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Sunil Shah

 
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  • Salesforce.com Earnings Call: Is The Lovefest Over? [View article]
    Up and up and up in a vacuum of underlying profitability.
    Bit like...Bit like a faddish designer label that fluked the right colour/cut for one season.
    CRM longs have won hands down I grant you that...for now
    May 26, 2013. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Earnings Call: Is The Lovefest Over? [View article]
    Shorted for a while, at my uncomfortable expense!
    Have often felt like giving up on the short, but simply cant as it would negate a fundamental core belief in rational markets.

    So I remain a stubborn ol fool...

    To paraphrase Keynes, markets CANT remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent in the age of credit. ha ha
    May 26, 2013. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Earnings Call: Is The Lovefest Over? [View article]
    $CRM Eureka! On the detailed disclosure of cashflow there is an item. "Deferred Commission" which is an adjustment from the P&L loss to arrive at operating cashflow.ie cashflow items that didn't hit the P&L.

    This cashflow adjustment reflects the deferred commission paid to employees for future sales (ie deferred revenue). It's a reflection of a movement in a balance sheet asset (def commission paid but relating to future P &L periods).

    Hence the movement in this balance sheet asset is a very important barometer. If it rises a lot it means lots of sales are secured in the pipeline. If it rises a little not much....

    For the April 13 Quarter, this figure was $17.5m which IS THE LOWEST NUMBER SINCE APRIL 2009! (For the Jan 13 qtr it was $117m!)


    TO PROVE ITS NOT SEASONAL, THE EQUIVALENT FIGURE WAS $32.1M in April 12.

    This proves, almost irrefutably we are going to see a marked slowdown in coming quarters in billings (revenue and deferred revenue).

    Mark this post!
    May 26, 2013. 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Earnings Call: Is The Lovefest Over? [View article]
    Regarding future deceleration, the deferred commission on the balance sheet is a great guide: this represents commission due to employees for sales secured. It fell from $142m to $119.5m from January to April, a QOQ contraction of 16%. I'm bewildered as to why most "analysts" haven't highlighted this - last year(april vs jan 2012) the QOQ change was flat, and so it's a lot more than seasonality.

    One can only wonder....
    May 26, 2013. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Earnings Call: Is The Lovefest Over? [View article]
    @C.N please post link to Greylock Partners that you are referring to. thanks
    May 25, 2013. 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is How Much Nokia Made From Patents Last Year [View article]
    Jacob, from their 1Q 2013 report:
    "Within Devices & Services Other, we estimate that our current annual IPR income run-rate is approximately EUR 0.5 billion (US$ 0.65 billion)."

    I believe they underbooked IPR income in the 1q, but when asked directly by an analyst on the CC, they didnt answer.

    Q from UBS analyst:

    "And secondly, just a follow-up on what Kai mentioned. I just wonder, if you give us the run rate of your intellectual property revenues in terms of royalties and what the run rate in the quarter was."

    The CFO's answer:
    ".... And then, what comes to the IP royalty question, so we have said that we expect to have approximately EUR500 million of annual IPR income on our Devices & Services business, so that is really what we have said on the topic, and I have nothing further to add on that."

    The subject needs to be clarified though, and during the CC they didnt - I believe they underbooked IPR income, no idea why
    May 20, 2013. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Valuation: Earnings Expectations Versus Reality [View article]
    Great in-depth article with lots of referencing. Your hard work is appreciated!

    $MSFT is certainly getting some bids of recent, despite the 14% decline in global PC shipments in 1Q 13. Can you pls elaborate on how you add back R&D to invested capital ie do you do it YOY from their annual reports or how...

    I saw on a 5 yr view, MSFT has almost exactly tracked the S&P return. I wonder if it will outperform from hereon...

    well done again
    May 17, 2013. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
    I've tried to find out more from CRM's IR team, this query still not answered. (you might find it amusing)

    Hello IR at Salesforce.
    I am an investor in Salesforce, shares held via Schwab, and paste this from your F13 release:
    Date feb 28 2013, when you posted your 4q 13 and full year results.


    Deferred Revenue: Deferred revenue on the balance sheet as of January 31, 2013 was $1.86

    billion, an increase of 35% on a year-over-year basis. Current deferred revenue increased by 39%

    year-over-year to $1.80 billion, benefited in part by longer invoice durations.

    I am not sure I understand this statement.
    If we are talking of Current Deferred Revenue, I interpret that to mean ‘less than one year’.
    However you say it benefited in part by longer invoice durations.

    There appears to be a contradiction here. Current Deferred Revenue CANNOT benefit from longer invoice
    durations as the definition of current is less than 1 year.

    Please explain, you can email me on xxxxxxxx

    Thanks and keep up the good work!!
    May 15, 2013. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
    def rev for 4q F13 (jan 13):
    "Deferred Revenue: Deferred revenue on the balance sheet as of January 31, 2013 was $1.86
    billion, an increase of 35% on a year-over-year basis. Current deferred revenue increased by 39%
    year-over-year to $1.80 billion, benefited in part by longer invoice durations."

    They are still playing games with increasing the invoice duration to get the 35% def rev growth. They mentioned signing a multi-year contract - that probably explains it.

    I wager on a qoq basis def rev will be very anemic in the coming april quarter, reflecting this.

    But the street just cant get enuf....
    May 15, 2013. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
    @Doyle, hi! I thought they changed the terms of deferred revenue to 2 yrs from 1 yr in the Jan 12 Qtr inclusive. So the first time it was apples to apples was Jan 13, for a real YOY comparison. Am I wrong?
    May 14, 2013. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com May Be Selling You - Buyer Beware [View article]
    Or Salesfarce.com
    May 14, 2013. 04:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos Is Shorting Seagate, Should You? [View article]
    both stx and wdc are operating at 98% cap utilisation at the moment, 3yrs after flood. Read the transcripts.
    As for Chanos's accusation that STX inflated cashflow via the goodwill created on the Samsung acquisition, I'd love to see him TRY and substantiate that statement.
    May 13, 2013. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Digital: The New Paradigm Unfolds [View article]
    TheGreatOne S&P and indeed all the large brokerages (Citi to name one) have appalling track records in this sector. Not sure why they get it so wrong (they focus on trading volumes not targets?), but Luczo the CEO of Seagate ranted about this very point in a recent Forbes article
    May 13, 2013. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos Is Shorting Seagate, Should You? [View article]
    Interesting dig into the detail

    However:
    The large hump in sales/work in progress in 2011 is their acquisition of Samsung's HDD business. That's why the numbers were distorted, but have now stabilised.

    Red Herring I'm afraid

    Disc Long WDC
    May 13, 2013. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HAMR Will Make Seagate One Of The Best Tech Plays With Significant Upside [View article]
    $WDC $STX Chanos already burning on his short and will capitulate in due course. His 'thesis' on the short, listed in Barrons, depicts a scatter gun blasting away in desperation. He even suggests accounting fraud at STX....

    Good article Andy
    May 12, 2013. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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