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Sunil Shah

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  • S&P 500 Valuation: Earnings Expectations Versus Reality [View article]
    Great in-depth article with lots of referencing. Your hard work is appreciated!

    $MSFT is certainly getting some bids of recent, despite the 14% decline in global PC shipments in 1Q 13. Can you pls elaborate on how you add back R&D to invested capital ie do you do it YOY from their annual reports or how...

    I saw on a 5 yr view, MSFT has almost exactly tracked the S&P return. I wonder if it will outperform from hereon...

    well done again
    May 17 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
    I've tried to find out more from CRM's IR team, this query still not answered. (you might find it amusing)

    Hello IR at Salesforce.
    I am an investor in Salesforce, shares held via Schwab, and paste this from your F13 release:
    Date feb 28 2013, when you posted your 4q 13 and full year results.


    Deferred Revenue: Deferred revenue on the balance sheet as of January 31, 2013 was $1.86

    billion, an increase of 35% on a year-over-year basis. Current deferred revenue increased by 39%

    year-over-year to $1.80 billion, benefited in part by longer invoice durations.

    I am not sure I understand this statement.
    If we are talking of Current Deferred Revenue, I interpret that to mean ‘less than one year’.
    However you say it benefited in part by longer invoice durations.

    There appears to be a contradiction here. Current Deferred Revenue CANNOT benefit from longer invoice
    durations as the definition of current is less than 1 year.

    Please explain, you can email me on xxxxxxxx

    Thanks and keep up the good work!!
    May 15 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
    def rev for 4q F13 (jan 13):
    "Deferred Revenue: Deferred revenue on the balance sheet as of January 31, 2013 was $1.86
    billion, an increase of 35% on a year-over-year basis. Current deferred revenue increased by 39%
    year-over-year to $1.80 billion, benefited in part by longer invoice durations."

    They are still playing games with increasing the invoice duration to get the 35% def rev growth. They mentioned signing a multi-year contract - that probably explains it.

    I wager on a qoq basis def rev will be very anemic in the coming april quarter, reflecting this.

    But the street just cant get enuf....
    May 15 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
    @Doyle, hi! I thought they changed the terms of deferred revenue to 2 yrs from 1 yr in the Jan 12 Qtr inclusive. So the first time it was apples to apples was Jan 13, for a real YOY comparison. Am I wrong?
    May 14 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
    Or Salesfarce.com
    May 14 04:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos Is Shorting Seagate, Should You? [View article]
    both stx and wdc are operating at 98% cap utilisation at the moment, 3yrs after flood. Read the transcripts.
    As for Chanos's accusation that STX inflated cashflow via the goodwill created on the Samsung acquisition, I'd love to see him TRY and substantiate that statement.
    May 13 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital: The New Paradigm Unfolds [View article]
    TheGreatOne S&P and indeed all the large brokerages (Citi to name one) have appalling track records in this sector. Not sure why they get it so wrong (they focus on trading volumes not targets?), but Luczo the CEO of Seagate ranted about this very point in a recent Forbes article
    May 13 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos Is Shorting Seagate, Should You? [View article]
    Interesting dig into the detail

    However:
    The large hump in sales/work in progress in 2011 is their acquisition of Samsung's HDD business. That's why the numbers were distorted, but have now stabilised.

    Red Herring I'm afraid

    Disc Long WDC
    May 13 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HAMR Will Make Seagate One Of The Best Tech Plays With Significant Upside [View article]
    $WDC $STX Chanos already burning on his short and will capitulate in due course. His 'thesis' on the short, listed in Barrons, depicts a scatter gun blasting away in desperation. He even suggests accounting fraud at STX....

    Good article Andy
    May 12 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is More To Nokia Than You Might Think [View article]
    @same1234 Thanks for timely information - very helpful! My interpretation of your data is that 80-100 Lumia 520 sold per day from that one store.

    That sounds very small.

    Do you have an idea how one could extrapolate these figures to get an estimate for China as a whole....

    thanks
    May 11 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix Shareholders Are Getting A Raw Deal [View article]
    Despite empathising with Raina's frustrations on the stream of rumour mongering by the shorts, (aided by Bloomberg and their unidentified sources 'with close knowledge of the matter'), the takeout price is a huge disservice to the company's long suffering loyal investors.

    Raina may be justified in taking it private, but this is one helluva kick in the teeth as a parting gesture to his loyal supporters.

    Maybe, just maybe, he wont receive a majority shareholder approval of the merger. He certainly wont recieve mine.
    May 9 12:51 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
    "As you can see in the below diagram, Microsoft has multiple sources of income, and WP doesn't really bring in any noticeable income."

    Are you for real? Just cos it doesn't bring in current income it should be neglected by MSFT?? WP8 on smartphones is their last stand to prevent being further marginalised as PC's fade.

    MSFT will do EVERYTHING to ensure WP8 is the third viable and common smartphone O/S
    May 7 10:08 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
    Lumia 520 already the most popular Nokia in India. And it's only been on sale for 5ísh weeks...

    http://bit.ly/169gTNy

    Just to trumpet MY foresight, quote from article above:
    "Judging by the initial reception of the Lumia 520 in emerging markets, it could easily be the bestselling smartphone in 2014."

    hat tip: @knowitall
    May 5 05:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC's probe of Ebix's (EBIX -5.6%) accounting has been "upgraded to a formal investigation," Bloomberg reports. That has led shares of the insurance software firm to tumble to $19.44, 2.8% below Goldman's $20/share buyout price. Bloomberg originally reported of an SEC probe back in Nov.; CEO Robin Raina responded by calling the report "inaccurate and misleading." SA contributor Gotham City Research has been quite critical of Ebix's accounting (also to Raina's displeasure). [View news story]
    "That probe, consisting of interviews with former employees, has since been upgraded to a formal investigation, according to a person who was briefed on the matter after the Goldman Sachs deal was announced and who asked not to be named because the matter was confidential."

    quote from your link, the probe is not confirmed - another unidentified source. EBIX has previously denied it, and if it were formal it would have been disclosed.
    May 2 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC's probe of Ebix's (EBIX -5.6%) accounting has been "upgraded to a formal investigation," Bloomberg reports. That has led shares of the insurance software firm to tumble to $19.44, 2.8% below Goldman's $20/share buyout price. Bloomberg originally reported of an SEC probe back in Nov.; CEO Robin Raina responded by calling the report "inaccurate and misleading." SA contributor Gotham City Research has been quite critical of Ebix's accounting (also to Raina's displeasure). [View news story]
    "according to people familiar with the matter." bloomberg reports. This is still not conclusive and Ebix has to date rejected the claim it is being investigated by SEC.
    May 2 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
507 Comments
384 Likes