Sunil Shah

Long/short equity, value
Sunil Shah
Long/short equity, value
Contributor since: 2008
Company: searching . . . for the oracle in troubled times
$EBIX This is why CSC was so desperate to get hold of XCH: their organic growth prospects are deteriorating rapidly. NO such fear for EBIX!! Sooo glad Ebix walked away...
Shares of Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE:CSC) tanked on Wednesday, down by 12% as of 1:37 p.m. EST, after the company reported mixed earnings results.
So what: Revenue in the fiscal third quarter came in at $1.75 billion, down 10% from a year ago.
@stutatixie,
fyi First Trust is not a new shareholder but added significantly recently.
Is Sept 15 they had 923K shares, now they own 1.3m. So added 400,000 in the 4Q.
P2P Capital Partners is the new big institution; added 1.7m in the 3q 15. Still to disclose dec 15 position....
This is the reason I am very positive: increased institutional ownership.
With all the capital that could have been raised for XCH, (probably 200m additional debt) EBIX could really step up on their share repurchase program, now that XCH is behind us.
@Cparmelee
small English Lesson. Meaning of conjecture:
"In mathematics, a conjecture is a conclusion or proposition based on incomplete information, but for which no proof has been found."
Did I state an outcome with 100% certainty? No.
So your statement would not be conjecture, but entirely false.
$TSLA. @always dubious, I totally agree. This is all pure conjecture until we know how many shares have been pledged as the % of shares Musk owns. There will be no margin call or forced liquidation is he has ample more to pledge.
So this article is basically useless until we know the numbers.
$EBIX. Deadline of 6 Feb. 5 PM GMT for counter bid for Xchanging PLC. Not the tiniest squeak from $EBIX so the deal is officially dead. What a relief!
To EBIX management: time to focus on your intrinsic opportunities, including the massive portal opened by PPL platform. Time to flex your organic muscles!!
$EBIX @theGribbler that was my understanding also, deadline of 6 Feb. 5 PM GMT. Only 3 days to go and not the tiniest squeak from $EBIX. They recently hired a new IR firm...mind boggles
author, your first point on the article is this:
CRM shares off by more than 5% today on rumors of a significant customer loss in the last quarter.
And absolutely nowhere in the entire article do you elaborate on this. Are you trying to waste people's time or am I missing something? Did you talk about your leading point somewhere?
Seeking Alpha Editors: Please correct me if the above is wrong, why would you allow such a misleading article to pass your quality control? Please don't waste your readership's time. You are devaluing the SA franchise.
$EBIX According to Insurance Day, we are in the clear! Ebix didnt make a counterbid and had until 1 Feb to do so. Not sure if this date is right, but here is the summary
Ebix out of the running in Xchanging takeover race
US firm fails to make formal bid leaving rival CSC clear in long-running saga
Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) is poised to win the battle to acquire Xchanging after rival suitor Ebix failed to table a formal bid for the back-office processing firm.
US software firm Ebix had until 5pm on January 31 to make a formal offer for Xchanging under City takeover rules, after CSC tabled a 190p per share offer on December 9.
Paulo does your graph of about 99 mb/day global supply/demand include the Canadian supply of 2.5m. I doubt it, but please clarify. If it doesnt then current oversupply is about 4mb/day not what you state.
Please respond thanks
Paulo does your graph of about 99 mb/day include the Canadian supply of 2.5m. I doubt it, but please clarify. If it doesnt then current oversupply is about 4mb/day not what you state.
Please respond thanks
$EBIX Could also be, as you suggest, their share buyback. I'm very comfortable with prospects AND share register currently. Previously some institutions were reducing/selling out, but now EVERY ONE is long term and a couple of new names recently:
-P2 Capital Partners, LLC 1,703,764 5.05 42,525,947 Sep 30, 2015 new shdr! added a lot
$EBIX @protagonist, makes perfect sense!
They have secured significant funding and since the aborted XCH deal, its best use is the purchase of EBIX shares!
Check out the institutional share register - been tracking it for years - there are some new marquee names with no obvious seller...
And lets not forget the mother of all short squeezes...
$EBIX The only stock on my screen that is positive or at least holding its own. Has the market realised XCH deal is dead ? Underlying intrinsic prospects of EBIX justify +50% upside from here in 1 yr, even in this ghastly market...
@onemoretime what's racist about 'great yellow hope' ? Please explain yourself or keep your nonsensical comments for your family
Great article Rogier, agree it's just a waiting game. Shouldnt there be a time limit for DOJ and FTC also. It seems crazy that they can just dither for this long...
From Insurance Insider, on 16 Jan:
$EBIX "Insurance software specialist Ebix will have to offer at least 209p a share to be in with a chance of buying Xchanging, after rival Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) announced that its bid was now unconditional.
CSC announced this morning (18 January) that it had received the backing of 87.05 percent of Xchanging shareholders, surpassing its original 75 percent target."
EBIX would be absolute bonkers to pursue this now. XCH WANTS to be owned by CSC and the bid price now would just be plain reckless
The development means that unless Ebix tables an alternative bid that is attractive enough to persuade some of those investors to...
So @alex are you just going to ignore my question? Very disengenous
Jan 15th was deadline for CSC to receive acceptances of 75% of XCH shares.
On Monday 17th the XCH takeover might well have been consumated...
"The first closing date of the offer from CSC is 1.00 p.m. (London time) on 15
January 2016 at which point, if it has not received acceptances from
shareholders representing at least 75 per cent. of the Xchanging shares to
which its offer relates, CSC will be entitled either to lapse its offer or to
extend the offer period. CSC's offer remains conditional on certain
regulatory and antiĀ­trust clearances."
@Alex, apparently you quietly sold your TWTR as per a message on stocktwits. Is that right? If it is, I consider that appalling behaviour, NOT cos you changed your mind, but because you dont have the spine to declare your capitulation here, where you promoted TWTR shamelessly.
see note from XCH issued today. Looks like XCH shareholders/directors representing 57% of XCH have already accepted CSC's bid. Nonetheless EBIX has until 6 Feb to make a (hostile) counter bid.
It's safe to say EBIX's megalomania is safely behind us. Let's hope RR & Co will now focus on the growth opportunity in the bag. Back to basics boys, get that blood rush outta yer system....
" On 9 December 2015, CSC announced a unanimously recommended cash
offer for Xchanging at a price of 190 pence per share. As stated in CSC's
offer document, each of the Xchanging directors holding Xchanging shares
has accepted CSC's offer in respect of his own beneficial holdings
(representing, in aggregate, approximately 0.46 per cent. of the Xchanging
shares in issue on 8 January 2016). On 23 December 2015, CSC
announced it had purchased 9.99 per cent. of Xchanging's shares from
Capita plc and therefore owns or has irrevocable undertakings, other
commitments and a letter of intent to accept its offer in respect of
141,424,246 Xchanging shares, representing approximately 57.06 per cent.
of the Xchanging shares in issue on 8 January 2016.
The first closing date of the offer from CSC is 1.00 p.m. (London time) on 15
January 2016 at which point, if it has not received acceptances from
shareholders representing at least 75 per cent. of the Xchanging shares to
which its offer relates, CSC will be entitled either to lapse its offer or to
extend the offer period. CSC's offer remains conditional on certain
regulatory and antiĀ­trust clearances."
"The Panel on Takeovers and Mergers
(the "Panel") ruled on 9 December 2015, that CSC's offer resulted in Ebix
being set a new deadline of 5.00 p.m. on 6 February 2016 (being the 53rd
day following publication of CSC's offer document) to announce a firm
intention to make an offer for Xchanging or to announce it would not make
an offer."
$EBIX Xch plc bid now only a very remote possibility. XCH board endorsed CSC bid today. Time to buy EBIX for a stellar bounce into 4q 15 and 1q 16 results. My Target is +39$ in 1yr. That's 30% plus upside from here and then some as PE expands on organic growth hike...
sorry growth is less than -50% for 1q 16 vs 4q 15. Forgot the minus sign in my bet above.
That's my bet for Denmark, which would indicate this article is entirely wrong in claiming Denmark 4q was GENUINE CONSUMER DEMAND, UNTAINTED by pulling forward sales.
@mark I await your response.
@renim By any metric this is growth company. If QoQ growth (for 2 consecutive qtrs) is < 50% (my bet above) then clearly TSLA does not qualify as a growth company, and there has been substantial pull forward of deliveries predicated by the tax hike in Denmark.
It follows this article is plain wrong, misguided and biased.
So @mark are you willing to take my wager or not?
I await your erudition
@Mark Hibben, forget withdrawing your article. Will you come out and admit you were plain wrong, misguided and biased?
I'm willing to bet 1q '16 Tesla S deliveries in Denmark will be less than 900.
So if its above 900 you win. If it's below I do.
And either way, one of us comes out and admits he was plain wrong, misguided and biased.
Do we have a bet?
@Mark Hibben From Bloomberg on elimination of tax break:
"Phasing out tax breaks on electric cars means the price of a Tesla Model S is set to increase from about 650,000 kroner ($97,665) to around 1.8 million kroner."
So if in 1q '16 your Tesla was going to cost 20,000$ more (20 %), WOULD YOU OR WOULD YOU NOT pull forward your order into 4q '15.
We dont know the split between flippers and genuine buyers, but ITS IRRELEVANT! IT'S DEMAND PULLED FORWARD!!
@Mark Hibben, what dont you understand about this?
Who wants to bet that 1q 16 Tesla demand from Denmark collapses....I do
@The Frank I dont think you understand the underlying logic
I find the logic here very perverse. If taxes are going up, then a buyer will pull forward his order to avoid the tax hike. THAT is the primary consequence. Of course this will pull forward demand into the quarter.
But the author goes through a convoluted argument that the buyers have all become arbitrageurs seeking to make a profit on the tax hike. That this would not pull forward demand, but create a natural arbitrageur which will prevail in the future. It's as funny as it's absurd.
My gawd Bulls are really pulling at straws.
$VRX The VRX strategy will essentially remain unchanged. Ex CFO is well groomed to step in on an interim basis, and Pearson will be back. Notions of 'new brooms sweeping clean' are absurd. BUY
$TSLA the bullish note by Trip Chowdry was way off LOL.

5% DOWN ON MONDAY? This barely scraped the low end of forecast made 3 months ago. Hardly inspires confidence for a growth stock

The comedian Trip:
"Factoring in two weeks of extreme slowness (at the beginning of Q4) and extremely high delivery activity in the last 45 days," Chowdhry told IBD, he's confident that "deliveries are ahead of the midpoint, we are saying, probably around 18,300 (for Q4), ahead of the midpoint of (Tesla's) guidance of between 17,000 and 19,000 deliveries."
$TSLA the bullish note by Comedian Trip Chowdry was way off LOL.
5% DOWN ON MONDAY?
The comedian Trip:
"Factoring in two weeks of extreme slowness (at the beginning of Q4) and extremely high delivery activity in the last 45 days," Chowdhry told IBD, he's confident that "deliveries are ahead of the midpoint, we are saying, probably around 18,300 (for Q4), ahead of the midpoint of (Tesla's) guidance of between 17,000 and 19,000 deliveries."
great article. if you have a graph of online sales as a %age of retail sales for the US, please post the data. I believe online is still a mere 10% of retail overall - how has this grown over the last say 5 years.
thank you!
Heard her on some CC's. What a clown. Trying sooo hard to sound impressive that it's embarassing
$EBIX CSC complains to Takeover Panel about unfair/irregular time extension for Ebix bid
"Under takeover panel rules, potential acquirers or suitors are required to make an offer or back out within four weeks of publicly announcing their interest. Thus, according to the rules, both Ebix and CSC were required to make a formal offer or walk away for six months on December 9, 2015. Though CSC made its offer, Ebix was granted more time to reconsider its final offer, which annoyed CSC, who is now pursuing a hearing with the takeover panel regarding Ebix."
I really hope this thwarts Ebix's acquisition attempt. Bid price would not have to bebhigher than 70% of Ebix market cap!! Madness because Ebix prospects are better than ever before -WITHOUT XCH!!