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Sunil Shah  

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  • Vemma Shutdown And Herbalife: The Apple Doesn't Fall Far From The Board Room [View article]
    As far as I recall, the FTC charge against Vemma was based on 2013 and 2014 evidence of misrepresentation.

    And is HLF still using the 2009 material you present? Very much doubt it...
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vemma Shutdown And Herbalife: The Apple Doesn't Fall Far From The Board Room [View article]
    Despite numerous opportunities in the past 35!! years HLF is still legal and functioning. The regulatory authorities would never accept they have erred so egregiously in the past.

    But they might concede current practices are misrepresentative and a violation.

    Now do you see? There is a legacy of negligence by the law that needs to be circumvented without them losing face
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vemma Shutdown And Herbalife: The Apple Doesn't Fall Far From The Board Room [View article]
    Judicious,
    I believe your efforts to show the historic infractions and misrepresantations are misdirected. HLF can always claim NOW it has changed its ways - reaching back to 2009 aint gonna cut it!

    You need to show how current practices are a misrepresentation of the HLF opportunity. That's why the current income distribution from current associates is the key.

    Time for you to dig sum more....
    Aug 28, 2015. 01:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ramey Rebuttal: Herbalife Is A Culprit Just Like Vemma [View article]
    Lending, as far as I know Matt is not posing as a ' professional' analyst whereas Ramey is. It follows Matt doesnt have as much (ie his career) at stake...
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Markets, Over Confidence And The Macro Delusion! [View article]
    Great article, detailing the mass delusion, fuelled and promoted by Wall Street. As an investor in listed companies today the lesson is clear: minute changes in MAU growth rates or declining credibility in the future presence of a name have ENORMOUS consequences. You just have to extrapolate forward....

    That's why a new Twitter CEO (even if a 'triumvirate' is summoned) is missing the entire point. MAU's are stagnant and about to decline. DAU are already heading south. Twitter's hopes of retaining a presence or credible slice of the future online market should have been drastically cut since the last CC.

    On GAAP it's losing buckets. It will continue to lose buckets. The only straw of hope is a megalomaniac buyout, and alas, that cant be ignored.

    With this exception a valuation of $2-5 bn for TWTR (cf 17bn today) seems about appropriate. And gawd help the suitor (litigation) if there is this buyout.
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ramey Rebuttal: Herbalife Is A Culprit Just Like Vemma [View article]
    Ramey has no choice but to pump it higher - he knows his career would be powdered to a pulp if/when HLF collapses.

    Hence he has no choice but to keep pushing it up (despite no increase in eps estimates!)
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTC puts halt to Vemma, alleging pyramid scheme [View news story]
    powershake, that's probably why HLF isnt down 10-20%.
    watch this news leak out en masse and you'll need more than your formula 1 shake....
    Aug 26, 2015. 02:43 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTC puts halt to Vemma, alleging pyramid scheme [View news story]
    HLF claimed in 2013 as a valid defence, that 73% join HLF to consume product personally. This got them their reprieve.

    Well if plaintiff can prove that other 27% joined to earn an income and were disappointed, (ie the final verdict posted above for vemma) then it's a slam dunk. This is groundbreaking news.

    Despite all the fudge and political muscle HLF can muster.
    Aug 26, 2015. 02:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTC puts halt to Vemma, alleging pyramid scheme [View news story]
    from FTC statement on Vemma: "The vast majority of participants make no money, and most of them lose money."

    Could there be a clearer indictment for HLF. This is precisely the predicament of 99% of HLF associates.I believe this statement overrules all else: the end outcome, abstracting for all the fudge
    Aug 26, 2015. 02:02 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTC puts halt to Vemma, alleging pyramid scheme [View news story]
    why isnt HLF down 10-20%?? same promises of riches to 'affiliates', same absence of training, same focus on recruitment for income to 'affiliates. It should have been hit hard by this....
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Twitter Go? [View article]
    Time for those companies to snatch the 'bargain' dont you think?
    Yet I hear no bids...
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check: Periscope, Twitter In General Just Aren't That Great [View article]
    Good article, although I would like to see more content on WHY it isnt that great.

    IMO as an old-school investor (cf a trendy young kid who embodies the future)

    NOW is when investors will start assessing the prospects of real cash flow and earnings that might accrue to shareholders. TWTR doesn't know what it is, let alone trying to explain their raison d'etre to investors!

    This is the canary in the goldmine; try a sober appraisal of TWTR's GAAP earnings in 5 years, incorporating their current plight.

    With the exception of a crazy buyout (entirely possible) TWTR's shareprice could halve again...and then again.
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter overhauls mobile ad platform; shares -4.8% due to tech selloff (updated) [View news story]
    NOW is when investors will start assessing the prospects of real cash flow and earnings that might accrue to shareholders. TWTR doesn't know what it is, let alone trying to explain their raison d'etre to investors!

    This is the canary in the goldmine; try a sober appraisal of TWTR's GAAP earnings in 5 years, incorporating their current plight.

    With the exception of a crazy buyout (entirely possible) TWTR's shareprice could halve again...and then again.
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even A Former Twitter Bear Appreciates Its Attractive Valuation [View article]
    Pim for 2016 sales you are assuming 45% growth from 2.2 bn from 2015 (which itself is an ambitious target given management's most recent bearish comments).

    There is no way they will increase revenue by 45% when MAUs have stagnated and might even decline! SMS fast followers are certainly not 'monetizeable'

    Using 2.2bn as 12m forward sales and assuming a ceiling of 6X Sales (generous for disputable growth credentials and current loss on GAAP) one arrives at a mkt valuation of $13.2bn or 28% lower than current price of $27.

    Would appreciate your disagreements to this valuation

    thanks
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Twitter Go? [View article]
    "Even more importantly, the company guided to 2015 revenue at the least, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.2 billion."

    With a mkt cap of 18.2 bn (at current price of 27$). I get a forward Price to Sales ratio of 8.2 X

    Yet your chart shows 5.3X

    IMO no one will be interested at more than 5X (cf 8.2X), and that is a generous multiple for a 'growth stock in question' implying 40% downside from here.
    Aug 8, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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