point extremely alarming, as it would have enabled the CEO to subversively receive a cumulative stake of 44% in the company after the Goldman acquisition, whereas even after activation of the poison pill deterrent this should have been 'only' 29% if there was another suitor!

    This clearly shows a divergence of interests between the CEO and the outside shareholders, and CANNOT HAVE BEEN APPROVED BY a functioning independent board. Clearly the CEO would have been personally incentivised to consummate this Goldman deal, irrespective of the interests of other shareholders!

    I would be very grateful for the source of your information above and sincerely hope your activism leads to progress. It is particularly galling that Robin Raina portrays himself as an upstanding model citizen, whilst behind the scenes we have a 'legal' but shamefully unscrupulous plot, a plot that is approved by an 'apparently' independent board.

    Now I understand why there were a number of lawsuits objecting to the Goldman deal.

    EBIX and Robin Raina, I very much look forward to your response.

    Barrington, please show us how we might help.

    Nov 12, 2014. 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saturation: Why The FTC's Job Just Got Easier Due To Herbalife's Miss [View article]
    where did you get the table for YOY Recruitment Trends?
    It certainly isnt on their earnings release and the site they refer to, does not function.

    Nov 5, 2014. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: At This Price, You Don't Have To Like It To Buy It [View article]
    Watch today's spike fizzle very quickly and turn negative by end of day...
    Sep 23, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: At This Price, You Don't Have To Like It To Buy It [View article]
    As complex as the substance (over form) is, the underlying criterion: are sales effected/incentivised for recruitment or for consumption? Ackman's 3 hour expose, for anyone who could endure it, irrefutably proved it's the former. G, S & Match
    Sep 23, 2014. 07:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Plus Twitch Equals A Whole New Game [View article]
    Gary, why am I not surprised you didn't answer the question LOL
    Sep 1, 2014. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Plus Twitch Equals A Whole New Game [View article]
    Is this the same Deluded Gary who thinks he bought numerous BMW's with his AMZN profits? So how many Beamers have you bought Gary, with Amazon gains?
    Aug 30, 2014. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix's Share Buy-Back Program: An Updated Fair Value Estimate [View article]
    Investing Doc and Validus,

    You cant assume the market cap stays the same and is redistributed to a smaller number of shares on a buyback - the additional debt detracts from the equity and market value. (in finance theory, the enterprise value = equity + debt would stay the same, abstracting for tax, so roughly here, the increase in debt = decrease in equity value.)

    Nonetheless, the buyback transaction will be accretive to eps and so should lead to a higher share price if the P/E stays constant.

    That's all theory, what we have here is a the potential for a very nice short squeeze on a grossly undervalued share.

    The moment Management see the only LOGICAL remaining course of action (they've been pretty proactive of late) is to appoint a Big 3 audit firm, this could revert back to the $25 you state.
    Aug 27, 2014. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix's Share Buy-Back Program: An Updated Fair Value Estimate [View article]
    "Were the company simply to buy back $80 million worth of stock today, the float would be reduced by about 5.4 million shares, and the stock would instantly be worth $17.24, approximately a 16.4% premium to today's close. "

    Hello, Not sure how you come to this conclusion. Please explain rationale.
    Aug 27, 2014. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: It Gets Weirder And Weirder [View article]
    'What would have to change for you to decide to sell your Amazon holdings?'
    I sell some everytime I want a new BMW. That is it."


    Your sense of delusion is so complete, I'm sure you actually believe yourself.
    Aug 27, 2014. 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix's (EBIX) CEO Robin Raina on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I was immensely relieved to hear they are considering a big 3 audit firm. No doubt they (big 3) are not infallible, but given the SEC/DOJ investigations, given the short sellers’ rumour mongering, the added cost would be far outweighed by the quality assurance this would provide. I sincerely hope the EBIX board will promptly come to that conclusion - it's as plain as day
    Aug 11, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment